You seem to have followed this whole thing pretty closely. Can you tell me why are the AFL negotiating a deal that Essendon won't agree to? Why don't they just say, Points gone, 1st 2 picks of '13 & '14 gone and a fine. Done.
Just IMO, but there is a lot of both sides thinking they will blink, but neither has to date.
I personally think the AFL strategy is to play the Hird card. Make him bigger than the club, and build the pressure on Little to sack him and agree to the deal.
The AFL have gone in very hard on this, and expectations on the sanction are huge. People now think a $2m fine is small, yet its more than double the previous biggest fine in AFL history (and 7 times larger than the recent Crows fine). Similar with the penalties. Six months ago taking points was unprecedented and huge, now its a nothing penalty. This has always been about perception, and the AFL cannot be perceived to be soft.
Don't discount the effect the MFC deal is having on this either. Their "not guilty, but you're fined" outcome was a farce and everyone knew it. The massive roadblock on the current discussion is the wording of the charge. EFC want no fault charges, so they take the hit, but dont get labelled as deliberate drug cheats. I suspect the AFL is inclined to agree with this, but after Melbourne they don't want to do it again.
Just personal guesswork, but while I'm hoping, I cant see a deal being done. If the AFL line in the sand is a drug cheat charge, points, picks, and a lifetime ban for Hird (apparently they are wanting EFC to be banned from re-hiring him), EFC are stupid if they don't take it to court. A worse case charge isn't much worse than this, and a court challenge may get some of the charges tossed (due to the way the info was collected).