Tennis French Open 2020- Mens and Womens

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ricardogp

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I think Bertens gets over her wheelchair drama tonight, kvitova will be a different class to Zhang and Sinner is too short for once.

1u Bertens -4.5 @1.91
1u Kvitova/Zhang under 20.5 @1.87
2u Zverev -3.5 @1.85



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ricardogp

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Jeez... Swiatek rolling against Halep! I was looking seriously at her handicap. Looking at the current Bertens score, it looks like I picked the wrong one

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ricardogp

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I think Bertens gets over her wheelchair drama tonight, kvitova will be a different class to Zhang and Sinner is too short for once.

1u Bertens -4.5 @1.91
1u Kvitova/Zhang under 20.5 @1.87
2u Zverev -3.5 @1.85
L-Pend-L

So after the game Zverev says to the press he was feeling sick before & after... :drunk:

Got to admit though, that Sinner bloke is header straight into the top 20.


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juss

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So last night was the first night the 'Dog strategy hasn't turned a profit. Amazingly that it's taken this long, but with Carreno Busta, Rublev, Tsitsipas, Siegemund and Kvitova all winning, the result was about 5 units down for the night.

Overwhelmingly though, the +units profit is still well up since I've started this, so will share the end data at the end.

It will be very interesting to see how the favourites v dogs plays at the business end of the tournament.
My suspicion is the underdogs are good plays in the first few rounds when they can catch the market off guard, but by this point, all the players have well established form in this tournament and the market has a better idea of who's playing well enough to win so the value isn't there as much.
 

ricardogp

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It will be very interesting to see how the favourites v dogs plays at the business end of the tournament.
My suspicion is the underdogs are good plays in the first few rounds when they can catch the market off guard, but by this point, all the players have well established form in this tournament and the market has a better idea of who's playing well enough to win so the value isn't there as much.
I think there is still value if you look. I'm already on PCB to win a set for 2.60 at Ladbrokes. I think Djokovic winning this 3-0 more than 60% of the time is silly so I'm already on this.

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ricardogp

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1u PCB to win a set (vs Djokovic) @2.60
0.5u Trevisan @6

I know that Swiatek is WTA's new darling, but Trevisan has had almost as impressive a run up to the QF as Swiatek. I think way too much money has come in for Swiatek. So might as well dip into Trevisan.

Currently thinking about the overs as well...

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targett

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1u PCB to win a set (vs Djokovic) @2.60
0.5u Trevisan @6

I know that Swiatek is WTA's new darling, but Trevisan has had almost as impressive a run up to the QF as Swiatek. I think way too much money has come in for Swiatek. So might as well dip into Trevisan.

Currently thinking about the overs as well...

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Hey mate check your PM
 

ricardogp

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1u Kvitova outright @4

I think with Collins playing a day late and svitolina on the ropes in set 2, it's well in the sights of Kvitova to take the title.

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NonPhixion

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Just watched that Match Fixing game. oh boy... That has Pakistan no-balls written all over it.
the first double fault was pretty blatant, then she falls over for no reason at all on the next point.. They chat to each other a couple times at the start and on love-40 too. They are in trouble
 

ricardogp

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Both? Rublev has won the last 2 of last 3, but only one was clay and only one was best of 5.

Market probably thinks that 3 victories to love make Tsitsipas a suitable fave.
 

juss

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Last few nights have been a Yo-Yo, one night the faves got on top followed by the dogs and vice versa.
Has held steady the last few days, so as expected the dogs not showing as much success as they were in the first few rounds when the strategy was very profitable.

I'll be having a dabble on Podoroska, Tsitsipas, Kenin and Schwartzman all at 1U each. Given the odds, probably only need one of the big outsiders to win to break even (or profit in some cases), although a Kenin win which I think is the most likely of those upsets will see us escape only about 2U down.

With fewer games, we are now down to the elite's of the tournament in most cases now, so it's always hard to get a win against a Djoker and Nadal. I think Podoroska and Kenin are well worth punts though at the odds.
 

juss

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Busta salutes in the first.

Had a little bit of other money on QF dogs but won't record it here.

+1.1u


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I had the Spaniard as per the Dog, paying a healthy $12.5, when he went up in the first I had a bit of a thrill, but I went to bed just knowing Djokovic would come back and win 3-1. Nothing was surer in my mind.

I actually thought Rublev was a really good dog pick at $2.78 that I got him, he's been brilliant on clay recently so thought it would be a lot closer. Very surprised he lost in straight sets.
 

ricardogp

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Wow, so I had Swiatek as an outright for Rome, and she failed to make it past the first round.

Despite still hearing chatter about her I decided not to take her as an outright for the FO.



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juss

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Wow, so I had Swiatek as an outright for Rome, and she failed to make it past the first round.

Despite still hearing chatter about her I decided not to take her as an outright for the FO.



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Could have given me 20 picks and I doubt I've had had her in my selections.

Unseeded and ranked 54 coming in, although she'd had some solid returns in the AO and US for a 19 year old, nothing suggested she'd get close to winning. Had never previously made the R16 of any Grand Slam.

She had an absolute dream run, and I dont mean that in the sense she got lucky, I mean that in the sense sometimes things align for a player where they just play their best tennis every match and ride high on form and confidence and it seems no one can stop them. This is the absolute hottest of hot patches that a young player could ever ask for.

It would have been an absolute hail mary pick, and the odds rightly reflected that. Even a 100-1 pick should happen once every hundred times, and this was probably one of those situations where everything goes right for that player and they just keep winning.
 

ricardogp

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Her and Podoroska are 2 to watch going forward. But anyone who beats 2 top 10 players and doesn't drop a set the whole tournament deserves to be champ.

I think I was only looking at her for QF winner. The people I saw take her for winner were planning on trading her out but then...

Interesting stat... There have been 9 first-time winners in the last 14 women's majors. So maybe you just have to pick the *right* 100-1 winner.


Anyway, as a true degen I'll be looking at the right time to oppose her now that the markets love her. Probably on hard court...



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juss

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Her and Podoroska are 2 to watch going forward. But anyone who beats 2 top 10 players and doesn't drop a set the whole tournament deserves to be champ.

I think I was only looking at her for QF winner. The people I saw take her for winner were planning on trading her out but then...

Interesting stat... There have been 9 first-time winners in the last 14 women's majors. So maybe you just have to pick the *right* 100-1 winner.


Anyway, as a true degen I'll be looking at the right time to oppose her now that the markets love her. Probably on hard court...



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Correct, she'll likely have young player inconsistencies over the hard court summer season where some of the American, Australian and eastern European like the Russians and Czechs are more suited.

I doubt her development will be linear from here, it might be some time before she contends for another Slam.
 

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