Analysis Team Rankings 2017

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grumbleguts said:
There's an article on the main bigfooty page stating that Port Adelaide enters the top four on the squiggle. My system has had them in the top four from the beginning.
Click to expand...
Does your system care about last year's form?
 
Gralin said:
Does your system care about last year's form?
Click to expand...
No. I could, easily, but the teams are different and find that information from last year largely irrelevant where form is concerned. (I might do up a table that includes say the last 5 home and away rounds for last season and compare it to the same data from this year in five rounds' time and then compare both to the end of the season and see which predicts the final outcome more accurately.
 
grumbleguts said:
No. I could, easily, but the teams are different and find that information from last year largely irrelevant where form is concerned. (I might do up a table that includes say the last 5 home and away rounds for last season and compare it to the same data from this year in five rounds' time and then compare both to the end of the season and see which predicts the final outcome more accurately.
Click to expand...

I wish I remembered more of my HS math. It's been so long and I've only used algebra for 20 years. Cobwebs rule my brain.

If you're looking for suggestions on extra credit problems for the students (which you probably aren't) then I've got one. I was going to suggest tiering the value of wins but I think that is picked up by the secondary+ vectors, right?

My suggestion is for them to find a way to weight late season form. Some teams pick it up and some teams are broken down by injury. But with a binary vector (even taking the size of win it's still a yes/no, I believe) then games at the beginning of the year have the same weight as late games. The value of victories is cumulative so doesn't this lead to teams which get an early start staying on top? It's sort of like compound interest, I think, where early victories, particularly over good teams, have a cumulative effect as the secondary team racks up wins.

I know the current method works, because it does, but I can't help but think that it is overly generous to the quick starter. Am I seeing it wrong?
 

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grumbleguts said:
No. I could, easily, but the teams are different and find that information from last year largely irrelevant where form is concerned. (I might do up a table that includes say the last 5 home and away rounds for last season and compare it to the same data from this year in five rounds' time and then compare both to the end of the season and see which predicts the final outcome more accurately.
Click to expand...
I ask because the squiggle does, so if a team is a lot better or worse than last year the squiggle has to adjust to that, it doesn't look at this season completely in isolation
 
Gralin said:
I ask because the squiggle does, so if a team is a lot better or worse than last year the squiggle has to adjust to that, it doesn't look at this season completely in isolation
Click to expand...
I will satisfy your curiosity later tonight, at the moment I am in parent teacher interviews, and as I am playing the teacher role, I need to pay close attention to what I am doing.
 
grumbleguts said:
I will satisfy your curiosity later tonight, at the moment I am in parent teacher interviews, and as I am playing the teacher role, I need to pay close attention to what I am doing.
Click to expand...
not a curiosity thing more a comment
your system has been on Port since Round 1
the squiggle took more convincing

your algorithm ignores last seasons form, squiggles algorithm doesn't, so I'd expect squiggle to take longer to get on Port

what will be interesting is if Port falls away whether the squiggle takes longer to get off them than your algorithm as an example
 
Gralin said:
not a curiosity thing more a comment
your system has been on Port since Round 1
the squiggle took more convincing

your algorithm ignores last seasons form, squiggles algorithm doesn't, so I'd expect squiggle to take longer to get on Port

what will be interesting is if Port falls away whether the squiggle takes longer to get off them than your algorithm as an example
Click to expand...
Yeah, essentially the squiggle thinks essendon has 12 players missing last season I did use the last five rounds initially and took them out as the season progressed. That would be laughable this season. But I am interested, so I will satisfy MY curiosity then.
 
Here's the rankings using the last five home and away matches from last season and the first five rounds from this season.

GWS Giants 42.927
Adelaide Crows 37.403
Geelong Cats 32.664
Sydney Swans 30.409
Port Adelaide 28.657
West Coast Eagles 26.568
Collingwood 23.914
Western Bulldogs 23.583
Melbourne 22.138
Richmond 20.553
Gold Coast Suns 20.173
North Melbourne 19.8
St Kilda 19.672
Hawthorn 18.763
Essendon 18.029
Fremantle 15.462
Carlton 14.802
Brisbane Lions 13.359

There is a massive change in essendon's position because essendon have their full list now. So using that data skews all other results. I am not sure it is useful.

The table with only the five rounds from this seaosn
GWS Giants 24.525
Adelaide Crows 24.378
Port Adelaide 23.713
Geelong Cats 21.741
Richmond 17.915
Gold Coast Suns 16.056
Melbourne 15.261
West Coast Eagles 15.039
Western Bulldogs 14.332
St Kilda 13.862
Essendon 13.692
North Melbourne 13.263
Fremantle 13.111
Hawthorn 12.521
Sydney Swans 12.09
Collingwood 12.007
Carlton 11.621
Brisbane Lions 10.881
 
grumbleguts said:
Updated to include rnd 6
Click to expand...

Sigh. That's depressing.

What's the best a bottom side has recovered after round 7? (I'm not looking for an exhaustive search, just trying to reset my optimism filter)
 

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OzJohnnie said:
Ok. I'm gunning for 14th, then. That will be a good finish this year, I think.
Click to expand...

Hey I think I found a silver lining!

If we finish bottom 6, we get an easier draw in 2018...not that playing bottom teams seems to be of benefit...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Hey grumbleguts a suggestion : do you think you could make this as a line graph or something to make it prettier to read?

I know it would look a bit like the squiggle, but that's a good thing, as the squiggle is much easier to follow than blocks of text. I don't know whether this is misleading or not, but it would be interesting to see the change over time more clearly.
 
Happy_Hawker said:
Hey grumbleguts a suggestion : do you think you could make this as a line graph or something to make it prettier to read?

I know it would look a bit like the squiggle, but that's a good thing, as the squiggle is much easier to follow than blocks of text. I don't know whether this is misleading or not, but it would be interesting to see the change over time more clearly.
Click to expand...
I'll see what I can do.
 
Crankyhawk said:
Is the method proprietary or just very complex to explain?
Click to expand...
Sorry Crankyhawk, I only saw this post when I was going to update to include a graph.

The method itself isn't too difficult to explain if a person has studied matrices at school. The complexity comes from not using wins and losses but rather score ratios and combining it with a mathematical technique which has been used for years to predict outcomes and rank competitors that have not faced each other by using simply wins and losses (eg chess, soccer, tennis).

The trouble is, when margins differ enormously eg afl, simply beating a team (3 point margin) doesn't reflect the quality of a team as much as thrashing them. Also it is an 18 x 18 matrix. I am happy to share the spreadsheet with anyone who wants to have a look and learn some maths.
 
Happy_Hawker said:
Hey grumbleguts a suggestion : do you think you could make this as a line graph or something to make it prettier to read?

I know it would look a bit like the squiggle, but that's a good thing, as the squiggle is much easier to follow than blocks of text. I don't know whether this is misleading or not, but it would be interesting to see the change over time more clearly.
Click to expand...
Here's a little something:
1oke48.gif

Not what I'd like to do, but as a quick fix...
1oke48
 
Updated for round 7. Much closer to the pack now. Sadly brisbane next week won't see us rise much.

A win of double brisbane's score (for typical scorelines) would put us at just above collingwood if no one else moved.
 
Round 8 updated
Crazy season to try and rank or predict anything.

But there you go.

Port have opened up a bit of a gap, and geelong have slipped back quite a bit. Brisbane look really poor.
 
Because of how bleak things look this season rankings are depressing, so as an aside I thought I'd do one of our premiership seasons round by round. (except round one, it craps itself with one round of data) which round do people want to see some glory in. (2015 is interesting as a comparison to ladder position, as it had us miles in front even early on in the season, and fremantle well below us and west coast even though fremantle were undefeated for ages.)

Which season do people want?
 
2015 sounds good.
 
grumbleguts said:
Because of how bleak things look this season rankings are depressing, so as an aside I thought I'd do one of our premiership seasons round by round. (except round one, it craps itself with one round of data) which round do people want to see some glory in. (2015 is interesting as a comparison to ladder position, as it had us miles in front even early on in the season, and fremantle well below us and west coast even though fremantle were undefeated for ages.)

Which season do people want?
Click to expand...
2019
 
OzJohnnie said:
2015 sounds good.
Click to expand...

OK So what I thought I'd do is paste each round the rankings and the ladder for that round
2015 here it is:

Round 2
Adelaide Crows 11.238
Sydney Swans 9.332
Fremantle 9.177
GWS Giants 7.923
North Melbourne 7.627
West Coast Eagles 7.58
Hawthorn 7.562
Western Bulldogs 7.091
St Kilda 6.299
Essendon 6.117
Collingwood 5.699
Richmond 5.515
Melbourne 4.924
Port Adelaide 4.731
Gold Coast Suns 4.149
Brisbane Lions 3.571
Carlton 3.531
Geelong Cats 3.493

Round 2 Ladder
AD 2 8
SY 2 8
GW 2 8
FR 2 8
WB 2 8
HW 2 4
WC 2 4
SK 2 4
RI 2 4
NM 2 4
ES 2 4
CW 2 4
ME 2 4
GC 2 0
PA 2 0
CA 2 0
BL 2 0
GE 2 0

Round 3

Adelaide Crows 15.036
Hawthorn 14.493
Fremantle 13.518
Sydney Swans 13.337
Collingwood 10.968
Richmond 10.484
GWS Giants 10.451
West Coast Eagles 10.223
North Melbourne 10.062
Essendon 9.809
Western Bulldogs 9.227
Port Adelaide 8.257
Melbourne 7.583
St Kilda 7.46
Geelong Cats 6.477
Carlton 6.215
Gold Coast Suns 6.101
Brisbane Lions 5.268

Round 3 ladder
AD 3 12
SY 3 12
FR 3 12
HW 3 8
RI 3 8
CW 3 8
GW 3 8
ES 3 8
WB 3 8
WC 3 4
NM 3 4
ME 3 4
PA 3 4
SK 3 4
GE 3 4
GC 3 0
CA 3 0
BL 3 0

Round 4

Fremantle 18.397
Hawthorn 18.131
Adelaide Crows 17.614
Sydney Swans 17.006
Western Bulldogs 16.29
GWS Giants 16.147
West Coast Eagles 15.193
Collingwood 14.605
Richmond 13.062
North Melbourne 13.032
Melbourne 12.44
Port Adelaide 12.341
Essendon 12.271
Carlton 9.965
St Kilda 9.544
Geelong Cats 8.889
Gold Coast Suns 7.981
Brisbane Lions 7.117

Round 4 ladder
FR 4 16
GW 4 12
CW 4 12
SY 4 12
AD 4 12
WB 4 12
HW 4 8
WC 4 8
RI 4 8
NM 4 8
ES 4 8
ME 4 8
PA 4 8
CA 4 4
SK 4 4
GE 4 4
GC 4 0
BL 4 0

Round 5

West Coast Eagles 26.998
Fremantle 26.515
Hawthorn 23.845
Collingwood 21.087
Sydney Swans 20.376
Western Bulldogs 20.24
Adelaide Crows 19.969
GWS Giants 17.723
Port Adelaide 17.08
North Melbourne 15.304
Essendon 15.176
Richmond 15.092
Melbourne 14.003
Geelong Cats 12.707
St Kilda 12.646
Gold Coast Suns 12.595
Carlton 11.76
Brisbane Lions 9.051

Round 5 ladder
FR 5 20
CW 5 16
WB 5 16
HW 5 12
WC 5 12
SY 5 12
AD 5 12
GW 5 12
ES 5 12
PA 5 12
RI 5 8
NM 5 8
ME 5 8
GE 5 8
GC 5 4
SK 5 4
CA 5 4
BL 5 0

Round 6
Fremantle 30.796
West Coast Eagles 30.188
Hawthorn 27.22
Sydney Swans 24.639
Adelaide Crows 23.637
Collingwood 22.664
Western Bulldogs 22.287
GWS Giants 21.529
Port Adelaide 20.568
North Melbourne 19.893
Geelong Cats 18.417
Essendon 17.44
Richmond 17.292
St Kilda 15.876
Melbourne 15.787
Gold Coast Suns 15.173
Carlton 13.451
Brisbane Lions 11.448

Round 6 ladder
FR 6 24
WC 6 16
CW 6 16
SY 6 16
AD 6 16
GW 6 16
WB 6 16
HW 6 12
NM 6 12
PA 6 12
ES 6 12
GE 6 12
RI 6 8
SK 6 8
ME 6 8
GC 6 4
CA 6 4
BL 6 4

Round 7
West Coast Eagles 40.407
Hawthorn 36.506
Fremantle 36.085
Sydney Swans 30.034
Adelaide Crows 28.458
GWS Giants 28.131
Western Bulldogs 27.381
Collingwood 26.254
North Melbourne 24.574
Port Adelaide 23.64
Richmond 21.843
Geelong Cats 21.352
Essendon 21.02
St Kilda 18.724
Melbourne 17.821
Gold Coast Suns 17.56
Brisbane Lions 16.753
Carlton 15.777

Round 7 Ladder
FR 7 28
WC 7 20
SY 7 20
AD 7 20
GW 7 20
HW 7 16
CW 7 16
WB 7 16
NM 7 16
RI 7 12
ES 7 12
PA 7 12
GE 7 12
SK 7 8
ME 7 8
BL 7 8
GC 7 4
CA 7 4

Round 8

West Coast Eagles 45.407
Hawthorn 41.14
Fremantle 40.338
Sydney Swans 35.496
GWS Giants 33.346
Collingwood 32.502
Adelaide Crows 31.903
Western Bulldogs 30.037
Richmond 27.686
Geelong Cats 27.676
North Melbourne 26.974
Essendon 25.842
Port Adelaide 25.648
Melbourne 23.07
St Kilda 21.823
Gold Coast Suns 19.846
Brisbane Lions 18.697
Carlton 17.799

Round 8 ladder
FR 8 32
WC 8 24
SY 8 24
GW 8 24
CW 8 20
AD 8 20
HW 8 16
RI 8 16
ES 8 16
GE 8 16
WB 8 16
NM 8 16
PA 8 12
ME 8 12
SK 8 8
BL 8 8
GC 8 4
CA 8 4

Round 9

West Coast Eagles 51.097
Hawthorn 47.245
Fremantle 44.788
Sydney Swans 40.537
Collingwood 36.18
Western Bulldogs 36.032
Adelaide Crows 35.42
GWS Giants 35.341
Richmond 31.843
Port Adelaide 31.6
North Melbourne 30.368
Geelong Cats 30.196
Essendon 28.776
St Kilda 24.924
Melbourne 24.788
Gold Coast Suns 21.565
Brisbane Lions 21.231
Carlton 19.78

Round 9 ladder
FR 9 36
WC 9 28
SY 9 28
CW 9 24
GW 9 24
HW 9 20
AD 9 20
RI 9 20
WB 9 20
ES 9 16
PA 9 16
GE 9 16
NM 9 16
SK 9 12
ME 9 12
BL 9 8
GC 9 4
CA 9 4

Round 10

West Coast Eagles 53.722
Hawthorn 52.416
Fremantle 46.988
Sydney Swans 46.186
Collingwood 39.495
GWS Giants 38.586
Adelaide Crows 37.733
Western Bulldogs 37.502
Richmond 37.374
Geelong Cats 36.798
Port Adelaide 36.62
North Melbourne 35.479
Essendon 30.2
Melbourne 27.303
St Kilda 26.549
Brisbane Lions 23.52
Gold Coast Suns 23.184
Carlton 22.694

Round 10 ladder
FR 10 36
SY 10 32
WC 10 28
CW 10 28
GW 10 28
HW 10 24
AD 10 24
RI 10 24
PA 10 20
GE 10 20
WB 10 20
NM 10 20
ES 10 16
SK 10 12
ME 10 12
BL 10 8
CA 10 4
GC 10 4

Round 11

West Coast Eagles 54.55
Hawthorn 52.995
Fremantle 45.736
Sydney Swans 45.671
Collingwood 40.806
Adelaide Crows 38.261
Geelong Cats 37.558
Western Bulldogs 37.381
Richmond 37.353
GWS Giants 37.065
Port Adelaide 35.377
North Melbourne 35.183
Essendon 29.294
Melbourne 27.15
St Kilda 26.446
Gold Coast Suns 24.265
Brisbane Lions 23.711
Carlton 22.71

Round 11 ladder
FR 11 40
SY 11 36
WC 11 32
CW 11 32
GW 11 28
HW 10 24
AD 10 24
RI 10 24
GE 11 24
PA 11 20
WB 10 20
NM 11 20
ES 11 16
SK 11 16
ME 11 12
BL 10 8
GC 11 4
CA 10 4


Round 12

West Coast Eagles 58.54
Hawthorn 57.966
Fremantle 50.901
Sydney Swans 50.722
Collingwood 45.048
Western Bulldogs 42.123
Adelaide Crows 41.695
North Melbourne 41.377
Richmond 41.048
Geelong Cats 39.776
GWS Giants 39.233
Port Adelaide 38.578
Essendon 32.291
Melbourne 31.303
St Kilda 29.197
Gold Coast Suns 26.524
Carlton 25.876
Brisbane Lions 25.369

Round 12 ladder
FR 11 40
WC 12 36
SY 11 36
CW 11 32
HW 11 28
GW 12 28
AD 11 24
RI 11 24
WB 11 24
GE 12 24
NM 12 24
PA 12 20
ES 11 16
SK 11 16
ME 12 16
CA 11 8
BL 11 8
GC 11 4

Round 13

West Coast Eagles 58.54
Hawthorn 57.858
Fremantle 49.785
Sydney Swans 48.696
Collingwood 44.827
Western Bulldogs 42.494
Richmond 42.077
North Melbourne 41.425
Adelaide Crows 40.795
Geelong Cats 39.996
GWS Giants 39.592
Port Adelaide 38.453
Essendon 31.69
Melbourne 31.435
St Kilda 28.921
Carlton 27.143
Gold Coast Suns 26.028
Brisbane Lions 25.823

Round 13 Ladder
FR 12 44
WC 12 36
SY 12 36
HW 12 32
CW 12 32
RI 12 28
AD 12 28
WB 12 28
GW 12 28
GE 12 24
NM 12 24
PA 12 20
ES 12 16
SK 12 16
ME 12 16
CA 12 12
BL 12 8
GC 12 4

Round 14

West Coast Eagles 58.86
Hawthorn 56.462
Fremantle 48.735
Sydney Swans 46.866
Collingwood 44.798
Western Bulldogs 41.702
Richmond 41.641
Adelaide Crows 41.135
Geelong Cats 39.794
GWS Giants 39.476
North Melbourne 39.226
Port Adelaide 38.99
St Kilda 31.344
Melbourne 31.089
Essendon 30.37
Gold Coast Suns 29.014
Carlton 27.338
Brisbane Lions 25.973

Round 14 ladder
FR 13 48
WC 13 40
SY 13 40
HW 13 36
CW 13 32
RI 13 32
WB 13 32
AD 12 30
GW 13 28
GE 12 26
NM 13 24
PA 13 20
SK 13 20
ES 13 16
ME 13 16
CA 13 12
GC 13 8
BL 13 8

Round 15

Hawthorn 60.853
West Coast Eagles 58.373
Fremantle 46.678
Sydney Swans 46.393
Collingwood 43.718
Richmond 41.962
Western Bulldogs 41.465
Adelaide Crows 40.3
GWS Giants 40.089
North Melbourne 39.696
Geelong Cats 39.648
Port Adelaide 39.485
St Kilda 31.21
Essendon 30.839
Melbourne 30.537
Gold Coast Suns 28.811
Carlton 27.185
Brisbane Lions 26.068

Round 15 ladder
FR 14 48
WC 14 44
SY 14 44
HW 14 40
RI 14 36
WB 14 36
CW 14 32
GW 14 32
AD 13 30
NM 14 28
GE 13 26
PA 14 24
SK 14 20
ES 14 20
ME 14 16
CA 14 12
GC 14 8
BL 14 8

Round 16
Hawthorn 68.786
West Coast Eagles 63.255
Fremantle 50.798
Sydney Swans 48.1
Collingwood 46.521
Richmond 44.625
Adelaide Crows 44.01
Western Bulldogs 43.849
Geelong Cats 42.976
North Melbourne 42.894
Port Adelaide 42.557
GWS Giants 41.91
Melbourne 34.29
St Kilda 33.686
Essendon 33.343
Gold Coast Suns 31.69
Carlton 29.052
Brisbane Lions 27.514

Round 16 ladder
FR 15 52
WC 15 48
HW 15 44
SY 15 44
RI 15 40
WB 15 36
GW 15 36
AD 14 34
CW 15 32
NM 15 32
GE 14 30
PA 15 24
SK 15 20
ES 15 20
ME 15 20
CA 15 12
GC 15 8
BL 15 8

Round 17

Hawthorn 72.966
West Coast Eagles 62.924
Fremantle 50.257
Sydney Swans 45.807
Collingwood 44.81
Geelong Cats 43.605
Western Bulldogs 43.479
Adelaide Crows 43.118
Richmond 43.028
North Melbourne 42.562
Port Adelaide 41.383
GWS Giants 39.726
St Kilda 33.919
Melbourne 33.211
Essendon 32.742
Gold Coast Suns 30.993
Carlton 27.29
Brisbane Lions 26.859

Round 17 ladder
FR 16 56
WC 16 52
HW 16 48
SY 16 44
RI 16 40
WB 16 40
AD 15 38
NM 16 36
GW 16 36
GE 15 34
CW 16 32
PA 16 28
SK 16 24
ES 16 20
ME 16 20
CA 16 12
GC 16 8
BL 16 8


Have only done the first 17 rounds. Amazing how early it got on hawthorn and west coast considering Hawthorn were 6th on the ladder at one stage but ranked a very close second.
 
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