Hall of Famer
- Oct 5, 2009
- AFL Club
- Other Teams
- West Adelaide Bloods, Man City.
(Please be warned: Self harm, family separation, and pregnancy loss discussed.)
Geelong in Geelong for a home Prelim? Where have I heard that one before.Saw on reddit someone has done the % for Week 1 of finals.
1. Geelong, win or lose: Possible opponents in QF: Collingwood (35%) Fremantle (25%) Sydney (17%) Melbourne (13%) Brisbane (10%)
2. Sydney. Win and finish 2nd or 3rd. Need to keep the margin above Melbourne's, with 9 point buffer. Play the winner of Brisbane vs Melbourne. Lose: likely 4th, could be 5th or 3rd or even 6th. Play Geelong (45%) or Melb/Bris W (18%) in QF; Bulldogs (16%) or Carlton (15%) in EF
3. Melbourne. Win to finish 3rd, or 2nd if they surpass Sydney. 71% to play Sydney, 43% SCG + 28% MCG. 20% Collingwood, 8% Fremantle. Draw is enough for double chance. Lose: Coll or Freo knock Demons out of top 4 with a win. EF vs Rich (32%), Carl (27%), WB (15%). QF vs Geel 24%
4. Brisbane. Need Sydney to lose to grab a home QF (or beat their margin by 10+ goals). Win: Syd (69%), Coll (20%) , Freo (8%) , Melb (2%) Draw: drop to 5th if Syd & Coll win Lose: Home EF vs Rich (35%), Carl (28%), WB (15%) or away QF vs Geel (22%)
5. Collingwood. Bris draw with Melb and Sydney loss, for 2nd place. More realistic if win: Geel 63%, Bris 19%, Melb 17% Draw: Keep the double chance if Syd or Freo lose If lose, they will play either Rich (51%) or Carl (49%)
6. Fremantle. Win: Need Sydney or Collingwood to lose to earn QF. 48% QF vs Geel, 9% Bris, 8% Melb. Otherwise EF vs WB (20%) or Carl (15%) Draw is not enough, finish 5th / 6th. Lose and finish 6th, to host Richmond (88%) or Carlton (12%)
7. Richmond win or draw: 7th. Freo 48% , Coll 23% , Melb 14% , Bris 13% , Syd 2% Lose 8th if Carlton wins. Freo 28%, Melb 25%, Bris 24%, Coll 21% , Syd 3%.
8. Carlton. win or draw to reach finals. Play Collingwood (49%), Melb (18%), Bris (17%), Freo (14%) Lose is only OK if the margin plus Bulldogs' winning margin isn't over 15 points. If they make an EF: Coll 33%, Melb 26%, Bris 22%, Syd 18%.
9. Bulldogs. win Carlton must lose and the margin must be over 15 so that the Blues lose margin is irrelevant. Freo (33%), Melb (26%), Bris (23%) or Syd (18%).
Saints 0.03% chance. Would need combined margin of Saints v Swans and Pies v Blues to be over 150 points.
Fergie might give advice to the club but what he doesn't do his put his name in the media with outlandish comments & suggestions.
I'd say he'd retire. I just don't see us being able to carry him again and there's no guarantee he'd come back anywhere near at the same level.More to follow definitely. I wonder if Ed Curnow will retire or if he’d want one more year because this was a lost year for him.
I'd say he'd retire. I just don't see us being able to carry him again and there's no guarantee he'd come back anywhere near at the same level.
Apart from that, we really don't have anyone close. Might see a Newnes retire but that'll be due to not being offered a contract.