The 100-goal forward - are they now extinct?

[John Who]

I don't think it takes too much genius to notice the game now is becoming heavily congested with the modern theme being "team defense". This perhaps help to keep contests tighter and scores being closer to even than in the past, but at what cost? The obvious downside is the increased difficulty for a forward to continually kick bags of goals, and we are seeing this in clear evidence when looking at the trend of Coleman winners in the last 50 years:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coleman_Medal

To have some sort of perspective, here is a general trend:

* Last 20 years (2000-2019): 1 Coleman winner kicking 100+ goals - Franklin in 2008

* Previous 20 years (1980-1999): 14 Coleman winners kicking 100+ goals

Where in the past it would be odd not to see a forward kicking 100+ goals. Nowadays it looks increasingly rare, to the point, is it now extinct from the game?

Are we ok with this issue, or would we prefer the game to be modified to give the forwards a better chance to kick bigger bags?

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

I don't think teams are focusing on "team defense" in order to keep games tight

 

[PP34]

It doesn’t happen because it’s much harder to defend a forward line that has multiple targets rather than kicking it to the same bloke for most of the game.

 

[Topkent]

I don't think teams are focusing on "team defense" in order to keep games tight

Why don't you try answering the thread question instead of posting this crap

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

Why don't you try answering the thread question instead of posting this crap

Don't get offended please

 

[Topkent]

It doesn’t happen because it’s much harder to defend a forward line that has multiple targets rather than kicking it to the same bloke for most of the game.

I'm Not even convinced this is true, so often the ball gets kicked to a resting mid now who isn't a very good forward and doesn't practice his set shot kicking. It also means the crumbers have no idea where to position

 

[Freomaniac]

I don't think it takes too much genius to notice the game now is becoming heavily congested with the modern theme being "team defense". This perhaps help to keep contests tighter and scores being closer to even than in the past, but at what cost? The obvious downside is the increased difficulty for a forward to continually kick bags of goals, and we are seeing this in clear evidence when looking at the trend of Coleman winners in the last 50 years:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coleman_Medal

To have some sort of perspective, here is a general trend:

* Last 20 years (2000-2019): 1 Coleman winner kicking 100+ goals - Franklin in 2008

* Previous 20 years (1980-1999): 14 Coleman winners kicking 100+ goals

Where in the past it would be odd not to see a forward kicking 100+ goals. Nowadays it looks increasingly rare, to the point, is it now extinct from the game?

Are we ok with this issue, or would we prefer the game to be modified to give the forwards a better chance to kick bigger bags?

Fev also kicked 99 goals for carlton in 2008 and was robbed of a free kick in that final game of the season... Ironically against Buddys hawks.

 

[LawrenceJameson]

Went to a game at the G in the 90s when Ablett kicked 14 and Salmon 10, an unbelievable spectacle. Doubt that will ever happen again.


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[The Airing of Grievances]

It is certainly difficult to see a player bringing up the ton while current rules and team tactics remain in the ascendancy. But the game has gone through many evolutionary changes over time so you need to take a long term view. There were few century goalkickers between the retirement of john Coleman and the rise of Hudson, mcKenna and Jesaulenko in the late 60s and team scores were also at similar levels to the present for much of that 50s/60s era. Of increased scores from the late 60s, both by teams and key forwards were helped by introduction of the OOF rule and better ground surfaces, and in the case of individual season tallies by an increase in the number of matches.
Modern forwards do have the help of closer umpiring scrutiny of scragging and chopping the arms but face challenges such as flooding . But IMHO their principal problem is the shortage of quick ball movement into the forward line , largely driven by the mantra that it is a sin to kick to a "contest". Often a player in the clear around or just forward of centre and looking toward goal will opt to chip sideways or handball to a player frequently in no better position than himself, rather than kick to a leading forward whom he judges not to be sufficiently clear of an opponent because there is too much risk. Of course the chip kick to retain possession further upfield also greatly reduces the spaces in which to lead, particularly toward the middle of the ground forcing more shots from marks to be taken from wider angles.
However who's to say current rules and practices won't change and turn all this on its head. Extinct? Too early to make that call for mine.

 

[John Who]

Fev also kicked 99 goals for carlton in 2008 and was robbed of a free kick in that final game of the season... Ironically against Buddys hawks.

Was a pretty special year considering the scarcity of goals produced in recent years across the entire board.

Though in the 80s-90s we were regularly seeing 2 or more 100-goal forwards per year a la Dunstall, Lockett, Ablett and Modra. 100 goals and pack marks were prominent features back then where nowadays much less so.

 

[John Who]

It is certainly difficult to see a player bringing up the ton while current rules and team tactics remain in the ascendancy. But the game has gone through many evolutionary changes over time so you need to take a long term view. There were few century goalkickers between the retirement of john Coleman and the rise of Hudson, mcKenna and Jesaulenko in the late 60s and team scores were also at similar levels to the present for much of that 50s/60s era. Of increased scores from the late 60s, both by teams and key forwards were helped by introduction of the OOF rule and better ground surfaces, and in the case of individual season tallies by an increase in the number of matches.
Modern forwards do have the help of closer umpiring scrutiny of scragging and chopping the arms but face challenges such as flooding . But IMHO their principal problem is the shortage of quick ball movement into the forward line , largely driven by the mantra that it is a sin to kick to a "contest". Often a player in the clear around or just forward of centre and looking toward goal will opt to chip sideways or handball to a player frequently in no better position than himself, rather than kick to a leading forward whom he judges not to be sufficiently clear of an opponent because there is too much risk. Of course the chip kick to retain possession further upfield also greatly reduces the spaces in which to lead, particularly toward the middle of the ground forcing more shots from marks to be taken from wider angles.
However who's to say current rules and practices won't change and turn all this on its head. Extinct? Too early to make that call for mine.

Very well thought out response!
The OP is merely posing the question: if no rule changes occur and the team defense mentality continues, will it be possible to see another 100-goal forward?

I’m actually seriously thinking “no”.

 

[HTT]

I don’t think they’re extinct, it’s all cyclical. But we’re near the bottom of that cycle right now. And frankly I don’t care. It’s a team sport.

 

[John Who]

I don’t think they’re extinct, it’s all cyclical. But we’re near the bottom of that cycle right now. And frankly I don’t care. It’s a team sport.

What makes you say it’s cyclical, when it doesn’t appear to be this trend?

 

[blitzer]

The 100 goal forward generally got a ton more space to work in than the modern player does. Teams didn't know how to guard leading space half as well as modern players. Maybe some day there will be an absolute freak that manages it. It will be easier during years with expansion teams too or some other reason for abysmally weak teams.

Considering you would need to average close to 5 goals a game, its just kind of hard to see it right now. Nobody is putting up those kind of numbers consistently. In fact no one is even averaging 4 goals consistently right now. We are past the primes of the likes of Franklin/Kennedy so it will be up to the next generation now.

 

[Ablett2Garland]

Should be some money incentive or prize (marquee club fixture for following year) for players kicking 100 goals these days.

 

[Coaster2012]

The 100 point team is even endangered. 100 goal player is a long way off.

 

[Belnakor]

Cameron has kicked 40 this year, if his team plays 4 finals he isn't without a hope of making it.

 

[The Casey Cat]

The 100 point team is even endangered. 100 goal player is a long way off.

Yep this. Teams and players just aren't able to score enough. Maybe when interchanges are brought right back. Even then coaches will still probably find a way to clog things up.

 

[Benny78]

Top forwards other than Buddy shouldn't be paid over 500k and Buddy isn't my ideal forward anyway. Would rather a more classic key forward Hawkins/90s type of player that gets a lot more of the ball. Start paying them less so they work harder and improve

 

[FreoMonocle]

Most of the big scores came from KPF's. KPF's had a unique height advantage and as a consequence you could just send the ball to them without it being much of a contest. Now most teams have enough monsters that they can afford to have a few up forward/defence, a few on the injury list and a few on the list as depth.

Also. You played mid or forward if you were good, Ruck if you were mind bogglingly enormous and KPF if you were tall and good. Defence was your position if you weren't good enough to be a mid or forward, defense as a craft has improved and not only that, it's taught instead of overlooked..

Sure there is less space on the park with the athleticism these days, but tall forwards play against someone as big and as talented these days, not against witches hats.

 

[Schauermann]

Cameron has kicked 40 this year, if his team plays 4 finals he isn't without a hope of making it.

After rounds 7 he looked capable when playing 24-25 games. But his average went down a bit since. On track to be a 70 goal Coleman medalist.

 

[juss]

For one, coaches are a lot smarter defensively these days and they try different things. Their tactics no longer revolve around just putting their best defender on him and getting a good old fashioned 1 on 1 contest. Offensively, coaches also want more of a spread because it's too easy to defend one player and then what happens if they get injured or aren't playing well?

If players can still kick 70-80 goals every now and then, someone will come along soon enough and kick 100 again it just depends how tactics evolve over time. They will probably need to be a great mobile athlete with defense and endurance, and a long accurate kick which is key. Also need to play in the right team and system.

It will happen, but far less often for obvious reasons.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

It doesn’t happen because it’s much harder to defend a forward line that has multiple targets rather than kicking it to the same bloke for most of the game.

If this were the reason, why didn't everyone adopt this strategy in the 100 years the game was played before 2000? There's more to it like other posters have mentioned, defenders are bigger and have better tactics assisting them now.

 

[Tandy]

Was hoping Cameron would get there. Doubtful now, Hawkins isn't far away in the Coleman. I'd love to see 100 again

 

[branedotorg]

Bring back pagan's paddock