Analysis The 2021 AFL betting thread.

[EDFL follower]

What would you do?

You’ve outlaid $40 @ $26.33 for blues/giants/north to win, the first 2 have come in and the cash out price is $288.88 if you stay in and north win you collect $1,053.57.

what would you do? Cash out? Bank on North winning?

I will follow the wisdom of the crowd.

No point putting the third leg on in the first place if you are going to cash out?

 

[Luke72]

Sensible decision is to cash out, so I say double down, put another $40 on North.

 

[hilly]

What would you do?

You’ve outlaid $40 @ $26.33 for blues/giants/north to win, the first 2 have come in and the cash out price is $288.88 if you stay in and north win you collect $1,053.57.

what would you do? Cash out? Bank on North winning?

I will follow the wisdom of the crowd.

Looking at the odds for tomorrow on BetFair, the expected return of your bet is about $340 (PR North win x potential win).

The bookmaker in question is trying to screw you with the cash out price.

Hold.

 

[hilly]

Same-game multi of:

Brandon Ellis

4

Brandon Ellis

Age

30

Ht

181cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.7

5star

K

12.6

5star

HB

9.0

5star

M

5.3

5star

T

2.4

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

18.4

4star

K

12.9

5star

HB

5.6

3star

M

4.7

4star

T

2.3

3star

CL

1.4

4star

D

15.0

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.2

4star

CL

1.0

3star

20 touches (26)
Carlton win (won by 11)
Carlton -1.5 points at 3QT (led by one point)

 

[danj]

No point putting the third leg on in the first place if you are going to cash out?

Never been worth cashing out before but in this instance I’m tempted

 

[Devington]

Never been worth cashing out before but in this instance I’m tempted

You could always hedge your bet. Cash out and put half back on us to win. If we don't come up you've still tripled your money.

 

[EDFL follower]

You could always hedge your bet. Cash out and put half back on us to win. If we don't come up you've still tripled your money.

Or you could not cash out and could back Adelaide as a saver

 

[danj]

Cash out price has gone up to $314.22, does it keep going up the closer you get to the final leg? Or is it because our odds have shortened?

 

[EDFL follower]

Cash out price has gone up to $314.22, does it keep going up the closer you get to the final leg? Or is it because our odds have shortened?

Based on the odds

 

[Benj7]

$10 @ $177

western bulldogs
St kilda
Carlton
GWS
Crows
Melbourne
Freo

$277 cash out.. me thinks ride it.

 

[hilly]

$10 @ $177

western bulldogs
St kilda
Carlton
GWS
Crows
Melbourne
Freo

$277 cash out.. me thinks ride it.

Well done, relatively stress-free Sunday.

My 'traditional' Sunday under/over multi of Crows 40+, Dees 1-39 and Dockers 1-39 saluted at $18s. Makes up for most of the weekend which was a bit suss.

 

[Benj7]

Well done, relatively stress-free Sunday.

My 'traditional' Sunday under/over multi of Crows 40+, Dees 1-39 and Dockers 1-39 saluted at $18s. Makes up for most of the weekend which was a bit suss.

Not bad at all, pocket 15 hundred leave some in to play around with.

Noiceee win there, brighten up the Monday ..

 

[shintemaster]

All right boys. This one is for hilly

I'm sitting on a two multis:

One is a 5 way paying $700 if Collingwood win - cash out of around $50 at the moment for a $5 investment.
The other is a 6 way paying $1k if Collingwood manage to lose at the line of <30 points - they're offering me $225 right now for that off a $10 bet

I'm going to sleep - I expect smart options in the morning because I'm half cut and an idiot.

BTW - Thanks Saints for being s**t and thanks West Coast for stealing a win - two absolute steals in two games plus Tab paying draws as wins makes me think I'm fresh out of luck and should take the money and run.

 

[dollarscost]

Life lesson: If you only have one leg left of a multi and you're worried about letting it run, don't cash out. You're paying a sizeable chunk of your winnings as a cashout fee when you use that option.

Find the best price you can for the other side of your last leg and back it as a single (or lay it on the Betfair Exchange if you have experience there). Use an online betting calculator to figure out how much you need to stake on this single to guarantee you maximum profit. This way you avoid the cashout fee.

Matched Betting Calculator

A simple matched betting calculator to work out stakes in a standard back and lay scenario, useful for both qualifying and bonus bets.

bonusmoney.com.au

 

[hilly]

All right boys. This one is for hilly

I'm sitting on a two multis:

One is a 5 way paying $700 if Collingwood win - cash out of around $50 at the moment for a $5 investment.
The other is a 6 way paying $1k if Collingwood manage to lose at the line of
I'm going to sleep - I expect smart options in the morning because I'm half cut and an idiot.

BTW - Thanks Saints for being sh*t and thanks West Coast for stealing a win - two absolute steals in two games plus Tab paying draws as wins makes me think I'm fresh out of luck and should take the money and run.

All right boys. This one is for hilly

I'm sitting on a two multis:

One is a 5 way paying $700 if Collingwood win - cash out of around $50 at the moment for a $5 investment.
The other is a 6 way paying $1k if Collingwood manage to lose at the line of
I'm going to sleep - I expect smart options in the morning because I'm half cut and an idiot.

BTW - Thanks Saints for being sh*t and thanks West Coast for stealing a win - two absolute steals in two games plus Tab paying draws as wins makes me think I'm fresh out of luck and should take the money and run.

Didn't bet on either game but am smarting about tipping both games incorrectly.

Never cash out unless you need to pay essential bills.

For multi 1, lay Collingwood $100 @ $5.50. 245 profit if they salute. If they lose you've made 100 on that lay bet. Lay a bit more if you want a similar return no matter who wins.

Multi 2 is Pies line bet? Just back Melb at the line somewhere else to balance it out.

On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[shintemaster]

Didn't bet on either game but am smarting about tipping both games incorrectly.

Never cash out unless you need to pay essential bills.

For multi 1, lay Collingwood $100 @ $5.50. 245 profit if they salute. If they lose you've made 100 on that lay bet. Lay a bit more if you want a similar return no matter who wins.

Multi 2 is Pies line bet? Just back Melb at the line somewhere else to balance it out.

On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app

I put $250 on Melbourne at the line so basically:

Melbourne win @ Line = $500 from my initial $265
Melbourne win under line = $987 from $265
Collingwood lose @ line = $987 from $265
Collingwood win = $1550 from $265

I figure double my money as a worst case scenario isn't a bad weekend.

 

[shintemaster]

I put $250 on Melbourne at the line so basically:

Melbourne win @ Line = $500 from my initial $265
Melbourne win under line = $987 from $265
Collingwood lose @ line = $987 from $265
Collingwood win = $1550 from $265

I figure double my money as a worst case scenario isn't a bad weekend.

Holy s**t. It's getting real with Collingwood taking it up to them.

 

[ferball]

Holy sh*t. It's getting real with Collingwood taking it up to them.

How's it going Shinte?

 

[shintemaster]

How's it going Shinte?

Pretty good long weekend

 

[hilly]

Well done sh1tma$ter

On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Star]

My hard luck story of the week. Roos into the Pies @ $20

 

[hilly]

My hard luck story of the week. Roos into the Pies @ $20

Hope you got half dividend at least?

I had Freo 1-39 into St Kilda 1-39.

On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app