Tasmania set to apply for a provisional AFL licence (aiming to enter competition by 2025)

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Walshawk

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This article states that GWS Giants stadium could have its capacity increased from the current 24,000 to 30,000, for only $20,000,000. I thought it would cost more than $20,000,000.

This is relevant for Tasmania since, if it is granted the 19th licence to enter the AFL, both Bellerive & YP must have new grandstands (each adding another c. 10,000 capacity) in their Outers- bringing capacity to at least 28,000 at each. What would it cost to add 10,000 seater grandstands at both? Or add 12,000 seater grandstands to both?

How many tourists, on average, are likely to attend from Melb. Clubs?
Because HFC was playing in Launny 4 games pa since 2012, the "novelty" would quickly wear off for HFC fans, when marketing a footy trip to Tas. to the same membership every year, for many years.


IIRC, Giants Stadium cost c. $65,000,000 to build in 2012; & the AFL contributed c. $20,000,000. This seems cheap, when BankWest Stadium, capacity 30,000, cost $360,000,000 to build in 2019.
You can’t just add 10k of stands. There is no space at either ground to do so. You would need to demolish current stands first. So, to increase capacity by 50%, you may need to demolish half of the stadium (losing 8k), then build a 18k stand/s in their place. Then build new Amenities, club rooms and corporate facilities.
You could increase each ground by 2 - 4K without have to demolish existing stands, but to bring up to 28!- 30k is a major rebuild. Any probably not possible or worthwhile at Belreive given it is situated in suburban back street with very poor access.
 

BringBackTorps

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Yet in post 1111 you again talk about 11 extra games at Docklands. I Don’t get it
For clarity, I should have said 11 extra Thursday Docklands time slots ie Vic. home team games switched to Thur. night. NMFC & HFC will be playing 8 more home games in Melb. (but NMFC will probably want to sell some home games interstate). I am suggesting some Docklands daytime weekend games will be switched to the more lucrative, Prime Time Thur. nights.

As per my post #1122, Tasmania will likely play all its 11 home games, during the day, on either Sat. or Sun., supplanting time slots already used in Victoria on the weekend.
The AFL, to maximise viewing audiences & broadcast $, wont want Tas. home games on weekends played concurrently with weekend day games in Victoria (MCG games won't be switched, as it is legally bound to hold a minimum no. of MCG games). It is these Docklands daytime games that will be switched to the far more lucrative, Prime Time Thur. nights- new time slots are required when Tas. enters.


Re Bellerive expansion, see my post #823.
I said previously the streets adjoining the hill side, together with private houses, would need to be compulsorily acquired, by the Tas. govt to build the new stand etc. On match days, no private parking will be permitted in nearby streets, so buses can park there- including all the way to Clarence St.

Macquarie Point, capacity 30,000, costing c. $360,000,000 is simply too expensive for 6 games pa.
 
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madmug

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These arguments about retention are really drawing a long bow. Put yourself in the shoes of a budding 18 yo footballer, do you think living in Hobart or even Lonny is going to be a deal breaker to an AFL career?

Seriously any draft hopeful wouldn't be of sound mind if living in Tas was the one thing they would forego a career at the highest level for.

There's been mention of players exiting GC - that's not because of the location it's because of the club. Brisbane just up the road is now becoming a desired destination club not because of location it's because of the club.

I really find it difficult to believe retention of players is going to be an issue because of location.
I think there is some validity in asking the question. What reasons or inputs go into players decisions to move are probably quite nebulous.

The GCS shows its not always about sun & surf. Geelong have had ups & downs, so proximity to Melbourne can't be the main reason. North Melbourne have had trouble getting the big names to sign on, St Kilda are down more often than not, & they are in Melbourne, as is Western bullies & Melbourne who have had limited successes over a long period. Yet they are in the biggest footy city.

So what is it then? I'd suggest the biggest reason is the club culture. No just winning, but well run, inclusive team ethos, strong community alliance, & a positive view of the place where they are playing their footy.

Brisbane were great, then crap for ages. They have changed that culture again, changed the attitude of people to the club from outside. Thus they are much stronger. Richmond were pretty much rubbish off & on for 30 years, now they have built that strong club culture & the success comes. Hawthorn the same but the draft is catching up with them at the moment.

Starting a team will require getting the right coaching & management team in place. GWS seemed to do this very well. That despite the very negative attitude to the west of Sydney from outside, 'Westies' is a derogatory term. So GWS have done it well so far.
 

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Carringbush2010

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I think there is some validity in asking the question. What reasons or inputs go into players decisions to move are probably quite nebulous.

The GCS shows its not always about sun & surf. Geelong have had ups & downs, so proximity to Melbourne can't be the main reason. North Melbourne have had trouble getting the big names to sign on, St Kilda are down more often than not, & they are in Melbourne, as is Western bullies & Melbourne who have had limited successes over a long period. Yet they are in the biggest footy city.

So what is it then? I'd suggest the biggest reason is the club culture. No just winning, but well run, inclusive team ethos, strong community alliance, & a positive view of the place where they are playing their footy.

Brisbane were great, then crap for ages. They have changed that culture again, changed the attitude of people to the club from outside. Thus they are much stronger. Richmond were pretty much rubbish off & on for 30 years, now they have built that strong club culture & the success comes. Hawthorn the same but the draft is catching up with them at the moment.

Starting a team will require getting the right coaching & management team in place. GWS seemed to do this very well. That despite the very negative attitude to the west of Sydney from outside, 'Westies' is a derogatory term. So GWS have done it well so far.
I agree with this wholeheartedly, those like Gigantor who's argument is "Tas is not attractive to young men" I say that those young men wouldn't give a flying. They're trying to gain an AFL career ffs, the location of the club has near zero relevance.
 

The_Wookie

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I agree with this wholeheartedly, those like Gigantor who's argument is "Tas is not attractive to young men" I say that those young men wouldn't give a flying. They're trying to gain an AFL career ffs, the location of the club has near zero relevance.
Those same young men have an eye out for what to do after they finish their average 3 year career in the AFL. Zero relevance lol.
 

Carringbush2010

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Those same young men have an eye out for what to do after they finish their average 3 year career in the AFL. Zero relevance lol.
And? Does that mean because they start their career in Tas that they have continue on another career path IN Tas?

So yeah as far as getting into the system, location has near zero relevance.
 

Gigantor

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Those same young men have an eye out for what to do after they finish their average 3 year career in the AFL. Zero relevance lol.
It's not the 3 year average career I'm thinking of, it's the minimum 2 year period the better draftees will stay put for.
 

Walshawk

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For clarity, I should have said 11 extra Thursday Docklands time slots ie Vic. home team games switched to Thur. night. NMFC & HFC will be playing 8 more home games in Melb. (but NMFC will probably want to sell some home games interstate). I am suggesting some Docklands daytime weekend games will be switched to the more lucrative, Prime Time Thur. nights.

As per my post #1122, Tasmania will likely play all its 11 home games, during the day, on either Sat. or Sun., supplanting time slots already used in Victoria on the weekend.
The AFL, to maximise viewing audiences & broadcast $, wont want Tas. home games on weekends played concurrently with weekend day games in Victoria (MCG games won't be switched, as it is legally bound to hold a minimum no. of MCG games). It is these Docklands daytime games that will be switched to the far more lucrative, Prime Time Thur. nights- new time slots are required when Tas. enters.


Re Bellerive expansion, see my post #823.
I said previously the streets adjoining the hill side, together with private houses, would need to be compulsorily acquired, by the Tas. govt to build the new stand etc. On match days, no private parking will be permitted in nearby streets, so buses can park there- including all the way to Clarence St.

Macquarie Point, capacity 30,000, costing c. $360,000,000 is simply too expensive for 6 games pa.
There will be nine games some weeks and eight some weeks, with an extra round. So they could fit everything into the current schedule. The big advantage though of having one or three teams having a bye each week (seven rounds with three byes and 17 rounds with one bye) is the flexibility to schedule those teams on Thursday nights. Plus should be able to eliminate short breaks by giving teams the bye after ANZAC Day, Easter Monday, QB, etc.
So yes, I can see the 17 rounds with nine games having Thursday nights, if not all rounds.

As far as what Hawthorn and North do with the returning games, I could see each club playing two games outside MCG/Docklands at secondary venues. So perhaps we could see this:-

MCG home games (45 same as current)
Melbourne 9
Collingwood 9
Richmond 9
Hawthorn 8
Carlton 5
Essendon 5 (shift one from Marvel)
ALL Cats games down the highway.

Sold home games
Dogs 2 @ Ballarat
Dees 1 @ NT
Saints 1 @ North Qld (should take up GC's game)
North 2 @ Albury?
Hawks 2 @ Canberra - I would rebrand GWS as Western Sydney and start moving more games there as their fan base builds. Hawks could split it with GWS.

That leaves around 46 games for Marvel.
 

madmug

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There will be nine games some weeks and eight some weeks, with an extra round. So they could fit everything into the current schedule. The big advantage though of having one or three teams having a bye each week (seven rounds with three byes and 17 rounds with one bye) is the flexibility to schedule those teams on Thursday nights. Plus should be able to eliminate short breaks by giving teams the bye after ANZAC Day, Easter Monday, QB, etc.
So yes, I can see the 17 rounds with nine games having Thursday nights, if not all rounds.

As far as what Hawthorn and North do with the returning games, I could see each club playing two games outside MCG/Docklands at secondary venues. So perhaps we could see this:-

MCG home games (45 same as current)
Melbourne 9
Collingwood 9
Richmond 9
Hawthorn 8
Carlton 5
Essendon 5 (shift one from Marvel)
ALL Cats games down the highway.

Sold home games
Dogs 2 @ Ballarat
Dees 1 @ NT
Saints 1 @ North Qld (should take up GC's game)
North 2 @ Albury?
Hawks 2 @ Canberra - I would rebrand GWS as Western Sydney and start moving more games there as their fan base builds. Hawks could split it with GWS.

That leaves around 46 games for Marvel.
Appreciate your thoughts, but why would Hawthorn want/need to sell games?

I doubt GWS would evacuate Canberra anyway.
 

Walshawk

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Appreciate your thoughts, but why would Hawthorn want/need to sell games?

I doubt GWS would evacuate Canberra anyway.
I guess for the same reasons we have done so over the last 15 years - to spread our wings, grow our membership and bank the cash. I don't agree, but obviously the clubs believes that, if we fall upon hard times, the guaranteed revenue from sold games is worthwhile.
 

madmug

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I guess for the same reasons we have done so over the last 15 years - to spread our wings, grow our membership and bank the cash. I don't agree, but obviously the clubs believes that, if we fall upon hard times, the guaranteed revenue from sold games is worthwhile.
Well that's ok I guess, but it won't be Canberra. The AFL are in control of that via GWS.

What about a place like Bendigo? It is a great place with good footy facilities. QE Oval wouldn't need much to get up to AFL levels.
 

Mr Taswegian

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The Australian has got an article today talking about this local artitects plans for a new Macquarie Point stadium.The vision is for a 27000 seat stadium at the huge cost of 500 million,only two thousand eatra seats more than the new stadium in Townsville,but 250 million dollars dearer,it would want to have a roof for that price.
 
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BobbyMorri

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It is due to the grass banks i reckon. Would be fantastic ignoring the cost. Looks amazing.

Website so people can view. www.taspark.com.au

btw, this is a private company plans. The Tas government are keeping very quiet about what they will actually do with the site.
 

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Mr Taswegian

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It is due to the grass banks i reckon. Would be fantastic ignoring the cost. Looks amazing.

Website so people can view. www.taspark.com.au

btw, this is a private company plans. The Tas government are keeping very quiet about what they will actually do with the site.
It's doesn't look very sheltered from the weather with no roof and partly opened up to the river,not the best design for a stadium located at Macquarie Point.
 

BobbyMorri

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It's doesn't look very sheltered from the weather with no roof and partly opened up to the river,not the best design for a stadium located at Macquarie Point.
sadly, any dockland like stadium will never be built due to the protesting no-sayers we have in this city of ours. And I would question the need for a fully roofed stadium if the DEC does get re-built to be capable to hosting big concerts a the like.

heck, this won't ever be built, but at least they tried to address some of those concerns to throw back at these people.
 

madmug

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sadly, any dockland like stadium will never be built due to the protesting no-sayers we have in this city of ours. And I would question the need for a fully roofed stadium if the DEC does get re-built to be capable to hosting big concerts a the like.

heck, this won't ever be built, but at least they tried to address some of those concerns to throw back at these people.
Its just thought bubble with coloured pencils, without much thought.

I'm afraid we're stuck with Boot park.

Its more likely that York Park will get any Fed money, for political reasons (close electorate).

It just confirms the stupidity of building a stadium in a village area next to a beach. Bellerive was the dumbest idea of all time. They were told time & time again as they built it. Just stupid.
 

telsor

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1. Here is my source, as you requested, for the $2,500,000 pa GWS is being paid for stadium naming rights.


I requested your source, for your view that significantly (eg 11) more games could not be played at Docklands, due to concerns about ground condition issues. Can you provide it? (Also, the net increase in games, pa at Docklands, would probably be less than 11- as Docklands games would be switched from Sat./Sun. daytime).
I don't have one that has specifics, but there are MANY articles about the pitch quality at Docklands, and the number of matches is frequently mentioned.
It follows that the MCG would have similar concerns.
2. In my post #1086, the Wiki article (under "Redevelopment") in the text, says Kardina Park has a capacity of c. 34,000- the original plans for 36,000 had to be reduced.
"Its capacity is said to be unable to exceed 34,000"

Despite sellouts, it hasn't, AFAIK, surpassed much above 32,000, according to this link.


It is reasonable to compare the financial results & net financial benefits of Geelong & a new Tas. team. Do you dispute this- if so,on what basis?
In any comparison, Geelong is larger...it's also worth noting that Geelong's finances aren't exactly brilliant..indeed, when you make consideration for their long run of success, it's quite poor....Do you really think being a downsized version of that is the argument you want to put?


3. You haven't addressed the issues in all my other questions I put to you, above, in previous posts.
In particular, how much would an extra 11 H & A games add to the broadcast rights $? (This would require 11 new timeslots).

And, if 11 extra timeslots were made for additional Thur. night games at Docklands (fully owned by the AFL), how much extra pa would the AFL make in DS naming rights, signage, Medallion Club & corporate boxes, general catering & beverages, underground car parking etc.?
How would I know?
As previously mentioned, I don't see it happening anyway (both 11 extra games at docklands, or thursday nights every week).
4. IIRC, Footscray is being paid c. $300,000+ for each game played in Ballarat, even though Mars capacity is only c. 11,000. Do you agree?

And what are your views on the alleged comments by WBFC CEO A. Bains below- that WBFC "made c.$700,000" from its one game vs GC, in Ballarat, in 2018? Is this possible- revenues or net profits? Could a Tas. team achieve similar benefits for 1 home game?

I think the financial details ("multi million dollar sponsorship") of the Footscray games in Ballarat deal are in this Link. Behind a paywall, can anyone open it?

Anything is possible, as a one off, but expecting best case results, across the board in all situations just isn't going to happen.

But hey, in your scenario...if they made 700K, and were paid 300K+, that's less than 400K made from the game (in a way that would translate to a Tas team, that wouldn't get paid 'extra' to play at either ground). You scoffed when I suggested 375K earlier...and now you think 400K is good?

6. This is further evidence that a Tasmanian 19th team might be able to achieve VERY strong stadia financial returns if Bellarive & YP attract crowds averaging 25,000, in 28,000 stadia.
As twice in 1970 & 1979, the TFL GF's in Hobart had crowds of 24,413 & 24,968 respectively (when Hobart's population was much smaller), a good case can be made that Bellarive should be a 30,000 capacity stadium (& many MORE mainland AFL tourists would attend both in the future- probably hardly any mainlanders attended these 2 large 1970's GF crowds).

Close to a 30,000 attendance, it would attract even better stadium financial returns for the Tas. team. Nearly $900,000 per game, perhaps (cf Footscray being paid c. $300,000+ for a crowd of 11,000, or less).
Again, you're translating one off best case events and projecting that they'd happen when it was regular and routine...

Sure, if you take the best possible case, for every form of revenue, then you could probably argue that a team almost anywhere could well be viable. But anyone doing financial projections based on best possible scenarios is a fool who will go broke very quickly.

Think what the story will be in 10 or 20 years after the team has formed, when the initial glow and excitement about the new club has worn off, and the club is having an extended streak at the lower end of the ladder (as all clubs do at some point, especially poorer clubs). Factor in that the population and economy in Tas has fallen even further behind the rest of Aus (in keeping with most ABS projections), then tell me how they'll be measuring up against other clubs.
 

Tasmanian saint

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In any comparison, Geelong is larger...it's also worth noting that Geelong's finances aren't exactly brilliant..indeed, when you make consideration for their long run of success, it's quite poor....Do you really think being a downsized version of that is the argument you want to put?
You make very ill informed posts have you ever stepped foot in Tasmania ? Especially recently I don’t think you have a great deal of knowledge of the place or Tasmanian football just love reading stats of paper that are meaningless!
 

Tasmanian saint

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In any comparison, Geelong is larger...it's also worth noting that Geelong's finances aren't exactly brilliant..indeed, when you make consideration for their long run of success, it's quite poor....Do you really think being a downsized version of that is the argument you want to put?
Also can you explain how exactly is Geelong larger then the whole state of Tasmania ? 😂
 

BringBackTorps

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In any comparison, Geelong is larger...it's also worth noting that Geelong's finances aren't exactly brilliant..indeed, when you make consideration for their long run of success, it's quite poor....Do you really think being a downsized version of that is the argument you want to put?
1.So, you do not have any evidence that more games being played at Docklands would not be possible, due to concerns over the surface.
(Most of the new Thur. night games will simply be DS daytime weekend games transferred to Thur. night)

Tas. will probably be admitted to the AFL c. 2025 (assuming it can convince the AFL the team can have sustainable revenues of c. $40,000,000 pa, which I think it will).

The AFL will probably create many more PRIME TIME Thur. night time slots, at DS- VERY valuable for the AFL Rights $, which will cause the AFL to have a favourable disposition to the Tas. 19th team bid.

Ditto, the expected strong increase (quantity & quality) in Tas. drafted player nos. can have an ascribed (but indirect) monetary value for the AFL also.
(As per AFL Commission Chairman R. Goyder saying in Sept.2019 the 9th game pw- 22 games pa- is worth c. $54,000,000 pa for the AFL; & GWS CEO D. Mathews said this value was c. $60,000,000- both comments, almost certainly, include indirect financial benefits of expansion. You have not challenged this. See my post # 937 above).

2. & 3. Geelong is a regional city, with a population much smaller than Tas.- but it is, usually, competitive & profitable, & attracts good crowds- but very rarely above 32,000. It is a reasonable comparison.

Tas. will likely attract permanent, strong Tas. govt. financial support- due to the VERY significant tourism benefits Tas. will obtain from visiting mainand AFL fans; so it is in a better financial position than Geelong, re govt. support.
Unlike Geelong, it can be expected the new team will not be paying anything for stadia improvements- the State govt. will contribute most; & the Fed. LNP Sports Minister has expressed willingness, also, to fund major AFL infrastructure in Tas.

You have not attempted to challenge these points, so I assume you accept their validity.

4. & 5. Footscray, when it plays at Ballarat, attracts profits over $300,000+ per game (& possibly much more, re Bains' comments)- even if the crowd is ONLY c. 11,000 there! You have not challenged this.
Tas. crowds will have much higher home averages than Ballarat, so can expect superior profits per game.

I will comment further, after I have been able to see The Age article listed above, which provides details on the Footscray deal with the Vic. govt.

What do you think will be the average crowd home crowds in Tas., when they win c. 10 games pa (assume both Bellarive & YP are increased to c. 28,000 capacity)?
Do you think their average game profits will be better than the profits Footscray make at Ballarat (for a crowd of less than 11,000)?
 
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Rob

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It is due to the grass banks i reckon. Would be fantastic ignoring the cost. Looks amazing.

Website so people can view. www.taspark.com.au

btw, this is a private company plans. The Tas government are keeping very quiet about what they will actually do with the site.
That costs half a billion dollars?

No wonder nothing ever gets built there. That's insane.
 

Mr Taswegian

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That costs half a billion dollars?

No wonder nothing ever gets built there. That's insane.
. The Tasmanian Government has ruled the stadium out,they have said they will not be changing the plans they have for Macquarie point,if Hobart wants a new stadium it will need to be built elsewhere.
 

Walshawk

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Well that's ok I guess, but it won't be Canberra. The AFL are in control of that via GWS.

What about a place like Bendigo? It is a great place with good footy facilities. QE Oval wouldn't need much to get up to AFL levels.
If he AFL is serious about gaining traction in Western Sydney, GWS needs to be rebranded Western Sydney, then play more games in Sydney.

I love QE - and Bendigo used to be in our zone. But all it has is one small heratige stand. Virtually starting from scratch there as far as facilities go. The oval in Gippsland where the had the BBL game last summer would e more likely. Albury is a great sport for a secondary market but Lavington is too far out of town and has really small playing field that would not suit our game.
 

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