Prediction The 2015 Prediction thread

[Art Vandelay_]

7-3 for mine. Syd, Haw and WCE losses.

 

[Stan The Caddy]

They are behind Duncan imo , but those three are the at the sharp end of our youth . We need at least another 4 or more to get to level of Caddy and Guthrie now. Can find that from Cowan , Blease , GHS, Thurlow , Hartman , Jansen , Lang and Cockatoo become that in 2015. Its possible...just not obviously probable

Yeah I agree they are behind Duncan, I just didn't include him because I think that he's already established himself as an A grader whilst the other 2 are yet to do so but are more than capable imo.

4 more? Well if I were to guess who those 4 would be I reckon H-S, Murdoch, Blicavs and Smedts would be my picks along with Lang as a smokey.

 

[Turbocat]

(1) Hawthorn - Premiers - they will be talking about the 4 peat-this time next year

(2) Fremantle - i think they will win plenty of home and away games - maybe even minor premiers

(3) Port -lot of expectation - only team who i think can defeat Hawks in GF

(4) Adelaide - i think the Crows are going to have a massive year - im convinced Sanderson had no idea - heard him last year say that G Ablett Snr was " misunderstood" - anyone who says that is a 1st class Dill

(5) Gold Coast - i think Rocket - will have the Suns rocketing up the ladder

(6) Sydney - that was a disgraceful performance in the GF - not dissimilar to Geelongs diabolical performance in 95GF - if i was a Bookie - i would confidently lay the Swans for plenty - not to win the flag

(7) Geelong - not sounding like a winger - but that is a tough tough draw - for a team who was bundled out in straight sets - but home games at KP against the easy kills - will mean finals for the 11th time in the last 12 years

(8) Collingwood - looked like finishing 4th there for a while last year - until absolutely decimated by injuries- should be thereabouts again

Other notable points - Nth Melb - what an overhyped mob of plodders- wont make the 8 - theres more chance of Donald Campbell breaking the land speed record - or Harold Holt running laps at Portsea beach - than Nth Melb winning the Premiership

Richmond will sack Hardwick ( who has done a reasonable job - a Rod Olsen type job) but they need a smarter type coach to take the next step

StKilda will finish last - trading players like McEvoy and Stanley who theve developed and are at a prime age - is Crazy - 0-22 for the Aints

Boy I hope you are really wrong.

 

[you pick one]

Boy I hope you are really wrong.

So do I but they will put Dangerfield in the piss and poo colours at the end of the year and tee off again.

 

[Teriyakicat]

1. Port Adelaide (Premiers)
2. Sydney
3. Hawthorn
4. North Melbourne
5. Geelong
6. Fremantle
7. Gold Coast
8. Adelaide

Smokie for 8 - GWS

9. Richmond

Brownlow Medal - Nathan Fyfe
Coleman Medal - Lance Franklin or Tom Hawkins
Rising Star - Jarrad Jansen or Angus Brayshaw

I'm not 'liking' that for the Brownlow tip or one of the two Coleman medallist predictions- and I think you have lost your positivity when it comes to placing Geelong in their 'rightful' place...
but I really liked where you've put those Tigers, Daniel!

 

[vinum coupe]

These threads would be useful if someone bothered to bring them up 12 months later.
No one does.

All I remember is YPO and 12th from last year.

 

[year of the cat]

In no particular order I reckon we'll be behind Hawthorn, Port Adel, Sydney, North, Gold Coast and Freo. I reckon we'll be fighting with the likes of Adelaide, Richmond, Essendon and the Bulldogs for the last 2 spots in the eight.

Hate to be pessimistic but I can easily see us slipping out of the eight and probably will if we have a poor year with injuries.

 

[Turbocat]

Thought I add a pole for our finish position , please contribute.

 

[Vdubs]

1. Swans
2. Port Power
3. Hawthorn
4. Fremantle
5. Gold Coast
6. Adelaide
7. Geelong
8. North

Last: St Kilda
Brisbane to miss out on 8 by small %

You are really trying to P... off the Port fans
- not by selecting Swans
- but, wow, do some of them have a thing about "Power"

 

[you pick one]

These threads would be useful if someone bothered to bring them up 12 months later.
No one does.

All I remember is YPO and 12th from last year.

There must be a thread very similar to this floating around not to long back I remember abstaining in it and sighting that as the very reason,no credibility at all after that.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Firstly, I just received a membership in the mail for 2015 that I've not yet purchased...interesting.

I think our first 4 games are the most important. We have a tough opening to the season, but 3 of our first 4 are at home. Win 3 or even all 4 and it puts us on the front foot and gives us momentum...I think it's likely given our track record at home. Realistically, we should be at least 5-1 after 6 rounds.

With the way we're focusing on our fitness, (which was the problem last year) my expectation and belief is that we'll again finish in the top 4 and challenge for the flag.

1. Port Adelaide
2. Hawthorn
3. Geelong
4. Sydney

The rest don't matter.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Firstly, I just received a membership in the mail for 2015 that I've not yet purchased...interesting.

Same. Not happy as I've received my card already and I was planning on altering my membership.

 

[Reg Hickey]

Anyone but Hawthorn ... please ...

 

[Goggin Our Best]

Anyone but Hawthorn ... please ...

But who can actually beat them - apart from Pt Adelaide

They own Collingwood - theve owned ( and flogged) Carlton and Essendon for a decade - Fremantle cant put a glove on them

The only team that could handle them were Geelong - with the proof in the pudding being the 11 in a row - but the Cats aernt the team they once were - because of father time etc

Apart from the Cats - Richmond fluked 2 wins against them in the wet - and thats about it

With the restricted draft - ( because of the 2 new expansion clubs) and free agency - the Hawks have just got better and better - unfortunately - and unless Port produce - who else are going to beat them

 

[Vdubs]

Firstly, I just received a membership in the mail for 2015 that I've not yet purchased...interesting.

I think our first 4 games are the most important. We have a tough opening to the season, but 3 of our first 4 are at home. Win 3 or even all 4 and it puts us on the front foot and gives us momentum...I think it's likely given our track record at home. Realistically, we should be at least 5-1 after 6 rounds.

With the way we're focusing on our fitness, (which was the problem last year) my expectation and belief is that we'll again finish in the top 4 and challenge for the flag.

1. Port Adelaide
2. Hawthorn
3. Geelong
4. Sydney

The rest don't matter.

Have you gone onto a direct debiting membership but forgotten about it?
We have. Automatic renewals.

 

[Vdubs]

But who can actually beat them - apart from Pt Adelaide

They own Collingwood - theve owned ( and flogged) Carlton and Essendon for a decade - Fremantle cant put a glove on them

The only team that could handle them were Geelong - with the proof in the pudding being the 11 in a row - but the Cats aernt the team they once were - because of father time etc

Apart from the Cats - Richmond fluked 2 wins against them in the wet - and thats about it

With the restricted draft - ( because of the 2 new expansion clubs) and free agency - the Hawks have just got better and better - unfortunately - and unless Port produce - who else are going to beat them

NM?
I agree though, the 3-peat looks the likely result to me. Swans Haw GF, same result, different margin.

 

[Teriyakicat]

Have you gone onto a direct debiting membership but forgotten about it?
We have. Automatic renewals.

I have a feeling that we couldn't opt out of automatic renewals last year, Vdubs. You're right!
Damn! I guess mine's in the mail as well, then

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Have you gone onto a direct debiting membership but forgotten about it?
We have. Automatic renewals.

I was on direct debit this year, but I assumed it was only for 1 season.

 

[Vdubs]

I was on direct debit this year, but I assumed it was only for 1 season.

They might have got you too!
They must assume that unless we request otherwise, we are on DD ad infinitum. Guaranteed memberships I guess from their POV.
To be fair, I do recall getting an email about confirming that we were about to be DD again, I'm talking our 2 memberships at home.

 

[SleazySimon]

What a depressing read this all is.
1. Sydney: they will be hurting and want redeption after last year. Kurt Tippett will finally improve.
2. Hawthorn: Look they probably will do '3 peat' but I'm just too depressed to even think about that right now. Mitchell and Lewis will be another year older though. Every team will look to copy them.
3. Port: most improved side will keep improving. Top 4 will be close IMO
4. Freo: will stay the same. Pav will slow down. We've seen the best Lyon has to offer.
5. North: will be decent for now with the new guys they've added but still lack consistency. Backline still shiite and not settled.
6. Collingwood: Bucks will improve as a coach although he will still be crap.
7. Geelong/us: I honestly find us harder to predict than other years. Will run out games better but Scott and the MC will continue to select the ageing vets and hold back on development in order to win as many early games as possible.
GC: the most overhyped team. Are nothing without Ablett. Have about 8-10 top/potential top liners but the list falls away dramatically after that. Everyone likes to hype them up but are incapable of having an honest in depth discussion over their entire list - not just mention the few big names.

 

[Moneypenny]

Voted 4 as in "at least 4th or above"

Why?
A) gut instinct
B) 4th is usually a bit better than the rest of the ladder but for whatever reason (deficiencies, youth/age, injuries, weird compatibility with teams) just a bit off the pace with the likely winners. Sounds like Geelong, right?
C) we seem to have a pattern of off year/ on year going. 2015 is technically an on year, so I am irrationally reassured by that pattern.
D) I hope and pray that the team is burning for a chance to rectify poor performance this year in the finals. There has to be someone with the ability to "maintain the rage", as Shaun Micallef would say (Cadds, you're my only hope!).

The other teams:
I think Port won't miss a step, Kenny knows what he's doing.
Crossing fingers for a Hawks 2009 hangover year but I'm not holding my breathe.
Sydney are going for the 'too big to fail' model as seen in US economics and the Titanic. We'll see how that goes.
- raffle off the places between that group 1-3.

Others/pests/5-8
More reassured that Freo will fall of the pace a bit more. North may replace them as the irritatingly good team that bloody keep winning, if they stop being so North-like.
Always a surprise team right? I wonder what GC will do. Brisbane will either emerge like a Phoenix or be disappointly average yet again.
The others - yawn. Essendon, Richmond, Collingwood and Carlton will continue to beat each other while staying vaguely relevant.

It's going to look really great if I'm completely wrong. But Uuhhhh it's too hard. Practice matches are miles away!

 

[Vdubs]

One team that is really hard to gauge for me is Essendon. Without Ryder, perhaps a huge loss, but their fans seem to rate his replacement Giles, and they have a great goal to goal line, excellent mids, Cooney if fit will be a bonus. I'm expecting them to push top 4; hope for them, no more interruptions investigation-wise.

But really at this stage, all teams have some hope of improvement and the ??? about them, including Geelong- we must be a pain of a team for non Geelong and Geelong fans to assess.
As always, we predict next year will be the most even season yet.
No point at all for me making any predictions abput our fate- I really want to see whether Simpson has any future with us, and HMc too. If they are both cooked as many predict here, I do think that limits our potency. The last time we beat ?Hawthorn, and NM, DS played. Maybe not really well, but he is a huge obstacle for opposition planning.

I expect Joe Daniher to be the next big thing in 2015 and beyond,; for those who recall Paul Salmon when he emerged, JD reminds me a lot of him. Enough about Essendon, but this is about some predictions.

 

[ButterMill]

Love to speculate.

Teams that go up:

Adelaide
- That team has a good a young mids as any
- A big forward
- Solid young back line
- A coach that will whip them into shape
Fly in ointment:
- Dangerfield speculation in a team that already had player issues
Likely finish:
- 6-8

Port
- Could be top 2
- Hinkley love is real and justified
- Almost beat Hawthorn, and list only gets better and one year older
Fly in ointment:
- Ruckman depth
Likely finish:
- 1-2

Brisbane
- They overtake eagles, GC, Bullies
- At best finish 8th
Fly in ointment:
- Losing any bigger forward
Likely finish:
- 11-8

Carlton:
- I trust Malthouse far too much
Fly in ointment:
- Their list is as rubbish as it look
Likely finish:
- Last or 9th.

Who goes down:

Hawthorn
- Will contend finals, but won't be top 2, very marginal drop off
- Best coached team in the AFL
- Best managed club off the field
- Top three favourites for flag
Fly in the ointment:
- Old gets older, Sam Mitchell, Hodge and Burgoyne go down before finals.
Likely finish:
- 5-3

Geelong
- Requires far too much luck with injury
- Rucks, make or break us. Don't need to win taps necessarily but can't get smashed in the tap and can't get hurt when the opposition ruck pushes forward. Dawson Simpson most important player this year for mine
- If all goes horribly badly we lose next year Mackie, Kelly, Enright, Menzel, Cowan, HMac, Dawson and Vardy
- If all goes well we win the flag
Fly in the ointment:
- Too many injuries, youth doesn't come on
Likely finish:
- 6-10

North
- This is the year
- List topped up, mids at the right point of their development
- But they have never delivered with this list. Almost like they are trying to peer pressure a flag
- End of next year a cull will happen and they'll claim they have a young list again
Fly in ointment:
Lose games early with all the expectation and talk of Scott going will happen by mid year.
Likely finish:
- 7-9

Pies
- Won't make finals
- In a full rebuild now
- Backline is too young, forward line is to much Cloke
- Pendles won't look as smooth after this next season as he gets battered carrying this team
Likely finish
- 14-10

Other notables:

Gold Coast
- Too Ablett centric
- Eade sets an expectation
- Problem wasn't tactical it was youth and more patience required
- Will do much the same this year, win a few good games, but won't make finals

Sydney
- Will finish top 3
- Got manhandled by Hawthorn, next game against them will be physical and Sydney won't lose it
- Could easily win the flag this year
- Backline will be a problem and one they won't be able to fix easily, Reid goes down back.

Bulldogs
- Top three young midfields going around (GWS is number one)
- Bont is the best young player 22 and under for mine
- GWS and bullies game are cracking affairs
Fly in ointment:
- Big men take a few years to come good, Boyd is not going to get $2 million a year and be allowed time to slowly improve by fans.
Likely finish:
- 10-12

West Coast
- Down for at least another year
- Something off at this club, haven't been able to develop their talent
- Whole place looks too complacent
Likely finish:
- 12-16

Brownlow Medal:
Shit award, but likely Fyfe.
Coleman:
Lance Franklin
Rising Star:
Pickett
Flag:
Geelong (our best one yet).

If there is a reward for longest post of crap I'd like to believe I just earned a nomination.

 

[Teriyakicat]

Love to speculate.

Teams that go up:

Adelaide
- That team has a good a young mids as any
- A big forward
- Solid young back line
- A coach that will whip them into shape
Fly in ointment:
- Dangerfield speculation in a team that already had player issues
Likely finish:
- 6-8

Port
- Could be top 2
- Hinkley love is real and justified
- Almost beat Hawthorn, and list only gets better and one year older
Fly in ointment:
- Ruckman depth
Likely finish:
- 1-2

Brisbane
- They overtake eagles, GC, Bullies
- At best finish 8th
Fly in ointment:
- Losing any bigger forward
Likely finish:
- 11-8

Carlton:
- I trust Malthouse far too much
Fly in ointment:
- Their list is as rubbish as it look
Likely finish:
- Last or 9th.

Who goes down:

Hawthorn
- Will contend finals, but won't be top 2, very marginal drop off
- Best coached team in the AFL
- Best managed club off the field
- Top three favourites for flag
Fly in the ointment:
- Old gets older, Sam Mitchell, Hodge and Burgoyne go down before finals.
Likely finish:
- 5-3

Geelong
- Requires far too much luck with injury
- Rucks, make or break us. Don't need to win taps necessarily but can't get smashed in the tap and can't get hurt when the opposition ruck pushes forward. Dawson Simpson most important player this year for mine
- If all goes horribly badly we lose next year Mackie, Kelly, Enright, Menzel, Cowan, HMac, Dawson and Vardy
- If all goes well we win the flag
Fly in the ointment:
- Too many injuries, youth doesn't come on
Likely finish:
- 6-10

North
- This is the year
- List topped up, mids at the right point of their development
- But they have never delivered with this list. Almost like they are trying to peer pressure a flag
- End of next year a cull will happen and they'll claim they have a young list again
Fly in ointment:
Lose games early with all the expectation and talk of Scott going will happen by mid year.
Likely finish:
- 7-9

Pies
- Won't make finals
- In a full rebuild now
- Backline is too young, forward line is to much Cloke
- Pendles won't look as smooth after this next season as he gets battered carrying this team
Likely finish
- 14-10

Other notables:

Gold Coast
- Too Ablett centric
- Eade sets an expectation
- Problem wasn't tactical it was youth and more patience required
- Will do much the same this year, win a few good games, but won't make finals

Sydney
- Will finish top 3
- Got manhandled by Hawthorn, next game against them will be physical and Sydney won't lose it
- Could easily win the flag this year
- Backline will be a problem and one they won't be able to fix easily, Reid goes down back.

Bulldogs
- Top three young midfields going around (GWS is number one)
- Bont is the best young player 22 and under for mine
- GWS and bullies game are cracking affairs
Fly in ointment:
- Big men take a few years to come good, Boyd is not going to get $2 million a year and be allowed time to slowly improve by fans.
Likely finish:
- 10-12

West Coast
- Down for at least another year
- Something off at this club, haven't been able to develop their talent
- Whole place looks too complacent
Likely finish:
- 12-16

Brownlow Medal:
Shit award, but likely Fyfe.
Coleman:
Lance Franklin
Rising Star:
Pickett
Flag:
Geelong (our best one yet).

If there is a reward for longest post of crap I'd like to believe I just earned a nomination.

damn! And I just read- and believed- it all.

 

[Sttew]

But who can actually beat them - apart from Pt Adelaide

Swans - did it in 2012. I know that was a long time ago, but they will be looking for serious returns, i.e., a premiership, after having invested so much dosch in Buddy & Tippett. Swans will also be smarting over their poor showing in the 2014 finals. My tip for premiers