Analysis Team Ratings 2021

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grumbleguts

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 14, 2011
10,788
23,392
Tully FNQ
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Round 3
Teams rated against the highest rated team out of 100. North not doing so well. Early days and things will swing wildly for a few weeks.

Western Bulldogs
100​
West Coast
68.84​
Sydney
64.25​
Port Adelaide
25.38​
Melbourne
18.05​
Richmond
17.68​
Collingwood
9.92​
Gold Coast
7.83​
Adelaide
2.46​
Carlton
-1.44​
Brisbane
-7.82​
Essendon
-12.72​
Geelong
-15.18​
Hawthorn
-35.07​
Fremantle
-38.33​
St Kilda
-70.11​
GWS
-75.12​
North Melbourne
-186.78​
 

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grumbleguts

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 14, 2011
10,788
23,392
Tully FNQ
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I don’t know what I’m looking at.
So for several years I have been using some complicated maths to rank all the teams each season. It has been far more accurate than the squiggle, (probably mainly because it won't use data from the previous season, but it needs about 7 rounds of data to come into its own.

In 2015 round 10, it predicted a Hawthorn West Coast GF when the two teams were 6th and 3rd on the ladder respectively, and that Hawthorn were 42.6% better than west coast. (almost the exact margin of the GF.) It predicted Freo third when they were undefeated after 9 rounds. They finished top but lost the prelim.


In 2016 round 9 it had the rankings as

Round 9
1. Sydney Swans 135.8761
2. GWS Giants 129.5763
3. Geelong Cats 127.5612
4. Adelaide Crows 126.2597
5. West Coast Eagles 123.8679
6. Western Bulldogs 116.0758
7. Hawthorn 112.8825
8. North Melbourne 106.9513
9. Melbourne 88.85062
10. Port Adelaide 84.88779
11. Gold Coast Suns 73.90761
12. Collingwood 72.69306
13. Richmond 72.16456
14. Brisbane Lions 71.02502
15. Essendon 65.24481
16. St Kilda 64.22038
17. Fremantle 60.74817
18. Carlton 59.50057


The ladder at the same time:

1. NM 9 36 130.9
2. GE 9 28 152.0
3. GW 9 28 148.0
4. SY 9 28 144.2
5. WB 9 24 133.9
6. WC 9 24 129.6
7. HW 9 24 102.7
8. AD 9 20 118.4
9. ME 9 20 113.6
10. PA 9 16 100.5
11. CW 9 16 94.4
12. CA 9 16 76.7
13. SK 9 12 84.9
14. RI 9 12 81.6
15. GC 9 12 74.5
16. BL 9 4 62.1
17. ES 9 4 59.7
18. FR 9 0 68.4

The final ladder:

1. SY 22 68 151.2
2. GE 22 68 143.8
3. HW 22 68 118.6
4. GW 22 64 143.1
5. AD 22 64 138.3
6. WC 22 64 130.0
7. WB 22 60 115.4
8. NM 22 48 105.2
9. SK 22 48 95.7
10. PA 22 40 106.0
11. ME 22 40 97.6
12. CW 22 36 95.6
13. RI 22 32 79.5
14. CA 22 28 79.3
15. GC 22 24 78.2
16. FR 22 16 74.3
17. BL 22 12 61.6
18. ES 22 12 61.0

Apart from hawthorn's insane 6 wins or so by 3 points or less it pretty much nailed the top 6 or so. If you look at Hawthorn's final percentage, my system probably had them right on the money. The final ladder looks more like my system's prediction from round 9 than the actual ladder in round 9. Amazingly North was actually undefeated yet the maths said they had beaten a bunch of losers and weren't any higher than 8th. And they finished? 8th.

If anyone wants to see this actual data dated to that round, I posted it in this thread on the date in question, to show it is actually predicting and it isn't me making this up after the fact. (It has been out performing the squiggle in this regard).


https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/team-ratings.1136878/#post-45289129

Interesting stuff.

So although north were Undefeated, it thought they were poo and they were.
 

grumbleguts

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 14, 2011
10,788
23,392
Tully FNQ
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Round 4.Well at least Geelong dropped.


Western Bulldogs
100​
Sydney
68.43​
Melbourne
57.23​
West Coast
49.92​
Port Adelaide
34.94​
Richmond
28.15​
Carlton
17.09​
Essendon
15.2​
Adelaide
5.43​
Gold Coast
4.81​
Brisbane
-4.16​
Fremantle
-7.52​
Collingwood
-8.26​
Geelong
-13.17​
St Kilda
-16.79​
GWS
-22.17​
Hawthorn
-29.66​
North Melbourne
-173.97​
 

grumbleguts

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 14, 2011
10,788
23,392
Tully FNQ
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Round five: (ALWNSK)


Western Bulldogs
100​
Melbourne
56.72​
Richmond
50.88​
Sydney
47.89​
West Coast
38.62​
Port Adelaide
35.47​
Brisbane
27.84​
Carlton
6.17​
Fremantle
0.27​
Adelaide
-2.59​
Geelong
-4.81​
Collingwood
-5.08​
GWS
-10.56​
Gold Coast
-12.52​
Essendon
-21.76​
Hawthorn
-34.2​
St Kilda
-50.71​
North Melbourne
-135.85​
 

Brant

Premium Platinum
Sep 6, 2009
16,899
26,861
Padbury; WA
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Arsenal
Round five: (ALWNSK)


Western Bulldogs
100​
Melbourne
56.72​
Richmond
50.88​
Sydney
47.89​
West Coast
38.62​
Port Adelaide
35.47​
Brisbane
27.84​
Carlton
6.17​
Fremantle
0.27​
Adelaide
-2.59​
Geelong
-4.81​
Collingwood
-5.08​
GWS
-10.56​
Gold Coast
-12.52​
Essendon
-21.76​
Hawthorn
-34.2​
St Kilda
-50.71​
North Melbourne
-135.85​
North look to be struggling & could miss finals.
 

grumbleguts

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 14, 2011
10,788
23,392
Tully FNQ
AFL Club
Hawthorn
North look to be struggling & could miss finals.
Yes. Also the thrashing Essendon received didn't help our rating.
Had that scoreline been reversed, the table would have looked like this:


Western Bulldogs
100​
Melbourne
65.1​
Richmond
61.15​
Sydney
54.36​
Port Adelaide
51.47​
West Coast
46.48​
Essendon
40.88​
Carlton
11.42​
Fremantle
5.91​
Adelaide
1.04​
GWS
-5.98​
Geelong
-7.94​
Gold Coast
-9.18​
Collingwood
-9.33​
Hawthorn
-23.8​
Brisbane
-27.11​
St Kilda
-37.28​
North Melbourne
-137.29​

But because Brisbane thrashed Essendon, the computer thinks, geeze Hawthorn's win over that mob can't be all that great, it was only by a point and they are getting reamed by this mob.
But if Essendon thrash Brisbane, it thinks, Holy crap, that win by Hawthorn in the first round was pretty impressive.
Also can I ask how we make the table columns thinner?
 
Round 6 New

grumbleguts

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 14, 2011
10,788
23,392
Tully FNQ
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Western Bulldogs
100​
Melbourne
80.79​
Geelong
52.73​
Port Adelaide
44.47​
Richmond
32.79​
Brisbane
31.34​
Sydney
23.06​
Fremantle
9.88​
Carlton
1.45​
Gold Coast
0.31​
Adelaide
-0.83​
West Coast
-11.57​
GWS
-19.63​
Essendon
-19.67​
Collingwood
-24.63​
Hawthorn
-24.73​
St Kilda
-79.07​
North Melbourne
-143.22​
 

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