The Association Football AFL Thread 2.0

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Art Vandelay_

TheBrownDog
Oct 28, 2012
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Saw on reddit someone has done the % for Week 1 of finals.

1. Geelong, win or lose: Possible opponents in QF: Collingwood (35%) Fremantle (25%) Sydney (17%) Melbourne (13%) Brisbane (10%)
2. Sydney. Win and finish 2nd or 3rd. Need to keep the margin above Melbourne's, with 9 point buffer. Play the winner of Brisbane vs Melbourne. Lose: likely 4th, could be 5th or 3rd or even 6th. Play Geelong (45%) or Melb/Bris W (18%) in QF; Bulldogs (16%) or Carlton (15%) in EF
3. Melbourne. Win to finish 3rd, or 2nd if they surpass Sydney. 71% to play Sydney, 43% SCG + 28% MCG. 20% Collingwood, 8% Fremantle. Draw is enough for double chance. Lose: Coll or Freo knock Demons out of top 4 with a win. EF vs Rich (32%), Carl (27%), WB (15%). QF vs Geel 24%
4. Brisbane. Need Sydney to lose to grab a home QF (or beat their margin by 10+ goals). Win: Syd (69%), Coll (20%) , Freo (8%) , Melb (2%) Draw: drop to 5th if Syd & Coll win Lose: Home EF vs Rich (35%), Carl (28%), WB (15%) or away QF vs Geel (22%)
5. Collingwood. Bris draw with Melb and Sydney loss, for 2nd place. More realistic if win: Geel 63%, Bris 19%, Melb 17% Draw: Keep the double chance if Syd or Freo lose If lose, they will play either Rich (51%) or Carl (49%)
6. Fremantle. Win: Need Sydney or Collingwood to lose to earn QF. 48% QF vs Geel, 9% Bris, 8% Melb. Otherwise EF vs WB (20%) or Carl (15%) Draw is not enough, finish 5th / 6th. Lose and finish 6th, to host Richmond (88%) or Carlton (12%)
7. Richmond win or draw: 7th. Freo 48% , Coll 23% , Melb 14% , Bris 13% , Syd 2% Lose 8th if Carlton wins. Freo 28%, Melb 25%, Bris 24%, Coll 21% , Syd 3%.
8. Carlton. win or draw to reach finals. Play Collingwood (49%), Melb (18%), Bris (17%), Freo (14%) Lose is only OK if the margin plus Bulldogs' winning margin isn't over 15 points. If they make an EF: Coll 33%, Melb 26%, Bris 22%, Syd 18%.
9. Bulldogs. win Carlton must lose and the margin must be over 15 so that the Blues lose margin is irrelevant. Freo (33%), Melb (26%), Bris (23%) or Syd (18%).

Saints 0.03% chance. Would need combined margin of Saints v Swans and Pies v Blues to be over 150 points.
 

Bradesmaen

TheBrownDog
Apr 8, 2007
51,837
24,100
Dublin
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Saw on reddit someone has done the % for Week 1 of finals.

1. Geelong, win or lose: Possible opponents in QF: Collingwood (35%) Fremantle (25%) Sydney (17%) Melbourne (13%) Brisbane (10%)
2. Sydney. Win and finish 2nd or 3rd. Need to keep the margin above Melbourne's, with 9 point buffer. Play the winner of Brisbane vs Melbourne. Lose: likely 4th, could be 5th or 3rd or even 6th. Play Geelong (45%) or Melb/Bris W (18%) in QF; Bulldogs (16%) or Carlton (15%) in EF
3. Melbourne. Win to finish 3rd, or 2nd if they surpass Sydney. 71% to play Sydney, 43% SCG + 28% MCG. 20% Collingwood, 8% Fremantle. Draw is enough for double chance. Lose: Coll or Freo knock Demons out of top 4 with a win. EF vs Rich (32%), Carl (27%), WB (15%). QF vs Geel 24%
4. Brisbane. Need Sydney to lose to grab a home QF (or beat their margin by 10+ goals). Win: Syd (69%), Coll (20%) , Freo (8%) , Melb (2%) Draw: drop to 5th if Syd & Coll win Lose: Home EF vs Rich (35%), Carl (28%), WB (15%) or away QF vs Geel (22%)
5. Collingwood. Bris draw with Melb and Sydney loss, for 2nd place. More realistic if win: Geel 63%, Bris 19%, Melb 17% Draw: Keep the double chance if Syd or Freo lose If lose, they will play either Rich (51%) or Carl (49%)
6. Fremantle. Win: Need Sydney or Collingwood to lose to earn QF. 48% QF vs Geel, 9% Bris, 8% Melb. Otherwise EF vs WB (20%) or Carl (15%) Draw is not enough, finish 5th / 6th. Lose and finish 6th, to host Richmond (88%) or Carlton (12%)
7. Richmond win or draw: 7th. Freo 48% , Coll 23% , Melb 14% , Bris 13% , Syd 2% Lose 8th if Carlton wins. Freo 28%, Melb 25%, Bris 24%, Coll 21% , Syd 3%.
8. Carlton. win or draw to reach finals. Play Collingwood (49%), Melb (18%), Bris (17%), Freo (14%) Lose is only OK if the margin plus Bulldogs' winning margin isn't over 15 points. If they make an EF: Coll 33%, Melb 26%, Bris 22%, Syd 18%.
9. Bulldogs. win Carlton must lose and the margin must be over 15 so that the Blues lose margin is irrelevant. Freo (33%), Melb (26%), Bris (23%) or Syd (18%).

Saints 0.03% chance. Would need combined margin of Saints v Swans and Pies v Blues to be over 150 points.
Geelong in Geelong for a home Prelim? Where have I heard that one before.
 

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RPCB

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 21, 2007
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1660703987559.jpeg


Lol, what a flog.
 

Art Vandelay_

TheBrownDog
Oct 28, 2012
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Kevin Sheedy could sell ice to an eskimo.

Created the “Country game” which has almost exclusively been played at the biggest stadium in Victoria’s biggest metropolis.
 

chef

Moderator
Oct 5, 2007
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Kevin Sheedy could sell ice to an eskimo.

Created the “Country game” which has almost exclusively been played at the biggest stadium in Victoria’s biggest metropolis.
That country people don't even care about haha

Sheedy loves a bit of me time.
 

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TheGreatBarryB

Hall of Famer
Mar 20, 2007
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No doubting his standing in the game but it's long past time he was listened to for suggestions.
He’s on the board. Better to listen to company people on football matters? I’m sure Man U still get advice from Fergie. He was just taking the piss with the Tassie comment
 

Jatz

Premium Platinum
Sep 7, 2008
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He’s on the board. Better to listen to company people on football matters? I’m sure Man U still get advice from Fergie. He was just taking the piss with the Tassie comment
Fergie might give advice to the club but what he doesn't do his put his name in the media with outlandish comments & suggestions.
 

SM

Bigfooty Legend
Aug 3, 2008
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He’s on the board. Better to listen to company people on football matters? I’m sure Man U still get advice from Fergie. He was just taking the piss with the Tassie comment

Listening to Fergie is part of the reason United are in such a s**t position. He campaigned for them to sign Ronaldo..
 

TubbsFarquhar

Hall of Famer
Jan 18, 2009
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He’s on the board. Better to listen to company people on football matters? I’m sure Man U still get advice from Fergie. He was just taking the piss with the Tassie comment
Mark Ricciuto is on our board yet he embarrasses himself every time he opens his mouth.
 

Jatz

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Some big names going this year. Definitely the right time for him though.
 

TheGreatBarryB

Hall of Famer
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One of my favourites Hurley. Two time All Australian. Deserved better. Four years wasted under the drugs saga. Missed last two with injury.
 

RPCB

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 21, 2007
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Some big names going this year. Definitely the right time for him though.

More to follow definitely. I wonder if Ed Curnow will retire or if he’d want one more year because this was a lost year for him.
 

Jatz

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More to follow definitely. I wonder if Ed Curnow will retire or if he’d want one more year because this was a lost year for him.
I'd say he'd retire. I just don't see us being able to carry him again and there's no guarantee he'd come back anywhere near at the same level.

Apart from that, we really don't have anyone close. Might see a Newnes retire but that'll be due to not being offered a contract.
 

SM

Bigfooty Legend
Aug 3, 2008
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I'd say he'd retire. I just don't see us being able to carry him again and there's no guarantee he'd come back anywhere near at the same level.

Apart from that, we really don't have anyone close. Might see a Newnes retire but that'll be due to not being offered a contract.

Hope not, he's close to the record for most games without a Final.
 

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