Tasmania Tasmanian AFL Team, could it happen?

[madmug]

Im not locking any threads on the discussion in place, this one for example will remain open. Posters will be able to find it. We just arent going to have a new soapbox every time someone complains theres no team in Tasmania,

BF is full of 'soap boxes'. Its a big part of BF.

If such expansion discussions are so painful for you then fine, do your thing.

The AFL created the mess here & dont really want to know about it either.

So I doubt your comments would surprise anyone on BF in the slightest.

 

[The_Wookie]

BF is full of 'soap boxes'. Its a big part of BF.

It IS, but Bigfooty mods do tend to come down on the same subject coming up where existing threads exist. All im saying is I will be enforcing that. You can still have your circular discussions in this thread.

 

[madmug]

It IS, but Bigfooty mods do tend to come down on the same subject coming up where existing threads exist. All im saying is I will be enforcing that. You can still have your circular discussions in this thread.

I like to help inform those who only get one message on repeat, repeat, repeat, from a self serving AFL.
Also to inform people who are stuck in a cyclical stereotypical view of things.

 

[freddy mercury]

Hope so, Supercoach rookies will be easy!

 

[telsor]

Once again though, why would we get rid of the smaller Victorian clubs only to replace them with an even smaller Tassie team which also won't come close to matching the growth of the bigger clubs?



That quote was in regards to bringing in two extra teams and having 10 games a week. Replacing a Melbourne club with Tassie would probably be even worse, as it would almost certainly mean more of the bigger games would be shifted to Etihad to replace the 11 home games a year of whichever team got destroyed (i'm assuming we're talking Saints/North/Dogs here). The amount of resentment towards a Tassie team for not only destroying a ~100+ year old club, but also being the reason that Pies/Hawks/Tiges/Dees/Blues/Dons would need to make up 11 Etihad games a year, would be remarkable. That loss of revenue, plus a reduction for Hawthorn/North for no more Tassie games/memberships would means less pie to go around, and a Tassie team that almost certainly requires more money to kick start them.

As for TV revenue, it's difficult to do more than speculate. As per Wookie's post above, Tassie being counted as regional viewers, and the loss because of guaranteeing Tassie games be shown in Tassie are two big concerns. A third WA team may in time grow to a reasonable level, but destroying two Vic teams to achieve that would leave a horrible taste in the mouth, and would intensify all the problems created by destroying one Vic club. Imagine having to replace 22 Etihad games. The Vic clubs would never let that happen, because it would screw every single one of them.

Ultimately the question should be why should we accept destroying a club and putting most other clubs in a worse off position, just to create a Tassie team that will almost certainly be a have-not that constantly needs handouts?

Now that the league owns the ground, the loss of Etihad games would have a direct effect on the leagues bottom line. Losing 1 club worth of games would probably cost the league millions from that alone. The clubs mightn't have had a good deal there, but clearly there is money being made.

Also worth remembering that if the financially weak clubs get dropped, then the minimum financial standard to field a club would rise, making it even tougher for a Tas club to make the grade, needing to be better than the 12th best 'heartland club' (probably a fair bit better..you wouldn't accept a new club expecting it be the worst after all), rather than the 14th best.

 

[madmug]

I said earlier, the chance of a balanced 18 team league is impossible given the politics that prevail within Melbourne. The AFL made a half baked attempt at it but had no real guts to do the job.
WA3 & Tas1

 

[Slax]

It will happen one of two ways, AFL goes to 20 teams or if GC continue to struggle financially and crowds fail to improve they pull the pin on them and bring in a Tassie team.

 

[madmug]

It will happen one of two ways, AFL goes to 20 teams or if GC continue to struggle financially and crowds fail to improve they pull the pin on them and bring in a Tassie team.

That sounds ok from a business sense, but given the AFL propensity to never be wrong, they'll just bankroll clubs to make up the numbers both within & outside their emotional heartland.
WA3 & Tas1

 

[threenewpadlocks]

If 11 games are played in Tassie what's the guarantee that the crowds will remain strong beyond the first handful of games?
I'm sure there's Tassie-based fans who base their entire year around the fixture, choose not to do this or that so they can get to 3+ games in their city.

But if going to 3 or 4 games is enough for a typical fan, there's diminishing returns for going to every game. Fans will be happy to go to 4 games and then when it's Tasmania vs Gold Coast in round 21 with both teams not making finals will you really still get 10,000+ fans?

How does the impact of travelling North and Hawks fans change? Would the growth in Tassie fans supporting a Tassie team rather than a "FIFO" team even match the amount of fans who actually fly in from Melbourne to support their team?

This is where the arguments like the relative success of the BBL fall away. It's not 11 games, it's 4. It hasn't proved itself to be attractive to fans over a longer period of time.

 

[madmug]

If 11 games are played in Tassie what's the guarantee that the crowds will remain strong beyond the first handful of games?
I'm sure there's Tassie-based fans who base their entire year around the fixture, choose not to do this or that so they can get to 3+ games in their city.

But if going to 3 or 4 games is enough for a typical fan, there's diminishing returns for going to every game. Fans will be happy to go to 4 games and then when it's Tasmania vs Gold Coast in round 21 with both teams not making finals will you really still get 10,000+ fans?

How does the impact of travelling North and Hawks fans change? Would the growth in Tassie fans supporting a Tassie team rather than a "FIFO" team even match the amount of fans who actually fly in from Melbourne to support their team?

This is where the arguments like the relative success of the BBL fall away. It's not 11 games, it's 4. It hasn't proved itself to be attractive to fans over a longer period of time.

Tasmania is intense AR territory. I'd back attendances for a Tasmanian club to be maintained fairly well. We're looking at 5-6 games a season in either Launceston or Hobart. Its not overkill in one place. I'd back a base crowd of minimum 10k if things are real bad in a season, & Tassie V a Fremantle or a GWS in the last game of a season, plus Inter & intra state visitors-13-15k. Remember that other clubs would play in say Hobart once in 2 years, likewise in Launceston. Thus a better chance of visiting than say Hawk supporters flying into Launceston 4 times a year. That was always going to fall.
So I'd generally expect 20k+ would be the norm.
Given our love of AR, I'd expect stadiums to be improved & increased. Crowds of 25k wouldnt be beyond us.
I look at the old SANFL & WAFL GF crowds & compare them to AFL crowds now. The old TFL which often got 20k up to the record 24900 odd in 1979. A club game here with Akermanis playing drew 8500 paying & some 3000 kids, so 10500. VFL finals around 11k about 12 years ago. People will go given the right reasons.
I note on saturday night the SEABL basketball moved back to the DEC stadium for the start of the season. They were playing at the netball centre infront of 500-1000max. The DEC hold 5000 but they set it up for some 2200 people, they drew a full house of that 2200!. Thats way above normal SEABL crowds anywhere. That shows people will go to things given the right facilities. Their is a push to get back to the NBL so that wouldnt dent their chances.

 

[Slax]

That sounds ok from a business sense, but given the AFL propensity to never be wrong, they'll just bankroll clubs to make up the numbers both within & outside their emotional heartland.
WA3 & Tas1

Be interesting to see what the FFA do about expansion into Hobart, that might very much force the AFL's hand if they get up and running and draw decent crowds.

 

[madmug]

Be interesting to see what the FFA do about expansion into Hobart, that might very much force the AFL's hand if they get up and running and draw decent crowds.

I'd really be surprised with an A-league team. I dont really care 'cause I wouldnt go. It bores me to shreds. But as a marketing thing, I just dont see it getting enough interest. They had 6k at the last Victory preseason game here. But that means little in reality. I dont see 10-15k regularly in a stadium in Hobart, I just dont.
But thats me & my friends & people I deal with. Good luck if they get a team & stadium, but no interest to me.

 

[telsor]

I'd really be surprised with an A-league team. I dont really care 'cause I wouldnt go. It bores me to shreds. But as a marketing thing, I just dont see it getting enough interest. They had 6k at the last Victory preseason game here. But that means little in reality. I dont see 10-15k regularly in a stadium in Hobart, I just dont.
But thats me & my friends & people I deal with. Good luck if they get a team & stadium, but no interest to me.

Yep, getting about 5% of the locals to turn up, week in, week out is a big ask for any sport (AFL doesn't get that), but for a game that's 2nd in the hearts and minds of the locals, it's practically impossible.

Lack of competition could boost it up a little, and there would be long term growth in the penetration into the market, but really, the A League just isn't financially strong enough to provide such support/investment on a long term basis (Unlike the AFL in NSW/QLD).

 

[madmug]

Yep, getting about 5% of the locals to turn up, week in, week out is a big ask for any sport (AFL doesn't get that), but for a game that's 2nd in the hearts and minds of the locals, it's practically impossible.

Lack of competition could boost it up a little, and there would be long term growth in the penetration into the market, but really, the A League just isn't financially strong enough to provide such support/investment on a long term basis (Unlike the AFL in NSW/QLD).

A-league couldn't carry Townsville or GC. I think even the AFL may tire of carrying so many clubs for so long.
NRL is probably in the worst position, except maybe for RU.

 

[BobbyMorri]

oh may, telsor and madmug agree on something. never thought i see the day

on the a-league bid, the aim was to make a profit on a 5K average attendance. that shouldnt be too much to ask, especially if it in the city centre. the friendlies plus FFA Cup games showcase that should be achievable throughout the season. now, that was when they wanted to play at NHO(North Hobart Oval). last time i heard, they now want to build a new low cost 10-15K stadium near NHO near the highway. that was a month ago. Wilkie has urged the state government to put words into actions or actual plans but nothing has happened since. The bid looks doomed TBH. even if they managed to get the funding for either NHO or the Domain, they would have to convince the FFA to not expand into South Sydney/Geelong/3rd Melb team(Dandenong area)/Ipswich/2nd Brisbane team and sacrifice 5 mil from fox sports which only comes from one of those 3 cities. plus you are facing Gallop metrics man, who is all about million population centres. plus the fact the FFA are a basket case facing battles from both within and outside.

the best hope would be in the form of an NPL(national Premier league) 2nd tier. but that is a whole different kettle of fish and also very unlikely.

NBL is looking the most likely and achievable. Bartlett is doing well and has a clear plan in place. but their gaze seems to be more interested in Asia.

 

[telsor]

oh may, telsor and madmug agree on something. never thought i see the day

Pretty sure the sun rose in the west this morning.

 

[Slax]

A-league couldn't carry Townsville or GC. I think even the AFL may tire of carrying so many clubs for so long.
NRL is probably in the worst position, except maybe for RU.

Gold Coast is a financial black hole, FFA have even said that they have no intention of going back into that market. Townsville had other issues, but is on the cards to come back in when the league expands to 14 or 16 teams.

NRL has a war chest almost as big as the AFL, remember their tv rights deal wasn't a lot less than the AFL one per season and with less clubs to support it makes it better.

The ARU is in big trouble, they are desperately hoping that SARU agree to cut the number of sides back to a 15 team competition so they can kill of Western Force who are in massive financial trouble.

 

[madmug]

If the Aleague was to stimulate a ground being built & a team to be started here, It would be the effective death of AF, in Southern Tasmania at least. As it is, its on its death bed.
Thanks Andrew & Gil.
It really started with the loss of the bulk of school football. Gary Davidson caused that in the mid 1990's. Making his footy pathway via clubs & his Mariners empire at the top.
That was the big start of the damage. Then as the AFL grew in media exposure, local football suffered as we had no real AFL here, unlike WA & SA which saw the AFL replace WAFL & SANFL in the peoples minds. All we got was FIFO carpetbaggers, & that was in Launceston, so Hobart had no AFL presence at all for some 15 years their abouts.
Never a plan for Tasmanian football, only a plan for the AFL to pillage. Even now clubs get no clearance fees when the pokie & AFL funded clubs come calling.
Its simply unsustainable.
The local state soccer league has 3 northern & 5 southern clubs, it should be 6 & 2 if performance was any guide. That shows the growth of soccer in the south. The mariners & cricket currently get most of their kids from the north.
How obvious a problem does it need to be to get the desk idiots to do their job? promote the game. They are focused on womens football! Geez talk about watching Rome burn.
I'm just aghast at their dumbness or wilful ignorance.

 

[The_Wookie]

NRL has a war chest almost as big as the AFL, remember their tv rights deal wasn't a lot less than the AFL one per season and with less clubs to support it makes it better.

TV rights may be similar now, but the off field revenue gap is still massive. And the NRL warchest isnt anywhere near what it once was, they've been dipping into it for various things including the setting up of their own media unit.

 

[Slax]

If the Aleague was to stimulate a ground being built & a team to be started here, It would be the effective death of AF, in Southern Tasmania at least. As it is, its on its death bed.
Thanks Andrew & Gil.
It really started with the loss of the bulk of school football. Gary Davidson caused that in the mid 1990's. Making his footy pathway via clubs & his Mariners empire at the top.
That was the big start of the damage. Then as the AFL grew in media exposure, local football suffered as we had no real AFL here, unlike WA & SA which saw the AFL replace WAFL & SANFL in the peoples minds. All we got was FIFO carpetbaggers, & that was in Launceston, so Hobart had no AFL presence at all for some 15 years their abouts.
Never a plan for Tasmanian football, only a plan for the AFL to pillage. Even now clubs get no clearance fees when the pokie & AFL funded clubs come calling.
Its simply unsustainable.
The local state soccer league has 3 northern & 5 southern clubs, it should be 6 & 2 if performance was any guide. That shows the growth of soccer in the south. The mariners & cricket currently get most of their kids from the north.
How obvious a problem does it need to be to get the desk idiots to do their job? promote the game. They are focused on womens football! Geez talk about watching Rome burn.
I'm just aghast at their dumbness or wilful ignorance.

Tasmania government has promised the FFA if a licence was granted then North Hobart Oval would be redeveloped to allow for better use as a rectangular sporting ground.

Tassie is ripe for the picking as the AFL are only using it prop up the financial disaster that is North Melbourne FC.

 

[Slax]

TV rights may be similar now, but the off field revenue gap is still massive. And the NRL warchest isnt anywhere near what it once was, they've been dipping into it for various things including the setting up of their own media unit.

AFL doesn't have much of one now either, just forked out for a stadium.

Tassie is a problem as the locals want their own team not a relocated team from Melbourne.

 

[The_Wookie]

AFL doesn't have much of one now either, just forked out for a stadium.

Took out a loan. Didnt affect their cash reserves one iota apparently.

 

[madmug]

AFL doesn't have much of one now either, just forked out for a stadium.

Tassie is a problem as the locals want their own team not a relocated team from Melbourne.

Tasmania isn't a problem for the AFL. Its just a place to rip money out of & put SFA back into it.
When asked questions, the AFL just lie & talk crap & then ignore the game here.

 

[Established1870]

Tassie is a problem as the locals want their own team not a relocated team from Melbourne.

And that's what people in the "relocate North" camp don't get (or ever will).

 

[Slax]

Tasmania isn't a problem for the AFL. Its just a place to rip money out of & put SFA back into it.
When asked questions, the AFL just lie & talk crap & then ignore the game here.

That's why if the FFA set up a side in Hobart it will make them think about the Tassie market again.

AFL actually does very little for grass roots footy in established Aussie Rules areas. A lot of metropolitan clubs in Melbourne are struggling to stay afloat.