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The big issue to me is not really what the AFL do. It is what ASADA and the players do.
I can't see the players avoiding bans. If they are banned they have a strong case to sue for loss of earnings - say $8-$9 million per year. Standard two year ban = $17 mil. Add in punitive damages and we are looking at tens of millions of dollars potentially.
Add in the EFC having to rely on a state league squad for 2 years, they lose current players due to contracts being breached and running out over the next 2 years, and poor performance hampering income --> massive cash injections required to keep the EFC alive.
Given that there appears to be overwhelming evidence of banned drugs being given in a poorly controlled manner, with some drugs injected being unkown, how the club can get off I don't know. The current penalties are about the EFC here and now. They will weaken but not do any long term damage to the club. That is, the EFC will overcome the financial and player penalties in 10 years. But if 38 guys get suspensions (some retired or left club - but still could sue) then it could be about 10 times bigger, or more. I don't know but maybe the EFC lawyers are trying to avoid this by not getting a formal guilty verdict.
However, if it is the worst case then will the AFL prop the EFC up? Or let them go to save the $?
I can't see the players avoiding bans. If they are banned they have a strong case to sue for loss of earnings - say $8-$9 million per year. Standard two year ban = $17 mil. Add in punitive damages and we are looking at tens of millions of dollars potentially.
Add in the EFC having to rely on a state league squad for 2 years, they lose current players due to contracts being breached and running out over the next 2 years, and poor performance hampering income --> massive cash injections required to keep the EFC alive.
Given that there appears to be overwhelming evidence of banned drugs being given in a poorly controlled manner, with some drugs injected being unkown, how the club can get off I don't know. The current penalties are about the EFC here and now. They will weaken but not do any long term damage to the club. That is, the EFC will overcome the financial and player penalties in 10 years. But if 38 guys get suspensions (some retired or left club - but still could sue) then it could be about 10 times bigger, or more. I don't know but maybe the EFC lawyers are trying to avoid this by not getting a formal guilty verdict.
However, if it is the worst case then will the AFL prop the EFC up? Or let them go to save the $?
Who knows. Your scenarios are exactly why the AFL case should have been heard after the ASADA one. We could be revisiting this cluster %$^# again in Jan/Feb even if a plea is agreed to.

