Tennis French Open 2020- Mens and Womens

[ricardogp]

1u Kazatkina @2.40
1u Podoroska @1.92 (but can get 1.95)
1u Badosa @2.75
1u Tig - 3.5 @1.96

1u Bedene @1.85

Might be it for me... Been opposing a lot of Yanks and there's only a few left... I recall things also get slimmer after the first week.

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[ricardogp]

I am tempted by Carlos Baena against Shapovalov at $5 though (is opposing a Canadian the same as opposing an American??)

Baena has spent a lot more time on clay but Shapovalov seems to be able to handle himself. So still thinking about it.

Ladbrokes do have Baena to win a set at $1.80 though (have seen only $1.63 elsewhere) so I'll have a unit on that.

Spread of 6.5 also tempting if it's around even money.

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[ricardogp]

FYI all... After I posted the RCB/Shapovalov bet, I noticed that the odds on Sportsbet came in a bit but the odds on Ladbrokes didn't.

Currently there is an arb available for playing RCB to win a set on LB (still 1.80 of writing this) and laying it on SB (at 2.37). If you have bonus bets as well (as SB have been sending out) then you're laughing.

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[ricardogp]

I am tempted by Carlos Baena against Shapovalov at $5 though (is opposing a Canadian the same as opposing an American??)

Baena has spent a lot more time on clay but Shapovalov seems to be able to handle himself. So still thinking about it.

Ladbrokes do have Baena to win a set at $1.80 though (have seen only $1.63 elsewhere) so I'll have a unit on that.

Spread of 6.5 also tempting if it's around even money.

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Bugger... Should have split my bonus bets and put 1/4 on the win!

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[juss]

I'm not sure if it's just the COVID season or the uniqueness of clay courts, but I ran a bit of an experiment over the first 2 rounds of the FO. I used to spend my bets on tennis favourites, looking through the data and trying to find the best favourites. The winning percentage and hit rate was obviously pretty solid, but at odds ranging from $1.40-$1.95 even with a good hit rate, it wasn't enough to make a good profit. The profits of 2-3 winning bets could often be wiped by one upset.

Decided that doing the opposite by the odds represented better value if the first strategy wasn't working, so started backing exclusively outside favourites. For some of the big outsiders, a winning bet covers multiple losses. E.g. I hit a $5 winner in Altmaier last night, covers a lot of losses.

So far, experiment has landed (small sample size of about 20 bets) but +60% ROI over the first two rounds, I am very keen to see if this extends to the later rounds of a slam, or to other lower level tournaments, or to other slams/court surfaces, etc.

The data so far suggests when backing favourites, less = more, and fewer bets on "better" favourites is the way to go otherwise the small odds eventually just cut you down or you hover at even money.

With outsiders, you need volume, you need to be backing more because you are waiting to catch those big odds winners that cover your expected losses, e.g. you expect to lose more individual bets than you win, but when you do get enough $2.5 winners supplemented with those big odds winners of $4+ you cover your losses and then some.

 

[ricardogp]

I think the clay season does tend to upset things, as punters will often mix form which will result in underdog value & winners (e.g. I've learnt to oppose US players, who don't have as much clay experience as European players, but may still be in the $1.50 range). I've also heard tennis pundits talk about 'post-covid restart' as a factor in player form and readiness.

But surely your comments just point to finding value in general? The value might lie in the fav, or as you've found for the FO the value might lie in the dog. But if you find regular value (and I think the clay season tends to exacerbate the value) then you'll be in front, right?

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[iluvparis]

I stopped betting on tennis because the small profit I could generate was just not worth the time trawling through all the matches. My best profits though came from just trying to focus on 1 or 2 players who tended to be underpriced by the market and then keep following them until the market caught up.

Alize Cornet was one of my better plays back in the day (as well as being extremely fappable).

 

[juss]

I think the clay season does tend to upset things, as punters will often mix form which will result in underdog value & winners (e.g. I've learnt to oppose US players, who don't have as much clay experience as European players, but may still be in the $1.50 range). I've also heard tennis pundits talk about 'post-covid restart' as a factor in player form and readiness.

But surely your comments just point to finding value in general? The value might lie in the fav, or as you've found for the FO the value might lie in the dog. But if you find regular value (and I think the clay season tends to exacerbate the value) then you'll be in front, right?

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In short yes, but what I'm finding is it's easier to find value in underdogs than in favourites, suggesting maybe the market overrates faves/ underrates dogs and therefore the value is more often in the outsider?

 

[ricardogp]

Yes, like I suggested, I think the clay season tends to exacerbate the value. I've had an unbelievable run on the thread, but even if I dropped down to 50/50 winners I'm pretty sure I'd still be a few units up.

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[ricardogp]

Alize Cornet was one of my better plays back in the day (as well as being extremely fappable).

I believe Eugene Bouchard was also in that category for a while.

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[ricardogp]

Like Paris says, there are certainly players that the market underrates for a while. If you listen to tennis chatter you can pick up and coming breakthroughs. I recall last year Anisimova and Sinner were both profitable for a while.

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[ricardogp]

1u Kazatkina @2.40
1u Podoroska @1.92 (but can get 1.95)
1u Badosa @2.75
1u Tig - 3.5 @1.96

1u Bedene @1.85

L-pending-W-W-W

Ladbrokes do have Baena to win a set at $1.80 though (have seen only $1.63 elsewhere) so I'll have a unit on that.

W

+3.35u

Jeez... +12.5u for the tourney. I'm flabbergasted, after a sh*t US open. I wonder if it's because there was such a quick transition to clay because of COVID messing up the schedules?

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[juss]

Like Paris says, there are certainly players that the market underrates for a while. If you listen to tennis chatter you can pick up and coming breakthroughs. I recall last year Anisimova and Sinner were both profitable for a while.

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Cori Gauff has been mine over the last year. She still has her losses sure, but she's still often a market outsider against more experienced players that she is more than capable of beating and I've made a profit from her.

 

[ricardogp]

I wouldn't mind analysing average price winners and deviation from the spread for RG vs rest of the year. I think it's been more lucrative for dogs the last 2 years.

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[ricardogp]

2u Krejikova (v Pironkova) @2.01

Just been reading people on twitter who are querying the pricing of this match. Pironkova has played only 2 games on clay since 2017, whereas Krejikova has beaten & challenged good players in the last couple of months (including taking a set of Halep).

It seems any price on Krejikova as a dog is a good price.


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[Hamingja]

I'm not sure if it's just the COVID season or the uniqueness of clay courts, but I ran a bit of an experiment over the first 2 rounds of the FO. I used to spend my bets on tennis favourites, looking through the data and trying to find the best favourites. The winning percentage and hit rate was obviously pretty solid, but at odds ranging from $1.40-$1.95 even with a good hit rate, it wasn't enough to make a good profit. The profits of 2-3 winning bets could often be wiped by one upset.

Decided that doing the opposite by the odds represented better value if the first strategy wasn't working, so started backing exclusively outside favourites. For some of the big outsiders, a winning bet covers multiple losses. E.g. I hit a $5 winner in Altmaier last night, covers a lot of losses.

So far, experiment has landed (small sample size of about 20 bets) but +60% ROI over the first two rounds, I am very keen to see if this extends to the later rounds of a slam, or to other lower level tournaments, or to other slams/court surfaces, etc.

The data so far suggests when backing favourites, less = more, and fewer bets on "better" favourites is the way to go otherwise the small odds eventually just cut you down or you hover at even money.

With outsiders, you need volume, you need to be backing more because you are waiting to catch those big odds winners that cover your expected losses, e.g. you expect to lose more individual bets than you win, but when you do get enough $2.5 winners supplemented with those big odds winners of $4+ you cover your losses and then some.

I think pretty hard to find the big outsiders consistently. I think in the first couple of rounds in any tournament the $1.40-$1.50 faves are the ones you want to be against. They are the match ups where the sharp money is on the outsider. You see it a lot at the smaller tournaments over best of 3 sets where you have qualifiers that have a couple of matches under their belts catching the much better player cold in round 1 (or round 2 even if they are a top seed and get a bye). You look at it and think the much better player should be $1.20 in the match up but when they start $1.40 it is a massive trap.

 

[ricardogp]

I recall a stat which was something like players who had been through qualification at RG were 6-3 in R1. Some cited momentum, some familiarity with the conditions. But some of them certainly did really well.

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[Hamingja]

I wouldn't be so keen on the strategy holding up at grand slams as players should be going in reasonably prepared for them and they are playing for good money. More the smaller tournaments at the start of swings where players are going from Europe to North America, North America to Asia, etc.

 

[ricardogp]

Yeah, I think the sudden switch from the US hard court swing to Europe/clay together with the unfamiliar conditions (being played what... 4/5 months later than usual?) gave the qualifiers an edge.

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[juss]

All good points which is why I'm keen to explore this further as the hard court season approaches.

 

[ricardogp]

1u Podoroska @1.92 (but can get 1.95)

W

2u Krejikova (v Pironkova) @2.01

W

+2.94u

Tourney: +15.45u

So far lost outrights on Kudemetova, Ruud and Mertens. Waiting on Jabeur (QF), Martic (QF) and Djokovic (Win)


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[juss]

Well the dog strategy saluted again. Bertens, Sonego, Korda, Trevisan all paid for the losses and then some.

 

[ricardogp]

Jeez... How did I not spot that Bertens was a dog??

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[ricardogp]

"overplaying" probably right then??

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[juss]

Jeez... How did I not spot that Bertens was a dog??

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It didn't make sense when I saw it, she was too big a price for their respective numbers.