Analysis The 5 remaining rounds and beyond - can we still do it?

[Southerntakeover]

Also, absolutely no one thinks 8th is a success or 'doing it'.

The standard we set for ourselves coming into the season was premiership contenders. We cannot do that. If you're sure we can, go place a bet- I'm sure the odds are nice.

 

[John Who]

Whether we make it now or not doesn't much matter as the way we are playing, we would bounce out of the finals in the 1st week.

We may as week start switching things up now, including playing younger guys & inject more speed.

The problem is that we’re using history (the last 20 years) to rely on what to do now.

If we happen to win 4 of the next 5 games, we’d have form coming into the Finals, perhaps even possibly getting to 4th or 5th spot. Then playing against consecutive teams that haven’t been much better when relating to this season!

I think the next 2 rounds would be the tell-tale of how we should list manage the squad.

 

[John Who]

Also, absolutely no one thinks 8th is a success or 'doing it'.

The standard we set for ourselves coming into the season was premiership contenders. We cannot do that. If you're sure we can, go place a bet- I'm sure the odds are nice.

If we make it into Finals, we can still end up anywhere between 4th to 8th (as of current). Most, including yourself, are assuming we’d be 8th at best.

It doesn’t take an Einstein to know our premiership odds are low. Is it currently a hopeless situation? Not yet.

 

[crows dude]

Yes we can. Just. And this is with losing our last 3.

 

[Southerntakeover]

If we make it into Finals, we can still end up anywhere between 4th to 8th (as of current). Most, including yourself, are assuming we’d be 8th at best.

It doesn’t take an Einstein to know our premiership odds are low. Is it currently a hopeless situation? Not yet.

If you're confident, go place a bet.

If you're not confident then stop with the chauvinism.

 

[slice]

We’ll win all 5 and a final and then bomb out horrifically.

I.e. we do enough to validate the plan and show that no mass changes are needed ensuring we remain stuck in our mediocre existence

 

[Betts are off]

At this point, I'm too afraid to look more then half a game into the future.

 

[Grenville]

It's honestly better if we don't.

Fall across the line into 8th and all we'll hear is "sometimes there seems to be some outside noise about us but if you look at our record we made finals".

If we want any chance at an external review we need to miss finals or nothing will change.

Same goes for any chance at making overdue hard calls on our list that didn't age well at all.

Just beat Carlton

Agreed - meaningful change is overdue and making up the numbers in the 8 makes it less likely.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Yes we can. Just. And this is with losing our last 3.

View attachment 713735

If there's a chance of us being tied on points, I reckon there's no way Port don't win the last round by enough to overtake us on percentage against a freo with nothing to play for.

 

[footy4ever]

HA!

The kids were watching youtube yesterday and this popped up. What a blast from the past.

 

[footy4ever]

And yet we are with Carlton this week. Go figure!

Because of the anticipation of a typical Crows shot to our own collective foot. It would be absolutely typical of the Crows to drop this game to our mortal trading enemy to set our traded pick back another rung and to give Carlton flogs the perfect point and laugh fodder. Ladder position says we should win it comfortably. Would anyone here put their house on it? Form, mindset and footy gods say we lose it.


I can't wait to be wrong.

 

[footy4ever]

Not improving our win/loss ratio from last year despite an easier draw and no injury plague makes this year a catastrophic failure, even if we do fall into the eight.

Correct weight!

 

[Johnny Rutten]

Going on current form, we'd be lucky to win any of the remaining 5 games. I think we'll lose this week, and then the s**t will really hit the fan.

I think we can only win 2 games thereafter: Saints & Dogs.

Likely finish 10-12 (miss the 8); Possible finish 11-11 (may scrape in).

I hope I am wrong and we can return to the standard we set (vs. GWS) before the bye. Based on that standard, we would definitely beat Carlton & Saints, and be better than 50/50 chances against Pies and Dogs. Giving us 12-13 wins, and comfortably making the 8.

Which Crows will turn up? We are about to find out.

 

[Anzacpaul]

I'm torn on this.

Of course I want my team to succeed and play finals.

However, I feel like 2 years out of the finals, something might actually happen at the club. We might finally realise our coaches and ageing list won't get it done. Assistants might finally get the boot.

Pyke will get until round 8 in 2020 and if we're not tracking well, he'll be out too.

 

[jackster83]

Hoping for a ten goal loss this week so it makes things untenable.

Stuff the draft pick. They won't get games or develop properly with this shambolic coaching panel anyway. Geelong will pick someone with pick 17 who will debut sooner than whoever we pick.

 

[footy4ever]

Love your enthusiasm John Who, and your encouraging threads, but you've led with your chin again mate. The Adelaide board is rightfully a very disgruntled group of supporters and while I try to remain positive, the way we've thrown away our last three losses has made it almost impossible for me to see any good in the club at the moment. It's so bleak looking ahead.

 

[OzSparrow]

A summation of the AFC failed 2019 year:

 

[OzSparrow]

Of course we can do it.

We just need to win a couple more games, fall into 7th or 8th and we're there. Another successful season.

Don't worry about the finals, they're not what we are here for. We just need to make them, bonuses are paid and send the boys off on their overseas holidays, and start talking about the mediocre next season

This plan has successfully been employed by the AFC since 1998.

Expect nothing to change.

 

[Crowboto]

Hasnt this team done enough bed soiling over countless years to show that limping into the 8 is not in anyones best interest. We will not fire a single shot even if we manage to fall in. The fact that we have at best a 50/50 chance of winning in a season defining game against of all teams Carlton says it all. I mean seriously Carlton!? FFS, what we actually need is a total team rebuild overseen by new competent people. Close thread.

 

[Thetrader15]

Hasnt this team done enough bed soiling over countless years to show that limping into the 8 is not in anyones best interest. We will not fire a single shot even if we manage to fall in. The fact that we have at best a 50/50 chance of winning in a season defining game against of all teams Carlton says it all. I mean seriously Carlton!? FFS, what we actually need is a total team rebuild overseen by new competent people. Close thread.

"limping into the 8 is not in anyones best interest. "

Well, that depends on what is in our coach's contract

 

[GameofSloanes]

I think we'll be flat out winning 3 if we were in good form. Based on what I saw last Friday, we're a good chance of going 0-5.
Collingwood and the Eagles will win by 10 goals against us.

 

[Simmo28]

The short answer: probably not.

Intermediate answer: not according to the dozen or so threads calling for heads to roll from players to coaches to administrators and Burton.

Longer answer: please read below.

------------------------------------------------------------------

Yes we still can! And here's a realistic totally unbiased appraisal:

What are our chances with our remaining games?

Round 19: Blues (away)
Surely we are more than a 50/50?

Round 20: Saints (home)
A probable win for us.

Round 21: Eagles (away)
Probably, likely, a loss.

Round 22: Pies (home)
We aren't red hot, but neither are the Pies, 50/50.

Round 23; Dogs (away)
A hard one to read, both in fluctuating form, 50/50.

If we're talking probability, we are likely to win 3 out of the 5 games. If we're fair dinkum, maybe 4 out of 5 would be great!

Also we are currently in 8th spot (9 wins), with the teams below still contending are Power, Hawks and Dogs (all on 8 wins but all with inferior percentages than the Crows).

So winning 3 games (minimum) is the magical number we need to likely reach the Finals. This would mean the 3 other contending teams need to win all 5 of their remaining games to surpass us in wins/percentage, which seems highly unlikely.

So realistically we're still in a high chance of making the 8. So then...

Who will we fear if we make the Finals?
Assuming the Final 8 is some permutation of the current top 8 teams, we could be facing any of these teams:

1. Bombers - sure the recent loss was gut-wrenching, but the kicking inaccuracy by Crows was really what gave the Bombers a chance in the second half. Moral of the day: kick straighter FFS!

2. GWS - we recently beat them in Rd 12.

3. Tigers - we recently beat them in Rd 13.

4. Pies - would be highly anticipated of the upcoming match against them in Rd 22. They've lost 3 out of their last 5 games, probably in worse form than us!

5. Eagles - we lost to them in Rd 10 by 2 goals, where we actually lead more than 5 goals and we ended up with more scoring shots. Round 21 should be interesting!

6. Lions - we lost to them in Rd 9 by 1 lousy point, up in Brissy.

7. Cats - we lost to them twice and easily our biggest nemesis this year. The good news right now, along with the Pies, they've also lost 3 out of their last 5 games and are looking wobbly nearing the end rounds.

Basically, none of the above teams scream out "BOO, we will make you poop your pants!"
The real question is "can we get a Crows unit that is consistently committed?"

We will make 8th and likely play GWS in an elimination and have our balls handed to us. The club will claim its fantastic we made the finals and announce Mackay’s contract extension at the same time. Good times ahead.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Thetrader15]

A summation of the AFC failed 2019 year:

View attachment 713773

 

[TheLeftFist8]

Hoping for a ten goal loss this week so it makes things untenable.

Emotionally I'm at this point also.

Rationally, I still want to win this week though! After that, I'm happy for events to unfold which slap the club in the face to ensure generational change is the only option, even for the arrogant, conservative, patronising, insular, dismissive, manipulative, dispassionate organisation that we've become.

 

[Simmo28]

Emotionally I'm at this point also.

Rationally, I still want to win this week though! After that, I'm happy for events to unfold which slap the club in the face to ensure generational change is the only option, even for the arrogant, conservative, patronising, insular, dismissive, manipulative, dispassionate organisation that we've become.

Did you have to pull out the thesaurus for that post?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk