Tasmania Congratulations on Tassie License. Mens team to enter 2028. Womens team TBA. Other details TBA 3/5

[Chief]

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GO TO PART 2 of this thread:

Tasmania - Tasmania Devils, welcome to the AFL. Mens team to enter 2028. Womens team TBA. Other details TBA 3/5 (Part 2)

Continued from Part 1: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/congratulations-on-tassie-license-mens-team-to-enter-2028-womens-team-tba-other-details-tba-3-5.1226653/ Was going to draft up a Summary but this is pretty good...

www.bigfooty.com

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[madmug]

Gil could give up half is his salary to go towards it. Is there another sport in the world where they Admin staff get paid more than it’s stars?

We've already seen the profligate spending on AFL HQ staff.

Yet the rest of the game is struggling. Regional, Community, Suburban, Junior football. Yet the AFL just suck everyone else dry.

The AFL are the self appointed minders of the game. Yet they behave like corporate raiders. Using their 'market' & market power for personal gain.

Clearly they need more marketing & media staff.

 

[Demon in Hell]

Gil could give up half is his salary to go towards it. Is there another sport in the world where they Admin staff get paid more than it’s stars?

Yes, its called the Olympics.

 

[madmug]

Yes, its called the Olympics.

Olympics is nominally 'amateur'. Some end up as millionaires. Some are fully employed, like China, NK etc in the Army etc.

I think one should look at professional sports to see which ones pay their managers more than their stars.

 

[BringBackTorps]

1.

But what is the proportion of males of playing age in Tassie in 2000 compared to 2019?

The specific per capita % of the Tas. population, re Club & Auskick players in Tas. in 2000 has not been provided; ditto for 2019.
B. Godfrey said only that in 2019, there was a 22% per capita AF Club player decline in Tas., cf 2000 per capita figure. He also said that Tas. had the highest per capita % in Aust. in 2000.

[/QUOTE]
You compared Tassie's current numbers of age 1-14 to Victoria, but that doesn't really say anything.
[/QUOTE]

It is important that (according to 2016 Census) the % of the Tas. general population aged 1y.o- 14 y.o. is virtually the same % (17.7% vs. 18.2%) as in Victoria; & they are much more likely to be Anglo/Celtic in Tas.: the AF demographic.
This similar % negates the argument that there aren't enough (per capita) kids in Tas., causing AF Club & Auskick nos. to unduly suffer.

This flawed demographic "justification", by some, for the Tas. long term decline in male GR AF comp. nos. is also negated by the fact that GR soccer & basketball nos. are booming in Tas., both having strong, long term growth trajectories & at record highs. GR AF is the opposite- only in Tas.!



2. Tas. Premier Gutwein stated 14.12 that he has had 2 discussions with G. McLachlan in the last 4 days re the Bid (no details offered).

He also reiterated today, 14.12, that until the AFL provides full "clarity on whether or not we are going to get an AFL licence", he will NOT finalise any negotiations with HFC & NMFC re an extension in games beyond 2021.

It was also announced today that the statewide TSLW will not resume in 2021. One of the 4 TSLW teams, Nth Laun. FC has withdrawn- & players etc. have not been informed of what specific efforts, if any, have been made by AFL Tas. to seek a replacement team.
The palpable anger & frustration of some TSLW players, in both their comments & demeanour, is evident in the video below.

https://twitter.com/brentcostelloe

(Go to 14.12- then click on video report on Tas. female players; & to 1 minute 25 seconds re Gutwein wanting "clarity" from McLachlan)



3. In this 9.12 Tasmania Talks Radio podcast below, E. Stewart (Tas. Bid member) gives his assessment of the chances for Tas. to become the 19th Club.

Premier takes hardline approach on Tassie AFL team

Premier Peter Gutwein has given the AFL an ultimatum, stating that negotiations to continue deals with North Melbourne and Hawthorn will come to a ...

www.tasmaniatalks.com.au

 

[Tasmanian saint]

Calling the AFL out and announcing that there is no more money for Hawks or North is probably their best/only chance to get a team. Nothing to lose.

Yeah the old premier has played this pretty smart really he definitely has a lot harder edge then his predecessors his forcing the afl to show there hand even if we end up with no games down here the afl will be made to look like bad guys and he sure as hell won’t lose any votes being the first Tassie leader finally standing up to them

 

[madmug]

Yeah the old premier has played this pretty smart really he definitely has a lot harder edge then his predecessors his forcing the afl to show there hand even if we end up with no games down here the afl will be made to look like bad guys and he sure as hell won’t lose any votes being the first Tassie leader finally standing up to them

In all fairness, Wil Hodgman couldn't threaten Hawthorn with eviction as he's a 'Southerner', so it'd be seen as an attack on the Norf of the state.

However Gutwein is from the Norf, so he can upset the Northern political mafia & get away with it.

North Melbourne are politically more expendable than Hawthorn. So North will get the axe first.

The AFL want Hawthorn out & North to stay. So booting them first will be a double edged sword to upset the AFL. Great!!

 

[Tasmanian saint]

In all fairness, Wil Hodgman couldn't threaten Hawthorn with eviction as he's a 'Southerner', so it'd be seen as an attack on the Norf of the state.

However Gutwein is from the Norf, so he can upset the Northern political mafia & get away with it.

North Melbourne are politically more expendable than Hawthorn. So North will get the axe first.

The AFL want Hawthorn out & North to stay. So booting them first will be a double edged sword to upset the AFL. Great!!

Yeah I noticed to every time Larry kestleman is in town he always gets himself on camera with him they look pretty chummy another little dig at Gill I recon

 

[madmug]

Yeah I noticed to every time Larry kestleman is in town he always gets himself on camera with him they look pretty chummy another little dig at Gill I recon

No I doubt he'd even think of it. The NBL is the catalyst for the $200mil development of Wilkinsons point, including some the stadium refurbishment.

Its newsworthy & the Premier would always want his face on tv

 

[Jazny]

Get those pathetic bottom four teams out of our state.

 

[BringBackTorps]

1. 7news.com T. Browne 8.12

"The AFL is on the cusp of announcing an independent review of the entire game".
"...set to proceed in the new year...independent of the AFL & its 18 Clubs...what footy looks like in decades to come".

AFL set to announce independent review into the entire game

A powerful club chairman's proposal is about to get the green light.

7news.com.au

Gamechanger?

If truly independent, it will obviously need to address the AFL's "Statement Of Purpose" ie the AFL has a responsibility "... to promote, control, manage, encourage, develop, & foster the Australian game of football"; & the AFL's catastrophic handling of Tasmania- loss of the fabled recruitment goldmine of many Tas. champions & stars; & a demoralised GR.

The Review team will need to be fully cognizant (possibly late 2022, inc. new Rights' deals?) of the AFL's true post-covid financial position, before it can make definitive recommendations.

AFL officials believe that it is expected that full capacity crowds may be possible halfway into 2021.

AFL set for massive crowds in 2021 as stadium capacities revealed

There were no crowds at the MCG in 2020 - that's set to change in a big way.

7news.com.au

2. Wookie, in Sports Industry twitter, just tweeted that 7 Vic. Clubs have announced a combined operating profit of $3.88m- with only Cats, Dees, & Saints yet to report.

It appears the AFL's financial future in the next 3 years is much less dire than some believed earlier on in the pandemic. There is also renewed interest in the Rights, where Foxtel recently initiated talks with the AFL. Ch.7 & Foxtel ratings have been strong in 2020.

The biggest loss was caused by the cost of the Qld. hubs, $60m.

Hopefully the Vic. govt.'s disastrous hotel quarantine "management" of private security/paper-based & ineffective Contact Tracing system fiascos will not be repeated (Police are in charge of hotels now)- so no hubs needed in 2021, & season proceeds normally with big crowds.
If so, chances of Tas. being granted a licence improve considerably.

 

[BringBackTorps]

1. The AFL has extended its Rights' deals with Foxtel & Telstra for 2 years- also to 2024 (Seven extended, for lower $, to 2024, on 11.6.20).

The total Rights' deal of Seven, Foxtel, & Telstra for the 2 years will be $946m.

There will also be extra Telstra sponsorship $ ( but no details), with Telstra's CEO A. Penn saying "... extending our sponsorships" with the AFL.
Telstra will also provide extra "exciting" services for fans at DS; & more benefits for broadcast viewers generally.

Statement: AFL extends broadcast rights deal with Foxtel, Telstra

The AFL has reached a new agreement with long-time broadcast partners Foxtel and Telstra until the end of 2024

www.afl.com.au

This is an amazing deal for the AFL. They have negotiated very well- Australia's best pro-sports' post covid result.

Despite virtually all MSM experts predicting lower Rights' etc. deals, for all sports, in the post-covid recessionary economic gloom, the AFL has increased its total Rights' funding for 2023-24- to $473m pa. Foxtel & Telstra are paying more for 2023-24, cf original 2017-22 deal (was $418m pa, voided, Force Majeure, on 11.6.20). $473m pa is a new record in Aust. sport.

I don't know what Telstra was previously paying to the AFL, for sponsorship, from 2017.

The AFL previously stated to Club chiefs, on 11.6.20:-

. its new post-covid deals with Seven (2020-2024) & Foxtel (2020-2022) resulted, overall, in a 12-13% reduction, cf original deal.

. Telstra agreed that Rights' $ to 2022 will remain unchanged ie no reduction.

. the NRL reduction, cf its original deal, was double the AFL reduction ie NRL forced to accept c. 25% less.

This new deal is a big plus for the chances of Tas. becoming the 19th team c. 2025- as the AFL will continue to be in a strong financial position then.

The previous deal was to end 2022.
Why has the AFL only wanted to extend to 2024? Is it because there is a possibility Tas. could enter in 2025 as the 19th team?





2. Melbourne FC has released its Financial Report for 2020.

It should be noted it states

"The principal activities of the Club are to field teams bearing the Club's name within the AFL & associated competitions, & to promote the game of Australian Rules Football".

https://resources.melbournefc.com.au/aflc-melb/document/2020/12/21/bcf65743-68b8-40a0-a7bf-75f650b0ce8e/MFC_Financial-Report_2020_Digital.pdf

(Scroll to pg 2).

It would be interesting to obtain from the AFL, HFC, & NMFC how, specifically, they are"... 'promoting' the game of Australian Rules Football" in Tasmania!

 

[The_Wookie]

It would be interesting to obtain from the AFL, HFC, & NMFC how, specifically, they are"... 'promoting' the game of Australian Rules Football" in Tasmania!

The AFLs remit isnt exclusively to Tasmania.

 

[madmug]

The AFLs remit isnt exclusively to Tasmania.

No, but it should be 'inclusive' of the progress of the game here. Clearly it hasn't been.

 

[BringBackTorps]

G. McLachlan confirms the Rights' deal for 2023-24 ($946m, over 2 years) is a record high for the AFL (& $473m pa is also a record for Australian sport); & it will help "...rebuild the Balance Sheets of those Clubs & the industry" by 2024.

"Asked if the deal was an increase on what the AFL was receiving in the pre-covid-adjusted arrangement, G. McLachlan said yes".

New broadcast deal to add certainty as AFL, clubs rebuild

The extended broadcast rights deal with Foxtel and Telstra will help underpin the game's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic

www.afl.com.au

The record Rights' deal increases the financial confidence & strength of the AFL, & enhances the chances that Tas. will become the 19th team c. 2025.

 

[BringBackTorps]

According to a December 2020 Federal govt. Report, covid has reduced the level of population growth in Australia, cf previous ABS estimates of what the growth would have been in 2030. Immigration (excluding returning Australia ex-pats) has virtually ceased in 2020- & may not resume until very late 2021.

Despite Melbourne's lengthy lockdown, again "Melbourne is tipped to overtake Sydney in 2026/27...In 2030/31, Melbourne will be home to 6.2m...". (In late 2020, c. 5.2m).

COVID-19 puts brakes on population growth

The first federal government population statement shows coronavirus has slowed Australia's population growth but Melbourne is still on track to overtake Sydney.

au.finance.yahoo.com

The 2019 ABS estimates that Melb. would have c. 9m in 2050, & Sydney c. 8.5m in 2050, will both probably have to be revised downwards.

The increasing huge size of Melbourne however, over the long term, is very good news for the Tas. Bid- where independent experts also predict there will be significantly higher & lucrative AFL-match tourist nos. from Melbourne (which will become a much more crowded, polluted, & "stressed" megacity).
The independent experts confirm the Tas. govt. figures that the strong Tas. govt. financial support for a Tas. 19th AFL team will be offset very easily by the much greater economic/jobs' etc. benefits from this AFL-related tourism to beautiful Tasmania.

 

[BringBackTorps]

B. Stubbs The Australian/The Mercury 27.11.20

Scott Wade, former CEO of AFL Tasmania (& 15 years previously, when it was run by an independent Board, which once had B. Gale on it) said

"The AFL has sucked the life out of Tasmania, but has given nothing back".

He also said that, whist A. Demetriou was AFL CEO, Demetriou (after 2008 expansion decisions) was committed to Tas. being the next, 19th team to join the AFL, after GC & GWS were admitted. In November, however, Wade strongly doubts whether the current AFL wants a Tas. 19th team.
Stubbs wrote Wade said "...a Tasmanian AFL team would reinvigorate the code".

NoCookies | The Australian

www.theaustralian.com.au

(If this doesn't open paywall, google "AFL Tasmania excuses hogwash The Australian" to retrieve full article)


Wade's comments are odd, as:-

. Tas.'s economy is much stronger in 2021, cf 2008.

. its population growth has had reasonable increases.

. conversely, it is incontrovertible Tas. GR male club & school comp. nos. are in a significant long term decline (notwithstanding c. 2k increase in male club nos. 2016-2019).

. there is an overriding view in the MSM (inc. Melb. Herald Sun & The Age), & also many former & current AFL players & officials (inc. P. Gordon, R. Oakley, A. Demtriou & now even J. Kennett- all in 2019) that a Tas. 19th team should join the AFL in the near future.


IMO, the AFL does want Tas. to join in the near future, as the new Rights' deal (a record $946m for period 2023-24) gives the AFL & Clubs financial security; & the male GR disaster is a very embarassing debacle it can't spin. And, of course, to revive the Tas. Draft goldmine.
eg Adelaide Radio host G. Cornes has called for Tas. to be added asap as the 19th Club, & Tasmania's ommission "...is a national disgrace".
eg Ditto Melb. SEN's A. Maher & R. Murphy, who both want a Tas. 19th team in the AFL, with Maher saying "Its just the right thing to do for the good of the game".

The AFL, however, will feign indifference & proclaim "economic uncertainty", & play hardball with the Tas. govt.- a ploy to extract a much higher amount than the Bid's $7.3m -$11m pa permanent allocation that the Tas. govt. has already agreed to. The AFL, rightly, regards this as a low-ball offer.

 

[Hawkk]

B. Stubbs The Australian/The Mercury 27.11.20

Scott Wade, former CEO of AFL Tasmania (& 16 years previously, when it was run by an independent Board, which once had B. Gale on it) said

"The AFL has sucked the life out of Tasmania, but has given nothing back".

He also said that, whist A. Demetriou was AFL CEO, Demetriou (after 2008 expansion decisions) was committed to Tas. being the next, 19th team to join the AFL, after GC & GWS were admitted. In November, however, Wade has doubts whether the current AFL has the same commitment.

NoCookies | The Australian

www.theaustralian.com.au

(If this doesn't open paywall, google "AFL Tasmania excuses hogwash" to retrieve full article)


Wade's comments are odd, as:-

. Tas.'s economy is much stronger in 2021, cf 2008.

. its population growth has increased.

. conversely, it is incontrovertible Tas.GR club & school comp. nos are in a significant long term decline (notwithstanding c. 2k increase in male club nos. 2016-2019).

. there is an overriding view in the MSM, & many former & current AFL players & officials (inc. P. Gordon, R. Oakley, & now even J. Kennett) that a Tas. 19tth team should join the AFL in the near future.


IMO, the AFL wants Tas. to join in the near future, as the new Rights' deal (a record $946m for period 2023-24), gives the AFL financial security; & the GR disaster is a debacle it can't spin.
The AFL, however, will feign indifference, & play hardball with the Tas. govt.- to extract a much higher amount than the Bid's $7.3m -$11m pa permanent Tas. govt. funding.

Hardly surprising that the ex CEO of AFL Tasmania (who ran it into the ground) is talking down future expansion and blaming the AFL for his said terrible job...

I think we might let this one go through to the keeper...

 

[madmug]

B. Stubbs The Australian/The Mercury 27.11.20

Scott Wade, former CEO of AFL Tasmania (& 16 years previously, when it was run by an independent Board) said

"The AFL has sucked the life out of Tasmania, but has given nothing back".

He also said that, whist A. Demetriou was AFL CEO, Demetriou (after 2008 expansion decisions) was committed to Tas. being the next, 19th team to join the AFL, after GC & GWS were admitted. In November, however, Wade has doubts whether the current AFL has the same commitment.

NoCookies | The Australian

www.theaustralian.com.au

(If this doesn't open paywall, google "AFL Tasmania excuses hogwash" to retrieve full article)


Wade's comments are odd, as:-

. Tas.'s economy is much stronger in 2021, cf 2008.

. its population growth has increased.

. conversely, it is incontrovertible Tas.GR club & school comp. nos are in a significant long term decline (notwithstanding c. 2k increase in male club nos. 2016-2019).

. there is an overriding view in the MSM, & many former & current AFL players & officials (inc. P. Gordon, R. Oakley, & now even J. Kennett) that a Tas. 19tth team should join the AFL in the near future.


IMO, the AFL wants Tas. to join in the near future, as the new Rights' deal (a record $946m for period 2023-24), gives the AFL financial security; & the GR disaster is a debacle it can't spin.
The AFL, however, will feign indifference, & play hardball with the Tas. govt.- to extract a much higher amount than the Bid's $7.3m -$11m pa permanent Tas. govt. funding.

At this stage I'm just hoping they dump the NM & H carpetbaggers.

ie put it back on the AFL.

It'll hurt the AFL more than Tasmania. After all, one thinks interstate travel will still have some sticking points over the 2021 as the Covid situation is still in a state of flux.

Various strains are becoming apparent & the Vaccine will take most of 2021 to be rolled out & proved effective. ie At this stage the deal is worth much more to NM & H than it is to Tasmania.

So cut 'em lose. I say

 

[theyellowsash]

And to put it another way, I think if there was a standout locations for that 20th licence that could fund itself for most part within 10 years the Tassie licence would have been granted already for 2025

surely adelaide or perth could sustain another team. freo is self sustaining afaik, and the only reason port gets into trouble is because they were taking on an existing fanbase with people already loving/hating them.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

surely adelaide or perth could sustain another team. freo is self sustaining afaik, and the only reason port gets into trouble is because they were taking on an existing fanbase with people already loving/hating them.

Adelaide has 650 000 people per team, Perth has 1 000 000 people per team. Perth adding a third team brings them to Adelaide's level. Adelaide adding another team brings them to 430 000, which is fewer people per team than even Melbourne. A third team in Adelaide simply wouldn't be viable. A third team in Perth might be.

 

[theyellowsash]

Adelaide has 650 000 people per team, Perth has 1 000 000 people per team. Perth adding a third team brings them to Adelaide's level. Adelaide adding another team brings them to 430 000, which is fewer people per team than even Melbourne. A third team in Adelaide simply wouldn't be viable. A third team in Perth might be.

good point, i knew perth had more people per team but i didnt realise adelaide was similar to melbourne already (melbourne is around 600k/team).

id say the 600k/team is a reasonable number to aim for in terms of sustainability. then again, geelong is sustainable with less than half of that, because theres nothing else to do thats not alcohol or illegal. surely adelaide could sustain a higher density of teams, what else is there to do?

 

[Bjo187]

Adelaide seemed like the most footy passionate state i'd been to when i went there a few years ago. Not sure on everybody elses opinion but the whole city seemed to run off an afl game being played at adelaide oval to me.

 

[madmug]

good point, i knew perth had more people per team but i didnt realise adelaide was similar to melbourne already (melbourne is around 600k/team).

id say the 600k/team is a reasonable number to aim for in terms of sustainability. then again, geelong is sustainable with less than half of that, because theres nothing else to do thats not alcohol or illegal. surely adelaide could sustain a higher density of teams, what else is there to do?

In Adelaide?

I'm sure theirs a lot of good pubs & food places. Barossa Valley is just up the road.

I mean what extra things do you do in Melbourne? More pubs, more food places? Anything else?

 

[theyellowsash]

In Adelaide?

I'm sure theirs a lot of good pubs & food places. Barossa Valley is just up the road.

I mean what extra things do you do in Melbourne? More pubs, more food places? Anything else?

theres plenty of events, sports, shows, galleries etc to do. we arent consistently rated in the top few cities in the world for nothing.

i know that theres some great stuff around adelaide, but i doubt everyone is going to the barossa every other weekend.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

good point, i knew perth had more people per team but i didnt realise adelaide was similar to melbourne already (melbourne is around 600k/team).

Melbourne is about 550k per team. You would expect this figure to keep increasing in short order though, as Melbourne had the highest growth rate of any city in Australia before Covid. Even taking out international migration, Melbourne was a net gainer from internal migration whereas Sydney was losing people to it.

id say the 600k/team is a reasonable number to aim for in terms of sustainability. then again, geelong is sustainable with less than half of that, because theres nothing else to do thats not alcohol or illegal.

As has been discussed in this thread before, Geelong has plenty of supporters living in Melbourne also.

surely adelaide could sustain a higher density of teams, what else is there to do?

In Adelaide? A million things. Perth 3 or Canberra would be better options for the AFL.