Racing The All Star Mile

FallingLiefs

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Bet at you own risk, I'm not saying she will turn the tables, but there were a lot of horses suffering from the heat. By race 8 the track was rock hard and her action was different. I though she may have been short of a run as they have done nothing with her. She was used out of the gate early, and covered 2 lengths futher. Then you add that Darmanin hit MJ 13 times before the 100m and in consecutive strides in the 100m and the margin is not that far. The oaks was just too far, and if your wanting a refund on a horse going from 1600m to 2500m you should give up gambling.

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good luck, well done and all that, most of us wish we had a horse half as good but you won't get far on this board with typical owners excuses once beaten by 2 in the race and steps up in grade at $10.

Hope she's able to pull out a massive spike and run a PB with gifted run for you. just with some of (all) the people on here won't be diving in around the $10 mark when you yourself concede she may not be able to go with the clapper at $5.50 and i doubt you will convince anyone other than yourself.
 

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iluvparis

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Thread starter #377
Bet at you own risk, I'm not saying she will turn the tables, but there were a lot of horses suffering from the heat. By race 8 the track was rock hard and her action was different. I though she may have been short of a run as they have done nothing with her. She was used out of the gate early, and covered 2 lengths futher. Then you add that Darmanin hit MJ 13 times before the 100m and in consecutive strides in the 100m and the margin is not that far. The oaks was just too far, and if your wanting a refund on a horse going from 1600m to 2500m you should give up gambling.

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#noexcuses

If the trainer didn't have her fit for Victoria's Premier Autumn 3yo race I give up.

I guess she is no Mosheen (unlike MJ)
 

HeathComeBack

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#noexcuses

If the trainer didn't have her fit for Victoria's Premier Autumn 3yo race I give up.

I guess she is no Mosheen (unlike MJ)
gees you are a miserable bastard. He already said he hopes to do well and so do i. Horse is already a group 1 winner and has the potential to win others. Hes a legit 10/1 chance in a 5 million dollar race. why on earth do you feel the need to attack the horse?
 

iluvparis

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gees you are a miserable bastard. He already said he hopes to do well and so do i. Horse is already a group 1 winner and has the potential to win others. Hes a legit 10/1 chance in a 5 million dollar race. why on earth do you feel the need to attack the horse?
I didn't attack the horse. As Liefs said I wish I owned it - I attacked the analysis of how he thought the horse could turn around the form from the Guineas which was highly questionable and largely speculative. Liefs has said the same and you like the post by the way - so don't shoot the messenger ;)
 

HeathComeBack

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I didn't attack the horse. As Liefs said I wish I owned it - I attacked the analysis of how he thought the horse could turn around the form from the Guineas which was highly questionable and largely speculative. Liefs has said the same and you like the post by the way - so don't shoot the messenger ;)
isnt all betting speculative? 10 to 1 chances win all the time. You have some psychotic need to bring the horse down. I see no need for it. I like Leifs post for hoping she would improve to win.
 
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I have to say that Amphitrite may not yet be up to the open class horses as we have not raced against the open class horses, however, Ringerdingding was only 2 lengths from Alizee, and was about the same behind MJ. Iluvparis you are entitled to your own opinion, but the horse was short of a run, the transfer from the weir stable knocked her back a week or 2. The new trainers also need time to find out what makes her tick, and Saturday was extremely hot, the horses were supposed to pick up there jockeys and go straight onto the track, that didn't happen on Saturday.

She was extremely agitated in the stalls before the race, which I have never seen from her, she is normally asleep the track again was rock hard and the jockey said her action was different, and Darmainin effectively IMO cheated. If all things go right I see no reason, why she can't turn the tables, MJ had the run of the race, suppose the she draws the wide gate in the mile or gets stuck between Balf's Choice and Urban Ruler as Foundry is going backwards with Moss'n'Dale.

As a Punter I think HC should be the fav, but I still rate Hartnel, Alizee, Mystic Journey and Amphitrite chances of winning I did rate Material man but it has done nothing since it's first up run.
 

FallingLiefs

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if you are upset that Amphitrite didn't perform in the oaks then he's right you should probably give up.

I have no problem people backing it, in theory may have been a sound bet. it was a bolt in or run last scenario. either she coped or she didn't. she didn't, she ran last. only up to the punter for making the incorrect call there.
 

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FallingLiefs

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I have to say that Amphitrite may not yet be up to the open class horses as we have not raced against the open class horses, however, Ringerdingding was only 2 lengths from Alizee, and was about the same behind MJ. Iluvparis you are entitled to your own opinion, but the horse was short of a run, the transfer from the weir stable knocked her back a week or 2. The new trainers also need time to find out what makes her tick, and Saturday was extremely hot, the horses were supposed to pick up there jockeys and go straight onto the track, that didn't happen on Saturday.

She was extremely agitated in the stalls before the race, which I have never seen from her, she is normally asleep the track again was rock hard and the jockey said her action was different, and Darmainin effectively IMO cheated. If all things go right I see no reason, why she can't turn the tables, MJ had the run of the race, suppose the she draws the wide gate in the mile or gets stuck between Balf's Choice and Urban Ruler as Foundry is going backwards with Moss'n'Dale.

As a Punter I think HC should be the fav, but I still rate Hartnel, Alizee, Mystic Journey and Amphitrite chances of winning I did rate Material man but it has done nothing since it's first up run.
look, good luck but there is no real reason to try convince people these 0.1% factors that were detrimental to your horses performance on the weekend will turn around and result in beating the winner. if they do, it's unlikely that Mystic Journey will be rolled because it gets hit with the whip 3 less times or its 3 degrees cooler it will be because MJ either has gone backward or Amphitrite spiked.

it was hot for every horse. every horse had to deal with multiple small negatives as they do every start. Amphitrite is a chance of winning on the weekend but in the same sentence you erase material man who last week had genuine more prominent excuses. I understand that excuses in the owning horses industry get fed back to you, but they're just that. excuses. there's no real need to debate the small details and just be happy that you have a horse rated around $10 for a $5 mil race.

The thing i try to tell people when they are in horses, it's watch every horse like it's your own and it's hard because in general it's the owners that wear blinkers not the horse. notice every difference in every single factor and you will come up with 9,000,000 factors per race and in the end decide that the small factors balance out.
 

HeathComeBack

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I have to say that Amphitrite may not yet be up to the open class horses as we have not raced against the open class horses, however, Ringerdingding was only 2 lengths from Alizee, and was about the same behind MJ. Iluvparis you are entitled to your own opinion, but the horse was short of a run, the transfer from the weir stable knocked her back a week or 2. The new trainers also need time to find out what makes her tick, and Saturday was extremely hot, the horses were supposed to pick up there jockeys and go straight onto the track, that didn't happen on Saturday.

She was extremely agitated in the stalls before the race, which I have never seen from her, she is normally asleep the track again was rock hard and the jockey said her action was different, and Darmainin effectively IMO cheated. If all things go right I see no reason, why she can't turn the tables, MJ had the run of the race, suppose the she draws the wide gate in the mile or gets stuck between Balf's Choice and Urban Ruler as Foundry is going backwards with Moss'n'Dale.

As a Punter I think HC should be the fav, but I still rate Hartnel, Alizee, Mystic Journey and Amphitrite chances of winning I did rate Material man but it has done nothing since it's first up run.
good luck dude. even if you are a Carlton supporter!
 

iluvparis

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isnt all betting speculative? 10 to 1 chances win all the time. You have some psychotic need to bring the horse down. I see no need for it. I like Leifs post for hoping she would improve to win.
You have lost the plot if you think me and Liefz have stated vastly different things - on what basis do I have a 'pyschotic' need to bring the horse down. All I've stated is there is little evidence to argue it can turn the form around from a race run just 3 days ago.
 

iluvparis

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Thread starter #390
if you are upset that Amphitrite didn't perform in the oaks then he's right you should probably give up.

I have no problem people backing it, in theory may have been a sound bet. it was a bolt in or run last scenario. either she coped or she didn't. she didn't, she ran last. only up to the punter for making the incorrect call there.
I'm not surprised AG has NFI as he is the worst troll I've ever seen but you do realise I'm 100% taking the piss with my Oaks refund joke right?
 

TBellicious

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I have to say that Amphitrite may not yet be up to the open class horses as we have not raced against the open class horses, however, Ringerdingding was only 2 lengths from Alizee, and was about the same behind MJ. Iluvparis you are entitled to your own opinion, but the horse was short of a run, the transfer from the weir stable knocked her back a week or 2. The new trainers also need time to find out what makes her tick, and Saturday was extremely hot, the horses were supposed to pick up there jockeys and go straight onto the track, that didn't happen on Saturday.

She was extremely agitated in the stalls before the race, which I have never seen from her, she is normally asleep the track again was rock hard and the jockey said her action was different, and Darmainin effectively IMO cheated. If all things go right I see no reason, why she can't turn the tables, MJ had the run of the race, suppose the she draws the wide gate in the mile or gets stuck between Balf's Choice and Urban Ruler as Foundry is going backwards with Moss'n'Dale.

As a Punter I think HC should be the fav, but I still rate Hartnel, Alizee, Mystic Journey and Amphitrite chances of winning I did rate Material man but it has done nothing since it's first up run.
Good luck. If you win how about a forum party? Paris can be on the do not let in list if you like.
 

HeathComeBack

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You have lost the plot if you think me and Liefz have stated vastly different things - on what basis do I have a 'pyschotic' need to bring the horse down. All I've stated is there is little evidence to argue it can turn the form around from a race run just 3 days ago.
There are excuses for horses all the time. Mcgoo gave a few, I think most wouldst sway my mind but the fitness one would. Believe it or not, horses aren't always primed to win on any certain day especially ones with long campaigns ahead of them. I am sure connections would have been happy with the run on Sat given they are running in a 5 mill race 2 weeks later. I am also sure a horse might be primed better for the ASM rather than the guineas given its preparation. I am not tipping it but i cant say it cannot win because if things go right it clearly can. If races were supposed to go the way you think all the time we would all be billionaires and we wouldnt have to run the race.
 

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There are excuses for horses all the time. Mcgoo gave a few, I think most wouldst sway my mind but the fitness one would. Believe it or not, horses aren't always primed to win on any certain day especially ones with long campaigns ahead of them. I am sure connections would have been happy with the run on Sat given they are running in a 5 mill race 2 weeks later. I am also sure a horse might be primed better for the ASM rather than the guineas given its preparation. I am not tipping it but i cant say it cannot win because if things go right it clearly can. If races were supposed to go the way you think all the time we would all be billionaires and we wouldnt have to run the race.
I'd be happy with the run too, except for the fact I have to again race against the winner who flogged me fair and square unless you for allow as Leifs said some 'excuses' which may have had some small % of impacting how the horses ran on the day. And whose to say MJ wasn't fully fit, or wasn't negatively impacted by the heat, or the track was too hard or too soft for her, etc etc

#noexcuses

On the bare form no reasonable form analyst could have Amphitrite turning the tables on MJ here. You can at least hope of course - but I like to deal in more factual form analysis.
 
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As i stated a number of times, I'm not saying she will turn the tables, I'm saying she had some excuses as to her performance. The change in her action does more for me than most of them, which nobody has spoken about. 2nd up last time in was a BM64 and she won but she was very flat. The following start she bolted in the G2 Edward Manifold. Instead of winning a BM64 2nd up she ran 3rd in a G1. When she won the Edward Manifold Williams said she was back to her normal self, in that when she runs she floats.

Again I'm not saying we can beat MJ but with blinkers and at her best I don't count her out, she will improve a lot, will MJ? also anybody that thinks hitting your horse 13 times before the 100m doesn't give an advantage has rocks in there head. Anyway boys, I will take my share of a horse that has $180,000 in it's last 2 starts and is Guaranteed to win another $90,000 in 10 days time.
 

frantelle

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Anyway boys, I will take my share of a horse that has $180,000 in it's last 2 starts and is Guaranteed to win another $90,000 in 10 days time.
Please try and engage in meaningful debate without swinging your d1ck around.

Not everyone is going to agree with your thoughts on your own horse. Owners can have the blinkers on in respect to their own horses
 

iluvparis

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also anybody that thinks hitting your horse 13 times before the 100m doesn't give an advantage has rocks in there head.
Willow could have flogged her 50 times in the straight and she wasn't beating MJ who exploded away from her. You make it sound like she was desperately unlucky when she was comprehensively beaten.
 

RobbyRoy

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Please try and engage in meaningful debate without swinging your d1ck around.

Not everyone is going to agree with your thoughts on your own horse. Owners can have the blinkers on in respect to their own horses
Alienating the board 101.

Amphitrite is a nice filly and deserves her place in the field, but I would argue MJ has as much if not more scope for improvement. The extra whips is a complete non-factor in my view; the changes in action and behaviour are noted but I'm still likely to skip over her pretty quickly when doing the form.
 

frantelle

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Alienating the board 101.

Amphitrite is a nice filly and deserves her place in the field, but I would argue MJ has as much if not more scope for improvement. The extra whips is a complete non-factor in my view; the changes in action and behaviour are noted but I'm still likely to skip over her pretty quickly when doing the form.
Agree.

MJ is with Acadia Queen and TSA in terms of the next wave of horses with enough potential to dominate in the years to come and win a handful of G1s. That's not saying other 3YOs aren't capable of knocking this lot off, but they'll need a sharp improvement to be in the mix with this lot + Alizee and dare I say it, HC
 

HeathComeBack

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As i stated a number of times, I'm not saying she will turn the tables, I'm saying she had some excuses as to her performance. The change in her action does more for me than most of them, which nobody has spoken about. 2nd up last time in was a BM64 and she won but she was very flat. The following start she bolted in the G2 Edward Manifold. Instead of winning a BM64 2nd up she ran 3rd in a G1. When she won the Edward Manifold Williams said she was back to her normal self, in that when she runs she floats.

Again I'm not saying we can beat MJ but with blinkers and at her best I don't count her out, she will improve a lot, will MJ? also anybody that thinks hitting your horse 13 times before the 100m doesn't give an advantage has rocks in there head. Anyway boys, I will take my share of a horse that has $180,000 in it's last 2 starts and is Guaranteed to win another $90,000 in 10 days time.
I was with you all the way til the whip thing. Whipping might get a neck out of a horse at most except for the 1 in a 100 that might need it as they are lazy. Overwhipping might even slow them down. The whip these days is a feather.. its nothing, a horse hardly feels it and i actually have no clue why jockeys even carry them (waits for the outrage)
 

HeathComeBack

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As i stated a number of times, I'm not saying she will turn the tables, I'm saying she had some excuses as to her performance. The change in her action does more for me than most of them, which nobody has spoken about. 2nd up last time in was a BM64 and she won but she was very flat. The following start she bolted in the G2 Edward Manifold. Instead of winning a BM64 2nd up she ran 3rd in a G1. When she won the Edward Manifold Williams said she was back to her normal self, in that when she runs she floats.

Again I'm not saying we can beat MJ but with blinkers and at her best I don't count her out, she will improve a lot, will MJ? also anybody that thinks hitting your horse 13 times before the 100m doesn't give an advantage has rocks in there head. Anyway boys, I will take my share of a horse that has $180,000 in it's last 2 starts and is Guaranteed to win another $90,000 in 10 days time.
I am glad punters like you are around, i get better odds for horses that are dismissed for these type of reasons
 
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