Tasmania set to apply for a provisional AFL licence (aiming to enter competition by 2025)

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madmug

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Where I get my information?

I told you the source.

Bureau of Statistics & Tasmanian Government.
Given the pandemic & the economic disaster, you can forget the ABS projections. Especially seeing Vic is the worst hit economy. Some 80k job losses per year for 5 years is what I saw mentioned.

I hope this isn't correct, but even if substantially true, the ability to support 10 teams in Vic & a couple of the new interstate ventures must come into question.

TV money must come under pressure & as will club sponsorship.

This is not a good position for the AFL. nor AR in general.

Cutting costs is the name of the game, We'll see a row for the finite money available between AFLPA & all the other areas the AFL currently operate in.
 

The_Reaper

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Given the pandemic & the economic disaster, you can forget the ABS projections. Especially seeing Vic is the worst hit economy. Some 80k job losses per year for 5 years is what I saw mentioned.

I hope this isn't correct, but even if substantially true, the ability to support 10 teams in Vic & a couple of the new interstate ventures must come into question.

TV money must come under pressure & as will club sponsorship.

This is not a good position for the AFL. nor AR in general.

Cutting costs is the name of the game, We'll see a row for the finite money available between AFLPA & all the other areas the AFL currently operate in.
Which makes expansion even less likely than before.

Any new team will need to be entirely self sufficient.
 

telsor

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Which makes expansion even less likely than before.

Any new team will need to be entirely self sufficient.
Including putting new more money into the AFL than they take out in distribution.

A (forced) relocation might be more likely than before, but given our Tas friends are adamant that it's their way or not at all....not at all seems more likely.
 

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madmug

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Including putting new more money into the AFL than they take out in distribution.

A (forced) relocation might be more likely than before, but given our Tas friends are adamant that it's their way or not at all....not at all seems more likely.
We already put more money into the AFL than receive back. At least up until 2019. The AFL have gutted AFLtas. They've killed the NEAFL. The TSL may yet be culled. If that occurs I hope Tas Gov just cut NMFC & HFC lose. Let them fend for themselves.

Anyway Its a whole new ball game. Quoting projections based on pre covid estimates is a waste of time. The second wave in Victoria has made a mess of the states finances, it could yet become a 3rd wave. Other states could succumb again at some stage. One only has to look at the last really severe world wide pandemics to see this.

Despite populist politicians, their is no guarantee of an effective vaccine anytime soon, if ever. We're writing the rules & changing expectations as we move forward. That even includes the survival of the current AFL structure.

Yes a 'survival' relocation could yet happen. Personally I think it'd be better if it got to that stage, that any club in question should leave the AFL, of just fold.

Hopefully none of this happens. But don't kid yourself that it couldn't.
 

telsor

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We already put more money into the AFL than receive back. At least up until 2019. The AFL have gutted AFLtas. They've killed the NEAFL. The TSL may yet be culled. If that occurs I hope Tas Gov just cut NMFC & HFC lose. Let them fend for themselves.

Anyway Its a whole new ball game. Quoting projections based on pre covid estimates is a waste of time. The second wave in Victoria has made a mess of the states finances, it could yet become a 3rd wave. Other states could succumb again at some stage. One only has to look at the last really severe world wide pandemics to see this.

Despite populist politicians, their is no guarantee of an effective vaccine anytime soon, if ever. We're writing the rules & changing expectations as we move forward. That even includes the survival of the current AFL structure.

Yes a 'survival' relocation could yet happen. Personally I think it'd be better if it got to that stage, that any club in question should leave the AFL, of just fold.

Hopefully none of this happens. But don't kid yourself that it couldn't.
You also get more money than you put in...(economic benefits, etc.) but the point is that if you had a team, would you still put in more than you take out? What was it, about $16M/year you expect from the AFL on top of what you get now? How are you going to put that much MORE into the AFL?

Agree it's a new ball game, but long term trends that have been going on since federation (Tas pop & economy shrinking in relative terms) are unlikely to suddenly do a 180, indeed, to go by historical precedents, the regional areas tend to be the ones who draw the short straw during such periods. Rightly or wrongly, the 'benefits' tend to go with the money/votes, and thus the bigger cities get bigger (I personally don't think that's ideal, but it is how things tend to go).

So while much could change, I wouldn't hold your breath about Tas being on the winning side of how things will end up.
 

madmug

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You also get more money than you put in...(economic benefits, etc.) but the point is that if you had a team, would you still put in more than you take out? What was it, about $16M/year you expect from the AFL on top of what you get now? How are you going to put that much MORE into the AFL?

Agree it's a new ball game, but long term trends that have been going on since federation (Tas pop & economy shrinking in relative terms) are unlikely to suddenly do a 180, indeed, to go by historical precedents, the regional areas tend to be the ones who draw the short straw during such periods. Rightly or wrongly, the 'benefits' tend to go with the money/votes, and thus the bigger cities get bigger (I personally don't think that's ideal, but it is how things tend to go).

So while much could change, I wouldn't hold your breath about Tas being on the winning side of how things will end up.
 

madmug

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Winning side? Dear oh dear!

Nobody is winning. Certainly not Victoria anyway, the home of the AFL.

That's not good for any of us, especially for us in the game of AR.
 

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BringBackTorps

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1. The AFL employs 40 staff for the NT, but only 29 for Tasmania- despite Tasmania having 130+% more population; & Tasmania's gold mine (previously) of champions & stars vastly (20-1, or more?) outnumbering (in quality & quantity) NT recruits into the VFL/AFL.
And this is also despite soccer & basketball regd. player nos. BOOMING in Tasmania, at record highs. Male regd. GR AF club nos. are in decline in neglected Tasmania, which suffers from the huge disadvantage of demoralised GR, & not having its own team & tribalism, & inadequate elite pathways.

Tasmanian soccer officials have falsely claimed in its last Annual Report it has more regd. participants than AF in Tasmania. The NBL is predicting an imminent further GR boom in Tasmania, with its own team in 2021.

The AFL spends $115m pa on its staff...lots of little piggies going to the trough.

"Not even Club Presidents are privy to the information"...you couldn't make this stuff up!



2. The biggest AFL con, however, was unique to the AFL in team professional sport, anywhere in the world.
Until recently, AFL Club Football Departments (not including player wages) spent more on Football Department staff costs (ie coaches, army of assistant coaches, welfare workers, psychologists, other hangers-on etc.) than was spent on player wages!
This extravagance was for all teams in the competition... & we all know the effect of these brilliant coaching teams have had on the on-field aesthetics of AFL matches; & implementation (not) of the AFL's own Charter Of The Game guidelines.

Defenders of the AFL could make the accurate claim, as partial justification for this monumental waste & greed, that the AFL is achieving strong growth (since 2012) in GR AF in NSW, ACT (where it was the dominant sport up to c. 1985), & Qld.


The AFL HQ in Melb. employs 795 staff (before A. Demetriou took over, it was c.100).

For the full Herald Sun article, & details of AFL HQ spending (which the AFL previously kept secret), see this link

(go to post#1)


This is the AFL's Charter Of The Game.

(See pg 5).

The AFL has, arguably, wasted $1b+, when one considers the vast, wasteful expenditure of AFL HQ & Club Football Departments since 2005. They have been ignominious failures in achieving the principles enunciated in their own Charter.
 
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robbieando

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This is the AFL's Charter Of The Game.

(See pg 5).

The AFL has, arguably, wasted $1b+, when one considers the vast, wasteful expenditure of AFL HQ & Club Football Departments. They have been ignominious failures in achieving the principles enunciated in their own Charter.
The Charter of the Game is only a set of guiding principles for the Laws of the Game Committee to work with when they look to introduce new rules (or change existing ones) that may effect core elements of the game.

It is not a governing document, nor is it an instruction for how clubs should play the game as you seem to think it is. It also isn't a document that sets out how the AFL or the clubs should spend their money or even how to develop the code.
 

madmug

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The Charter of the Game is only a set of guiding principles for the Laws of the Game Committee to work with when they look to introduce new rules (or change existing ones) that may effect core elements of the game.

It is not a governing document, nor is it an instruction for how clubs should play the game as you seem to think it is. It also isn't a document that sets out how the AFL or the clubs should spend their money or even how to develop the code.
Be that as it may. The AFL has shown itself to be a disgracefully profligate 'not for profit' sports organisation.

There could be any amount of good they could have done with so much of the monies spent on HQ.

They deserve derision & scorn over such waste. Community footy is struggling in so many areas, yet they pump up HQ. So much for the 'keepers' of the game. More like the 'keepers' of as much cash as they can stuff in their greedy pockets.
 

Gibbke

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Just facts and logic....The funny part is how they're supposedly so obviously wrong, but nobody can actually show how.
I've backed your stance many times in the past, from the point of view that such opinions keep those backing a Tasmanian team honest through devil's advocacy...

But we're not wrong and you have been shown repeatedly why. Those backing the team are supported by heavyweight financial and football experts, to the extent that the AFL itself stopped treating the bid as a joke and were forced to adopt a much more respectful position - an impressive feat in itself, because there's not much that can force the AFL to change its tune on anything when it doesn't want to. You then go back to generalised stats about pop growth and that's all you've got...numbers which can draw a number of conflicting and sometimes irrelevant conclusions...remember, an AFL side does not need to be backed by only local sponsors, and the players don't have to be home grown either...

Hint - if you want to bag the bid, the only factor which you'll win with is the inability of Tas to augment tv rights in a metro market, the single biggest factor in any football finance discussion and the one thing we can't overcome. You lose with everything else.
 

madmug

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I've backed your stance many times in the past, from the point of view that such opinions keep those backing a Tasmanian team honest through devil's advocacy...

But we're not wrong and you have been shown repeatedly why. Those backing the team are supported by heavyweight financial and football experts, to the extent that the AFL itself stopped treating the bid as a joke and were forced to adopt a much more respectful position - an impressive feat in itself, because there's not much that can force the AFL to change its tune on anything when it doesn't want to. You then go back to generalised stats about pop growth and that's all you've got...numbers which can draw a number of conflicting and sometimes irrelevant conclusions...remember, an AFL side does not need to be backed by only local sponsors, and the players don't have to be home grown either...

Hint - if you want to bag the bid, the only factor which you'll win with is the inability of Tas to augment tv rights in a metro market, the single biggest factor in any football finance discussion and the one thing we can't overcome. You lose with everything else.
Correct.

The current & foreseeable situation is for a tightening up of monies from sponsors, TV rights & just about everything else.

The 'wikileaks' ( ;) ) expose' on the bloated ADF HQ was shocking. It shows the corporate greed mentality thats come at the expense of the game itself.

The AFL will have its hands full, not only with the 'expansion' clubs, but some of the 'home world' clubs with very shaky finances. ie The ability of Port Philip bay to support 10 clubs will come into sharp question. The Vic economy is very much population growth orientated. That has come to an abrupt halt. It will take many years to recover. If it ever regains its momentum.

The VFL once survived by ripping money out of SA & WA. I wonder where they'll try & rip it from next? Maybe they'll start to run the game properly & dump the marketing 'Gurus' & Corporate suits. That'd be a good start. Pushing a club or two out of Melbourne? Hmmmmm.

From a Tas POV, I'd dump Hawthorn & North. Let them stew in Melbourne. No skin off our nose. Maybe rattle some tins?
 

Johnny Bananas

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The Vic economy is very much population growth orientated. That has come to an abrupt halt. It will take many years to recover. If it ever regains its momentum.
The entire nation's economy is very much population growth orientated. Were it not for immigration, we'd have been in a recession long before Covid. The halt on population growth has at least reduced the immense strain on services and housing in Victoria for the moment, giving the government and the construction industry time to build the infrastructure required to support future growth. So I reckon once Covid is over they'll be able to return to its previous level of population growth pretty quickly. If they don't, there's going to be many more parties besides the AFL and Victoria that are going to have big problems.
 

madmug

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The entire nation's economy is very much population growth orientated. Were it not for immigration, we'd have been in a recession long before Covid. The halt on population growth has at least reduced the immense strain on services and housing in Victoria for the moment, giving the government and the construction industry time to build the infrastructure required to support future growth. So I reckon once Covid is over they'll be able to return to its previous level of population growth pretty quickly. If they don't, there's going to be many more parties besides the AFL and Victoria that are going to have big problems.
Victoria was number one. Thus it will suffer disproportionately. The halt will also halt the building industry. More jobs lost.

The world is still in the middle of this thing. cite Europe's 2nd wave. So It won't be over for a number of years in so far as international migration, students & tourists are concerned. The recovery after that will be slow.

Given the economic damage & the situation with China, it may take a decade or more for Australia to recover/rebuild.
 
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Rob

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The entire nation's economy is very much population growth orientated. Were it not for immigration, we'd have been in a recession long before Covid. The halt on population growth has at least reduced the immense strain on services and housing in Victoria for the moment, giving the government and the construction industry time to build the infrastructure required to support future growth. So I reckon once Covid is over they'll be able to return to its previous level of population growth pretty quickly. If they don't, there's going to be many more parties besides the AFL and Victoria that are going to have big problems.
True, but that's because Australia is such a desirable place to live compared to most of the rest of the world. So we have huge demand for people to come here and we have the luxury of cherry picking people that will add to the economy (i.e the educated young and middle aged).

I can't really see that changing post-covid. But that doesn't necessarily mean that Victoria will be the beneficiary, as people tend to follow the jobs - we saw that in WA, which had a growth rate of 3% during the mining boom, and as soon as mining industry capex dried up that growth rate dropped to close to 1%. If the Vic economy suffers, their population will too.
 

madmug

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True, but that's because Australia is such a desirable place to live compared to most of the rest of the world. So we have huge demand for people to come here and we have the luxury of cherry picking people that will add to the economy (i.e the educated young and middle aged).

I can't really see that changing post-covid. But that doesn't necessarily mean that Victoria will be the beneficiary, as people tend to follow the jobs - we saw that in WA, which had a growth rate of 3% during the mining boom, and as soon as mining industry capex dried up that growth rate dropped to close to 1%. If the Vic economy suffers, their population will too.
Yes, true.

Their is talk of an increasing number of people seeking a tree/sea change.

Given the huge number of people who have been working from home, its not just the retiree types who are looking for a change. I mean why bust your gerbels trying to pay off a $900k house in Sydney or Melbn, when you can pay 1/2 that in regional areas & still work on line. Its becoming a more attractive proposition than ever before.

Its about the severe economic shock causing massive social change. Its really only just beginning.
 

Johnny Bananas

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I can't really see that changing post-covid. But that doesn't necessarily mean that Victoria will be the beneficiary, as people tend to follow the jobs - we saw that in WA, which had a growth rate of 3% during the mining boom, and as soon as mining industry capex dried up that growth rate dropped to close to 1%. If the Vic economy suffers, their population will too.
In that case it comes back to the two-speed economy and which direction it ends up pulling in. I don't see any massive international building boom on par with China's between 2004 and 2014 on the horizon, so I reckon trends will continue to favour the eastern states. If that's the case, I can't see a situation where Melbourne isn't doing well once Covid is over, because of how well the healthcare and education sectors were doing prior to Covid.

Note that every state bit the dust this year, not just Victoria.

12426380-16x9-large.png


Yes, true.

Their is talk of an increasing number of people seeking a tree/sea change.

Given the huge number of people who have been working from home, its not just the retiree types who are looking for a change. I mean why bust your gerbels trying to pay off a $900k house in Sydney or Melbn, when you can pay 1/2 that in regional areas & still work on line. Its becoming a more attractive proposition than ever before.

Its about the severe economic shock causing massive social change. Its really only just beginning.
It's just that, talk. The sea change argument has been ballyhooed for decades now but has only really applied to retirees. The reality is, people continue to live in cities due to the availability of services, facilities and jobs. The biggest employment growth industries, healthcare and education, might have some services being offered online, but there's no way they're going entirely online in the short to medium term.
 

madmug

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In that case it comes back to the two-speed economy and which direction it ends up pulling in. I don't see any massive international building boom on par with China's between 2004 and 2014 on the horizon, so I reckon trends will continue to favour the eastern states. If that's the case, I can't see a situation where Melbourne isn't doing well once Covid is over, because of how well the healthcare and education sectors were doing prior to Covid.

Note that every state bit the dust this year, not just Victoria.

View attachment 965406


It's just that, talk. The sea change argument has been ballyhooed for decades now but has only really applied to retirees. The reality is, people continue to live in cities due to the availability of services, facilities and jobs. The biggest employment growth industries, healthcare and education, might have some services being offered online, but there's no way they're going entirely online in the short to medium term.
Who said entirely on line?

The education industry has taken a massive hit. Hard to see it returning to previous levels any time soon, if at all.

The massive change to work at home will definitely continue to a great degree.

As with all previous Pandemics, the world will change. That includes Australia, & Victoria by extension. Where it all goes, I don't know. However, It will not be the same as before Covid19 no matter what the body politic & the AFL might want.
 

Johnny Bananas

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Who said entirely on line?
So when you talked about people moving from Sydney and Melbourne to regional areas and working online, you still believe they'll be commuting to work regularly?

The education industry has taken a massive hit. Hard to see it returning to previous levels any time soon, if at all.
It all comes down to how quickly a vaccine is produced. If it happens and is rolled out everywhere, I can see plenty of students from India and other developing countries continuing to study at Australian institutions. If not, then every state and every nation is also in the toilet economically, not just Victoria.
 

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