Analysis Team Ratings 2021

[grumbleguts]

Round 3
Teams rated against the highest rated team out of 100. North not doing so well. Early days and things will swing wildly for a few weeks.

Western Bulldogs	100​
West Coast	68.84​
Sydney	64.25​
Port Adelaide	25.38​
Melbourne	18.05​
Richmond	17.68​
Collingwood	9.92​
Gold Coast	7.83​
Adelaide	2.46​
Carlton	-1.44​
Brisbane	-7.82​
Essendon	-12.72​
Geelong	-15.18​
Hawthorn	-35.07​
Fremantle	-38.33​
St Kilda	-70.11​
GWS	-75.12​
North Melbourne	-186.78​

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I don’t know what I’m looking at.

 

[spudmaster]

The throwdogs are the gold standard and North should be relegated?
The actual ladder made that clear though as well.

 

[moginie]

So, we'll be well matched against Fremantle?

 

[The Spirit of Cricket]

this is very confusing but i very much like geelong's position on this here ladder

 

[grumbleguts]

I don’t know what I’m looking at.

So for several years I have been using some complicated maths to rank all the teams each season. It has been far more accurate than the squiggle, (probably mainly because it won't use data from the previous season, but it needs about 7 rounds of data to come into its own.

In 2015 round 10, it predicted a Hawthorn West Coast GF when the two teams were 6th and 3rd on the ladder respectively, and that Hawthorn were 42.6% better than west coast. (almost the exact margin of the GF.) It predicted Freo third when they were undefeated after 9 rounds. They finished top but lost the prelim.


In 2016 round 9 it had the rankings as

Round 9
1. Sydney Swans 135.8761
2. GWS Giants 129.5763
3. Geelong Cats 127.5612
4. Adelaide Crows 126.2597
5. West Coast Eagles 123.8679
6. Western Bulldogs 116.0758
7. Hawthorn 112.8825
8. North Melbourne 106.9513
9. Melbourne 88.85062
10. Port Adelaide 84.88779
11. Gold Coast Suns 73.90761
12. Collingwood 72.69306
13. Richmond 72.16456
14. Brisbane Lions 71.02502
15. Essendon 65.24481
16. St Kilda 64.22038
17. Fremantle 60.74817
18. Carlton 59.50057


The ladder at the same time:

1. NM 9 36 130.9
2. GE 9 28 152.0
3. GW 9 28 148.0
4. SY 9 28 144.2
5. WB 9 24 133.9
6. WC 9 24 129.6
7. HW 9 24 102.7
8. AD 9 20 118.4
9. ME 9 20 113.6
10. PA 9 16 100.5
11. CW 9 16 94.4
12. CA 9 16 76.7
13. SK 9 12 84.9
14. RI 9 12 81.6
15. GC 9 12 74.5
16. BL 9 4 62.1
17. ES 9 4 59.7
18. FR 9 0 68.4

The final ladder:

1. SY 22 68 151.2
2. GE 22 68 143.8
3. HW 22 68 118.6
4. GW 22 64 143.1
5. AD 22 64 138.3
6. WC 22 64 130.0
7. WB 22 60 115.4
8. NM 22 48 105.2
9. SK 22 48 95.7
10. PA 22 40 106.0
11. ME 22 40 97.6
12. CW 22 36 95.6
13. RI 22 32 79.5
14. CA 22 28 79.3
15. GC 22 24 78.2
16. FR 22 16 74.3
17. BL 22 12 61.6
18. ES 22 12 61.0

Apart from hawthorn's insane 6 wins or so by 3 points or less it pretty much nailed the top 6 or so. If you look at Hawthorn's final percentage, my system probably had them right on the money. The final ladder looks more like my system's prediction from round 9 than the actual ladder in round 9. Amazingly North was actually undefeated yet the maths said they had beaten a bunch of losers and weren't any higher than 8th. And they finished? 8th.

If anyone wants to see this actual data dated to that round, I posted it in this thread on the date in question, to show it is actually predicting and it isn't me making this up after the fact. (It has been out performing the squiggle in this regard).


https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/team-ratings.1136878/#post-45289129

Interesting stuff.

So although north were Undefeated, it thought they were poo and they were.

 

[grumbleguts]

Round 4.Well at least Geelong dropped.

Western Bulldogs	100​
Sydney	68.43​
Melbourne	57.23​
West Coast	49.92​
Port Adelaide	34.94​
Richmond	28.15​
Carlton	17.09​
Essendon	15.2​
Adelaide	5.43​
Gold Coast	4.81​
Brisbane	-4.16​
Fremantle	-7.52​
Collingwood	-8.26​
Geelong	-13.17​
St Kilda	-16.79​
GWS	-22.17​
Hawthorn	-29.66​
North Melbourne	-173.97​

 

[grumbleguts]

The throwdogs are the gold standard and North should be relegated?
The actual ladder made that clear though as well.

Read the sixth post in this thread to see why this is better than the actual ladder.

 

[grumbleguts]

Round five: (ALWNSK)

Western Bulldogs	100​
Melbourne	56.72​
Richmond	50.88​
Sydney	47.89​
West Coast	38.62​
Port Adelaide	35.47​
Brisbane	27.84​
Carlton	6.17​
Fremantle	0.27​
Adelaide	-2.59​
Geelong	-4.81​
Collingwood	-5.08​
GWS	-10.56​
Gold Coast	-12.52​
Essendon	-21.76​
Hawthorn	-34.2​
St Kilda	-50.71​
North Melbourne	-135.85​

 

[Brant]

Round five: (ALWNSK)

Western Bulldogs	100​
Melbourne	56.72​
Richmond	50.88​
Sydney	47.89​
West Coast	38.62​
Port Adelaide	35.47​
Brisbane	27.84​
Carlton	6.17​
Fremantle	0.27​
Adelaide	-2.59​
Geelong	-4.81​
Collingwood	-5.08​
GWS	-10.56​
Gold Coast	-12.52​
Essendon	-21.76​
Hawthorn	-34.2​
St Kilda	-50.71​
North Melbourne	-135.85​

North look to be struggling & could miss finals.

 

[grumbleguts]

North look to be struggling & could miss finals.

Yes. Also the thrashing Essendon received didn't help our rating.
Had that scoreline been reversed, the table would have looked like this:

Western Bulldogs	100​
Melbourne	65.1​
Richmond	61.15​
Sydney	54.36​
Port Adelaide	51.47​
West Coast	46.48​
Essendon	40.88​
Carlton	11.42​
Fremantle	5.91​
Adelaide	1.04​
GWS	-5.98​
Geelong	-7.94​
Gold Coast	-9.18​
Collingwood	-9.33​
Hawthorn	-23.8​
Brisbane	-27.11​
St Kilda	-37.28​
North Melbourne	-137.29​

But because Brisbane thrashed Essendon, the computer thinks, geeze Hawthorn's win over that mob can't be all that great, it was only by a point and they are getting reamed by this mob.
But if Essendon thrash Brisbane, it thinks, Holy crap, that win by Hawthorn in the first round was pretty impressive.
Also can I ask how we make the table columns thinner?

 

[grumbleguts]

Western Bulldogs	100​
Melbourne	80.79​
Geelong	52.73​
Port Adelaide	44.47​
Richmond	32.79​
Brisbane	31.34​
Sydney	23.06​
Fremantle	9.88​
Carlton	1.45​
Gold Coast	0.31​
Adelaide	-0.83​
West Coast	-11.57​
GWS	-19.63​
Essendon	-19.67​
Collingwood	-24.63​
Hawthorn	-24.73​
St Kilda	-79.07​
North Melbourne	-143.22​