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List Mgmt. TDK - Benchmarks for Success

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PJays

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Nov 2, 2020
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St Kilda
I'm infamous in the list management thread for my opposition to TDK's contract.

But whether we're in favour or opposed, we should ask ourselves what would change our mind? What does TDK need to achieve, or not achieve?

When we're debating in the list management thread of 2033/34, what will convince us the deal has been a success?

If you're stoked TDK has signed, what would eventually convince you it was a bad deal?

Here are my benchmarks for success

1. Individual benchmarks

TDK needs to achieve 2 of these 3 things over the next 8 years:

  • 150 games for St Kilda
  • 3 AA selections
  • 300 coaches votes

That's the type of resume you need to be one of the top players over an 8 year period, to justify being one of the most highly paid.

I'm giving him leeway with "2 out of 3".

If he has a few brilliant seasons then tapers off dramatically in his 30s, he might play 150 games and make 3 AAs but fail to reach 300 coaches votes.

If he suffers injuries but is otherwise A grade level, he might not reach 150 games but still achieve the other two.

If he's consistently playing very well, but is pipped by Xerri a few times for AA, he might play 150 games and 300 coaches votes but not get 3 AAs.

I think this is very fair.

For context, Gawn and Grundy achieved this over the last 8 years 2018-2025:

Gawn - 173 games, 7 * AA, 503 coaches votes

Grundy - 160 games, 2 * AA, 348 coaches votes

Todd Goldstein almost did this in his prime (2013- 2020) - 172 games, 259 coaches votes.

Option 2: Team success

This is the Tom Boyd option.

Like Boyd and the Bulldogs, if
the Saints win a flag with TDK playing a major role then the deal will be considered a success.

The question would remain "could they have done it with someone else", so it wouldn't necessarily be an unequivocal, indisputable success. For example if Marshall made AA for Geelong while Saints won a flag with TDK, there would still be reasonable questions about TDK's deal.

But I'd suggest if Saints win in 2026 or 2027 with TDK playing well and he barely does anything worthwhile ever again (like Boyd after 2016), Saints fans will be eternally grateful we signed him. Regardless of the theoretical question of whether we still could've won without him.

Option 3: Fail

If St Kilda makes TDK the 2nd highest paid player in the AFL on an 8 year deal then he needs to perform. He needs to be an individual star or contribute towards a St Kilda flag.

If he doesn't achieve either then it's a failure.

Thoughts?
 
TDK will only be the second highest paid player for the first 2 or 3 years of his deal at absolute most.

Sheezel, Daicos, Darcy, Jackson, Thilthorpe etc. So many young players are going to eclipse him once the front loading of TDKs contract is finished.

If he is a 5% improvement on Marshall for the next 8 years, I'd call that a good investment.

If he wins a flag with us, nothing else matters, great move.

I'm not that interested in the coaches votes because hopefully he's an exceptional player but he always misses out to guys like Nas, Phillipou, Hall, Tauru who go to the stratosphere.

I dont know of he'll make multiple AA teams, but if he's regularly making the squad I don't think we could complain.

It's a lot harder to add quality assets to your list than it is to balance the books. If we need to trade players to get the cap right we can still extract fair value asset wise in draft capital being returned.

Cap space is the best commodity to use to increase list assets by far.
 
PJays said:
I'm infamous in the list management thread for my opposition to TDK's contract.

But whether we're in favour or opposed, we should ask ourselves what would change our mind? What does TDK need to achieve, or not achieve?

When we're debating in the list management thread of 2033/34, what will convince us the deal has been a success?

If you're stoked TDK has signed, what would eventually convince you it was a bad deal?

Here are my benchmarks for success

1. Individual benchmarks

TDK needs to achieve 2 of these 3 things over the next 8 years:

  • 150 games for St Kilda
  • 3 AA selections
  • 300 coaches votes

That's the type of resume you need to be one of the top players over an 8 year period, to justify being one of the most highly paid.

I'm giving him leeway with "2 out of 3".

If he has a few brilliant seasons then tapers off dramatically in his 30s, he might play 150 games and make 3 AAs but fail to reach 300 coaches votes.

If he suffers injuries but is otherwise A grade level, he might not reach 150 games but still achieve the other two.

If he's consistently playing very well, but is pipped by Xerri a few times for AA, he might play 150 games and 300 coaches votes but not get 3 AAs.

I think this is very fair.

For context, Gawn and Grundy achieved this over the last 8 years 2018-2025:

Gawn - 173 games, 7 * AA, 503 coaches votes

Grundy - 160 games, 2 * AA, 348 coaches votes

Todd Goldstein almost did this in his prime (2013- 2020) - 172 games, 259 coaches votes.

Option 2: Team success

This is the Tom Boyd option.

Like Boyd and the Bulldogs, if
the Saints win a flag with TDK playing a major role then the deal will be considered a success.

The question would remain "could they have done it with someone else", so it wouldn't necessarily be an unequivocal, indisputable success. For example if Marshall made AA for Geelong while Saints won a flag with TDK, there would still be reasonable questions about TDK's deal.

But I'd suggest if Saints win in 2026 or 2027 with TDK playing well and he barely does anything worthwhile ever again (like Boyd after 2016), Saints fans will be eternally grateful we signed him. Regardless of the theoretical question of whether we still could've won without him.

Option 3: Fail

If St Kilda makes TDK the 2nd highest paid player in the AFL on an 8 year deal then he needs to perform. He needs to be an individual star or contribute towards a St Kilda flag.

If he doesn't achieve either then it's a failure.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
Personally I'm just looking for him to contribute to the team whilst pissing you off at the same time for the lol's. That's enough for me.
 

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Armoooo said:
TDK will only be the second highest paid player for the first 2 or 3 years of his deal at absolute most.

Sheezel, Daicos, Darcy, Jackson, Thilthorpe etc. So many young players are going to eclipse him once the front loading of TDKs contract is finished.
Click to expand...
Cal Twomey suggested TDK’s salary reduces in the final years of his deal.

But his salary will remain in the top 10 or 20 in the competition for the next 5+ years- unless the cap jumps astronomically from 2028 which appears unlikely.

Armoooo said:
If we need to trade players to get the cap right we can still extract fair value asset wise in draft capital being returned.

Cap space is the best commodity to use to increase list assets by far.
Click to expand...
What do you mean by this?

Firstly, if St Kilda needs to trade TDK because he isn't performing, we can't just trade him. He has to agree. That's in the rules.

Secondly assuming he agrees, which club will want his massive contract if he isn't performing?

You say we could "extract fair value" in "draft capital". That's unlikely.

When Collingwood traded Brodie Grundy at the end of 2022, they got pick 27

But Grundy was a 2 time AA and B&F winner (2018 and 2019) who had finished 7th and 6th in Collingwood’s B&F in 2020 and 2021.

TDK hasn’t achieved anything like that. So if he’s struggling in 1 or 2 years time, why would anyone give up pick 27?

And Collingwood is still paying some of his salary- even though he’s changed clubs twice.

Edit:

After re-reading your post, you seem to be assuming TDK is performing and earning his contract. If he is, we could trade other players and get draft capital in return. And I wouldn't be worried.

But that's assuming rather than answering the question I'm asking here- what's an acceptable level of performance given his contract?
 
Last edited:
Winmar2Lockett said:
FFS the bloke isn't even officially a St Kilda player & you're setting these ridiculous hoops for him to jump through.
Click to expand...
Yet to see him in a Saints jumper so that’s a fail from me.

Needs to pick up his game, and quickly, if he is to meet these KPIs 😬
 
Winmar2Lockett said:
FFS the bloke isn't even officially a St Kilda player & you're setting these ridiculous hoops for him to jump through.
Click to expand...
Why are they ridiculous hoops?

How about you make a better suggestion.

What does TDK need to do, in your opinion, to make this a good move for St Kilda?
 
kernelT said:
St Kilda winning a flag is the only KPI I care about, couldn't give a malcom blight about any individual accolades.
Click to expand...
Fair enough

But we still rate individual players and their contributions.

Sinclair and Wilkie have never achieved much success with St Kilda, but I'm very happy with what they do, given they're not in the top 40 highest salaries in the comp (according to the Herald Sun).
 
PJays said:
Fair enough

But we still rate individual players and their contributions.

Sinclair and Wilkie have never achieved much success with St Kilda, but I'm very happy with what they do, given they're not in the top 40 highest salaries in the comp (according to the Herald Sun).
Click to expand...
Let's say we get into a position to challenge and make top 4 over the next few years… adding TDK for no draft capital and turning Marshall into into a mid will have been good business.

Wilkie is the best defender in the comp and couldn't crack the AA squad this year so that metric is garbage IMO.
 
PJays said:
I'm infamous in the list management thread for my opposition to TDK's contract.

But whether we're in favour or opposed, we should ask ourselves what would change our mind? What does TDK need to achieve, or not achieve?

When we're debating in the list management thread of 2033/34, what will convince us the deal has been a success?

If you're stoked TDK has signed, what would eventually convince you it was a bad deal?

Here are my benchmarks for success

1. Individual benchmarks

TDK needs to achieve 2 of these 3 things over the next 8 years:

  • 150 games for St Kilda
  • 3 AA selections
  • 300 coaches votes

That's the type of resume you need to be one of the top players over an 8 year period, to justify being one of the most highly paid.

I'm giving him leeway with "2 out of 3".

If he has a few brilliant seasons then tapers off dramatically in his 30s, he might play 150 games and make 3 AAs but fail to reach 300 coaches votes.

If he suffers injuries but is otherwise A grade level, he might not reach 150 games but still achieve the other two.

If he's consistently playing very well, but is pipped by Xerri a few times for AA, he might play 150 games and 300 coaches votes but not get 3 AAs.

I think this is very fair.

For context, Gawn and Grundy achieved this over the last 8 years 2018-2025:

Gawn - 173 games, 7 * AA, 503 coaches votes

Grundy - 160 games, 2 * AA, 348 coaches votes

Todd Goldstein almost did this in his prime (2013- 2020) - 172 games, 259 coaches votes.

Option 2: Team success

This is the Tom Boyd option.

Like Boyd and the Bulldogs, if
the Saints win a flag with TDK playing a major role then the deal will be considered a success.

The question would remain "could they have done it with someone else", so it wouldn't necessarily be an unequivocal, indisputable success. For example if Marshall made AA for Geelong while Saints won a flag with TDK, there would still be reasonable questions about TDK's deal.

But I'd suggest if Saints win in 2026 or 2027 with TDK playing well and he barely does anything worthwhile ever again (like Boyd after 2016), Saints fans will be eternally grateful we signed him. Regardless of the theoretical question of whether we still could've won without him.

Option 3: Fail

If St Kilda makes TDK the 2nd highest paid player in the AFL on an 8 year deal then he needs to perform. He needs to be an individual star or contribute towards a St Kilda flag.

If he doesn't achieve either then it's a failure.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
I’d like to see him in a saints tracksuit, smiling and having a coffee with his team mates. Perhaps he purchases that coffee for everybody the first time, unless NAS is there, in that case he can get the next one.

If he can do that it’s a great start. Maybe give JSOS a hug for the media and LOLs.

After that let’s just chill out and enjoy the ride. Come back to this after four years if you must.
 
kernelT said:
Wilkie is the best defender in the comp and couldn't crack the AA squad this year so that metric is garbage IMO.
Click to expand...
Agreed- It's subjective and sometimes wide consensus from the footy public is defied by AA selectors

That's another reason I allowed 2 out of 3.

But generally speaking, if you're a good enough player it'll show in AA selections and coaches votes.

Those are the best, and most objective possible measures of who the good players are.
 

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I don't care about the cash.

We have to overpay to keep players like TDK from going to the Cats, Bombers, Hawks etc The Blues would have paid him $1.2 so we blew them outta the park with a front loaded deal.

If TDK can be our version of Luke Jackson we are laughing.

If he's just RoMa 2.0 for the next 5-7 years that's fine.

The flow on effect though means that we are in a better spot to recruit next year. And the year after. And the year after.

After all the reports about us missing out on half a dozen targets, landing multiple players (TDK, JSOS, Ryan... Flanders? Aleer? CMac?) and keeping Naz makes us that much more enticing.
 
L_W_P said:
The flow on effect though means that we are in a better spot to recruit next year. And the year after. And the year after.
Click to expand...
That depends how much of the cap TDK is chewing up.

L_W_P said:
After all the reports about us missing out on half a dozen targets, landing multiple players (TDK, JSOS, Ryan... Flanders? Aleer? CMac?) and keeping Naz makes us that much more enticing.
Click to expand...
St Kilda already landed Hill and Crouch previously. Those guys were both B&F winners, and Hill was a 3* premiership player. They'd achieved more than TDK or JSOS, or Ryan or Aleer! Not a B&F between them. Have any even gotten close?

There seems to be this manufactured inferiority complex amongst St Kilda fans, spurred on by media. It's culminated in great relief that some players finally decided to come to Moorabbin.

Except, as I noted, good players have come previously

Who cares if a few players recently decided they were happy at their current clubs?

St Kilda didn't have as much to prove as people thought
 
Option 2 thanks.

All day every day.

Don’t care who’s paying well or who’s in the team let’s just win a bloody flag.
 
PJays said:
Agreed- It's subjective and sometimes wide consensus from the footy public is defied by AA selectors

That's another reason I allowed 2 out of 3.

But generally speaking, if you're a good enough player it'll show in AA selections and coaches votes.

Those are the best, and most objective possible measures of who the good players are.
Click to expand...
I reckon I'd just like to see him play 150+ games for us, that would mean his body has been well managed and he's been resilient. If you think of the massive contract like a sign-on fee it doesn't really build the expectation that he should be winning brownlows and AA's.

Not many ruckmen impact W/L consistently so it was a strange lever to pull IMO, but he can obviously play on top of being tall.
 

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I don't think it's particularly healthy to judge a player by what he's earning.

Tom will be a Saint so he has my support.

I had question marks over his contract but it's done now. I just hope he kills it and loves his time at our club.

Brad Hill was ridiculously vilified because of the contract he was on when he came over. It wasn't cool... at all.

Watching the video Stav posted with his highlights has me looking forward to his tap work. Hopefully our coaches have everything in place for Tom and our midfield to shine.
 
PJays said:
I'm infamous in the list management thread for my opposition to TDK's contract.

But whether we're in favour or opposed, we should ask ourselves what would change our mind? What does TDK need to achieve, or not achieve?

When we're debating in the list management thread of 2033/34, what will convince us the deal has been a success?

If you're stoked TDK has signed, what would eventually convince you it was a bad deal?

Here are my benchmarks for success

1. Individual benchmarks

TDK needs to achieve 2 of these 3 things over the next 8 years:

  • 150 games for St Kilda
  • 3 AA selections
  • 300 coaches votes

That's the type of resume you need to be one of the top players over an 8 year period, to justify being one of the most highly paid.

I'm giving him leeway with "2 out of 3".

If he has a few brilliant seasons then tapers off dramatically in his 30s, he might play 150 games and make 3 AAs but fail to reach 300 coaches votes.

If he suffers injuries but is otherwise A grade level, he might not reach 150 games but still achieve the other two.

If he's consistently playing very well, but is pipped by Xerri a few times for AA, he might play 150 games and 300 coaches votes but not get 3 AAs.

I think this is very fair.

For context, Gawn and Grundy achieved this over the last 8 years 2018-2025:

Gawn - 173 games, 7 * AA, 503 coaches votes

Grundy - 160 games, 2 * AA, 348 coaches votes

Todd Goldstein almost did this in his prime (2013- 2020) - 172 games, 259 coaches votes.

Option 2: Team success

This is the Tom Boyd option.

Like Boyd and the Bulldogs, if
the Saints win a flag with TDK playing a major role then the deal will be considered a success.

The question would remain "could they have done it with someone else", so it wouldn't necessarily be an unequivocal, indisputable success. For example if Marshall made AA for Geelong while Saints won a flag with TDK, there would still be reasonable questions about TDK's deal.

But I'd suggest if Saints win in 2026 or 2027 with TDK playing well and he barely does anything worthwhile ever again (like Boyd after 2016), Saints fans will be eternally grateful we signed him. Regardless of the theoretical question of whether we still could've won without him.

Option 3: Fail

If St Kilda makes TDK the 2nd highest paid player in the AFL on an 8 year deal then he needs to perform. He needs to be an individual star or contribute towards a St Kilda flag.

If he doesn't achieve either then it's a failure.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
I am pretty sure the club is more interested in him helping us be a top 6 side in contested marks, hit outs to advantage, first hands at stoppage and clearances whilst also improving the quality of clearance.

Whether that results in All Australian nods, BnF’s or coaches votes really doesn’t matter. He was recruited to address clear team deficiencies not to come and be an award chaser. His impact on our midfield is how he should be judged in the early stages of his contract.
 
Sully111 said:
I don't think it's particularly healthy to judge a player by what he's earning.

Tom will be a Saint so he has my support.

I had question marks over his contract but it's done now. I just hope he kills it and loves his time at our club.

Brad Hill was ridiculously vilified because of the contract he was on when he came over. It wasn't cool... at all.

Watching the video Stav posted with his highlights has me looking forward to his tap work. Hopefully our coaches have everything in place for Tom and our midfield to shine.
Click to expand...
So much this.
 
Sully111 said:
I don't think it's particularly healthy to judge a player by what he's earning.

Tom will be a Saint so he has my support.

I had question marks over his contract but it's done now. I just hope he kills it and loves his time at our club.

Brad Hill was ridiculously vilified because of the contract he was on when he came over. It wasn't cool... at all.

Watching the video Stav posted with his highlights has me looking forward to his tap work. Hopefully our coaches have everything in place for Tom and our midfield to shine.
Click to expand...
I won't be cheering any less loudly after a great TDK goal than a great King or Sharman goal.

But as fans we should demand greatness from our club.

And that includes thinking logically about list decisions, not emotionally.

The successful clubs create competitive advantages off field, and make shrewd decisions.

So I'd argue the complete opposite of you.

It's unhealthy to not be thinking about player contracts and how the list is being compiled. Or more specifically, unhealthy to not be actively demanding our club does those things well.
 

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List Mgmt. TDK - Benchmarks for Success

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