Analysis Team ratings 2019

[grumbleguts]

It's only early days, but here are the ratings for the teams after three rounds of the 2019 season.

1 Geelong 100.000
2 Brisbane 90.041
3 West Coast 82.836
4 Fremantle 69.424
5 GWS 55.487
6 Collingwood 37.735
7 Western Bulldogs 30.632
8 Gold Coast 30.471
9 Hawthorn 27.073
10 Port Adelaide 4.139
11 St Kilda 3.357
12 Adelaide -17.759
13 Sydney -43.214
14 Richmond -57.741
15 North Melbourne -78.525
16 Carlton -91.099
17 Essendon -123.098
18 Melbourne -137.331

 

[Brant]

It's only early days, but here are the ratings for the teams after three rounds of the 2019 season.

1 Geelong 100.000
2 Brisbane 90.041
3 West Coast 82.836
4 Fremantle 69.424
5 GWS 55.487
6 Collingwood 37.735
7 Western Bulldogs 30.632
8 Gold Coast 30.471
9 Hawthorn 27.073
10 Port Adelaide 4.139
11 St Kilda 3.357
12 Adelaide -17.759
13 Sydney -43.214
14 Richmond -57.741
15 North Melbourne -78.525
16 Carlton -91.099
17 Essendon -123.098
18 Melbourne -137.331

What are these ratings mate & how are the numbers compiled?

What goes into creating a rating & what is considered ‘good’?

 

[grumbleguts]

What are these ratings mate & how are the numbers compiled?

What goes into creating a rating & what is considered ‘good’?

I rate the top team 100, and the others are rated relative to that. The methematics of the ratings system is explained in part in this thread:
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/team-ratings.1136878/

In that thread I posted the ratings in round 9, 2016. They were:


Round 9
Sydney Swans 135.8761
GWS Giants 129.5763
Geelong Cats 127.5612
Adelaide Crows 126.2597
West Coast Eagles 123.8679
Western Bulldogs 116.0758
Hawthorn 112.8825
North Melbourne 106.9513
Melbourne 88.85062
Port Adelaide 84.88779
Gold Coast Suns 73.90761
Collingwood 72.69306
Richmond 72.16456
Brisbane Lions 71.02502
Essendon 65.24481
St Kilda 64.22038
Fremantle 60.74817
Carlton 59.50057

The ladder at that time was:

NM 9 36 130.9
GE 9 28 152.0
GW 9 28 148.0
SY 9 28 144.2
WB 9 24 133.9
WC 9 24 129.6
HW 9 24 102.7
AD 9 20 118.4
ME 9 20 113.6
PA 9 16 100.5
CW 9 16 94.4
CA 9 16 76.7
SK 9 12 84.9
RI 9 12 81.6
GC 9 12 74.5
BL 9 4 62.1
ES 9 4 59.7
FR 9 0 68.4

You can see that the actual ladder was very different North Melbourne were undefeated, yet my ratings system had them just making the eight in eighth
position. It had carlton

The final ladder that season:

SY 22 68 151.2
GE 22 68 143.8
HW 22 68 118.6
GW 22 64 143.1
AD 22 64 138.3
WC 22 64 130.0
WB 22 60 115.4
NM 22 48 105.2
SK 22 48 95.7
PA 22 40 106.0
ME 22 40 97.6
CW 22 36 95.6
RI 22 32 79.5
CA 22 28 79.3
GC 22 24 78.2
FR 22 16 74.3
BL 22 12 61.6
ES 22 12 61.0

The algorithm recognised the teams NM had beaten were actually low in ability and that they weren't that good.

 

[Brant]

Stupid maths... Good work, though!

Can you probabilityarise the 1st Goal Kicker for our game? Asking for a friend...

 

[grumbleguts]

Stupid maths... Good work, though!

Can you probabilityarise the 1st Goal Kicker for our game? Asking for a friend...

Now that it won't do.

 

[Dave Id]

Hasn't worked so well this arvo!

 

[Dave Id]

Stupid maths... Good work, though!

Can you probabilityarise the 1st Goal Kicker for our game? Asking for a friend...

Poppy @ 16/1.

 

[grumbleguts]

Hasn't worked so well this arvo!

It doesn't work for about 7 rounds then it gets very accurate. But enough teams have to play teams that have played teams that have played teams etc. For example, today's win by GWS has massively increased West Coasts rating. Right now they sit at number 1. because they thrashed GWS, who beat geelong who beat a whole bunch of teams.

 

[Argy]

Neat.

 

[Dave Id]

Gets a bit slow up there until sugar cane season.

Nice day,aye.

 

[Dave Id]

Neat.

Suspect the team that wins the Grannie finishes up on top

 

[grumbleguts]

Gets a bit slow up there until sugar cane season.

Nice day,aye.

I have nothing to do with sugar cane season, and I don't live in Tully anymore.

 

[grumbleguts]

Suspect the team that wins the Grannie finishes up on top

Yes. In 2015, in round 7 Hawthorn were 6th on the ladder, West Coast were second, and Fremantle were top undefeated. This system had Hawthorn Top, Westcoast second, Freo 3rd. Hawthorn were rated ahead of Westcoast by 43 points, which was 43% of hawthorns rating. Hawthon won the premiership a few months later by 46 points ahead of West Coast.. 42.8% of hawthorn's score.

 

[Dave Id]

On the run or sumfin :}

 

[grumbleguts]

It's only early days, but here are the ratings for the teams after three rounds of the 2019 season.

1 Geelong 100.000
2 Brisbane 90.041
3 West Coast 82.836
4 Fremantle 69.424
5 GWS 55.487
6 Collingwood 37.735
7 Western Bulldogs 30.632
8 Gold Coast 30.471
9 Hawthorn 27.073
10 Port Adelaide 4.139
11 St Kilda 3.357
12 Adelaide -17.759
13 Sydney -43.214
14 Richmond -57.741
15 North Melbourne -78.525
16 Carlton -91.099
17 Essendon -123.098
18 Melbourne -137.331

Round 4
GWS 100
Geelong 98.167
West Coast 59.331
Fremantle 45.461
Collingwood 34.604
St Kilda 16.208
Essendon 4.961
Hawthorn 4.214
Gold Coast 1.678
Western Bulldogs -0.407
Port Adelaide -30.634
Richmond -50.636
Adelaide -65.253
Brisbane -68.971
Sydney -92.793
Carlton -97.626
North Melbourne -109.945
Melbourne -117.209

 

[Luke_Hodgey_15]

Looking forward to seeing the latest update on this. I'm a huge fan of your work grumbleguts