Play Nice The 'all things Carlton' mega-thread

Should Carlton receive a priority pick?

  • Yes

    Votes: 70 19.1%
  • No

    Votes: 296 80.9%

  • Total voters
    366
  • Poll closed .

btdg

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I'm not criticising SOS at all. I have no problem with his strategy. My point is it's impossible to say how going the more traditional rout to aquiring talent would have worked out .
In a long post on the Carlton board, I attempted to model this question. The method was basically - imagine if instead of trading out players for picks we KEPT the players we could (ie; Henderson had walked out, but we could have kept Touhy). And then, we instead a) traded in the best available player, defined as the best player who moved to a Melbourne Club and b) signed a mid-tier free agent. Then we drafted along similar lines with whatever was available, and assume similar progress from all players drafted, traded, delisted, etc. I also excluded Tom Mitchell just because he is an outlier.

The upshot of what was a fairly long analysis - a summary of what we COULD have instead (assuming we could have actually GOT the players we wanted). Take the current list and:

ADD: Jake Carlisle, Dion Prestia, Zach Touhy, Josh Green, Jake Lever, Bryce Gibbs,
SUBTRACT: (compared to current list): Jacob Weitering, Sam Kerridge, Caleb Marchbank, Jarrod Pickett, Sam Petrevski-Seton, Harrison Macreadie, Paddy Dow, Lochie O'Brien as well as our 2018 first round pick and the Bulldogs 2018 second round pick.

Assuming the same injuries (ie; Docherty knee) the team that played last saturday would be:

B: Plowman, Carlisle, Touhy
Hb: Cuningham, Lever, Simpson
C: Fisher, Cripps, Thomas
Hf: Prestia, C. Curnow, Wright
F: JSOS, Casboult, Josh Green
Foll: Kreuzer, Gibbs, E Curnow
Bench: Kennedy, Jones, JSOS, Graham

My reflection afterwards - that team is certainly more competitive, particularly in defence. But that forward line isn't good enough (and the depth not listed there is worse than our current depth) and the team probably finishes 10-15th. Plus we'd be a lot worse off for the future (although that would be a much better team to add T Lynch to as a FA than the current team).
 

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JohnnyFontane90

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In a long post on the Carlton board, I attempted to model this question. The method was basically - imagine if instead of trading out players for picks we KEPT the players we could (ie; Henderson had walked out, but we could have kept Touhy). And then, we instead a) traded in the best available player, defined as the best player who moved to a Melbourne Club and b) signed a mid-tier free agent. Then we drafted along similar lines with whatever was available, and assume similar progress from all players drafted, traded, delisted, etc. I also excluded Tom Mitchell just because he is an outlier.

The upshot of what was a fairly long analysis - a summary of what we COULD have instead (assuming we could have actually GOT the players we wanted). Take the current list and:

ADD: Jake Carlisle, Dion Prestia, Zach Touhy, Josh Green, Jake Lever, Bryce Gibbs,
SUBTRACT: (compared to current list): Jacob Weitering, Sam Kerridge, Caleb Marchbank, Jarrod Pickett, Sam Petrevski-Seton, Harrison Macreadie, Paddy Dow, Lochie O'Brien as well as our 2018 first round pick and the Bulldogs 2018 second round pick.

Assuming the same injuries (ie; Docherty knee) the team that played last saturday would be:

B: Plowman, Carlisle, Touhy
Hb: Cuningham, Lever, Simpson
C: Fisher, Cripps, Thomas
Hf: Prestia, C. Curnow, Wright
F: JSOS, Casboult, Josh Green
Foll: Kreuzer, Gibbs, E Curnow
Bench: Kennedy, Jones, JSOS, Graham

My reflection afterwards - that team is certainly more competitive, particularly in defence. But that forward line isn't good enough (and the depth not listed there is worse than our current depth) and the team probably finishes 10-15th. Plus we'd be a lot worse off for the future (although that would be a much better team to add T Lynch to as a FA than the current team).
I'd honestly rather a wooden spoon than support a team that Carlisle plays for
 

Blue1980

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The only A grade potential player he’s drafted at Carlton is Curnow and he was desperate to trade that pick for Tomlinson as most Blues fans have forgotten.
So none of Weitering, SPS, Dow or even O’Brien can get there.

The oldest of these guys is 20, and the first 2 have been excellent at times already in their careers.
 

Blue1980

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But youd also have to take into account giving up correct value for the high value players .



Yeah I think that is likely as well but it isn't fact. It is possible that Carlton would have been better off just taking late picks in the draft and giving up fair value or just not trading for the ex GWS crew.
So giving up pick 5 in the draft instead of picks 45 and 57 for Marchbank? So no SPS, but at very best we could of landed Mitch Hannan, Lewis Young or Jack Graham.

Other guys who look good post 45 in the 16 draft are macreadie and Williamson, who we actually got.

That would of meant going into that draft with 6 selections from pick 45 onwards. I think I’d rather have taken Pickett and Palmer off their hands.

Another issue with using late draft picks is you are locked into 2 year contracts, so even if you see their garbage after a year you either have to pay them out or keep them for another year.

Overall, we have managed to get some very good talent from GWS and hold on to all our high picks, I can’t see how that’s a fail.

More questionable is the recruitment of hacks in Mullett, O’Shea and Shaw. Previously smelts and Gorringe were rather baffling too

Not sure what the logic was in recruiting 3 spud mature half backs when if anything we needed some stop gap bigger bodied midfielders.
 

LordLucifer

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Way too early to make any accurate call about SOS's reign as List Manager at Carlton. From my perspective, he is trying to renovate & panel-beat a playing list that was near on deplorable into Top 4 contenders which will take some time. Due to the constraints of the draft & salary cap, there are no shortcuts any more so each year we will get one step closer to our goal.

I agree that some of the players he has taken were not much chop but they had way more potential upside & a better attitude than the players they were replacing. Changes needed to be made and there was no nice or easy way to do it.

No club nails every draft pick and trade deal so I don't see why we are being held up to scrutiny right now, I haven't been this positive about the club for something like 20-years.

The '66-game rebuild' which ends this year after the draft & trade periods was the initial phase that the club 'sold' to the members & supporters. I think it will take another one or two draft & trade periods before we really have a solid foundation on the playing list.

The other thing is that most clubs enter into rebuilds but they have a core of quality senior players to work around, we have had near nothing from which to rely on which means it is going to take longer than expected.

We will be back in the not too distant future and you can bet your nuts that I will be bumping this thread & calling out those who have danced on our current grave.
 
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Snake_Baker

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Carlton have finished 8th, 13th, last, 14th and 16th in the last 5 years.

These are players that Carlton haven't been allowed to draft:

Isaac Heeney, Callum Mills, Harris Andrews, Jeremy Finlayson, Jacob Hopper, Matthew Kennedy, Eric Hipwood, Harrison Himmelberg, Ben Keays, Will Setterfield, Jack Bowes, Harry Perryman and Connor Ballendan.

Think about it for a minute.
 

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So none of Weitering, SPS, Dow or even O’Brien can get there.

The oldest of these guys is 20, and the first 2 have been excellent at times already in their careers.
Haven’t seen O’Brien or Dow enough to comment but only a looney would say that SPS and Weitering don’t have A grade Talent
 

SickQwon

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Really excited about the youth we have on our list at the moment. It's the chasm that is our 24-28 year range.
A lot to like in the under 23 bracket, if we can mould these players into their potential, we'd have one of the best 24-28 year range in the comp. The cogs are turning, the club just needs to be patient and keep building from the draft.
 

Mr.X

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It's all under control, the rebuild is moving along.

You're just a bunch of doomsayers.. gotta hit rock bottom before it turns around :thumbsu:
 

Blue1980

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It's all under control, the rebuild is moving along.

You're just a bunch of doomsayers.. gotta hit rock bottom before it turns around :thumbsu:
The darkest dark is the dark before the dawn?

We just have to keep working and doing things properly. We aren’t special, we have to work hard to create a good playing list, develop them and club culture like everyone else who’s been successful in the AFL has.
 

chunkylover53

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It's all under control, the rebuild is moving along.

You're just a bunch of doomsayers.. gotta hit rock bottom before it turns around :thumbsu:
You think?

Signing Cam O'Shea to a 2 year deal and failing to get any decent 24-29 yr olds to protects the kids seems like a pretty dumb move for a rebuild. I fear due to not addressing any of this the kids will get belted every week which will result in us doing a Melbourne and going full rebuild of a rebuild after all our players are destroyed/request trades.
 

Buzzasto DaSilva

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It's all under control, the rebuild is moving along.

You're just a bunch of doomsayers.. gotta hit rock bottom before it turns around :thumbsu:
When have Sydney, Adelaide, Geelong or the Western Bulldogs hit rock bottom recently? Expecting that just bottoming out and starting again will lead to success is a dangerous precedent.
 
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