Analysis The advantage of our tough draw

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

I was thinking about our draw this morning. We have all the other top 6 teams from last season twice, as well as likely top 8 contenders Geelong and Port Adelaide. This makes for a tough draw, but there are a number of positives out of it:

- We play a lot of 8 point games. What I mean by that is we play the majority of our games against other teams contending for the top 8. This means every game we win against fellow top 8 contenders is also a loss they suffer. So every game against top 8 contenders is doubly important. At the moment we're 2-1 from those games.

- It gives our players experience against good teams. While the players benefited from playing 2 finals last year, playing game after game against top 8 contenders will help the inexperienced players understand the level they need to reach week-in, week-out in order to be a good player and a good side.

- If we win more of those games against top 8 contenders, it will give our players the belief that the team is good enough to beat anyone on their day. Thinking you can win is not quite the same as knowing you can because you actually did it multiple times earlier in the year.

So while our draw is tough, I can see a lot of upside to it.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

We've been able to get by and even make finals in other seasons without beating many (any) good teams. Won't be able to this year.

Makes for a tough year but will give us a very real indication of how our players and game plan stack up. If we get there we'll have earned it.

 

[Mattrox]

/thread

 

[chazwazza]

I think if we can get to R10 with 5 wins its only just a pass, don't see why we can't get 6 wins out of it.

 

[Jinglebells32]

If we get there, we should be able to do some damage in September.

 

[Cromulent]

<cliché>Gotta beat the best to be the best</cliché>

 

[Vader]

To be the best you have to beat the best.

EDIT: Beaten to it...

 

[40porpoise]

I'm not happy with 5 wins after 10 rounds, the hawthorns of the world and freo Sydney or Geelong in recent years would win week after week no matter who they play. Theres no reason why we can't win the next 3 or 4 games

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

We've been able to get by and even make finals in other seasons without beating many (any) good teams. Won't be able to this year.

Makes for a tough year but will give us a very real indication of how our players and game plan stack up. If we get there we'll have earned it.

You're correct. Our record vs top 8 teams was terrible in 2012 when we made the prelim and, from memory, last year when we made the semi. This year we won't even make the finals if we don't have at least a positive record vs top 8 teams.

 

[GreyCrow]

<cliché>Gotta beat the best to be the best</cliché>

Gotta go with Ric Flair 'to be the man you got to beat the man' woo

 

[Niximus]

Beat the best, to be the best, you must.

Just wanted to say it in a third fourth force way.

 

[ggDropbear]

On the plus side, the middle half of the season will have ample time to rest our more sketchy guns and rotate a few players around (looking at you Milera) while still dominating.

 

[happy_knackers]

Beat the best, to be the best, you must.

Just wanted to say it in a third fourth force way.

Yoda's got a case of the sad Afflecks goin on there

 

[happy_knackers]

Draw shmore i say. Why would you want a cushy run through the season only to get embarrassed on the big stage when you've go nowhere to hide. 119 is proof to this.
Get there the hard way and earn the respect. Don't be the one who sooks about the tough draw. Bring em on. If we don't make it, we just aren't good enough yet.

 

[DD#23]

how about this, would you have preferred the tough run of 9 games at the end of the season or first up?

would that have burnt us out before finals? If we come home with a wet sail with our actual draw will that soften us up a bit before finals?

 

[happy_knackers]

how about this, would you have preferred the tough run of 9 games at the end of the season or first up?

would that have burnt us out before finals? If we come home with a wet sail with our actual draw will that soften us up a bit before finals?

Rip off the bandaid early

 

[Cromulent]

how about this, would you have preferred the tough run of 9 games at the end of the season or first up?

I like how it's tough early, lax in the middle, and a couple of tough games at the end to build up into finals.. Perfect imo.

 

[maxlilly]

What I like about the tough opening 8 rounds is that Don Pyke gets to see what players stand up against the the strong oppostion and which guys don't. And he has a soild 8 weeks to make informed decisions.
There are plenty of good players when we play the lower sides but don't perform when the going gets tough.
In the second half of the season, hopefully he knows our best 22 and we stick with those guys for the rest of the year.
Instead of going into finals and not knowing which guys can handle and perform under pressure.

 

[Pdub]

Selfishly I was excited about the tough draw, the week is more exciting when we are playing a good side on the weekend. When we are up against a side we should beat, it feels a bit like there is no win. Footy is more exciting when the crows are the underdogs and if we have more underdog games we are capable of winning, then that makes it a good season for anticipation.

 

[Rotayjay]

I was thinking about our draw this morning. We have all the other top 6 teams from last season twice, as well as likely top 8 contenders Geelong and Port Adelaide. This makes for a tough draw, but there are a number of positives out of it:

- We play a lot of 8 point games. What I mean by that is we play the majority of our games against other teams contending for the top 8. This means every game we win against fellow top 8 contenders is also a loss they suffer. So every game against top 8 contenders is doubly important. At the moment we're 2-1 from those games.

- It gives our players experience against good teams. While the players benefited from playing 2 finals last year, playing game after game against top 8 contenders will help the inexperienced players understand the level they need to reach week-in, week-out in order to be a good player and a good side.

- If we win more of those games against top 8 contenders, it will give our players the belief that the team is good enough to beat anyone on their day. Thinking you can win is not quite the same as knowing you can because you actually did it multiple times earlier in the year.

So while our draw is tough, I can see a lot of upside to it.

Good post!

Saturday night and the following week against Hawthorn will be big tests. Hopefully we can win one of those, get a Showdown double and boost our percentage against weak teams.

 

[baldandbroke]

We double up on:

West Coast, Fremantle, North Melbourne (already 1 loss), Power (already 1 win), Geelong

Who in that group are we scared of? Anyone in there we don't think we can get at least 1 win from - home or away? How many of this group do we see as top 8 at the end of the season? How many top 4?

Everyone plays everyone once - it's where you play these and at what stage of the season.

Home we get:

• Sydney (4)
• GWS Giants (10)
• St Kilda (11)
• Collingwood (17)
• Essendon (19)
• Brisbane (20)

The game this week against Sydney looks like our toughest assignment at home, with a tip of the hat to GWS.

Away:

• Richmond (3 - WIN)
• Hawthorn (5)
• Western Bulldogs (7)
• Gold Coast (9)
• Melbourne (15)
• Carlton (16)

The away games to the Hawks and Western Bulldogs stick out with Gold Coast the next toughest - win one of those three and we probably break even. That isn't to say that Melbourne and Carlton are givens - just less difficult.

It will be a great day when we as supporters realise that the AFC is one of the teams that others don't want to play twice

 

[Vader]

It will be a great day when we as supporters realise that the AFC is one of the teams that others don't want to play twice

It will be a great day when the AFC becomes one of the teams that others don't want to play twice.

Adelaide was one of those teams in 2005/06, arguably until 2008. We haven't been one of those teams since then. We may well be one of those teams in 2016, if we continue with our early-season form.

 

[Samcro24]

We've been able to get by and even make finals in other seasons without beating many (any) good teams. Won't be able to this year.

Makes for a tough year but will give us a very real indication of how our players and game plan stack up. If we get there we'll have earned it.

This. It can be quite easy for an average side to make the finals with 12 home games. You only have to win 8 or so at home, and chances are you'll also draw some real duds on the road. So it can be easy to scratch up 12 wins. This has flattered us in the past.
I said when the draw was announced that its ideal- make the finals and we will be a chance to do damage as it means we have had to play good footy to get there. If we arent up to it and fall down the ladder, then hopefully the dud players get found out and we also get some good picks. Win-win. End of perpetual mid table cycle.

This, along with the timeslots (best in ages) make for a dream draw IMO. I'd welcome it every year.

 

[little graham]

A few things on the hard draw

We've been able to back off the last two weeks as result of stitching games up early.

Freo and Western bulldogs are not "hard" anymore, we'll find that with others as we build momentum.

New coach, new players and 4 Saturday games in a row has helped everyone get use to the routine.

The draw is actually quite good in hardest part of the season.(middle of winter)

At current form and injuries the hard games are round five,(maybe nine) twelve, eighteen and twenty three.

Very few of the dreaded Sunday games.

It's obvious after three rounds that this league has a good half and a poor half

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

A few things on the hard draw

We've been able to back off the last two weeks as result of stitching games up early.

Freo and Western bulldogs are not "hard" anymore, we'll find that with others as we build momentum.

New coach, new players and 4 Saturday games in a row has helped everyone get use to the routine.

The draw is actually quite good in hardest part of the season.(middle of winter)

At current form and injuries the hard games are round five,(maybe nine) twelve, eighteen and twenty three.

Very few of the dreaded Sunday games.

It's obvious after three rounds that this league has a good half and a poor half

I don't expect the Bulldogs game to be easy.