Team Youth Rankings

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What happens to Fremantle’s Team Youth Rankings when Liam Henry leaves?

Good question. For the first time, I'm going to do an alternate rankings after the end of the trade period. But for the purpose of these rankings they'll only change up until the Grand Final.
 

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Congratulations Freo
Quite the achievement

confused

Not sure if pulling the piss or serious. We’ve had high representation in the 22 and under team the last few years. Our list profile is very young and we look ready to take the next step. The youngish players are starting to hit their straps. If Longmuir can’t take this group to the finals next year something has gone wrong.
 
Interesting exercise.

Good that it is data driven but a lot of that data is based on subjective input (but that’s probably hard to avoid, that subjective input is the same way we decide awards in the game other than Coleman award)

There’s obvious things that stick out.

Like hawks have to be so high cause of quantity of youth rather than quality. They’ve got some nice young talent but not so many high end young players performing to be so high.

Coaches votes also has its flaws as a measure.

A deeper team with quality players over 24 can get the coaches votes over a promising 21 year old.

A team with fewer over 24 yr olds performing at a high standard means it’s easier for the under 24’s to get coaches votes.

Again to point to hawks, they don’t have a lot of high end senior players to claim coaches votes and keep young players out. (This doesn’t mean hawks don’t have some good youth etc inthink they r got a fairly decent base to build off of)

Port has 2 22 year olds that just made all-aus and I’ll be shocked if they’re both not top 10 in the Brownlow.

Butters is worth way more than several lower quality young players and I wonder whether your collection of data represents this.

I would be interested to see what sum points value you came up with for butters and what players across the league match up against him value wise by your metrics.

Is that something you can show us?

Admittedly it would be very hard to balance everything and get it perfect.
 
Interesting exercise.

Good that it is data driven but a lot of that data is based on subjective input (but that’s probably hard to avoid, that subjective input is the same way we decide awards in the game other than Coleman award)

There’s obvious things that stick out.

Like hawks have to be so high cause of quantity of youth rather than quality. They’ve got some nice young talent but not so many high end young players performing to be so high.

Coaches votes also has its flaws as a measure.

A deeper team with quality players over 24 can get the coaches votes over a promising 21 year old.

A team with fewer over 24 yr olds performing at a high standard means it’s easier for the under 24’s to get coaches votes.

Again to point to hawks, they don’t have a lot of high end senior players to claim coaches votes and keep young players out. (This doesn’t mean hawks don’t have some good youth etc inthink they r got a fairly decent base to build off of)

Port has 2 22 year olds that just made all-aus and I’ll be shocked if they’re both not top 10 in the Brownlow.

Butters is worth way more than several lower quality young players and I wonder whether your collection of data represents this.

I would be interested to see what sum points value you came up with for butters and what players across the league match up against him value wise by your metrics.

Is that something you can show us?

Admittedly it would be very hard to balance everything and get it perfect.


After the finals conclude, I'll provide a summary of each team's performance, explaining their rankings. This will delve into greater detail concerning individual players. I aim to offer a more comprehensive response then.

Addressing your comments about Port Adelaide briefly: they rank 1st for Coaches Votes, earning the full 18 points. For Player Ratings total and Supercoach, they're positioned 8th (scoring 11 points for both), 7th for Supercoach player average (gaining 12 points), but only 10th for Player Ratings average.

In the YTR (Youth Team Rankings), Port stands at 6th. They're unique in being the sole team from the ladder's top four to appear among the top twelve in the YTR.

It's indeed noteworthy when a young team with a strong youth emphasis competes for the flag, which is essentially what Port is undertaking at the moment.

In 2019, Port Adelaide soared to as high as 3rd place with 68 points. This suggests that they should be contenders currently, considering there's typically a three-year progression.
 
After the finals conclude, I'll provide a summary of each team's performance, explaining their rankings. This will delve into greater detail concerning individual players. I aim to offer a more comprehensive response then.

Addressing your comments about Port Adelaide briefly: they rank 1st for Coaches Votes, earning the full 18 points. For Player Ratings total and Supercoach, they're positioned 8th (scoring 11 points for both), 7th for Supercoach player average (gaining 12 points), but only 10th for Player Ratings average.

In the YTR (Youth Team Rankings), Port stands at 6th. They're unique in being the sole team from the ladder's top four to appear among the top twelve in the YTR.

It's indeed noteworthy when a young team with a strong youth emphasis competes for the flag, which is essentially what Port is undertaking at the moment.

In 2019, Port Adelaide soared to as high as 3rd place with 68 points. This suggests that they should be contenders currently, considering there's typically a three-year progression.

Thanks

I’m very interested to know how many points butters contributed to ports ranking, and how those points matched up to his peers?

On his way to a coaches assoc award as a 22yr old did he contribute the most points of any young player by your metrics? 5th most? 20th most? What was the gap in points between him and the medium points contributer in your data?
 
Vic based media need to read this apparently freo were the biggest disappointment of 2023 not cats or dogs, apparently hawks were a success with 3 less wins because they’re young and lack experience
Cats won a premiership last year with an old list, not surprising there fall off

Dogs have copped it in Vic big time and they dropped from 8th to 9th

Freo made a semi final and got a big off season recruit and dropped to the bottom 6.

Easily Freo had the biggest drop and most disappointing season. But progress isn't always linear, look at our 2019 season for instance

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Cats won a premiership last year with an old list, not surprising there fall off

Dogs have copped it in Vic big time and they dropped from 8th to 9th

Freo made a semi final and got a big off season recruit and dropped to the bottom 6.

Easily Freo had the biggest drop and most disappointing season. But progress isn't always linear, look at our 2019 season for instance

Sent from my SM-S908E using Tapatalk
Freo didn’t really drop as far as it seems or as far as Geelong. 15th - 5th we’re all very even and only a few wins or close games separating them. There is a clear top 4, the rest making up the numbers and couldn’t make that step up. Only a team from the top 4 is winning the flag.

Last year Freo was pipped on top 4 but there were 5 decent teams & 1 stand out. Easy to see in hind sight though.

I’m not worried and it will probably do us good to be reminded what it takes and how easily you fall back if you start the season poorly.
 
View attachment 1791169

Freo Wins Back-to-Back

Fremantle tops the Team Youth Rankings (YTR) for the second consecutive year, accumulating 82 points. Last year, they garnered 81 points. In 2021, they secured second place with 77 points, and in 2020, they claimed third with 66 points.

The 82 points Freo scored this year are impressive. It matches the Dees' score in 2018 when they were ranked first in the YTR, three years prior to clinching the premiership.

Hawks Drop to Fourth

Despite ranking in the top two throughout the season, the last two rounds led to their fall to fourth position, overtaken by the Suns (2nd) and the Swans (3rd). North's recent victory proved invaluable, not just for the first pick in the draft, but also for propelling them two places up, from 7th to 5th.

Beveridge in the Doghouse

For Dogs supporters, the rankings might appear perplexing. After achieving first place in the YTR with 86 points in 2016 (the second-highest score ever, surpassed only by GWS's 89 points in 2015) – the year they took home the flag – they have now plummeted to the bottom of the rankings this year, following their absence from the finals. It's challenging to pinpoint the exact cause, but one thing is clear: Luke Beveridge might have missed the mark this time.



Ours is pretty explainable. We have nothing coming through the midfield. Most of our young talent is up forward
 
Melbourene Ranked 18th

Melbourne's Premiership Projection:
N/A

Premiership Window: Closing by 2026

Melbourne finished last in the team youth rankings this year, and it's evident why. Their youth ranked last for both AFL player ratings and Supercoach totals. They also ranked second last for Coaches Votes, with West Coast trailing just behind them.

They fielded the third oldest side in the finals. While their premiership window might remain open for another three years, there's also a possibility it could close within the next year or two. Next year, several key players like Gawn, May, and Viney will be 30 or older. Additionally, players like Melksham and McDonald are already over 30.

Interestingly, Melbourne ranked 1st in the Team Youth Rankings back in 2018. This suggests they capitalized on their potential, as they clinched the premiership they were projected to win in 2021.

Drafting Needs:

For their next rebuild, the Dees will need to concentrate on bolstering their midfield. Currently, they lack promising young midfielders. The departure of James Jordon to Sydney next season further compounds this issue. Their current standing at 17th in the Midfield Youth Rankings underscores this deficiency. It's no surprise that there are rumors of them pursuing Harley Reid.
 
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You cannot use supercoach points to measure quality...
 

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Bulldogs Ranked 16th (equal)

Premiership Projection:
N/A
Premiership Window: Closing by 2027

The Bulldogs finished outside the finals for the first time since 2017. They were ranked 1st for the second time in YTR back in 2019. So, when they made the GF in 2022, they were probably a year ahead of schedule.

This isn't new to them. They're the only team to finish on top of YTR in 2016 and win the Premiership in the same year.

Is Luke Beveridge the most underachieving coach of the modern era? Or is he just good at rebuilding?

Drafting Needs

For their next rebuild, the Dogs need to focus on defenders. They currently rank second last in Defence youth rankings. Although they probably need to focus on all areas, as they rank in the bottom half in all categories.

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Collingwood Ranked 16th (equal)

Premiership Projection:
N/A
Premiership Window: Closing 2025

According to Supercoach rankings and the Coaches Votes, Collingwood have the best young player in the league. They also have a handful of good young players, but that's about it.

Nine of their best 22 are over 30 years of age, and even guys like De Goey, Moore, McStay, and Cameron will be nearing 30 soon.

They were ranked as high as 3rd in the YTR back in 2018, so this year's premiership was probably helped by the acquisition of Tom Mitchell, Hill, and Nick Daicos.

Drafting Needs

When this premiership window closes, Collingwood should be looking to improve their key positions stocks. They currently rank last in Spine Youth Rankings. All their good young players are either mids, small forwards, wingers, or small defenders.

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Geelong Ranked 15th

Premiership Projection:
N/A
Premiership Window: Closed?

Geelong, yet again, had the oldest team in the competition. The defending premiers finished 12th on the ladder in 2023, the lowest ever ladder position for a reigning premier.

So, which Geelong are we going to see in the next few years? 2022 or 2023 Geelong?

Drafting Needs

Ranked 5th for Youth Forwards, Geelong is ranked 15th for Midfield youth; they definitely need to focus on this department with their ageing midfield group.

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West Coast Ranked 14th

Premiership Projection:
Finals contention 2028
Premiership Window: Closed

A glimmer of hope? West Coast finally finishes not in the bottom of the YTR for the first time in six years. It's obvious now that the Eagles need to rebuild. Even this year, their youth ranked last for Coaches Votes, 2nd and 3rd last for Player Ratings and SC averages.

Drafting Needs

The Eagles are in need of a major overhaul. They rank 16th for youth Midfield and Defence. They need to really focus on those two departments for the next 4-5 years and then hope to simultaneously nail the draft.

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Brisbane Ranked 13th

Premiership Projection:
N/A
Premiership Window: Closure unknown

The Lions have been able to trade in players to get themselves in premiership contention. Their highest rank on the YTR was 6th back in 2020. They had the second oldest team in the finals, and they lost by a kick to the oldest team in the finals. It's fair to say these opportunities don't come often, so did they miss the boat or do they still have a few more years left in them?

Drafting Needs

They pretty much need to hit every department for their next rebuild, but their most pressing concern is their Forward youth, currently ranked last. They'll need to look here right now for when the Ashcroft brothers hit their prime.

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St Kilda Ranked 12th

Premiership Projection:
Grand Final-Premiership 2024-26
Premiership Window: Open

Can a team make the finals too early? The Saints finished on top of YTR back in 2020, the year they made the semi-final and lost to the dynastic Richmond. Since then, they've only made the finals once, which was this year.

Do they have all the pieces or do they need to trade in like Collingwood, Geelong, Richmond, and Hawthorn did for their premierships?

Draft Needs

For their next rebuild, Saints' list couldn't be more polar. Ranked 2nd in the league for Forward youth, they rank last for Midfield youth. They need to address this quickly.

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Richmond Ranked 11th

Premiership Projection:
Finals contender
Premiership Window: Temporarily closed

The Tigers are in the infamous "no man's land", but could pull themselves quickly out of it with some astute drafting. This year they finished 2nd for Youth Defence but 2nd last for Youth Forward. They went and got Koschitzke from the Hawks, so they're hoping that gamble will pay off in spades.

Drafting Needs

As mentioned before, they need to focus on their Forward line. Even their midfield youth is average, so that will need a touch-up.
 
Vic based media need to read this apparently freo were the biggest disappointment of 2023 not cats or dogs, apparently hawks were a success with 3 less wins because they’re young and lack experience
Personally I was most disappointed in Freo this season. Didn't expect much from cats or dogs, but was expecting a big year for the dockers.
 
Personally I was most disappointed in Freo this season. Didn't expect much from cats or dogs, but was expecting a big year for the dockers.
No doubt but you don’t get paid to research and talk footy so you might of not been aware we were going to be in the btm 4 for age/experience and lost 5 from our best 25 and had 3 come in which take time to gel.some pundits had cats for the flag and freo just making the 8 then turn Around and say freos 10 wins (2.5 wins out of the 8) was more disappointing then cats fall out of the finals with pretty much the same team that won a flag the year before.
 
No doubt but you don’t get paid to research and talk footy so you might of not been aware we were going to be in the btm 4 for age/experience and lost 5 from our best 25 and had 3 come in which take time to gel.some pundits had cats for the flag and freo just making the 8 then turn Around and say freos 10 wins (2.5 wins out of the 8) was more disappointing then cats fall out of the finals with pretty much the same team that won a flag the year before.
Nah fair enough.
 
Carlton Ranked 10th

Premiership projection:
Grand final by 2025
Premiership window: opened

Although Carlton is not expected to win a premiership next year, the window has now opened. Maybe with some luck they may get, and they were pretty close this year.


Drafting needs

For the next rebuild, Carlton will need to focus on their defense, currently ranked last for youth defense.



Adelaide Ranked 9th

Premiership projection:
top 4
Premiership Window: opens 2025

Adelaide is still one of the youngest teams in the AFL, in fact the third youngest this year. So there is still plenty of time for improvement. That in mind, they should be ranked higher in the YTR.

Despite their youth ranking 3rd for SC totals, they ranked 12th for Coaches Votes and 13th Player Ratings Average. They have enough youth but is there enough quality?


Drafting needs

Adelaide's youth rank 1st for forwards with a huge score of 87 points (the next best is St Kilda with 75), 5th for defense, but unfortunately they languish 15th in midfield. If they can't find quality mids in the draft, you can leave their premiership window closed.



GWS Ranked 8th

Premiership projection:
Grand Final
Premiership window: open till Academies are open

Since 2014, Giants have been top 3 of the YTR every year except 2019 (5th), 2020 (9th) and last year ranked 10th.

They have a dynasty team but it never eventuated even though they got close a couple of times. The loss of several key players that they developed who then left and won premierships any best and fairest at other clubs may have cost them. Last year they finished second in the rankings, so they seemed to be always thereabouts with youth. I wonder why.


Drafting needs

Ranked 1st in defense for Youth this year, they rank 9th up forward and 11th in the midfield, so those are the two positions they need to focus on from this year on.


Essendon Ranked 7th

Premiership projection:
Top 4-Premiership
Premiership Window: opened


Finished 1st in the YTR in 2021, the same year the last made the finals, yet by eye test they seem way off it. Since 2017, they finished 7th three times, and 6th and 5th once.

So maybe it's a development issue? They finished first this year for SC and Player Ratings Average for their youth. So I don't know what's wrong with Essendon, maybe next year will be the start of something big.

Drafting needs

Essendon still need to grab some talented youth in the forward part of the ground. They rank 16th here.


North Melbourne Ranked 6th

Premiership projection:
finals by 2026
Premiership window: opening 2027?

North are a long way off, and the reason why they asked for draft assistance for the second year in a row. The question is will they manage to take advantage of it, or will they slum back into a heap? One could easily argue West Coast are in far more need of assistance, with their list even a couple of years behind.

North ranked 1st for SC and 2nd for Player Ratings, youth. This suggests they've been held back by their older players.


Drafting needs

If Alistair Clarkson wants to work out what they need to be drafting with all their new draft picks, he'd better be reading this or at least be on the same page. He certainly shouldn't be trading in mature players, but rather targeting the next 17-18 years olds.

North ranked 4th for Midfield, and 5th for Forwards for youth respectively, but 9th for Defenders. So guys like Curtin should be high on the list.


Port Adelaide Ranked 5th

Premiership projection: top 4
Premiership window: slightly open

Port's premiership window is currently open. It's also projected not to reach a Grand Final, they've never been ranked top two in the YTR.

They did manage to finish 5th in the YTR and top 6 this year. But how much more improvement can we see? They finished top in the Coaches Votes for youth, with 22 year old Butters taking out the award? Can he get better? You'd think guys like JHF and Ollie Lord might, but what about everyone else?

Drafting needs

Well they're still in rebuild mode so they still need top end talent. They rank 13th for Defenders and 12th for Forwards youth, they rank 14th for Spine as well. So not only do they need top end talent, but also focus on these areas. Tough job Ken.


Hawthorn Ranked 4th

Premiership projection:
top 4
Premiership window: opens 2025


Hawthorn were ranked top 2 for most of the year, until the last two weeks, when their performances dropped. Particularly, was telling their performance to Freo (who've been ranked 1st in YTR for most of the year).

Hawthorn are ranked 1st for Player Ratings and 2nd for SC, for youth: They rank 6th for Coaches Votes.

Drafting needs

Hawthorn ranks high for Midfield (5th). They also rank high for Forwards (3rd) but that may not be a true representation with the loss o
f Koschitzke and Brockman. They also need to draft Defenders ranked 14th, and KPP ranked 12th for Spine.
 
Rankings after Grand Final
Sydney Ranked 3rd

Premiership projection: Grand Final by 2026
Premiership Window: Opens 2024

Sydney not only are in the premiership window, they're currently still rebuilding. Whether they can build a good enough team to be Premiers is another question.

They rank 2nd for Midfield youth, and 5th for Defenders. So they do have the nucleus for the next premiership side.

Drafting needs

Sydney ranks 15th for youth Forwards. So Logan McDonald on his own won't cut it. They need to find some more young stars up forward or will Amartey and Wicks improve enough for them to contend?



Gold Coast Ranked 2nd

Premiership projection:
Grand Final
Premiership window: opens 2024

The Suns not only has a team that can make the first ever finals, they have a team that can go all the way, with a coach that can take them there. The problem with the Suns is two things. A lack of support, which means they don't have much of a home ground advantage, and player retention. If these can improve they'll be in a Grand Final sooner than later.

Drafting Needs

Gold Coast really don't have any needs, with the 3rd best midfield, 4th best forwards and the 7th best defence for youth. They don't have any needs, and yet they're getting three top 10 picks in this year's draft, with the best ruckman, one of the best inside mids and the best forward. We may see the Suns rank 1st in youth next year, and make the finals. They currently have the best u22 as well.



Fremantle Ranked 1st

Premiership projection:
dynasty
Premiership window: open

Despite the hiccup this year, don't be discouraged Dockers fans; They have finished first, two years running in the YTR. They also finished 2nd in 2021 and 3rd in 2020.

Freo finished on 82 rank points, 9 ahead of second place Gold Coast. Last year they finished with 81 points, 10 ahead of the second place Carlton. Lomgmuir really needs to win at least one or two premiership with this team as they're so far ahead of the rest. They also rank 1st for youth Midfield and youth Spine.

Drafting needs

Freo's only real weakness is their youth Forwards ranked 8th. So this is really the last piece 🧩 of the puzzle for them. Don't * this up.
 

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