Tasmania set to apply for a provisional AFL licence (aiming to enter competition by 2025)

Remove this Banner Ad

Rob

Brownlow Medallist
Nov 8, 2000
29,130
15,872
South of the river
AFL Club
Fremantle
Other Teams
Peel Thunder
In that case it comes back to the two-speed economy and which direction it ends up pulling in. I don't see any massive international building boom on par with China's between 2004 and 2014 on the horizon, so I reckon trends will continue to favour the eastern states. If that's the case, I can't see a situation where Melbourne isn't doing well once Covid is over, because of how well the healthcare and education sectors were doing prior to Covid.

Note that every state bit the dust this year, not just Victoria.
Yeah but you're talking about a period pre-Victoria lockdown, and you have to say the state has taken a bit of a publicity hit (certainly outside of Victoria anyway, and I suspect a lot of Victorians aren't exactly thrilled with their state).

No-one really knows how this is going to play out over the next year or 2.
 

madmug

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 17, 2009
16,628
10,540
Hobart
AFL Club
Collingwood
So when you talked about people moving from Sydney and Melbourne to regional areas and working online, you still believe they'll be commuting to work regularly?


It all comes down to how quickly a vaccine is produced. If it happens and is rolled out everywhere, I can see plenty of students from India and other developing countries continuing to study at Australian institutions. If not, then every state and every nation is also in the toilet economically, not just Victoria.
I think I was indicating that their will be more people looking for an alternative to the big city rat race.

Working at home has taken a huge jump over the last few months. People use to retire & move. Now their is the opportunity to do the same job from home. That home may be more & more in a cheaper more relaxed regional area.

Victoria was the fastest growing state. Thus it will be affected more.

Anyway, as I've said in other places, this pandemic is not over. We're in the middle of it. We don't really know how much medium to long term damage has been done to our economy. Add to that the current geopolitical climate in Asia, & one can see its hard to predict where we'll be in 1 year let alone 5-10 years.
 

BringBackTorps

Club Legend
Jan 5, 2017
2,197
1,346
AFL Club
GWS
Wookie reports, on 22.9.20 on Sports Industry twitter, that average Thur. night ratings- very valuable Prime Time- for AFL games were an excellent 860,000.

This is good news for the Tas. 19th team Bid. Adding a 19th team will add 11 extra H & A games pa (198-209). Plus an extra Final & a Final 9?-this would add more interest to the season, for more teams & fans & the MSM, for longer throughout the season. Higher ratings, for longer, for broadcasters- & more $ to AFL!

This added content of 11 extra games would facilitate 11 further Thur. night matches- & thus adds good value to the Rights' deal for the AFL c. 2025. C. Wilson wrote in 2017 that, if an AFL match rated c. 1m in Prime Time, it would be worth c. $1m for broadcasters.

B. Godfrey, Tas. 19th Team Bid Chairman, on 7.2.20 audaciously made a public challenge to anyone who could refute the economic figures/assumptions/arguments in their Bid documents (which the Team had also sought an independent specialist economic analyst company to publicly asses- it was validated).
No one has publicly taken up this public challenge.

Since 7.2.20, AFAIK, only David King has publicly spoken against a Tas. 19th team (but J. Kennett had criticised a 19th team for Tas., but not after 10.7.18).
In opinion polls in Victorian MSM newspapers, TV & radio stations etc., of those who responded (admittedly, non-scientific polls), c. 85-90% voted that Tasmania should gets its own team.

Both A. Demetriou in 2008 (& again in 2019) & G. Mc Lachlan (several years ago as AFL CEO, & again in 2019) have both said, paraphrasing
"When the AFL next expands, the next team to join will probably be Tasmania"- but no timeline given when expansion might occur to 19 teams.
R. Oakley said in 2019 "The game can afford it. It is the right thing to do, it would be well accepted in the football community".

Tasmania's population is at record nos. (for all age groups)- 540,000+; & an overwhelmingly Anglo-Celtic demographic (which comprise c. 80%+ of AFL players). It is well overrepresented in the AFL Hall Of Fame & Team Of The Century.

The AFL would be aware that soccer & basketball GR nos. are booming in Tas., both at record nos.(& Basketball will boom further, with its own NBL team, & new, govt. funded $60m+ stadium etc.). Only male Club GR AF nos. have declined- ditto the quality of Tas.'s elite comps.,& quality & quantity of Drafted players.
It is universally accepted that adding new AFL teams in Sydney, Brisbane, & the Gold Coast have caused their GR nos., & AFL Draft nos., to boom- &, conversely & logically, that Tas. male GR etc. is severely harmed (no tribalism & local pathways) by not having its own team.
 
Last edited:

Log in to remove this ad.

madmug

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 17, 2009
16,628
10,540
Hobart
AFL Club
Collingwood
Wookie reports, on 22.9.20 on Sports Industry twitter, that average Thur. night ratings- very valuable Prime Time- for AFL games were an excellent 860,000.

This is good news for the Tas. 19th team Bid. Adding a 19th team will add 11 extra H & A games pa (198-209. Plus an extra Final?; plus a Final 9?-this would add more interest to the season, for broadcasters, & more teams & fans & the MSM, for longer throughout the season. Better for broadcasters!).

This added content of 11 extra games would facilitate 11 further Thur. night matches- & thus adds good value to the Rights' deal for the AFL c. 2025. C. Wilson wrote in 2017 that, if an AFL match rated c. 1m in Prime Time, it would b worth c. $1m for broadcasters.

B. Godfrey, Tas. 19th Team C'tee Chairman, on 7.2.20, audaciously made a public challenge to anyone who could challenge &/or refute the economic figures/assumptions/arguments in their Bid documents (which the Bid team had also asked an independent specialist economic analyst company to asses).
No one has publicly taken up this public challenge.

Since 7.2.20, AFAIK, only David King has publicly spoken against a Tas. team since Feb. 2020 (but J. Kennett had criticised the Bid in 2019, but not after 7.2.20).
In opinion polls in Victorian MSM newspapers, TV & radio stations etc. in Victoria, c, 85-90% of those who respond (admittedly, non-scientific polls) that Tasmania should gets its own team.

Both A. Demetriou in 2008 (& again in 2019) & G. Mc Lachlan (several years ago as AFL CEO, & again in 2019) have both said, paraphrasing
"when the AFL next expands, the next team to join will probably be Tasmania"- but no timeline given when expansion might occur to 19 teams.
R. Oakley said in 2019 "The game can afford it. It is the right thing to do, it would be well accepted in the football community".

Tasmania's population is at record nos. (for all age groups)- 540,000; & an overwhelmingly Anglo-Celtic demographic (which comprise c.80%+ of AFL players).

The AFL would be aware that soccer & basketball GR nos. are booming in Tas., both at record nos.(& Basketball will boom further, with its own NBL team, & new, govt. funded $60m stadium). Only male Club GR AF nos. have declined- ditto the quality of its elite comps. & Drafted players.
It is universally accepted that adding new AFL teams in Sydney, Brisbane, & the Gold Coast have caused their GR nos., & AFL Draft nos., to boom- & that Tas. male GR etc. is severely harmed by not having its own team.
Under & since Demetriou the AFL have recruited far more office staff at its Melbourne HQ, than AFL players in their 2 new clubs in GWS & GC.

That says it all about this pretend professional organisation.
 

Gibbke

Premiership Player
Mar 21, 2008
3,739
3,374
FNQ
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
South Launceston, Tassie Tigers
Says what exactly? There are a zillion organisations smaller than the AFL who have 100+ employees on the books...
 

madmug

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 17, 2009
16,628
10,540
Hobart
AFL Club
Collingwood
Says what exactly? There are a zillion organisations smaller than the AFL who have 100+ employees on the books...
Says what?

Says they near tripled AFL staff since Dumetrio started. Way in excess in the number of players even.

Profligate spending when so many parts of the game have been/are struggling over the same period.

Full of suits, media & marketing spivs. Wow that's improved things!!!! (AFLX says hi!)

Says what indeed!
 

Bomberboyokay

Cancelled
Sep 27, 2014
34,231
28,796
AFL Club
Essendon
The massive change to work at home will definitely continue to a great degree.
We'll see. Assuming COVID-19 ends eventually, I think employers will be very insistent on people returning to the workplace. They'll want their control back. Employees working at home sets off independent thought alarms and makes moving to another job easier. From what I've read working from home is already finished in places like WA.
 
Last edited:

The_Wookie

Queenslander
Jul 2, 2010
33,354
31,075
Scamander
AFL Club
Carlton
Under & since Demetriou the AFL have recruited far more office staff at its Melbourne HQ, than AFL players in their 2 new clubs in GWS & GC.
Not quite.

Says what?

Says they near tripled AFL staff since Dumetrio started. Way in excess in the number of players even.

Profligate spending when so many parts of the game have been/are struggling over the same period.

Full of suits, media & marketing spivs. Wow that's improved things!!!! (AFLX says hi!)

Says what indeed!
Note as well that half of those employees actually work for the 5 state bodies the league took over from 2011 on. Not to mention AFL media which was created out of nothing. None of these things were an AFL thing when Demetriou was in charge.
 

BringBackTorps

Club Legend
Jan 5, 2017
2,197
1,346
AFL Club
GWS
In good news for the Tas. Bid, the covid-19 financial meltdown for the AFL in 2020 is not as damaging as some may have believed.
C. Wilson said on 23.9 on Footy Classified that (in an AFL Competition C'tee & Presidents' meeting on 21.9)

"Mc Lachlan painted a relatively rosy picture, in terms of losses the game has suffered, $100m in total. Far less than anticipated. AFL $40m, Clubs $60m".
2021 losses are too difficult to predict now.
(Unclear to me if it is simply a $100m loss of revenues- or, much worse, an actual net loss of $100m).


(Losses discussed at 39 seconds -60 seconds)
 
Last edited:

BringBackTorps

Club Legend
Jan 5, 2017
2,197
1,346
AFL Club
GWS
1. Re my post above, the 2020 AFL & Clubs' financial position has become clearer.

A. Kohler is widely regarded as one of Australia's most experienced & respected economists.

Kohler said, on 27.9, re the financial effects of covid-19 for season 2020:-

. "The AFL...because of a $400m hit to revenue...".
(Kohler did not have the latest information, revealed to the AFL Presidents on 21.9. E. McGuire on 23.9 said it was initially expected there would be a loss of $400m, but G. Mc Lachlan told them the loss was now expected to be $100m, in total, for the AFL & Clubs. The "$100m loss", therefore, refers to revenues, not an actual net loss- much better for the AFL, & Tasmania's 19th team prospects).

."...the NRL...revenue expected to fall $130m...".

. "... the sports became overpaid & overstaffed (my emphases)".
A damning indictment on the AFL HQ, & hangers-on in the 18 Club Football Departments.

(Click on "Business Of Sport" A. Kohler 27.9).




2. The Mercury A. Smith 18.8.20

N. Riewoldt believes the granting of a NBL licence for a Tas. team will not be a hindrance for a Tas. 19 th team, but will actually help its Bid.

(Behind a paywall- can anyone open, & post here).




3. The Advocate 22.3

"Tasmania's push to get a team in the AFL is not over or slowed because of coronavirus..."

Bid Team member J. Wilkinson said

" ...we're aiming for a team in 2025...we could easily fit into the 2025 Roster, we wouldn't forever be putting our hands out to the AFL for help".




4. The Advocate C. Williams 16.7.20

This is simply one example (from many) of how basketball is forming a direct & "tribal" connection with Tasmanians- & why Tasmanian Basketball & soccer GR are booming, with record GR nos. now. They are starting to challenge GR AF nos. in Tasmania- due to the AFL's carpetbagging & neglect.

It's hoped that in the near future that HFC & NMFC will announce their imminent departure from Tas.
And the grossly overpaid & overstaffed persons in the AFL HQ etc. start promoting AF in Tasmania; & deliver the Tas. 19th team.



The NBL received a response from c. 10,000 Tasmanians, & the shortlist of 5 names is below.










EDIT:

5. Launceston Examiner A. Mathieson 20.3.20

Mathieson said

"...Tasmania was close to being ticked off by AFL Club Presidents...".

E. McGuire said that in early March the 18 Club Presidents debated the Tas. Bid documents, & that the Presidents believed "...there was a real feel the time was there" ie supported the Bid.
Later, after that meeting, however, the AFL learnt there would be a national covid lockdown/season halt, no crowds'/ revenue decline etc. The Presidents' view on Tas. altered- it could cause a 10 year delay for Tas. to enter. This 10 year delay was based on the (incorrect) view that the AFL may shortly have to actually draw down a loan of $500m.

This $500m debt, however, we now know, is erroneus (as per point 1 above). No major loan was drawn down.

As it now appears that the AFL & Clubs are in a much less perilous financial position, it can be assumed the initial, positive response of the 18 AFL Clubs will be restored soon (but there is no guarantee- what will be the AFLfinancial position in season 2021, & will full crowds be permitted?).

The Bid is certainly alive- & the AFL HQ & Clubs' major permanent cuts from 2020 make the Tas. Bid increasingly achievable- & viable & competitive for the long term.

 
Last edited:

BringBackTorps

Club Legend
Jan 5, 2017
2,197
1,346
AFL Club
GWS
1. "Tasmania is still optimistic of establishing a stand-alone team as early as 2025, despite the widespread financial turmoil facing the League (which has since greatly dissipated, as per point 1 above- my words)".

A poll (albeit unscientific; & c. 86% of respondents lived outside Tasmania) has found that 91% of persons who voted approve of Tasmania having its own team





2. The full financial contribution of the Tas. govt. to basketball, after the NBL approved a Tas. NBL team, will be c. $66m - for the Derwent Entertainment Centre stadium upgrade, at Wilkinson Point.
There will also be a $150m new, glamorous Southbank-style residential & entertainment etc precinct etc. next to it, funded mainly by L. Kestelman.


(Click on Johnson tweet- then click again after it opens, to make The Mercury article legible).






EDIT:

3. Examiner J. Partridge 20.8

Partridge said

"...N. Riewoldt believes the unique circumstances of 2020 wont set the State's AFL Bid back too far".

Riewoldt said

"...all the stakeholders involved in the game are not wasting a crisis to look a full audit of their operational efficiencies, & the way they run their football clubs...everything is on the table. There's going to be a lot of pulling back in terms of the outlay into the game...a lot of that is is going to become much tighter".

(This final paragraph is "code" for the AFL & Clubs were wasting vast $, due to the greed, overpayments, & "uselesssness" of much in the "football industry". Significant trimming of Club salary caps/smaller lists/fewer AFL HQ & Club office staff is a big boost for the Tas. Bid)).

 
Last edited:

Carringbush2010

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 6, 2016
9,829
5,935
Perth
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Pines Football Club
Exactly, the AFL does nothing for us. We should do nothing for them. I dont really know anything about basketball, but i will be watching NBL next year and im losing interest in AFL until we get a team.
Being a Pie fan isn't exactly conducive to keeping interest in the comp either. Feel for ya.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

BringBackTorps

Club Legend
Jan 5, 2017
2,197
1,346
AFL Club
GWS
1. espn. R. Connolly 1.7.20

Connolly is joining with C. Scott, L. Matthews, Clarkson, R. Lyon, Cometti, Pendlebury, M. Williams, Dangerfield & other experts to call for reducing on-field nos. to 16 per game.
(To help eradicate the boring & ugly congestion/ stoppages & tackleball-filled, low scoring borefest that AF has degenerated into).


A reduction of players from 22-20 (Bartlett & G. Healy- & my preference- is for only 2 on the bench, who are Reserves only- no interchange, except for Blood rule & HIA) would be a further significant cut to the absurdly high costs of running an AFL Club. The "football industry" (sic) only want/benefit from these high costs- not AF.
(Cuts already announced are soft cap reduced by $3.5m per Club etc.).

Expansion, without diluting average skill levels, is easier- since 36 more players (18x2) become available.
More importantly, however, a further lowering of the costs to run an AFL Club makes the Tas. Bid even more financially achievable- & Tas. would be more viable & competitive for the long term (Ditto all small Clubs).

(Because of the shortage of AF grounds in Melb. & Sydney, I would not support GR AF there going to 16 per team).


M. Evans said in 2017

"16 -a-side or even 15-a-side has been thrown up...".

C. Scott said that"...athletes are fundamentally different..." ie much fitter in the professional era, exacerbated by interchange, with 4 on the bench.

Onballers rested in the pockets for c. 120 years, with no interchange- space was created for forwards.




2. L. Kestelman's attractive plan for the new, 9ha, $200m Wilkinson Point development- next to the $60m, Tas. govt-funded, DEC upgrade, for Tas.'s NBL team.

 
Last edited:

BringBackTorps

Club Legend
Jan 5, 2017
2,197
1,346
AFL Club
GWS
After he left the AFL Commission in 2017, former Commission Chairman M. Fitzpatrick, in Feb. 2017, publicly nominated only the alleged "North South divide" as the reason Tasmania was not granted its own team in the AFL.

Interestingly, no mention was made of Tas. being unable to support financially its own team - a common "excuse".
Both Tasmania's State economy, & the AFL's revenues, have improved markedly since 31.12.16.

There are, of course, no major North/South divisions now, re Tas. having its own team. (Probably never a major obstacle).

Fitzpatrick also nominated "international soccer" as the only sport that the AFL considered as a possible threat to AF, on a long term view.
(The NRL is, of course, the major competitor of the AFL now, in commercial revenue & MSM exposure terms- & probably for the next 20 years+. The Aust. 2nd tier RU comp. & the A League face massive financial challenges to survive in the next 5 years- no RU Rights' deal, no A League Rights' deal post 2021/all major sponsors have departed).

The boom in GR soccer regd. comp. nos. in Tas., at record highs, & the decline in AF male club & school comp. nos./Draft goldmine in neglected Tas., is undoubtedly a worry for the AFL's overpaid, greedy, incompetent executives- the self-proclaimed & supposed keeper of the code. This is probably why both A. Demetriou & G. Mc Lachlan have both said recently that when the AFL expands next, Tas. will probably be the next team to join.

Also interesting are the secret, pre-season trial games (2016/2017) to 16 per side- to reduce the horrific congestion levels. For reasons mentioned above, 16 per side would also greatly assist the financial viability of a Tas. team.

 
Last edited:

robbieando

Moderator
Oct 9, 2001
16,450
9,751
Spitting Bars
AFL Club
Sydney
For reasons mentioned above, 16 per side would also greatly assist the financial viability of a Tas. team.
Changing to 16 per side at the AFL Level will be hard to implement as the rules committee has to refer to your beloved Charter for the AFL which has 18 per side down as one of many fundamental elements that is a "unique characteristic to be maintained and encouraged" when considering rule changes.

Hard to change to 16 per side when the rules committee is guided to maintain and encourage 18 per side as a fundamental element of the code.
 

madmug

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 17, 2009
16,628
10,540
Hobart
AFL Club
Collingwood
Changing to 16 per side at the AFL Level will be hard to implement as the rules committee has to refer to your beloved Charter for the AFL which has 18 per side down as one of many fundamental elements that is a "unique characteristic to be maintained and encouraged" when considering rule changes.

Hard to change to 16 per side when the rules committee is guided to maintain and encourage 18 per side as a fundamental element of the code.
Yes it would be hard to admit the VFA was right. ;)
 

Our Game

Club Legend
Sep 30, 2014
2,534
1,441
Sandringham
AFL Club
Geelong
Changing to 16 per side at the AFL Level will be hard to implement as the rules committee has to refer to your beloved Charter for the AFL which has 18 per side down as one of many fundamental elements that is a "unique characteristic to be maintained and encouraged" when considering rule changes.

Hard to change to 16 per side when the rules committee is guided to maintain and encourage 18 per side as a fundamental element of the code.
Rules are made to be broken/changed!
If the AFL ever wants to go to the sensible option of 16 on the field it will happen.
To me its a no brainer less players and less congestion and more chances for forwards to be one out plus the bonus of saving millions in match payments!
 

Kappa

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 7, 2014
19,771
23,981
AFL Club
Collingwood
Rules are made to be broken/changed!
If the AFL ever wants to go to the sensible option of 16 on the field it will happen.
To me its a no brainer less players and less congestion and more chances for forwards to be one out plus the bonus of saving millions in match payments!
What if 16 per side makes the game worse?
 

The_Reaper

Hall of Famer
Jan 26, 2006
40,357
31,551
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
East Fremantle
Aren't Tasmanian GR numbers only declining because 20+ years ago, Tasmanian kids literally had no other options?

By proportion of population, GR numbers have declined in Melbourne, Perth and Adelaide as well. Unlike Tasmania this is masked because of the population growth meaning that the raw numbers are increasing.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Top Bottom