Play Nice The 'all things Carlton' mega-thread

[Gethelred]

Have you got a slither of evidence of this claim or just a story you made up in your head as to why you couldn't land Smith and Rocky? i dare say McGovern wouldn't be coming because he enjoys wearing blue.

The reason you can't land players is because Carlton have performed poorly for a very long time. Players want success.

If you are applauding SOS for not offering players more money than say other clubs then while thats great you'll never land anyone decent which is ringing true since he has taken over.

Okay.

Certainly I don't. What I've got is the fact that Tuohy left after having been offered less money than he felt he should've, Daisy choosing to forgo the bulk of his financial contract and to remove the trigger for this season, Murphy spending a significant amount of time thinking before resigning, us inquiring after pretty much every player that has been a FA or traded and is of the sort of player we might need (midfielders, mainly) early and making a reasonable offer, only to have it blown out of the water by North Melbourne (usually). Have you got a slither of evidence to dispute that claim? I'm curious how you think I'd know confidential contract information, nor why you think that I'd pick this particular bridge to die on.

And, had you bothered to actually read the post I was replying to, you would have seen that what I was saying was, based on the available evidence - which, granted, isn't much, but it's more than you've got - we don't seek to overpay for players, whether in picks or in contracts, which undercuts the notion that in future years our TPP will be unbalanced.

As for your last sentence, that is factually untrue. Geelong have made a case study of not overpaying with their 'no-one gets more than Selwood' scheme. Hawthorn managed to keep that list together and still get in more players, Lake and McEvoy. Collingwood won a flag off the back of bringing in two players - Ball and Jolly - on decent not exorbitant salaries. Richmond paid what Prestia and Caddy were worth, and won a flag as a consequence.

And, like I said in 'the uphill road to becoming a destination club', you can make the case that every single club in the AFL is a destination club based purely on the sheer amount of player movement, and both players and club's inability to see how close/far they are from success. What actually exists is every club's pitch to each player they seek, and the degree to which that pitch offers what that player considers attractive over other clubs.

We have had no issue getting in players, of the kind that we've sought (young, talented) and I've thoroughly more confidence in SOS's ability to manage a list than I do yours. Why are you even still here?

 

[Malifice]

They'd climb to mid table very quickly with a bunch of serviceable journeymen and remain there. Instead they're getting youth that have heaps of talent but perform worse because they're not as physically capable. Short term pain for long term gain.

Pretty much SOS' exact words on FC.

 

[footyfan1978]

Pretty much SOS' exact words on FC.

That one upset Kane Cornes...lol
He wanted a royal commission into that.

 

[watchdog1987]

Okay.

Certainly I don't. What I've got is the fact that Tuohy left after having been offered less money than he felt he should've, Daisy choosing to forgo the bulk of his financial contract and to remove the trigger for this season, Murphy spending a significant amount of time thinking before resigning, us inquiring after pretty much every player that has been a FA or traded and is of the sort of player we might need (midfielders, mainly) early and making a reasonable offer, only to have it blown out of the water by North Melbourne (usually). Have you got a slither of evidence to dispute that claim? I'm curious how you think I'd know confidential contract information, nor why you think that I'd pick this particular bridge to die on.

And, had you bothered to actually read the post I was replying to, you would have seen that what I was saying was, based on the available evidence - which, granted, isn't much, but it's more than you've got - we don't seek to overpay for players, whether in picks or in contracts, which undercuts the notion that in future years our TPP will be unbalanced.

As for your last sentence, that is factually untrue. Geelong have made a case study of not overpaying with their 'no-one gets more than Selwood' scheme. Hawthorn managed to keep that list together and still get in more players, Lake and McEvoy. Collingwood won a flag off the back of bringing in two players - Ball and Jolly - on decent not exorbitant salaries. Richmond paid what Prestia and Caddy were worth, and won a flag as a consequence.

And, like I said in 'the uphill road to becoming a destination club', you can make the case that every single club in the AFL is a destination club based purely on the sheer amount of player movement, and both players and club's inability to see how close/far they are from success. What actually exists is every club's pitch to each player they seek, and the degree to which that pitch offers what that player considers attractive over other clubs.

We have had no issue getting in players, of the kind that we've sought (young, talented) and I've thoroughly more confidence in SOS's ability to manage a list than I do yours. Why are you even still here?

We have had no issue getting in players, of the kind that we've sought (young, talented)?

And i would argue the players you have been able to get in are the sort who are unable to get consistent games at other sides grabbing the opportunity for AFL games at Carlton.

This includes Marchbank, plowman, keenedy ect who struggled for senior games at GWS .

 

[Malifice]

This includes Marchbank, plowman, keenedy ect who struggled for senior games at GWS .

All former 1st round picks, all of whom will make it at AFL level, and all of whom were taken by us with 2nd rounders (picks that at best have an approximately 35 percent chance of making it at AFL level if taken at the draft).

Remember the huge hole we had in the list? Even if we traded out everyone we had over 23 for extra picks, and nailed all those picks (magically) on a scale hereto unheard of we'd still have a massive hole in the list.

And worse than that, we'd have no experience around those kids.

SOS got in extra early picks (Yarran, Gibbs, Tuohy, Henderson, Menzel), plus the picks we had, and also had to find extra talent and depth elsewhere. We managed to get in Marchbank, Plowman, Kennedy, Pickett, Lamb and Phillips (almost all former 1st round picks and the first three certain 100 gamers for us) for essentially 3 x 2nd rounders.

We've kept a skeleton crew of senior talent around while furiously going at the draft hard, getting in extra picks, and adding extra 1st rounders and good youth from elsewhere without overpaying.

We'll take a more balanced approach this year and next.

 

[La Dispute]

This includes Marchbank, plowman, keenedy ect who struggled for senior games at GWS .

Marchbank and Plowman spent a lot of time injured at GWS, while Kennedy played 16 games in 2017.

Lucky for us they did or we'd be paying a premium for them.

 

[jooce8891]

When Bolton coached them to 7 wins in their first season surely they would have been better off building on that base. They could have at least attracted people to the club. Unfortunately they have been led down another path and have become awful.

They weren’t forced to completely clean out and start from nothing. As said Bolton coached 13 wins in his first 2 seasons.

Now they are in a hole no one wants to join their club and makes in hard to hold players

re-signing cripps, curnow, dow, tdk, kerr, LOB, polson, murphy and others says otherwise, but yes attracting players is probably going to be difficult

 

[Rich01]

Hope SOS is ballsy enough to pony up a quality pick for a quality player this year.

Sounds like he wanted to do so in 2015 offering 12 for Tomlinson and this year McGovern is the man.

The Hawks and Pies have shown that sometimes you have to give quality to get quality and an O’Meara, Mitchell, Treloar type would be the perfect place to not only build a base around, but help to entice other talent to the club.

That said, Pies turned Beams into gold with DeGoey, Greenwood and Crisp. Hopefully he can do the same with the Gibbs chips he was handed.

He’s played around the edges and drafted reasonably well with high draft picks, but moneyball can only take you so far.

 

[watchdog1987]

re-signing cripps, curnow, dow, tdk, kerr, LOB, polson, murphy and others says otherwise, but yes attracting players is probably going to be difficult

Says otherwise? Well i mean some players are going to re-sign. Your not going to be left playing blokes off the street.

 

[Malifice]

Says otherwise? Well i mean some players are going to re-sign. Your not going to be left playing blokes off the street.

Well... your problem being is that everyone has already resigned. On heavily frontloaded deals. Cripps, Curnow, every player taken in the draft the past 3 years (SPS, Dow, Fisher, OBrien) etc. All locked in on multi year long term deals.

We had to do something with our salary cap. We have a handful of vets aged 29+ with rapidly declining from (Murphy, Kruezer, Thomas, Rowe etc), nothing in the 24-28 age bracket, and then the bulk of our list (Dow, OBrien, SPS, Fisher, Curnow, McKay, Weitering, Williamson, Macreadie, Marchbank, Kennedy, Plowman, Polson, Pickett etc) in the 18-21 range. Cripps turned 23 this year, Docherty is 24.

Who exactly are we paying outside of Cripps, Docherty, Simpson and Curnow?

What we did is we used our cap space to lock away everyone in that 18-21 age bracket, plus Cripps on frontloaded long term deals; they're almost all contracted to 2020/21.

Frontloading those deals last year and this year frees up several million dollars next season and the year after (which we'll use to put massive frontloaded contracts forward to lure trades and F/A during this years trade period, and next years trade period).

Im hearing reasonably strong mail that were heavily into Shiel, McGovern and Setterfield this year. Adding those three, plus pick 1 (Walsh) a cheap FA in Fasolo, and another later pick or two or mature aged rookie and Im starting to get very bullish on the list.

Presuming it happens:

Mids: Cripps, Shiel, Walsh, Dow, SPS, Fisher, Setterfield, Kennedy, Cuningham (E Curnow, Murphy)
Defenders: Weitering, Docherty, Marchbank, Plowman, Byrne, MacReadie, Williamson, OBrien, Schumaker (Simpson, Rowe, Jones, Thomas)
Forwards: Curnow, McKay, McGovern, Fasolo, Pickett, Polson, Lamb, JSOS (Wright, Casboult)
Rucks: DeKoening (Kruezer, Phillips, Lobbe)

Give that side 2 more pre-seasons, and a quality F/A or trade next year and we should see some serious movement up the ladder in 2020.

 

[Worm4]

Says otherwise? Well i mean some players are going to re-sign. Your not going to be left playing blokes off the street.

You are worse than my misses. Always have to have the last word on anything.
Go away ( please )

 

[Malifice]

Hope SOS is ballsy enough to pony up a quality pick for a quality player this year.

Jungle drums are our future 1st (1-5 ish?) and PP (12?) will be on the table, and are likely to go if any truth to the McGovern, Shiel and Setterfield rumors are true. We'll also have at least 2 seconds, and maybe a third if Casboult gets traded (I'm hearing GCS maybe as a stop gap for the loss of Lynch).

Pick 1 is also in play, but it gets kept unless it's some sort of insane bullshit offer IMO. Adelaide desperate for Lukosious for example.

Reckon the Crows will have better luck going to the Suns and offering some combo of 8, 12 (our PP, MCgovern), 17 (Melbourne), 22 (our 2nd), future 1st for Pick 2.

 

[Buzzasto DaSilva]

Jungle drums are our future 1st (1-5 ish?) and PP (12?) will be on the table, and are likely to go if any truth to the McGovern, Shiel and Setterfield rumors are true. We'll also have at least 2 seconds, and maybe a third if Casboult gets traded (I'm hearing GCS maybe as a stop gap for the loss of Lynch).

Pick 1 is also in play, but it gets kept unless it's some sort of insane bullshit offer IMO. Adelaide desperate for Lukosious for example.

Reckon the Crows will have better luck going to the Suns and offering some combo of 8, 12 (our PP, MCgovern), 17 (Melbourne), 22 (our 2nd), future 1st for Pick 2.

Malifice, I ask this in good faith and don't want to be seen as trolling or attacking.

If the rebuild is on track (which you've given a pretty good evidence as to why it is, my view has definitely developed over time), why are Carlton applying for a priority pick?

If it was the plan to be where you guys are today by going to the bottom and building from the ground up, then surely there is no rationale to be getting extra assistance, if this situation was by design?

Thanks for all the detail you put into your posts, I have genuinely enjoyed learning from the bleachers of this these over the last couple of months.

 

[Malifice]

This might explain a bit about what we're doing:

Carlton entered the league as one of the youngest and least experienced sides of the season. They were the fifth-youngest team in terms of the average age of the playing list, and equal-fifth least experienced (tied with the Western Bulldogs). The Blues have 24 players on their list who are 23 or younger, which is slightly more than the league average of 22.

You can tell they’ve invested heavily in the past three drafts though, as 19 of those players are 21 or younger – way up on the league average of 14.

The Blues pumped 36 per cent of all games this year into their players aged 21 or younger, and just shy of 49 per cent of games were invested into players 23 or younger. The league averages for those categories are 19 and 38 per cent respectively, so it’s clear the Blues are making an above-average investment in their youth at the selection table. No other team in the league put as many games into players 21 or younger

And this stat is particularly damning:

The Blues saw just 3 AFLCA votes awarded all year to their players aged between 24 and 28, by an enormous margin the worst count in the league where the average list had 212 votes awarded to players in this age bracket.

We had a grand total of 3 AFLCA votes handed out to players aged 24-28 (where the bulk of the votes should be coming). The AFL average for 24-28 year olds combined is 212!

That shows you the size of that list hole that was caused by those failed drafts from 2007-2014 (where we should have picked up our 24-28 year olds). That's insane.

https://www.theroar.com.au/2018/08/27/patience-not-priority-picks-cure-carltons-blues/

 

[Malifice]

If the rebuild is on track (which you've given a pretty good evidence as to why it is, my view has definitely developed over time), why are Carlton applying for a priority pick?

Because we still have big holes in the list that need filling (in the 22-26 age bracket). See my post above. We need one to trade it for said senior experience.

We dont want to take it to the draft.

Without some senior experience next year, we're ****ed again (fielding a side next year largely comprised of 18-22 year olds). They'll get smashed again and thats bad for development of the kids we do have.

If it was the plan to be where you guys are today by going to the bottom and building from the ground up, then surely there is no rationale to be getting extra assistance, if this situation was by design?

Its not by design. Our hands were tied at the end of 2015 due to our diabolical drafting from 2007-2014.

We havent set about to be s**t; we made ourselves s**t when we screwed up those drafts. We're just copping our medicine and trying to right the ship going forwards.

It was either that, or draft for mediocrity for a few years and then fall off the cliff.

Of the players that have left over the past 3 years, we didnt push Gibbs out (he wanted to go, and we werent happy about it and even held onto him for an extra year). We didnt push Henderson out (he was uncontracted and walked out). Yarran was a meth head, so we couldnt get rid of him fast enough. Bell and Menzel were no great losses (both will be out of the AFL this year).

Tuohy you could argue we lowballed, but we have his position covered with Docherty, Byrne and others. Ultimately we had a contract in front of him, but he was uncontracted and chose to go to the Cats.

We actually did pretty well to get what we could out of that. 3 extra 1sts and 3 extra 2nds. Plus unlocking Marchbank, Plowman, Kennedy and Pickett.

We looked to replace Gibbs with Rockliff last year (to protect the kids), but he chose the Power.

If we get a PP this year (pick 12?), it goes to the Crows for McGovern (and this helps tidy up a problem the AFL, AFLPA and Crows are having due to that Collective Minds fiasco). It lands the Crows extra ammo to land Lukosious. It gets us a mature aged player in that 22-26 age bracket that helps us out.

We'll look to get in Shiel and Setterfield, plus Faslolo as a F/A as well (21-26 year olds). Walsh is likely the one we take at Pick 1.

 

[TheShardMan]

Question, so what would sos and bolton have to deliver next year for fans to turn on them? Or is youth and rebuild a good enough excuse for another season or 2 of minimal wins?

 

[Malifice]

Question, so what would sos and bolton have to deliver next year for fans to turn on them? Or is youth and rebuild a good enough excuse for another season or 2 of minimal wins?

When the kids are at that 4+ pre-season/ 100+ game mark (which they all hit at roughly the same time) and there is no improvement, then questions are asked.

Being realistic, 6-8 wins is about right next year, even assuming Shiel and co come over.

2020 is make or break for Bolton. We should be tracking upwards from this point.

 

[Gethelred]

We have had no issue getting in players, of the kind that we've sought (young, talented)?

And i would argue the players you have been able to get in are the sort who are unable to get consistent games at other sides grabbing the opportunity for AFL games at Carlton.

This includes Marchbank, plowman, keenedy ect who struggled for senior games at GWS .

... and your argument is what?

That these players are s**t? Or that we shouldn't have traded for them, because they were not getting consistent games at GWS? You realise that there are an awful lot of footballers who, if you transferred them to GWS over the period that we traded in Plow, Marchbank and Kennedy, would also have struggled to get a game.

Says otherwise? Well i mean some players are going to re-sign. Your not going to be left playing blokes off the street.

So which is it? Are we not able to keep our players, as said by you multiple times earlier in this thread, or are we able to sign the players we want?

You can't have it both ways.

 

[Malifice]

So which is it? Are we not able to keep our players, as said by you multiple times earlier in this thread, or are we able to sign the players we want?

Contracts:

2023
Charlie Curnow

2022
Paddy Dow

2021
Patrick Cripps
Zac Fisher
Tom De Koning
Lochie O’Brien
Sam Petrevski-Seton
Jacob Weitering

2020
Sam Docherty
Harrison Macreadie
Marc Murphy
Lachie Plowman
Cameron Polson
Tom Williamson

2019
Ciaran Byrne
Levi Casboult
David Cuningham
Ed Curnow
Jarrod Garlett
Liam Jones
Patrick Kerr
Matthew Kreuzer
Matthew Lobbe
Caleb Marchbank
Cillian McDaid
Harry McKay
Andrew Phillips
Angus Schumacher
Jack Silvagni

Out of contract
Jesse Glass-McCasker
Nick Graham
Sam Kerridge
Jed Lamb
Kym LeBois
Aaron Mullett
Cameron O’Shea
Sam Rowe
Matt Shaw
Alex Silvagni
Kade Simpson
Dale Thomas
Matthew Wright

Unconfirmed
Darcy Lang
Jarrod Pickett
Matthew Kennedy

If there is one thing I'm worried about, it's not contracts. We've got everyone signed for long term deals, and plenty of cap space spare.

 

[Buzzasto DaSilva]

Contracts:

2023
Charlie Curnow

2022
Paddy Dow

2021
Patrick Cripps
Zac Fisher
Tom De Koning
Lochie O’Brien
Sam Petrevski-Seton
Jacob Weitering

2020
Sam Docherty
Harrison Macreadie
Marc Murphy
Lachie Plowman
Cameron Polson
Tom Williamson

2019
Ciaran Byrne
Levi Casboult
David Cuningham
Ed Curnow
Jarrod Garlett
Liam Jones
Patrick Kerr
Matthew Kreuzer
Matthew Lobbe
Caleb Marchbank
Cillian McDaid
Harry McKay
Andrew Phillips
Angus Schumacher
Jack Silvagni

Out of contract
Jesse Glass-McCasker
Nick Graham
Sam Kerridge
Jed Lamb
Kym LeBois
Aaron Mullett
Cameron O’Shea
Sam Rowe
Matt Shaw
Alex Silvagni
Kade Simpson
Dale Thomas
Matthew Wright

Unconfirmed
Darcy Lang
Jarrod Pickett
Matthew Kennedy

If there is one thing I'm worried about, it's not contracts. We've got everyone signed for long term deals, and plenty of cap space spare.

Your research and knowledge is first class.

Because we still have big holes in the list that need filling (in the 22-26 age bracket). See my post above. We need one to trade it for said senior experience.

We dont want to take it to the draft.

Without some senior experience next year, we're ****** again (fielding a side next year largely comprised of 18-22 year olds). They'll get smashed again and thats bad for development of the kids we do have.



Its not by design. Our hands were tied at the end of 2015 due to our diabolical drafting from 2007-2014.

We havent set about to be s**t; we made ourselves s**t when we screwed up those drafts. We're just copping our medicine and trying to right the ship going forwards.

It was either that, or draft for mediocrity for a few years and then fall off the cliff.

Of the players that have left over the past 3 years, we didnt push Gibbs out (he wanted to go, and we werent happy about it and even held onto him for an extra year). We didnt push Henderson out (he was uncontracted and walked out). Yarran was a meth head, so we couldnt get rid of him fast enough. Bell and Menzel were no great losses (both will be out of the AFL this year).

Tuohy you could argue we lowballed, but we have his position covered with Docherty, Byrne and others. Ultimately we had a contract in front of him, but he was uncontracted and chose to go to the Cats.

We actually did pretty well to get what we could out of that. 3 extra 1sts and 3 extra 2nds. Plus unlocking Marchbank, Plowman, Kennedy and Pickett.

We looked to replace Gibbs with Rockliff last year (to protect the kids), but he chose the Power.

If we get a PP this year (pick 12?), it goes to the Crows for McGovern (and this helps tidy up a problem the AFL, AFLPA and Crows are having due to that Collective Minds fiasco). It lands the Crows extra ammo to land Lukosious. It gets us a mature aged player in that 22-26 age bracket that helps us out.

We'll look to get in Shiel and Setterfield, plus Faslolo as a F/A as well (21-26 year olds). Walsh is likely the one we take at Pick 1.

Is Fasolo the right option though? He's been poor for a couple of seasons now, wouldn't the club be better off getting a few very good state league players like Kreuger, Schiller, Baulderstone, Nelson, Deluca, Partington- who are absolutely desperate to prove themselves over Fasolo who is a very questionable character (I have sources who are close to him at Collingwood and have no reason not to believe them) and would add little at this late stage of his career. Setterfield would be an unbelievable addition, he's our best prospect since Kelly and we would be devastated to lose him.

I think Carlton are moving in the right direction, and I think spending cash on McGovern if he's going to cost around pick 10-15 is a great option, I just hope they learn from the early mistakes of playing too many depth players when it was clear they wouldn't make it, rather than giving kids more opportunities (I know Gowers had a big attitude change after he left but it would have been great to see him get an opportunity over Liam Sumner.

It's obvious that Bolton will get more time, but as a supporter with an excellent knowledge of the process, do you think he's the right man Malifice ?

 

[Malifice]

Is Fasolo the right option though? He's been poor for a couple of seasons now, wouldn't the club be better off getting a few very good state league players like Kreuger, Schiller, Baulderstone, Nelson, Deluca, Partington- who are absolutely desperate to prove themselves over Fasolo who is a very questionable character (I have sources who are close to him at Collingwood and have no reason not to believe them) and would add little at this late stage of his career. Setterfield would be an unbelievable addition, he's our best prospect since Kelly and we would be devastated to lose him.

Im hearing Fasolo is costing 300k. So for 3 years, up front it's worth a chance.

As F/A we know we can get him. Mature agers have to get through the draft though (unless they're previously been listed when you can pick them up as a DFA).

I think Carlton are moving in the right direction, and I think spending cash on McGovern if he's going to cost around pick 10-15 is a great option, I just hope they learn from the early mistakes of playing too many depth players when it was clear they wouldn't make it, rather than giving kids more opportunities (I know Gowers had a big attitude change after he left but it would have been great to see him get an opportunity over Liam Sumner.

Without the depth players (that cost nothing) we would have no harder older blokes to play the kids around. I understand why it was done; without them we would have been even more ****ed than we were, having to play Pickett, Schumaker and promoting JGM (who we just delisted) into the seniors as defenders (where they would have been slaughtered).

It's obvious that Bolton will get more time, but as a supporter with an excellent knowledge of the process, do you think he's the right man Malifice ?

I'm hearing morale is high at the club despite the results, so he has my support. Tough gig also (pretty hard to judge him against the side we're given him, and the injuries we copped).

The concern was we lost our defensive edge this year (we were good at last year), without adding anything offensively.

He gets 2 more years to turn it around. I want to see an improvement overall over that time.

 

[TheShardMan]

I reckon theres a bit of quality in this years recycled players. Fasolo, barlow, lonie, h-smith, blair, miles, bugg etc. Those are significant upgrades on shaw, o'shea, mullet. Bring in 3 or 4 or those and the team will be more competitive.

Surely bolton and sos wont have a job if the blues finish on 2-3 wins next year?

 

[WetCrow1991]

Probably 6-10 years away from contending at best.

Most likely to just end up with bottom of the top 8 finishes.

 

[Worm4]

Probably 6-10 years away from contending at best.

Most likely to just end up with bottom of the top 8 finishes.

We are a very patient lot us Carlton supporters, but thanks for your input all the same

 

[No SPIN]

Someone please help me understand this push for compo.

Last year Carlton was on the way back, and no talk of compo.
This year their fans suggest injuries are the reason for another wooden spoon - which is fair enough.
So injuries are effectively the reason for compo NOT an competitive list.

That’s just wrong.

Carlton fans can’t have it both ways.
You can’t on the one hand say we have a good list but injuries crueled our season, and then in the same breadth push for compo.
Compo is only justified if your full list was so poor that you finished bottom.

So please make up your minds.