Teams you are ruling out of the finals

[Holden Hillbilly]

13 teams still a possibility.

Outside the 8 west coast and essendon have easy draws, bulldogs have a premiership team and freo + hawks still a possibility.

 

[Rack Watts]

Wce should still win their next 3 (derby coll bris)

Because this season is that clear cut.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Because this season is that clear cut.

Of course not but they should.

 

[Great8]

13 teams still a possibility.

Outside the 8 west coast and essendon have easy draws, bulldogs have a premiership team and freo + hawks still a possibility.

Minute possiblity of us making it.
Our season could be definitely over by Friday night

 

[autocol]

The top 8 is set.

I reckon the the wheels could still come off the Dees, Tigers and Saints, so I wouldn't go the early crow just yet.

 

[footy75]

Ruling out:

Carlton
Brisbane
North
Collingwood
Hawthorn
Fremantle
Gold Coast
Essendon

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

People ruling teams just outside of the 8 at this stage as missing finals are crazy, considering the season we have seen so far.

Hawthorn ended Sydney's finals hopes over a month ago according to every man and his dog, and they are now in the 8.

Who know's what another 4 weeks of results could do to the bottom half of the ladder.

 

[RUNVS]

Ruling out:

Carlton
Brisbane
North
Collingwood
Hawthorn
Fremantle
Gold Coast
Essendon

I am not prepared to entirely rule out Hawthorn or Essendon.

 

[Great8]

I am not prepared to entirely rule out Hawthorn or Essendon.

On current form the Saints should account for us easily and the Cats will demolish the Hawks. Would be very tough from there to make it

 

[footy75]

I am not prepared to entirely rule out Hawthorn or Essendon.

Do a ladder predictor and I bet you do.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

The top 8 is set.

Think it is looking most probable... but then again this season throws up curve balls just when you think you have worked it out.

 

[RUNVS]

The thing for the Swans is every game is like a final. We can afford 2 slip ups, maybe 3, but that is it.

 

[sonnywalters]

I am ruling the Dogs out. Cannot and will not make it from here.
Hangover is a a bad one. They simply dont care enough this season. Basically ruling themselves out.

 

[aussierulesrules]

We have a really tough 3 weeks coming up.

This week we play Essendon, who are a very capable team and it's our 2nd six day break in a row and one of them was coming back from Perth and I reckon we would have been pretty stuffed by the end of yesterday's game, given that we were a rotation down for the last 45 mins or so and coming off a 6 day break and said trip to Perth.

Then there's the fact that Membrey (5 goals) is likely to miss and possibly Newnes (who was on track for 40 disposals when he got injured) and it will need to be our 5th win in a row, and we'll also have to avoid drinking our own bathwater, as we're likely to get pumped up in the media this week.

Then the following two weeks we have Sydney at the SCG and Port in Adelaide and we probably won't have Membrey for those two either.

At this point in time I'd gladly take one win and no big percentage losses from those 3 games.

 

[JackOutback]

Wce should still win their next 3 (derby coll bris) so they are not done. But they will probably have to beat adel in round 23 to get in, no margin for error now.

Dogs have got to win 5 or 6 (which means beating gws or port and winning the rest) and make up about 20 % they are more done than WC IMO.

Eagles' draw is soft-ish, they have JK to come back, Lycett to build form and possibly NN to come in. Should make it but will be making up the numbers this year.

 

[Quinz]

We've played 8 top 8 sides this year, our draw is slightly easier from here although we still play another three.

Every current top 8 side has played 6 or fewer other top sides, so the draw may have had some effect on the standings and could have an impact in the last month and a half.

Geelong, Sydney, Melbourne, Port have played 5 top 8 sides.
GWS, Richmond, St Kilda and Adelaide have played 6 top 8 sides.

 

[Quinz]

So I thought I'd look at who has games against the top 8 to come, ranked by points first and least games left second, also included home state and interstate breakdown which is interesting.


Pts P H I
Adelaide 44 4 3 1
GWS 44 4 2 2
Geelong 42 4 3 1
Port Adelaide 36 3 2 1
Richmond 36 3 3
Melbourne 36 4 3 1
St Kilda 36 4 2 2
West Coast 32 3 1 2
Sydney 32 4 2 2
Essendon 28 2 2
Western Bulldogs 28 2 1 1
Fremantle 28 3 1 2
Hawthorn 26 3 3
Gold Coast 24 2 1 1
Carlton 20 2 1 1
Collingwood 20 4 3 1
North 16 3 2 1
Brisbane 12 2 2

For me I think that means Melbourne, Sydney and St Kilda are in slight danger, with Essendon and the Dogs possibilities to come in. Eagles still play two away games so they have very little margin for error.

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

Brisbane
Carlton
Collingwood
Gold Coast
Hawthorn

maybe

Melbourne (have injuries, but so disappointing)

The first 5 are the only ones I'd definitively rule out at this stage.

Now 7 rounds further in, I'll stick with

Brisbane
Carlton
Collingwood
Gold Coast
Hawthorn

and add

North (don't know why I missed them first time around)
Bulldogs
Freo

The top 8 will come from the current top 10 sides.

I think WCE and St Kilda will be 9th and 10th.

There could be another Sydney derby 1st week of the finals.

 

[Ok Boomer]

West Coast if Priddis plays another game tbh.

 

[willydave]

So I thought I'd look at who has games against the top 8 to come, ranked by points first and least games left second, also included home state and interstate breakdown which is interesting.


Pts P H I
Adelaide 44 4 3 1
GWS 44 4 2 2
Geelong 42 4 3 1
Port Adelaide 36 3 2 1
Richmond 36 3 3
Melbourne 36 4 3 1
St Kilda 36 4 2 2
West Coast 32 3 1 2
Sydney 32 4 2 2
Essendon 28 2 2
Western Bulldogs 28 2 1 1
Fremantle 28 3 1 2
Hawthorn 26 3 3
Gold Coast 24 2 1 1
Carlton 20 2 1 1
Collingwood 20 4 3 1
North 16 3 2 1
Brisbane 12 2 2

For me I think that means Melbourne, Sydney and St Kilda are in slight danger, with Essendon and the Dogs possibilities to come in. Eagles still play two away games so they have very little margin for error.

I reckon that's a very good summary.

You'd like to think the pitiful Tigers could come out, but their draw is too easy from here on in. I think both us and the Saints are a much better chance of winning a final than the Tigers.

For us, it all depends whether Brisbane and Collingwood throw in the towel. We could get some big wins toward he end of the season.

I have us beating the Roos, Lions and Pies. Oddly enough I give us a really good chance against GWS, we should have Salem, Watts, Tyson and Viney back. Jones should get in with a couple of games left.

I reckon it's still wide open.

 

[Spoken4]

Eagles' draw is soft-ish, they have JK to come back, Lycett to build form and possibly NN to come in. Should make it but will be making up the numbers this year.

Would be insanity if West Coast are contemplating bringing NicNat back this year. You don't bring back your best player at the tail end of a season after 12 months out with a major injury and no pre-season. Not unless you want to end his career prematurely.

 

[Heaps of fun]

I think after that loss we're probably out of the race now.

 

[kaiserchief13]

The thing for the Swans is every game is like a final. We can afford 2 slip ups, maybe 3, but that is it.

Isn't that the same for every team?

 

[HairyO]

I am not prepared to entirely rule out Hawthorn or Essendon.

I am. I have thought for the last few months we would sneak up to 10th.

But if we beat Geelong then there is still a tiny chance.

 

[Bokonon_]

On current form the Saints should account for us easily and the Cats will demolish the Hawks. Would be very tough from there to make it

Not sure form suggests the Cats demolish the Hawks. I think that's 50-50.
A month ago I thought the Bombers would make it, based on a better balanced list than the other contenders. I haven 't changed but your guys do need to string wins together now to have a chance.