List Mgmt. The 2018 Draft & Trade Hypotheticals Thread

Remove this Banner Ad

Status
Not open for further replies.
Aug 9, 2016
4,377
5,573
AFL Club
Sydney
If any club offered 5 picks in the 3rd, 4th and 5th round for a #1-3 pick, they would be laughed out of the room.

I'll play devils advocate here. You are effectively saying that highly talented prospects are worth thirty times a rookie being someone at cusp of main draft. That's the point system. Yet our starting line up is littered with rookies. Does that not say that development and coaching are more important to creation of a top line afl player? Either that or the fact that development per se is unequal in the timeline it manifests? And if those statements are true then are we star gazing when so much value is placed on a youth who initially shows more aptitude?

Something doesn't reconcile yet people are adament of the correctness of that approach and that value. I know I'm out of step and that may mean I simply don't understand but there seems to be an anomaly in methodology. The outcomes don't support the theory
 
Yeah I get that is consensus but is it reflection of value.? 5 chances to become a success seem better odds than one even if the guy shows massive promise. They are after all only 18. You seem to think so so I sway to your judgement but every time it comes up I think mmmmmm really? lol


So I take it then your philosophy if Blakey came out number five pick that we should sacrifice 4 later picks to get him? Then what? Top up in the rookie draft to replace our needs? Bearing in mind that they don't let you load picks beyond your need to draft.
I'll play devils advocate here. You are effectively saying that highly talented prospects are worth thirty times a rookie being someone at cusp of main draft. That's the point system. Yet our starting line up is littered with rookies. Does that not say that development and coaching are more important to creation of a top line afl player? Either that or the fact that development per se is unequal in the timeline it manifests? And if those statements are true then are we star gazing when so much value is placed on a youth who initially shows more aptitude?

Something doesn't reconcile yet people are adament of the correctness of that approach and that value. I know I'm out of step and that may mean I simply don't understand but there seems to be an anomaly in methodology. The outcomes don't support the theory
I have written quite a lengthy piece on this previously. The short answer is that yes, 10x late draft players will play more games than a #1 pick, but you have limited list spots and the top draft prospect is a far higher strike rate than the lower ones.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/list-management-101.1114741/page-2#post-42060336
 
Oct 2, 2016
10,819
22,357
AFL Club
Sydney
Out of curiosity I ran through our list from the Geelong finals game last year. Out of the 22 players we drafted 19 (Sinclair, Kennedy & Franklin being the trades). Of those remaining nine of them were rookie picks (Jack, Lloyd, Naismith, Newman, Papley, Cunningham, Grundy, Rampe, Smith). Of those remaining 10 players six of them were first round picks (Heeney, Towers, McVeigh, Jones, Mills, Rohan) meaning only 4 players from our best 22 were picked between the first round and rookie. Going by how the Swans draft players I'm more than happy to put all into a first round pick and then focus the remaining picks on rookies.
 

Log in to remove this ad.

Aug 9, 2016
4,377
5,573
AFL Club
Sydney
I have written quite a lengthy piece on this previously. The short answer is that yes, 10x late draft players will play more games than a #1 pick, but you have limited list spots and the top draft prospect is a far higher strike rate than the lower ones.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/list-management-101.1114741/page-2#post-42060336

My analytical mind responds to that sort of analysis. Brilliant to be honest. I seriously hope you have input to list mgt theory for swans. Will read again to absorb better. Values escalate per principles of supply and demand but don't become too onerous because list number vacancies are always limited. Got it. High turnover sensible to identify and fill spots with those higher success probability. My only question I guess is the psychological effect on existing draftees where they see high volume turnover and cut throat approach to delisting. Some may take time to generate self confidence and belief to step up yet still have massive potential. A classic example of that (though well beyond draftee stage now) is Gary Rohan. His skill set should make him a superstar but it's what's between the ears ie self belief that limits him. At days end you are right .....there isn't a great scope for 'cuddling' people to engender self belief. Comes at an expense- a list spot which as you've so aptly theorised has that inherent value. I buy into your strategy.

Do the swans show they do? I notice that there seems to be more of a shift toward that approach in recent years. List cloggers being delisted quickly. Perhaps that's why despite our impediments - rarely get high picks, trading ban, etc we've still been able to replenish our list to be rated best list in AFL.

Thank you very much mate. Appreciated
 
A classic example of that (though well beyond draftee stage now) is Gary Rohan. His skill set should make him a superstar but it's what's between the ears ie self belief that limits him.
Great response, and I agree with everything you wrote except this. Gary Rohan's skillset has not developed significantly since we drafted him. At the age of 17 he was a fast, flashy, occasional-impact player who averaged 13 disposals per game. Last year at the age of 26 he was a fast, flashy, occasional-impact player who averaged 9.6 disposals per game. His skill set should not and does not make him a superstar, he would need to improve significantly. I'm not sure its all between the ears, he is performing about as well now as he was before he was drafted (when he didn't have the big game pressure he does now).
 
Aug 9, 2016
4,377
5,573
AFL Club
Sydney
One of the disciplines I studied at uni was probability theory. In essence every possible outcome has what is called an expected value based on probability of success. Comparison of expected values reduces decision making to mechanical choice by eliminating subjectivity.its what bookmakers use. Essentially you are using a form of that probability theory to extapolote the efficacy of afl value choices. It's possible dare I say through your analysis and other data verifiable observations to create a software model which picks apart afl values and takes advantage of the flat line later in draft not currently reflected in afl tapering of values. It would be challenging but achievable. You could even adapt it penetrating further based on for example player type- forward, midfield, defender, ruck. Or data on combine attributes. All possible. I know you've covered that elsewhere but you could actually incorporate it into a program. that would be fun eh? Sit there and as the draft unfolds a huge guffaws of laughter erupts at swans table when swans know collingwood have made another stupid decision lol I would like that
 
Last edited:

Tesla Tenet

Premiership Player
Apr 13, 2016
3,052
3,536
AFL Club
Sydney
Would North really want to risk that though. I mean say Blakey is rated as the 12th best player in this years draft, and North pick him with pick 3. If they do, well they are not getting any discount, and they are risking a lot, because if the Swans don't match the bid, then they have lost the chance at a real superstar player.

I don't think North are going to play silly buggers with that pick, because it could easily blow up in their face.
I Father/son 20% discount also applies?

Sent from my SM-G900I using Tapatalk
 

Tesla Tenet

Premiership Player
Apr 13, 2016
3,052
3,536
AFL Club
Sydney
Nope, I think it’s easy to say. Which player should we not have matched a bid for? Heeney? Mills? Regardless, my point re “ruthless” was that we don’t draft players just because they come from the Academy. There have been several years when we’ve drafted nobody at all, not even as Rookies.

Hiscox was a third round pick (38). Hindsight is a wonderful thing but it would have been debatable to classify that as a clear “overs” at the time.
That was our pick 38. Freo used pick 34 for Hiscox and matched and they got connor blakely. Who won that. There was some good players after Hiscox.

Also Abe Davis was also matched.

To me better players were there but needed to show commitment to the Academy.

Sent from my SM-G900I using Tapatalk
 

mark121

Club Legend
Aug 22, 2009
1,106
297
sydney
AFL Club
Sydney
That was our pick 38. Freo used pick 34 for Hiscox and matched and they got connor blakely. Who won that. There was some good players after Hiscox.

Also Abe Davis was also matched.

To me better players were there but needed to show commitment to the Academy.

Sent from my SM-G900I using Tapatalk


Fair enough its always debatable over who is the best player available at each draft pick was. In all liklihood we will never know what our recruiters truely thought.

Looking at the draft after Jack Hiscox was taken and only Caleb Daniel, Braydon Pruess and Adam Saad stand out to me as players I would like to have in my team.

Pruess and Saad were both taken much later in the rookie draft and were never in consideration for our pick 38 and Caleb Daniel would only be a small chance of being our next target.
 

DavyRed

Club Legend
Nov 5, 2009
1,782
2,836
Sydney
AFL Club
Sydney
That was our pick 38. Freo used pick 34 for Hiscox and matched and they got connor blakely. Who won that. There was some good players after Hiscox.

Also Abe Davis was also matched.

To me better players were there but needed to show commitment to the Academy.

Sent from my SM-G900I using Tapatalk
Hiscox was a third round selection. Some you win some you lose when comparing with other players available at that time but hindsight doesn’t confirm Academy preference.

Davis was a fourth round selection so you’re really getting into the tail end there. We had another selection at 79 which we passed on so we hardly went out on a limb with him.

Anyway, I’ll point to the years where we picked absolutely nobody at all from the Academy (like 2016) or just Rookies (like last year) to challenge any notion of a “need to show commitment to the Academy”. I’ll also say that having had two sons go through the Academy I can only repeat what several of the senior Academy coaches told me several times - the recruiting team treat Academy draft prospects in exactly the same way as any other prospects, no preferences are given. I happen to believe them, you may not and that’s fine.
 

brad cooper

Premiership Player
Jul 5, 2014
3,199
5,984
AFL Club
Sydney
That was our pick 38. Freo used pick 34 for Hiscox and matched and they got connor blakely. Who won that. There was some good players after Hiscox.

Also Abe Davis was also matched.

To me better players were there but needed to show commitment to the Academy.

Sent from my SM-G900I using Tapatalk
Who bid on Davis, i thought we just took him with a draft selection.

Just had a look at that draft, easy to say in hindsight, but we really missed by taking Rose and Hiscox.

Mitch McGovern being a notable one that would have slotted into the team nicely.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Kiama Chris

Norm Smith Medallist
May 10, 2016
7,417
16,675
Kiama
AFL Club
Sydney
I have written quite a lengthy piece on this previously. The short answer is that yes, 10x late draft players will play more games than a #1 pick, but you have limited list spots and the top draft prospect is a far higher strike rate than the lower ones.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/list-management-101.1114741/page-2#post-42060336
Personal opinion only but I did a fair bit of recruitment in my business life. Not footy players of course but I see some crossover. My wish list never changed:
1) Character - includes attributes like team orientation, determination, persistence, willingness to learn etc
2) Will to win - competitive spirit but still resilient
3) Skill/Education - I believe the draft system focusses a bit too much here. Many clubs (esp the Swans!) have shown that 1 and 2 can make up for deficiencies. This holds particularly in the bottom group of best 22. These are the guys who win premierships - ask us in 2012, Hawks, Dogs and Tiges.
I believe the Swans look very hard at 1 and 2, especially for lower picks. So far in recent years they appear to have done it very well indeed.
 

Kiama Chris

Norm Smith Medallist
May 10, 2016
7,417
16,675
Kiama
AFL Club
Sydney
Great response, and I agree with everything you wrote except this. Gary Rohan's skillset has not developed significantly since we drafted him. At the age of 17 he was a fast, flashy, occasional-impact player who averaged 13 disposals per game. Last year at the age of 26 he was a fast, flashy, occasional-impact player who averaged 9.6 disposals per game. His skill set should not and does not make him a superstar, he would need to improve significantly. I'm not sure its all between the ears, he is performing about as well now as he was before he was drafted (when he didn't have the big game pressure he does now).
Agree totally. Gaz is a great guy who does the occasional amazing thing and puts on good defensive pressure. Crowd pleaser but occasional coach killer.
 

Kiama Chris

Norm Smith Medallist
May 10, 2016
7,417
16,675
Kiama
AFL Club
Sydney
That was our pick 38. Freo used pick 34 for Hiscox and matched and they got connor blakely. Who won that. There was some good players after Hiscox.

Also Abe Davis was also matched.

To me better players were there but needed to show commitment to the Academy.

Sent from my SM-G900I using Tapatalk
Reckon both those guys were gambles and the club new it. Hiscock was a gun athlete that we tried to turn into a footballer. Nah. Davis was strong and skilful but to my eye never looked fit enough, never hardened up. Would have been geniuses if either panned out. Such is life.
 

Kapanis

Cancelled
Sydney Swans - Gary Rohan Player Sponsor 2018 Sydney Swans - George Hewett Player Sponsor 2017
Jul 26, 2015
3,758
4,830
AFL Club
Sydney
Personal opinion only but I did a fair bit of recruitment in my business life. Not footy players of course but I see some crossover. My wish list never changed:
1) Character - includes attributes like team orientation, determination, persistence, willingness to learn etc
2) Will to win - competitive spirit but still resilient
3) Skill/Education - I believe the draft system focusses a bit too much here. Many clubs (esp the Swans!) have shown that 1 and 2 can make up for deficiencies. This holds particularly in the bottom group of best 22. These are the guys who win premierships - ask us in 2012, Hawks, Dogs and Tiges.
I believe the Swans look very hard at 1 and 2, especially for lower picks. So far in recent years they appear to have done it very well indeed.
Have just finished Roos book Here it is. His philosophy was very much like yours which the club continues to use till this day.
 

Deccas

Club Legend
Jun 9, 2016
1,803
3,546
AFL Club
Sydney
Jack Hiscox was worth drafting purely for his name. Think about how much joy he brought us swannies fans in such a short career. Probably a joy to output ration that will go down in history.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Remove this Banner Ad

Back