The 2011 MLB Thread

[twarby]

good get with the Mets, they had very good steam, i had them and Kansas City.

no luck with my O/U

 

[mattys123]

My first "decent" sized bet of the MLB season tomorrow, after a few small wins, mainly on the Yankees at home.

SF Giants - WIN @ 1.75

The World Champs have started the season terribly, mainly due to their defense, which has probably cost them 2 of their 4 losses.

Tomorrow sees Lincecum return for his 2nd start of the season, in what must now be considered a must win game.

The Giants offense hasn't been too bad, apart from today's game where they only managed a run, they even put up 10 against the Dodgers in their only win.

Usually when Lincecum pitches, the Giants will be 1.50 -1.60, so 1.75 is good enough for me.

 

[Nothing]

Going to roll with the Mets again, not quite as nice odds though.

Also having a dabble on Seattle and Oakland.

Seeing as I have a positive win/loss I'll keep a record

3-1 75% (If only soho could hit at 75%) The only losing leg was the only short-priced favourite (NYY).

 

[Nothing]

Going to roll with the Mets again, not quite as nice odds though.

Also having a dabble on Seattle and Oakland.

Seeing as I have a positive win/loss I'll keep a record

3-1 75% (If only soho could hit at 75%) The only losing leg was the only short-priced favourite (NYY).

0-3 which takes me below 50% so recording Win/Loss didn't last long.

 

[mattys123]

My first "decent" sized bet of the MLB season tomorrow, after a few small wins, mainly on the Yankees at home.

SF Giants - WIN @ 1.75

Nice collect, last time we'll see 1.75 on a Lincecum game unless he is facing another all star pitcher.

 

[Nothing]

Anyone on Seattle today? Giving up 10 runs in the 4th (still going)

 

[twarby]

all ML

Houston
Arizona
Detroit
Tampa Bay
Baltimore
Atlanta

 

[danielz_23]

How is everyone tracking on the baseball?

Found the first post interesting where it was said this is a hard sport to win on, I've read that it is actually the easiest and naturally the worst sport for bookmakers. You aren't going to get the big returns in single bets, but the good teams, form teams and good pitchers can make for predictable results.

I think if you are extremely selective and use a consistent wagering strategy you can turn a tidy profit... not that I have... nor I am convinced I am disciplined enough but am trying!

Started the season betting the Yankees who were up 4-0 in the 8th until Soriano walked 4 and Yankees lost 5-4!! Followed it with a win and loss on the run lines... 1-2 so far.

 

[Nothing]

Started well but the last few days have been brutal. I have lost about 80% of my bets in the last 3 days (on MLB).

 

[dr nick]

I havent done much baseball punting except for post season, but so far this year have only backed Phillies games with Halladay, Lee or Oswalt pitching.

5-1

 

[mattys123]

2 bets for tomorrow/today.

San Fransisco - WIN @ 1.91 (Back to a 4-5 record, welcoming the hated Dodgers into SF for the first time this year, with Bumgarner pitching for the first time at home this year, where he was tough to beat last year)

NY METS - WIN @ 1.88 (This is a "gut bet", Pelfry had a shocker first up, but he is still a very good pitcher, and against the Rockies this far from home, I give the Mets the edge here, who will be "steaming" coming off an extra innings loss at home)

I was going to pull the trigger on the Red Sox again, but even today, apart from Becketts' pitching, they weren't that impressive, so I won't touch them (again) for a while yet.

 

[danielz_23]

I havent done much baseball punting except for post season, but so far this year have only backed Phillies games with Halladay, Lee or Oswalt pitching.

5-1

A sound plan, its the bats that are winning games for them. Super hot!

I am having a go at Chicago-Houston over 8.5 runs - got burnt by Sabathia and Yankees today - again! poor showing with ARod out.

 

[sblack]

White Sox v A's - Over 8.5

 

[danielz_23]

White Sox v A's - Over 8.5

I am having a go at Chicago-Houston over 8.5 runs

back in the game!

Looking at tomorrows game I like:

San Francisco win (Lincecum) 1.60
LA Angers win (Haren) 1.59
Texas win (Wilson) 1.77

I also like the Texas-Det and Phillies-Wash games for runs but not sure if I want to battle the 8.5 line again.

I'll post my final choice late on @Baseball_Bets

 

[sblack]

Backing some dogs according to a system. Will be interesting to see how it tracks further along into the season.

Pitt @ 2.07
St.Louis @ 2.16
Texas @ 2.20
Tampa @ 2.43
Oakland @ 2.06
Cleveland @ 2.40

All 1u.

 

[dr nick]

A sound plan, its the bats that are winning games for them. Super hot!

only Ibanez is less than .300

(ps: not sure i'd chose a game with Halladay for >8.5 runs... unless your talking about Blanton/Hernandez )

 

[danielz_23]

only Ibanez is less than .300

(ps: not sure i'd chose a game with Halladay for >8.5 runs... unless your talking about Blanton/Hernandez )

Yeah it was the Blanton game for sure!

I lost on San Francisco -1.5 yesterday (those 1.5 lines! greed got me - something like 1.55 win, 2.35 -1.5... figured I was willing to pay for the run) and i got me hook line and sinker.

As such went Philadelphia straight up today and collected, I thought it was over but final score was close.

 

[sblack]

Backing some dogs according to a system. Will be interesting to see how it tracks further along into the season.

Pitt @ 2.07
St.Louis @ 2.16
Texas @ 2.20
Tampa @ 2.43 (PP)
Oakland @ 2.06
Cleveland @ 2.40

All 1u.

2-3-1: (0.75u)

Todays

Nationals @ 2.45
Marlins @ 2.25
Twins @ 2.16
Mariners @ 2.20
Tigers @ 2.41
Padres @ 1.98

1u each.

Rockies would have been a play for Game 1, but missed it.

 

[danielz_23]

Found this website for those interested -

It is pretty big in the US for people to pay handicappers to give them selections to bet - anything from $25 to $100+ (a day!!!)

These website posts a free pick from one or two handicappers a day... over the course of this week I'd say 80% have come through.

Over time you may find a preferred capper' - I've seen two picks from Rob Vinciletti that have come through well.


http://www.capperspicks.com/handicappers/free-sports-picks/

 

[Cruiser23]

How's everyone fairing so far?

I might start tracking my bets here like i did with the NBA as i'm off to a good start this season.

 

[danielz_23]

How's everyone fairing so far?

I might start tracking my bets here like i did with the NBA as i'm off to a good start this season.

My strike rate wasn't going too well so I changed course... fair to say there is no such thing as a sure thing in baseball...

Sure you may get a long term strike rate of 60% or something but it takes some work!

 

[twarby]

My strike rate wasn't going too well so I changed course... fair to say there is no such thing as a sure thing in baseball...

Sure you may get a long term strike rate of 60% or something but it takes some work!

you won't hit over 60% in mlb

the key is to ride out the lows with the highs, too many people just try to tail "hot" cappers and soon enough they go cold, so they hop onto someone else.
stick to a system and you will come out on top.

 

[danielz_23]

you won't hit over 60% in mlb

the key is to ride out the lows with the highs, too many people just try to tail "hot" cappers and soon enough they go cold, so they hop onto someone else.
stick to a system and you will come out on top.

in handicapped markets you'd want to be around that mark to make it worthwhile wouldn't you? considering you may be getting 1.80 - 2.00 per win.

in the past i've found trying to pick the run lines to be a solid plan, so long as you can break down the games in detail... which can be time consuming without the right tool (batting form, starter form, bullpen form, home vs away... yeah, I did it once)

 

[twarby]

in handicapped markets you'd want to be around that mark to make it worthwhile wouldn't you? considering you may be getting 1.80 - 2.00 per win.

1.80 55.6%
1.81 55.4%
1.81 55.2%
1.82 55.0%
1.83 54.8%
1.83 54.5%
1.84 54.3%
1.85 54.1%
1.85 53.9%
1.86 53.7%
1.87 53.5%
1.88 53.3%
1.88 53.1%
1.89 52.8%
1.90 52.6%
1.91 52.4%
1.92 52.2%
1.93 51.9%
1.93 51.7%
1.94 51.5%
1.95 51.2%


there's your breakevens for the odds, i am pretty sure 60% is not possible in MLB unless you are only betting very few plays per week/fortnight even then i doubt its possible

if you actually think you could hit 60% i would quit your job and bet sports full time

 

[Cruiser23]

Start off on here today...

Units scale from 1-5, 5 being the strongest play.

4/5

4 Units Cincinnati -1.5 over Houston @ $2.18 (Sportsbet)
3.5 Units NY Yankees -1.5 over Detroit @ $2.00 (IASbet)
3.5 Units Tampa Bay over Toronto @ $1.57 (IASbet)
3 Units Colorado over Arizona @ $1.80 (Sportingbet)
2.5 Units Oakland over Cleveland @ $1.78 (Sportingbet)