The AFL wants 22 teams. Name your next four.

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BulldogJake

All Australian
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Melbourne
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Western Bulldogs
- Tasmania
- WA3
- Canberra (plays 2-3 games a season in Albury)
- North Queensland (Based in Cairns, play 2-3 games a year in Townsville).

NZ & Newcastle unlucky.
 

Howard Littlejohn

Brownlow Medallist
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Location
Canberra
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Perth City - certainty
WA4 - location is tricky, but easily second in line (probably Wanneroo District, given Freo cover the south)
South-West Sydney - dubious but maybe in the long term; Liverpool-Campbelltown type area, but how it gets an identity different from GWS is difficult; loss leader with long term benfits

Very difficult to see a viable fourth market, even with a 30-40 year timeframe.

I could see the AFL trying for the Sunshine Coast but its reliant on heavy growth and a region coming together from disparate towns.
FNQ is difficult as Cairns and Townsille aren't exactly near neighbours.
Tas and NT just too small and decentralised.
Canberra maybe has a big enough economy but already struggles to support Brumbies and Raiders (both get dismal followings when losing).
NZ adds nothing to national media rights.
Port Moresby too insecure (physically and economically) and adds nothing to media rights, but at least the game is widely known in PNG. All the weather issues with Darwin also exist.
 
Joined
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AFL Club
GWS
GR AF is again having good growth in NSW/ACT in 2019.

In 2019 (cf. 2018 AFL Official regd. nos.), the number of GR regd. competition (ie school & Club comps.) players will, almost certainly, surpass WA for the first time- & will accelerate from 2019. Its population easily surpasses WA, & this huge disparity will continue indefinitely.
The ABS is predicting Sydney alone will have a population of c. 8,000,000 by 2050- for strategic reasons, the AFL will want a 3rd team in this very wealthy & influential area.
ALL Australia's major media companies have their HQ's in Sydney, & it dominates advertising HQ's. Sydney advertising rates are easily the highest in Australia.
It also has a slightly bigger no. of ASX top 200 companies, cf Melbourne.

Furthermore, the ACT, Wollongong, South Coast, Riverina etc. will have a population of 1,1000,000+ by 2050. Canberra has the highest median wage in Aust.

I suspect a South Sydney/Canberra (Cannons?/'Burras-Kookaburras?), playing 6 + 5 games each pa, will join the AFL- possibly within the next 15 years.
The obvious need for a Tasmanian team will see also its entry- & the restoration of the Tas. traditional VFL/AFL (pre 2000) legendary recruitment goldmine.
This scenario would produce a 10 th broadcast each week/more Rights' $.
Financially "challenged" Melb. teams will be encouraged to take home games to Wollongong each year, playing South Sydney/Canberra.

The 3rd & 4th teams, if they occur, are unlikely to be added until after 2050.

GWS currently has 24,000+ members, & is aiming for c. 30,000 in 2019- huge, by Sydney standards.

In the respected Annual Tom Brock RL Lecture on 19.9. 2018, Roy Masters (who, since the 1980's, has "specialised" in analysis of off-field NRL & AFL developments/strategies) said:-

. in the next 10-20 years, he expects "...the AFL will move into Campbelltown with a GREAT (my emphasis) deal of wealth and resources" ie probably implying an additional AFL team there (at about 37 minute 30 seconds).
(GWS would then be WS only- no more home games in Canberra).

. "rural NSW is under siege" (at about 39 minutes 30 seconds) ie declining male GR RL regd. nos, & growth of AF.

http://www.tombrock.com.au/category/tom-brock-lecture-2/

As an example of the AF GR boom in NSW/ACT, the link below refers to the North Coast of NSW (ie covering the area above Newcastle, doesn't include Black Diamond League). Until recent years, this was a barren area for AF.
In 2019 it will have 33 jnr. teams from 10 clubs (doesn't include kids 5 y.o.- 8y.o., who are part of the booming Auskick nos. there; nor strong growth in schools). These numbers have doubled since 2015. Snr. AF comp. nos. there are also growing.

http://aflnorthcoast.com.au/2019/03/28/biggest-ever-junior-competition-draw-is-out/

On 10.9.2016, the ABC stated AFL Commission Chairman M. Fitzpatrick had the aspiration, for AF: "...the 20-30 year view was to become the most popular sport across the entire East Coast of Australia".
Fitzpatrick said, re AF's position on the entire East Coast "We'd like to be the number one sport...that's going to be tough...that's manageable".

Both Demetriou & McLachlan (recently) have both said (paraphrasing) "...that when the next expansion occurs, Tasmania will probably be the next team in".
Fitzpatrick's sentiments below, re the AFL's aspiration to achieve eventual East Coast "domination", suggest a Tasmanian team will be created as part of a "double" entry.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09...-afl-strategy-and-future-of-expansion/7833224

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/afl-boss-admits-buddy-move-disappointed

Fitzpatrick said, re NSW & Qld "The long view-and it's a 20 to 30 year view- is that we need to become the dominant sport in these states".
 
Last edited:
Joined
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Wimmera
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Collingwood
OK - I'll have a go at this challenge. I've been dissuaded by the locals in the WA Third Club thread from picking Perth. For me, the two standout choices are
1. Tasmania - based in Hobart but with a 6-5 split in home games between Hobart and Launceston. This is also subject to State Gov't financial commitments.
2. Canberra - but with one or two home games played at Albury (Lavington Oval) and also Wagga (subject to stadium development there). This will also have the effect of making GWS concentrate more on it's Western Sydney heartland and/or perhaps final another secondary market - Wollongong perhaps, subject to stadium development?

After these 2, it become more difficult and only in the longer term. The post by BringBackTorps makes a good case for a third Sydney team, albeit in the long term (20 years or so).

The Newcastle/Hunter region is showing great growth a grassroots levels and with it's population expected to go way over the million mark, must become a contender- though it's subject to a stadium development (probably to be shared with cricket which also has no stadium there for major events or T20, in contrast to Geelong and Canberra).

Many have picked Darwin, but in truth its population, economy and projected growth are all far too small to support a club. The only way it could happen would be with a big wad of guaranteed Gov't financial support (perhaps using supporting indigenous players as justification). Such a club could also take a couple of games to Cairns, Townsville and/or Mackay. But I think it's a long shot.

Auckland - maybe not quite as impossible as some might think, as l've actually been surprised by the amount of awareness of AFL in my work visits there - particularly amongst the younger demographic. It's still only a long term possibility at best, and not very likely.
 

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Chillblanator

Team Captain
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The Edge of Orion
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Geelong
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QPR
Once we master the science of teleportation, then I would think that the logical expansion teams would be 2 from Ireland, 1 from London and 1 from Auckland. Until that day comes, it is pointless trying to expand into anywhere O/S other than New Zealand.

What I think would be fair, as opposed to suiting the AFL's expansion policies, would be a demotion / promotion system like they have in most soccer leagues around the world. Every year, the 4 lowest ranked AFL teams would be replaced by the respective winners of the VFL, SANFL, WAFL and NEAFL comps.

With the threat of demotion, tanking would no longer be an issue.
 
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Once we master the science of teleportation, then I would think that the logical expansion teams would be 2 from Ireland, 1 from London and 1 from Auckland. Until that day comes, it is pointless trying to expand into anywhere O/S other than New Zealand.

What I think would be fair, as opposed to suiting the AFL's expansion policies, would be a demotion / promotion system like they have in most soccer leagues around the world. Every year, the 4 lowest ranked AFL teams would be replaced by the respective winners of the VFL, SANFL, WAFL and NEAFL comps.

With the threat of demotion, tanking would no longer be an issue.
Would love it, but Gill would cry at the thought of a “non-marketable” team in his league


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
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Just behind you...
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Fremantle
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Westbury
There will probably be a two teams (North and South) from Sydney. The AFL went where the people were last time, they'll do it again.
Hobart, Gil has implied Tassie is next, if they don't stuff up the TAC team.
Albury, just because. I think 22 is too many.
 
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Just what Victoria needs,,, another team to feed.
Move Hawthorn to Tasmania
Move North Melbourne to Canberra (no more GWS home games there)
Move St Kilda to Newcastle/New Zealand
Move the Bulldogs to Ballarat
Move the Demons (rebrand) to the Northern Territory

Acknowledge and recognise their history, and play a couple of home games in Melbourne each year, but do it for the growth and good of the game.
 
Joined
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AFL Club
Melbourne
Move Hawthorn to Tasmania
Move North Melbourne to Canberra (no more GWS home games there)
Move St Kilda to Newcastle/New Zealand
Move the Bulldogs to Ballarat
Move the Demons (rebrand) to the Northern Territory

Acknowledge and recognise their history, and play a couple of home games in Melbourne each year, but do it for the growth and good of the game.
That would make more sense than adding teams and diluting the game even more
 

rfctiger74

Premium Platinum
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Richmond
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76'ers
Move Hawthorn to Tasmania
Move North Melbourne to Canberra (no more GWS home games there)
Move St Kilda to Newcastle/New Zealand
Move the Bulldogs to Ballarat
Move the Demons (rebrand) to the Northern Territory

Acknowledge and recognise their history, and play a couple of home games in Melbourne each year, but do it for the growth and good of the game.
Outside Tassie, do these locations have the juice to fund and support a team for 9-10 home games?
 
Joined
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AFL Club
West Coast
Move Hawthorn to Tasmania
Move North Melbourne to Canberra (no more GWS home games there)
Move St Kilda to Newcastle/New Zealand
Move the Bulldogs to Ballarat
Move the Demons (rebrand) to the Northern Territory

Acknowledge and recognise their history, and play a couple of home games in Melbourne each year, but do it for the growth and good of the game.
Ahhh, ok i understand where you are coming from. Yeah i like that.
 
Joined
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Outside Tassie, do these locations have the juice to fund and support a team for 9-10 home games?
What i would say is that we are struggling with 18 teams for quality let alone 22, so relocation of teams might be the only viable option if we want to expand.
Tassie is viable and Ballarat imo
Canberra might work and the same with NT, but not with the Demons
I still think that NZ is a non starter and Newcastle as well
 
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Outside Tassie, do these locations have the juice to fund and support a team for 9-10 home games?
This is a good question. They probably don't at this stage, but I would start the transition until they do. Start from 4-5 a season and work your way up until it becomes financially feasible.

As for fixturing, I think it should be a more extended pre-season where teams have more serious hit-outs against each other before the real season begins to prep themselves for the real season without the risk of losing points for being "rusty" early in the season. Perhaps the pre-season winner gets bonus points. Make it 18 rounds, reverse the fixtures every second year (Adel vs. BL Y1, BL vs. Adel Y2, etc.) but include a bonus rivalry round, maybe two rivalry rounds, making it a 19 round season. Could round it up to 20, I guess.
 
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