we aren't making finals. Can only afford to lose 2 more games for the whole year if we are to make finals, not happening unfortunately.
I often see this argument these days, that you need 14 games minimum to play finals. I just don't think history supports that position.
In 2015, 13 wins gets you into the 8, regardless of percentage.
In 2014, 12 wins gets you in, regardless of percentage.
In 2013, 11 wins gets you in, regardless of percentage.
In 2011, 11 wins gets you in, regardless of percentage.
In 2010, 11 wins lands you 8th or 9th, depending on percentage.
In 2009, 10 wins gets you in, regardless of percentage...
You get my point. The only season in history where 14 wins was required to make the finals was in 2012, where we had the completely unique occurrence of having two expansion teams and three additional struggling teams who were all so deplorably bad that none won more than 5 games for the year. Five teams on five wins or less propping up the rest of the competition - GWS, Gold Coast, Melbourne, the Bulldogs and Port Adelaide. They were all SO bad that they artificially inflated the wins column for the remaining thirteen teams.
In almost every other year in history, 13 wins will get you into the 8 regardless of percentage. Usually, 12 is enough. Often, 11 will do the job, and in rare circumstances, 10 wins will sneak you in.
Ultimately, history says that we could drop four more games this season and still be a good chance at playing finals. Unfortunately, I think you're right in saying we won't see September - I don't think that we'll be able to knock up even 12 wins given our horrid start and even worse injury luck.