Game Day The 2025 Draft Day Thread

[UseR2006]

And a song to sing as we watch,

Hey Matty Clarke by Kevin (Random260) Wilson :

Hey Matty Clarke you campaigner, where the **** is Sharp
I’ve looked at all these other spuds and there’s no one that I like
I wrote you a ****ing letter and posted about it twice
You dopey ****ing Richmond fart, you forgot my ****ing Sharp

If I wanted a stupid ruckman type, I would’ve bloody asked
And this half back flank and temu mid, you can shove right up your arse
You’ve stuffed the bloody order up, it’s enough to make you spew
But it’s not just me who’s snakey, SGIO is dirty too

Next time I come to see ya, I’m going to punch you in the guts
And I’ll sack the other recruiting knobs and kick Toddy in the nuts
You just wait 'til next year when you go back to the draft
And me and me little GIO come stomping through the door
And we'll say, yeah, you wait for it

Hey Pyke and Woosh you smell his breath
And check his bloodshot eyes
And don't listen to him eagles fans 'cause he tells ****ing lies
He's just a ****ing useless campaigner and he's not even very bright
'Cause the stupid ****in' w***er, forgot me ****in' Sharp

Hey Matty Clarke you campaigner, where the **** is Sharp
I’ve looked at all these other spuds and there’s no one that I like
I wrote you a ****ing letter and posted about it twice
You dopey ****ing Richmond fart, you forgot my ****ing Sharp

A Quick Ai rendition: https://suno.com/s/blQP3cSnulhqYb5g
It's funny how it interrupted the lyrics XD

 

[Ilkka Sinisalo]

What if we had bid Uwland 1 and Patterson 2? That was my preferred strategy if they were really set in getting Addisall. It's not as if they were just going to not match Uwland and Patterson, given that the alternative was using a bunch of crappy draft picks that they didn't have list spots for.

 

[In The Rod We Trust]

Would've thought all clubs are using some sort of software in this day and age tbh

Yeah agree just a matter of how they use it. A problem i find is that you cannot 100% do opposition draft analysis to see if a club can or can't match bids due to live pick trading.

 

[Bender_]

Is it wrong of me to expect the AFL to provide a draft calculator to clubs to deal with their convoluted draft point & bidding system rather than pushing it back on the clubs (which in reality they should all be doing if they didn't anyway)?

You created this system, now give us the correct tools to navigate it.

 

[Keys]

https://archive.is/8UOaS

This is the article (unlocked) I think

Would've thought all clubs are using some sort of software in this day and age tbh

They’d be using something but the reality is most clubs don’t need to have the same level of knowledge on the points system that Gold Coast do.

I’m not sure clubs could afford to have one of their recruiters working full time on devising a draft simulator or the inclination. Gold Coast do because they’ve known well in advance they have 4x R1 level academy kids coming through the system, so talent identification is less of an issue than ensuring they can match bids

How many player interviews do you think the Suns do in comparison to others - obviously they’d do some and have some analysis on the draft cohort overall but I’d be staggered if it was at the same level as the rest of the competition

Quite possibly the reason we tried a number of times to trade up from 13 (or 19 as it ended up) using a F2 (I’m assuming we only ever offered the Saints’ pick) - which we eventually did with the Hawks.

An Addinsal bid at 14 or 15 may have had a different outcome.

Reading that Twomey article it sounded like we were trying to trade up for Dovaston then pivoted to making sure Lindsay was still available if the Suns matched our Murray and Addinsall bids

I think their strategy was to try trade up the order if possible and pick players based on their internal rankings, if that meant bidding on a player then that’s what they did. It doesn’t appear there was some grand plan to bid on Sun’s players above where they were ranked purely to squeeze them on points nor do I feel that was necessary

 

[Keys]

What if we had bid Uwland 1 and Patterson 2? That was my preferred strategy if they were really set in getting Addisall. It's not as if they were just going to not match Uwland and Patterson, given that the alternative was using a bunch of crappy draft picks that they didn't have list spots for.

Might have made a difference but they ranked Duursma as the best player in the draft and called his name out accordingly. And Duursma deserved that recognition as he was the virtually unanimously no.1 ranked player

To deny him that honour just to make it harder for the Suns to match a bid on a player later in R1 seems counterproductive to me

Being the first pick in a draft is a pretty big thing and does have a level of prestige attached to it so I’m glad we gave Duursma the respect of calling his name out first

Is it wrong of me to expect the AFL to provide a draft calculator to clubs to deal with their convoluted draft point & bidding system rather than pushing it back on the clubs (which in reality they should all be doing if they didn't anyway)?

You created this system, now give us the correct tools to navigate it.

Fair chance they have the details on how to calculate the points required etc but what the Suns built was more of a simulator capable of factoring in all types of scenarios.

So they’d have worked through what ifs based not only on where picks came for their players but also for other club’s tied players since those bids influence the value of any later picks held. It’d give them an idea of which picks to target in trades - like the swap with the bulldogs that at first glance appeared to cost them points but in reality improved their position once other bids came in

It would have been a pretty impressive piece of software but something of use to them only

Can almost guarantee they had other levers to pull if they became necessary (like if we made a bid with pick 1) but never saw the light of day

The points matching system made it as easy as possible for club’s to match, not necessarily by intent, and Gold Coast more than anyone found a way to exploit the loopholes which are gradually being filled. The revised points index this year helped but there’s still weaknesses which appear will be addressed next year with the proposed changes

• No 10% discount
• Maximum of two picks to match a bid
• No ability to collect more draft picks than list spots once the draft starts

With those changes, there’s no way Gold Coast would have been able to do what they did this year - they’d have needed 4 mid to late R1 picks just to match Uwland and Patterson

 

[Shazzman]

I think it’s going to be Lindsay with our third. Do we then target Swadling or Fred later as midfield options

Good call

 

[Eastern Rangers]

Yeah agree just a matter of how they use it. A problem i find is that you cannot 100% do opposition draft analysis to see if a club can or can't match bids due to live pick trading.

Given we did a major share of the bidding that shouldn't have been an issue.

 

[Mr Q]

Is it wrong of me to expect the AFL to provide a draft calculator to clubs to deal with their convoluted draft point & bidding system rather than pushing it back on the clubs (which in reality they should all be doing if they didn't anyway)?

You created this system, now give us the correct tools to navigate it.

I'm reasonably sure that the AFL would supply exactly that to the clubs.

But there'd be no way to produce a system that could at a glance tell you what's going to happen further down the draft when all the variables are taken into account.

Gold Coast would have looked at worst case scenarios and built it all around that. But it's worth noting that the huge haul it's got in this year's trade/draft period means that their involvement in 2026 will likely match Port's this year. If one of their '26 Academy players suddenly has a break out year - well GC probably aren't getting them.

I'm going to add that one thing that all this has done is to really get Queensland on the map in terms of player development, which I'm not sure would have been possible without these systems. I get that up to now it's really been to the benefit of the Lions and Suns (but the Suns have still only played two finals ever - and the Lions were more hit in the arse by a unicorn rainbow of FS not Academy picks) - but tightening it up now will hopefully open up the benefits in coming years to other clubs without it falling back to previous levels.

(We should make an argument that WC + Freo need "Western Academies" to address the dire position of WA footy's development pathways at the moment)

 

[HoneyBadger35]

I think the read was always that the Suns might not opt to take a 19th in line midfielder rather than not having the points tally to do so if they wished.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Suns have a startling lack of WA talent to try and poach. Will Powell and then Jed Walter who left Perth at 9.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

Why would they want WA players in the first place when they have an Academy?

 

[Keys]

I think the read was always that the Suns might not opt to take a 19th in line midfielder rather than not having the points tally to do so if they wished.

I also have an unprovable theory that it was Gold Coast who alerted Cal Twomey to the possibility that not only would West Coast bid on Murray and Addinsall, but also hinted to him that they might not be able to match

It always struck me as odd predraft that Twomey seemed so confident that we would bid on the two Suns players but had no line of sight on what we might do if those bids were matched. He was proven correct that we’d bid but I don’t recall him linking us to Lindsay or even providing a suggestion of who we might look at if the Suns matched our bid.

Clearly the Suns had worked out what they needed to do to match bids. But kept the how a secret whilst setting up the deals quietly in the background and allowing the belief they wouldn’t/couldn’t match to be common knowledge. Note also that Twomey didn’t have much of a heads up on any of the pick swaps Gold Coast did

 

[ghostbat12]

Those sneaky b*iatches.

Not sure what would have changed had it be known that they are making plans to match points.

Also, suns GWS etc would have high interest on building that software. None of other clubs would give a rats ass really unless you have a plethora of academy or NGAs….like us.

There is a guy on YouTube who built same simulator for the trades.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Why would they want WA players in the first place when they have an Academy?

Agreed. Point is not much to poach from them if they have a list squeeze