Team Youth Rankings

[Guardian Hawk]

ok, so the first words of that clip are...

"He saw something he liked...and that's young Cox"

Noting I am at work and didn't have time to adjust the volume down before that was said.

Needs a NSFW warning or something.

(Edit: rewatched (with the volume down) and that line is actually at around 10 seconds - I have no idea why my video started at that point the first time).

 

[Roby]

great work, although I would be more interested in 22 and under.

I feel 23-24 are potentially 100 game players and 24 is nudging a players prime

Taking away those 23-24 year olds will mean cutting half the data pool, in fact they make up 49%.

Anyway this is what it would like if it was 22 and under.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Lol, poor man's Champion Data rankings... & I don't take much notice of Champion Data rankings.

This is very simplistic thinking...

 

[beerbandit]

Taking away those 23-24 year olds will mean cutting half the data pool, in fact they make up 49%.

Anyway this is what it would like if it was 22 and under.

That’s why I asked you for that info. Gives a better indication of the “kids” in each team.

But good job and thanks.

 

[Roby]

Carlton ascends six places, but the more notable change is Gold Coast's rise to third.

This shift is crucial as it offers the incoming coach a roster that potentially ranks as the best in the near future. The Suns already boast impressive young talent, and this year's academy will provide access to arguably the best prospect in the draft - not Harley Reid, but Jed Walter. Additionally, they'll gain a promising ruckman, who exhibits traits reminiscent of Max Gawn

11

Max Gawn

Age

31

Ht

209cm

Wt

111kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

7.4

3star

HB

6.7

4star

CL

2.8

4star

HO

35.3

5star

D

18.5

4star

K

11.5

4star

HB

7.0

4star

CL

3.5

4star

HO

29.2

5star

D

8.4

3star

K

3.6

2star

HB

4.8

4star

CL

1.0

3star

HO

15.6

5star

, as well as Jake Rogers, a midfielder touted as the cleanest player in the draft by numerous recruiters.

 

[DopeMaster]

This one of those Roby formulas where he cooks the numbers so Hawthorn is always best?

I’m in.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

This one of those Roby formulas where he cooks the numbers so Hawthorn is always best?

I’m in.

Given Fremantle have been number 1 in every iteration thus far, it appears not.

 

[The 747]

Given Fremantle have been number 1 in every iteration thus far, it appears not.

It's more subtle than usual.

 

[Roby]

Added New Rankings



I've added additional rankings for each team's midfield, forwards and defenders. There's additionals tab sheets added.

 

[Shooter#17]

Carlton ascends six places, but the more notable change is Gold Coast's rise to third.

View attachment 1743459

This shift is crucial as it offers the incoming coach a roster that potentially ranks as the best in the near future. The Suns already boast impressive young talent, and this year's academy will provide access to arguably the best prospect in the draft - not Harley Reid, but Jed Walter. Additionally, they'll gain a promising ruckman, who exhibits traits reminiscent of Max Gawn, as well as Jake Rogers, a midfielder touted as the cleanest player in the draft by numerous recruiters.

The GC list is so juicy, coaches would be falling over themselves to get a hold of it

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Collingwood fielded the oldest team in the AFL last weekend. Not bad for an exciting team on the rise.

 

[Roby]

Collingwood fielded the oldest team in the AFL last weekend. Not bad for an exciting team on the rise.

I guess that doesn't matter when you're on top of the ladder; given they're the oldest, they should be on top of the ladder, right?

I'd be concerned with Richmond and Geelong who are about the same age as Collingwood, and with seven less wins; it's likely one of them will probably miss finals this year.


According to these rankings, Geelong need to draft a fair bit of talent, particularly to replenish the midfield. Richmond will need to focus on their forward line.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I guess that doesn't matter when you're on top of the ladder; given they're the oldest, they should be on top of the ladder, right?

I'd be concerned with Richmond and Geelong who are about the same age as Collingwood, and with seven less wins; it's likely one of them will probably miss finals this year.


According to these rankings, Geelong need to draft a fair bit of talent, particularly to replenish the midfield. Richmond will need to focus on their forward line.

It is interesting to note that if Collingwood, Geelong or Richmond won the Premiership in 2023, it is likely that 3 of the last 4 Premierships will have been won by teams with an average age of older than 27 years, and possibly 2 of those older than 28 years on average.

Now in Richmond's case in 2020 this was with a 4th year dynasty team, which history would lead us to expect to be in that age range.

2020 Tigers 4th year dynasty average age on GF day = 27 years 1 month.

2015 Hawks 4th year dynasty average age on GF day = 27 years 10 months

2011 Cats 5th year dynasty average age GF day = 27 years 3 months

2004 Lions 4th year dynasty average age GF day = 27 years 6 months



But following are the average ages of Premiership teams who were not dynasty teams this century(they were all single Premiership winning teams:

2000 Bombers average age GF day = 25 years 8 months

2004 Port Adelaide = 27 years 0 months

2005 Swans = 25 years 9 months

2006 Eagles = 25 years 3 months

2008 Hawks = 24 years 7 months

2010 Magpies = 24 years 5 months

2012 Swans = 26 years 6 months

2016 Bulldogs = 24 years 5 months

2018 Eagles = 26 years 4 months

2021 Demons = 24 years 10 months

2022 Cats = 28 years 7 months

2023? current Premiership favourite Collingwood fielded a team in Rd 19 that will be on average 28 years old on GF day this year. If they won with that team they would be comfortably the 2nd oldest Premiership team ever.

If Collingwood were to win this season with their rd 19 team, they would have just 11 players they drafted at minimum draft age in their 23. Geelong in 2022 had just 10 players they drafted at minimum age. For some quick comparisons, Melbourne 2021 had 17 players in their GF team they drafted at minimum age. Richmond 2020 had 14.

In the last 2 seasons, the trend seems to have lurched violently towards older teams dominating, and away from teams full of players who were drafted by the club at minimum age.

So is it worth questioning the value of ranking youth at this point? If Collingwood win the 2023 Premiership, the youth you carry on your list will never have looked a less important indicator of future fortunes.

 

[Roby]

Meteoric Rise I guess if Freo, Hawks, or Suns (who are currently the top 3 tracked 6 teams) were to win a Premiership in a few years time, they're would be merit to this ranking system to the future prospects of teams.

Interesting to note that Port who narrowly lost to Collingwood last week, is ranked 5th, is TWO years younger and 40 games less average than Collingwood. So you could argue Port is an outlier or possibly hitting their prime soon.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Meteoric Rise I guess if Freo, Hawks, or Suns (who are currently the top 3 tracked 6 teams) were to win a Premiership in a few years time, they're would be merit to this ranking system to the future prospects of teams.

Interesting to note that Port who narrowly lost to Collingwood last week, is ranked 5th, is TWO years younger and 40 games less average than Collingwood. So you could argue Port is an outlier or possibly hitting their prime soon.

I agree we can't know for a few years what effect the youth from each club will have on its fortunes. But right now the following operative trends are playing out:

- the average AFL player is getting noticeably older both in the long term and medium term. In 1971 the average age of a VFL player was an equal all time low 22.6 years. This rose each year to be 24.4 years in 1981. The average age stayed in this sort of range until 2010 when it was 24.2. From there, I guess with the advent of the young lists of Suns and GWS it dipped slightly to 24.0 in 2012. Since then it has basically risen steadily to 25.3 years currently. The only time the average age in the competition has been above this was for 6 years from immediately post WW1, 1919-24. I am guessing this was something to do with the effect of the war, so an exceptional period. All things being equal, we are currently running at historically high average ages in the competition.

- 30+ yo players have exploded in recent years. We are getting up to about 5.3 x 30+ yo's representing each club on average in 2023 so far. In the early 60's that sunk as low as 4 in the whole competition! As recently as 2010 it was around 2.5 per club, less than half the current figure.

- Under 20yo's are running at what you might call all-time lows of around 2.6 per club so far in 2023. That figure was running at about 4 per club up to and including 2010, and has plummeted sharply in recent seasons from around 3.5 per club in 2018, to the current 2.6 per club. There was a period from WW1 through the depression years where very few under 20's played in several of those years but again, that was likely caused by the exceptional times. Collingwood, Geelong, Melbourne, Port Adelaide and Richmond have fielded 4 players under 20yo between them in 2023. But they have fielded 38 players older than 30. This seems to be the new demographic of a contending team. Old.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Freo bias and all but the rankings feel about right. I dont necessarily need Freo on top (I'd understand if any of the top 9ish rank theirs better) but I think we have not just some quality under 24 but most of our team under 24 so it carries. Lucky for us we'll always have a lot under 24 because we seem to lose best 22 players every year and we draft alright so we'll always be up and about in the under 24s premiership race.

Who needs a flag when we have the best yuf!!!

 

[Meteoric Rise]

In fact let's have a look at this current Collingwood best 22 seeing they are the Premiership favourites.

These are the players they drafted at minimum age in their current best 22:

2005 Pendlebury
2008 Sidebottom
2014 DeGoey Moore(F/S) Maynard
2016 J Daicos(F/S)
2017 Murphy
2018 Quaynor(Academy)
2021 N Daicos(F/S)

So they stand as Premiership favourites with 9 minimum age draftees in their team, and of those they had special access to 4 of them through academy shenanigans and F/S rules. They have 5 players in their best 22 that were drafted at minimum age and were available to all clubs. You can perhaps add Elliott and McCreery who were both drafted/recruited a year after their minimum age.

If you had looked at their youth say 6 years ago after the 2016 off-season, you'd have found just Elliott, DeGoey, Moore, Maynard, and J Daicos that were under 25 at the time who are in their best 23 now. Roby How would they have rated in your system?

 

[hawkman]

I miss Roby's power rankings. Made good cash from it. Though matterofstats is doing really well.

Betting against the power rankings?

 

[emblurr]

Betting against the power rankings?

No. Made several thousand dollars. I know there was a lot of banter, especially with the season bets. But i did well out of it the few years i did it. Matterofstats bets have been even more profitable.

Sent from my SM-F936B using Tapatalk

 

[vozzon]

In fact let's have a look at this current Collingwood best 22 seeing they are the Premiership favourites.

These are the players they drafted at minimum age in their current best 22:

2005 Pendlebury
2008 Sidebottom
2014 DeGoey Moore(F/S) Maynard
2016 J Daicos(F/S)
2017 Murphy
2018 Quaynor(Academy)
2021 N Daicos(F/S)

So they stand as Premiership favourites with 9 minimum age draftees in their team, and of those they had special access to 4 of them through academy shenanigans and F/S rules. They have 5 players in their best 22 that were drafted at minimum age and were available to all clubs. You can perhaps add Elliott and McCreery who were both drafted/recruited a year after their minimum age.

If you had looked at their youth say 6 years ago after the 2016 off-season, you'd have found just Elliott, DeGoey, Moore, Maynard, and J Daicos that were under 25 at the time who are in their best 23 now. Roby How would they have rated in your system?

Was Pendlebury a priority pick or the same year they had one (drafted with Daisy Thomas)

 

[Roby]

If you had looked at their youth say 6 years ago after the 2016 off-season, you'd have found just Elliott, DeGoey, Moore, Maynard, and J Daicos that were under 25 at the time who are in their best 23 now. Roby How would they have rated in your system?

I could have a look at 2016. I'll post it later.

 

[Roby]

Betting against the power rankings?

It sucks you missed out, but as I pointed out over many years ego cost people money. Emblurr is one of the nicest people on this forum, and more importantly.. smart, so he profits.

 

[hawkman]

Was Pendlebury a priority pick or the same year they had one (drafted with Daisy Thomas)

It depends how you look at it. Thomas was selected at the priority pick but Pendlebury was selected with the bonus pick

 

[Roby]

Was Pendlebury a priority pick or the same year they had one (drafted with Daisy Thomas)

Daisy was the priority pick, either way they had 2 picks in the top 5.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Was Pendlebury a priority pick or the same year they had one (drafted with Daisy Thomas)

Others have answered above but I think it is fair to say without that priority pick(massive rort 2 years after appearing in b2b Grand Finals) Collingwood would have been a whole lot less likely to draft Pendlebury.