List Mgmt. The 2016 rebuild

[Snake_Baker]

As we know, a terrible run of injuries in 2016 brought our momentum to a halt and ushered in a radical list change in order to revitalize our push for the next premiership.

The club went out and had a crack at some top line players (Martin, De Goey, Gaff etc.), but fell short, and while this is disappointing I am not critical with the club because of those outcomes. They gave it all, but at the end of the day if a player decides to stay, then there's nothing more we can do about it. Now 3 seasons have passed and it's time to look at what has occurred in the intervening period and where we stand in regards to the next push by focusing on the players still present on the list.

Where are we going to be in ANOTHER 2 years time in regards to the changes made in 2016?

2016

Trades: Marley Williams, Paul Ahern
Draft: Jy Simpkin, Nick Larkey, Cam Zurhaar

Williams has been a brilliant trade and looks set to be a quality small defender for at least another 100+ games.
Larkey has had an extremely promising start to his KPF career (200+ games left).
Zurhaar has surprised many with his rapid climb to be amongst the best mid sized forward prospects in the AFL (200+ games left).

2017

Trades: Nil
Draft: Luke Davies-Uniake, Will Walker, Kyron Hayden, Tristan Xerri

2018

Trades: Jarred Polec, Jasper Pittard, Dom Tyson, Aaron Hall
Draft: Tarryn Thomas, Curtis Taylor, Bailey Scott, Joel Crocker

Polec delivered what was expected, and finished out his 1st season at the club in close to career best form. A BIG plus (120+ games left).
Pittard defied all of the (many) skeptics as a mid sized defender and played close to career best footy (~ 100 games left)

2019

Trades: Aiden Bonar
Draft: Lachlan Hosie, ???????

THE WASHUP

Whilst we can be pleased with the progression of Williams, Larkey, Zurhaar, Polec and Pittard, the damning statistic that jumps off the page is that only one of them is classified as a midfielder.

The MIDFIELDERS are the crucial factor.

Cunnington has been a warrior but gets isolated by taggers at the moment due to a lack of alternatives in the midfield who can take focus away from opposition strategists. Higgins has been magnificent but is approaching 2020 as a 32 year old, and Ziebell is primarily a utility that takes away from the teams strengths around the ground when he gets thrust in to the middle to halt the bleeding. Of course, our situation has been further compounded with the ongoing injury to Jacobs.

I have highlighted the one midfielder who has stepped up (blue) since our rebuild of 2016 was undertaken, and the midfielder/quasi-midfielders which haven't stepped up yet due to age/development or injury (red), and it is this group who I believe are absolutely crucial for the club going forward from this point.



2020 expectations

Simpkin: Just has to step up and show consistency, no more excuses from now on. Hot & cold. Must deliver in 2020. No more teasing Jy.

Ahern: Had his initial injury setbacks, but has had some reasonable continuity since debuting for North. Pace & endurance are real issues and he needs to find more defensive intensity. Must deliver in 2020. No more teasing Paul.

Davies-Uniake: Is a type that was always going to take some time in my opinion. Showing enough to suggest he will be a magnificent long term return. I expect 14 games, 15 disposals, 2.4 clearances and 2.1 tackles in 2019, to lift to 22+ games, 20+ disposals, 4 clearances, 4 tackles, and 1 goal in 2020.

Walker: I have him in my "quasi" mids category, as a winger/high half forward. All going well I would like to see 10+ AFL games @ ~15 disposals, 2-3 tackles and 1.5 goals in 2020.

Hayden: How unlucky is this bloke? Worked his guts out to get a crack, has a very promising start on debut, and then does an achilles. Ben Jacobs heir apparent. If he can get back to the AFL by round 12-15, keep his spot and shut down an opponent, then that will be a satisfactory 2020 outcome.

Tyson: I rate Dom as a bloke who can definitely hold a spot in the midfield rotations and allow Cunnington, LDU & JZ to slip forward. If he can get a good run with injury, I would set the 2020 bar for him at 22-25 disposals, 4-5 clearances and 4-5 tackles.

Hall: Actually the type of player we need to step up the most. Just has to get on the park and get us some meterage. I'd want 22+ games @ 25 disposals, 5-6 inside 50's and 500+ metres a game from Aaron.

Thomas: Another of my quasi-mid bracket, I would expect TT to have more midfield minutes in 2020. If he can raise his stat output to 18+ disposals, ~4 marks, 4-5 tackles, 2.5 clearances and return 25+ goals, then he will have had a satisfactory season.

Scott: Like Hall, Bailey is also the type we need to step up the most going forward, but he has a lack of age and size on his side. His 2019 DE% of 85% is EXACTLY what the doctor ordered for the North midfield. If he can play 22+ games @ ~20 disposals, 3 tackles, 3 inside 50's and 350+ metres whilst maintaining that DE%, then he will have had an excellent 2020.

Bonar: Has had an uninterrupted injury run for a while and showed glimpses at AFL level despite not being able to break in to the elite GWS midfield. I see no reason why we should not expect a similiar output from Aiden as we expect for another class draftee form his same year in LDU (22+ games, 20+ disposals, 4 clearances, 4 tackles, and 1 goal in 2020).

If this group can step up in 2020 then we WILL be playing finals.

If they tread water, then we won't.

If they're still treading water at the end of 2021, then we are in a world of s**t.

BIG year coming up for North in 2020.

 

[KiwiRoo]

good analysis Snake.Much better than the "north have no youth" type crap we normally see. Plenty to like going into 2020.
Simpkin is the key for me. his consistency has improved and just so many tools at his disposal. If he takes that next step and theres no reason he cant, we'll be a much improved side

 

[Snake_Baker]

good analysis Snake.Much better than the "north have no youth" type crap we normally see. Plenty to like going into 2020.
Simpkin is the key for me. his consistency has improved and just so many tools at his disposal. If he takes that next step and theres no reason he cant, we'll be a much improved side

Cheers KW.

The situation generally tends to get over-hyped both optimistically and pessimistically.

What I can draw from that timeline is if 2019 was the year Larkey & Zurhaar arrived, then 2020 should be the year LDU & Bonar arrive.

On the flip side, the Simpkin bus is running a little late.

Xerri also needs to start grabbing VFL games by the throat and press for an AFL debut.

Jacobs, Hall and Tyson just have to get on the park also, and start giving us something.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Still too many unknowns in that lot and To me their is no one with genuine super star potential. I hold hope that LDU might become that but he has a long long way to go. Zurhaar will be a gun but it will be mainly inside forward 50.

The other issue there is that there aren’t too many genuine two way midfielders coming through. We desperately need to target more mids this draft and less flankers

 

[KiwiRoo]

Cheers KW.

The situation generally tends to get over-hyped both optimistically and pessimistically.

What I can draw from that timeline is if 2019 was the year Larkey & Zurhaar arrived, then 2020 should be the year LDU & Bonar arrive.

On the flip side, the Simpkin bus is running a little late.

Xerri also needs to start grabbing VFL games by the throat and press for an AFL debut.

Jacobs, Hall and Tyson just have to get on the park also, and start giving us something.

yeah I think Simpkins lateness has a bit to do with starting his career in a midfield light on talent. its all hypothetical, but if he was running round with Geelong, West coast or Geelong then he'd be name mentioned more often

 

[Passmore]

I'm optimistic about Jy.

He's exhibited the capability to get it 30+ times a game. He needs to cut out those 10 possession games. Ben went through that for the first 3 years of his career. It look him late into year 4 to really establish himself. Simmo was the same. I see Jy on a similar trajectory.

LDU and Thomas are the 2 with real superstar ceiling. Ahern is untapped, but it's time now.

Bonar is going to be an interesting watch in 2020. Same with Walker.

Bailey seems like the kid you can just take to the bank to realise hus potential.

Sent from my SM-G900I using Tapatalk

 

[DrZaius]

I actually reckon Simpkins development is well on track for his age. He just finished his 3rd season and this year averaged 18.6 disposals, 3.6 tackles, 3.7 clearances - as well as a few monster games (33 disposals 6 marks 5 tackles & a goal in the port game the standout for mine).
Expect he will be more consistent next season.

 

[Snake_Baker]

I actually reckon Simpkins development is well on track for his age. He just finished his 3rd season and this year averaged 18.6 disposals, 3.6 tackles, 3.7 clearances - as well as a few monster games (33 disposals 6 marks 5 tackles & a goal in the port game the standout for mine).
Expect he will be more consistent next season.

As Passmore pointed out, it's the wild form swings which are a concern.

Consistency must be his mantra in 2020.

 

[Thewlis Dish]

I'm always a litte confused when people point to LDU being behind in his development.

I would take a guy with his elite attributes who takes a little longer to get up to AFL standard physically than the guy who hits the ground running, but lacks genuinely elite tricks. He's 20 ffs!

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Hall is the biggest question mark for me.

He has all the characteristics and attributes that we need in our best 22z I really hope he gets his head right and Shaw can bring the best out of him.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Hall is the biggest question mark for me.

He has all the characteristics and attributes that we need in our best 22z I really hope he gets his head right and Shaw can bring the best out of him.

He's important, no doubt about it.

His best footy improves us by 3-4 goals.

 

[muttley45]

Pretty tough for Xerri to get a senior game atm, with Goldy's return to form, and Brown/Larkey the preferable KPF combo, but I agree, he should be given a taste this coming season. One stat. I would like to see an across the board increase in is metres gained (whether by run and carry, or accurate kicking to advantage). With the available personnel, starting centre square midfielder attendees should also be rotated regularly to avoid predictability and staleness.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Pretty tough for Xerri to get a senior game atm, with Goldy's return to form, and Brown/Larkey the preferable KPF combo, but I agree, he should be given a taste this coming season. One stat. I would like to see an across the board increase in is metres gained (whether by run and carry, or accurate kicking to advantage). With the available personnel, starting centre square midfielder attendees should also be rotated regularly to avoid predictability and staleness.

Needs to step up in the VFL now mate. Doesn't need to necessarily debut in the AFL, as there's other forces at play, but he needs to rap on the door. LOUDLY.

Showed spurts last year, but has to step up and grab some VFL games by the throat.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

He's important, no doubt about it.

His best footy improves us by 3-4 goals.

I don’t want to see him anywhere near a wing, I really want him and Higgins rotating with one another across half forward.

Hall was given no centre square time last year and it is well and truly where he plays his best footy.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

I also think we are still desperate to find an elite game breaking distributor off half back. So much attack comes from that area in the modern game but we still don’t have a player who can accumulate the football and distribute in an elite manner. I really like the idea of Ahern playing there but there is the obvious concerns about his defensive application.

McDonald could be the one but he had always struggled to find the footy consistently and his disposal hasn’t developed since being in an AFL system.

Atley still has too many deer in headlight moments.

 

[Snake_Baker]

We need to look at the established defenders according to how they show up under Rhyce.

I don't believe they are the major stumbling block for our improvement. In fact, I reckon they do pretty well all things considered.

Sure, it would be nice to have a deft kicker flowing off half back and cutting up the opposition on the rebound, but our defenders are usually on the back foot due to the ball coming in from the opposition midfielders.

 

[Gasometer]

Meh Jy
It’s between his ears that matters

 

[roos_fanatic08]

We need to look at the established defenders according to how they show up under Rhyce.

I don't believe they are the major stumbling block for our improvement. In fact, I reckon they do pretty well all things considered.

Sure, it would be nice to have a deft kicker flowing off half back and cutting up the opposition on the rebound, but our defenders are usually on the back foot due to the ball coming in from the opposition midfielders.

No doubt the backs have been under pressure. To me though a distributing half back is still a pressing need. We cause a lot of turnovers across half back because of over posession because the likes of Atley, McDonald and McMillan don’t have the vision or skill to hit up the shorter targets on offer. It’s always either over-posess by hand or kick long down the line to Brown.

The midfield defensive transition is a big reason why I’ve been so adamant that we can’t play Ziebell and Cunners in the midfield at the same time because their defensive transition is so poor. Higgins too often pays no respect to his direct opponent either. Too often Dumont and Polec have to bust their gut to cover opposition when they win clearances.

It’s all good when we are winning it at the coal face, but even that hasn’t been a big strength in recent years.

 

[shintemaster]

I don’t want to see him anywhere near a wing, I really want him and Higgins rotating with one another across half forward.

Hall was given no centre square time last year and it is well and truly where he plays his best footy.

Yep. His type is exactly what we need rotating through the square.

 

[Shagga is all Class]

Personally, I think the coaching panel and club in general are the ones that need to step up.

Every opportunity must be given to the aforementioned Simpkin, Ahern, LDU, Zurhaar, TT and Larkey at the risk of bad losses.

These are the ones capable of monster games and breakout seasons that the opposition will not see coming.

if the coaches revert like our previous regime did and expect all the heavy lifting to be done by Cunners, Higgins, Ziebell and Brown then the opposition coaches will just sit on them and it will be more of the same.

Personally, I do not want to watch games of football where Cunners hs a a saddle on his back and Brown has 3 guys on him (like down in Geelong or in WCE land).

 

[Tectonic]

Our defenders are usually on the back foot due to the ball coming in from the opposition midfielders.

Definitely this, im not smart enough to know -what- we need to do different but our propensity to lose midfield ascendancy very quickly, and get hammered on repeat entries needs to be worked on, wether that be via mids working harder to get advantageous space, defenders holding for the least wrong option or recognising when the plan™ has gone to s**t and having a readily available alternative to regain momentum, it really is a critical aspect of NM footy that needs fixing.
Center square variety and being more flexible at boundary throw ins would be a good start

 

[Merlin007]

As we know, a terrible run of injuries in 2016 brought our momentum to a halt and ushered in a radical list change in order to revitalize our push for the next premiership.

The club went out and had a crack at some top line players (Martin, De Goey, Gaff etc.), but fell short, and while this is disappointing I am not critical with the club because of those outcomes. They gave it all, but at the end of the day if a player decides to stay, then there's nothing more we can do about it. Now 3 seasons have passed and it's time to look at what has occurred in the intervening period and where we stand in regards to the next push by focusing on the players still present on the list.

Where are we going to be in ANOTHER 2 years time in regards to the changes made in 2016?

2016

Trades: Marley Williams, Paul Ahern
Draft: Jy Simpkin, Nick Larkey, Cam Zurhaar

Williams has been a brilliant trade and looks set to be a quality small defender for at least another 100+ games.
Larkey has had an extremely promising start to his KPF career (200+ games left).
Zurhaar has surprised many with his rapid climb to be amongst the best mid sized forward prospects in the AFL (200+ games left).

2017

Trades: Nil
Draft: Luke Davies-Uniake, Will Walker, Kyron Hayden, Tristan Xerri

2018

Trades: Jarred Polec, Jasper Pittard, Dom Tyson, Aaron Hall
Draft: Tarryn Thomas, Curtis Taylor, Bailey Scott, Joel Crocker

Polec delivered what was expected, and finished out his 1st season at the club in close to career best form. A BIG plus (120+ games left).
Pittard defied all of the (many) skeptics as a mid sized defender and played close to career best footy (~ 100 games left)

2019

Trades: Aiden Bonar
Draft: Lachlan Hosie, ???????

THE WASHUP

Whilst we can be pleased with the progression of Williams, Larkey, Zurhaar, Polec and Pittard, the damning statistic that jumps off the page is that only one of them is classified as a midfielder.

The MIDFIELDERS are the crucial factor.

Cunnington has been a warrior but gets isolated by taggers at the moment due to a lack of alternatives in the midfield who can take focus away from opposition strategists. Higgins has been magnificent but is approaching 2020 as a 32 year old, and Ziebell is primarily a utility that takes away from the teams strengths around the ground when he gets thrust in to the middle to halt the bleeding. Of course, our situation has been further compounded with the ongoing injury to Jacobs.

I have highlighted the one midfielder who has stepped up (blue) since our rebuild of 2016 was undertaken, and the midfielder/quasi-midfielders which haven't stepped up yet due to age/development or injury (red), and it is this group who I believe are absolutely crucial for the club going forward from this point.



2020 expectations

Simpkin: Just has to step up and show consistency, no more excuses from now on. Hot & cold. Must deliver in 2020. No more teasing Jy.

Ahern: Had his initial injury setbacks, but has had some reasonable continuity since debuting for North. Pace & endurance are real issues and he needs to find more defensive intensity. Must deliver in 2020. No more teasing Paul.

Davies-Uniake: Is a type that was always going to take some time in my opinion. Showing enough to suggest he will be a magnificent long term return. I expect 14 games, 15 disposals, 2.4 clearances and 2.1 tackles in 2019, to lift to 22+ games, 20+ disposals, 4 clearances, 4 tackles, and 1 goal in 2020.

Walker: I have him in my "quasi" mids category, as a winger/high half forward. All going well I would like to see 10+ AFL games @ ~15 disposals, 2-3 tackles and 1.5 goals in 2020.

Hayden: How unlucky is this bloke? Worked his guts out to get a crack, has a very promising start on debut, and then does an achilles. Ben Jacobs heir apparent. If he can get back to the AFL by round 12-15, keep his spot and shut down an opponent, then that will be a satisfactory 2020 outcome.

Tyson: I rate Dom as a bloke who can definitely hold a spot in the midfield rotations and allow Cunnington, LDU & JZ to slip forward. If he can get a good run with injury, I would set the 2020 bar for him at 22-25 disposals, 4-5 clearances and 4-5 tackles.

Hall: Actually the type of player we need to step up the most. Just has to get on the park and get us some meterage. I'd want 22+ games @ 25 disposals, 5-6 inside 50's and 500+ metres a game from Aaron.

Thomas: Another of my quasi-mid bracket, I would expect TT to have more midfield minutes in 2020. If he can raise his stat output to 18+ disposals, ~4 marks, 4-5 tackles, 2.5 clearances and return 25+ goals, then he will have had a satisfactory season.

Scott: Like Hall, Bailey is also the type we need to step up the most going forward, but he has a lack of age and size on his side. His 2019 DE% of 85% is EXACTLY what the doctor ordered for the North midfield. If he can play 22+ games @ ~20 disposals, 3 tackles, 3 inside 50's and 350+ metres whilst maintaining that DE%, then he will have had an excellent 2020.

Bonar: Has had an uninterrupted injury run for a while and showed glimpses at AFL level despite not being able to break in to the elite GWS midfield. I see no reason why we should not expect a similiar output from Aiden as we expect for another class draftee form his same year in LDU (22+ games, 20+ disposals, 4 clearances, 4 tackles, and 1 goal in 2020).

If this group can step up in 2020 then we WILL be playing finals.

If they tread water, then we won't.

If they're still treading water at the end of 2021, then we are in a world of s**t.

BIG year coming up for North in 2020.

yep, sums it up pretty well, good job

 

[ferball]

yeah I think Simpkins lateness has a bit to do with starting his career in a midfield light on talent. its all hypothetical, but if he was running round with Geelong, West coast or Geelong then he'd be name mentioned more often

Broken leg in his draft year as well.

 

[ferball]

Still too many unknowns in that lot and To me their is no one with genuine super star potential. I hold hope that LDU might become that but he has a long long way to go. Zurhaar will be a gun but it will be mainly inside forward 50.

The other issue there is that there aren’t too many genuine two way midfielders coming through. We desperately need to target more mids this draft and less flankers

I agree about the unknowns ... it essentially applies to alot of our younger players.

I think LDU and Thomas both have "superstar potential". If De Goey is a superstar then Zurhaar can be one I spose. And if JY hits some consistent form then he could be amazing.

I think Hall genuinely has it if he goes hard. I'd also like to see him in the centre square a bit because we seem so slow in there so often. For so long we've seemed genuinely incapable of regularly threatening goals on the burst from a CC contest. Not once or twice every couple of games but 3 a quarter. Something the opposition have to be scared of and plan for. But I think its all upstairs with him, not just in terms of his recent issues but across his whole game. he needs to be focused, disciplined and aggressive when he plays. Not necessarily aggressively physical (tho that would be good, especially defensively) but in terms of attacking the ball and the contest and using his speed and boot as a weapon.

 

[ferball]

Ahern is a big one. I expected alot more of him this year. Not so much based on JLT form, didn't see the JLT games. But just on general expectation.

He could be a weapon - his ability to sum a situation up and deliver is really good. He has awareness, vision and skill.