Art Vandelay_
TheBrownDog
- Oct 28, 2012
- 104,529
- 142,445
- AFL Club
- Geelong
- Other Teams
- Bushrangers - Tottenham
Saw on reddit someone has done the % for Week 1 of finals.
1. Geelong, win or lose: Possible opponents in QF: Collingwood (35%) Fremantle (25%) Sydney (17%) Melbourne (13%) Brisbane (10%)
2. Sydney. Win and finish 2nd or 3rd. Need to keep the margin above Melbourne's, with 9 point buffer. Play the winner of Brisbane vs Melbourne. Lose: likely 4th, could be 5th or 3rd or even 6th. Play Geelong (45%) or Melb/Bris W (18%) in QF; Bulldogs (16%) or Carlton (15%) in EF
3. Melbourne. Win to finish 3rd, or 2nd if they surpass Sydney. 71% to play Sydney, 43% SCG + 28% MCG. 20% Collingwood, 8% Fremantle. Draw is enough for double chance. Lose: Coll or Freo knock Demons out of top 4 with a win. EF vs Rich (32%), Carl (27%), WB (15%). QF vs Geel 24%
4. Brisbane. Need Sydney to lose to grab a home QF (or beat their margin by 10+ goals). Win: Syd (69%), Coll (20%) , Freo (8%) , Melb (2%) Draw: drop to 5th if Syd & Coll win Lose: Home EF vs Rich (35%), Carl (28%), WB (15%) or away QF vs Geel (22%)
5. Collingwood. Bris draw with Melb and Sydney loss, for 2nd place. More realistic if win: Geel 63%, Bris 19%, Melb 17% Draw: Keep the double chance if Syd or Freo lose If lose, they will play either Rich (51%) or Carl (49%)
6. Fremantle. Win: Need Sydney or Collingwood to lose to earn QF. 48% QF vs Geel, 9% Bris, 8% Melb. Otherwise EF vs WB (20%) or Carl (15%) Draw is not enough, finish 5th / 6th. Lose and finish 6th, to host Richmond (88%) or Carlton (12%)
7. Richmond win or draw: 7th. Freo 48% , Coll 23% , Melb 14% , Bris 13% , Syd 2% Lose 8th if Carlton wins. Freo 28%, Melb 25%, Bris 24%, Coll 21% , Syd 3%.
8. Carlton. win or draw to reach finals. Play Collingwood (49%), Melb (18%), Bris (17%), Freo (14%) Lose is only OK if the margin plus Bulldogs' winning margin isn't over 15 points. If they make an EF: Coll 33%, Melb 26%, Bris 22%, Syd 18%.
9. Bulldogs. win Carlton must lose and the margin must be over 15 so that the Blues lose margin is irrelevant. Freo (33%), Melb (26%), Bris (23%) or Syd (18%).
Saints 0.03% chance. Would need combined margin of Saints v Swans and Pies v Blues to be over 150 points.
1. Geelong, win or lose: Possible opponents in QF: Collingwood (35%) Fremantle (25%) Sydney (17%) Melbourne (13%) Brisbane (10%)
2. Sydney. Win and finish 2nd or 3rd. Need to keep the margin above Melbourne's, with 9 point buffer. Play the winner of Brisbane vs Melbourne. Lose: likely 4th, could be 5th or 3rd or even 6th. Play Geelong (45%) or Melb/Bris W (18%) in QF; Bulldogs (16%) or Carlton (15%) in EF
3. Melbourne. Win to finish 3rd, or 2nd if they surpass Sydney. 71% to play Sydney, 43% SCG + 28% MCG. 20% Collingwood, 8% Fremantle. Draw is enough for double chance. Lose: Coll or Freo knock Demons out of top 4 with a win. EF vs Rich (32%), Carl (27%), WB (15%). QF vs Geel 24%
4. Brisbane. Need Sydney to lose to grab a home QF (or beat their margin by 10+ goals). Win: Syd (69%), Coll (20%) , Freo (8%) , Melb (2%) Draw: drop to 5th if Syd & Coll win Lose: Home EF vs Rich (35%), Carl (28%), WB (15%) or away QF vs Geel (22%)
5. Collingwood. Bris draw with Melb and Sydney loss, for 2nd place. More realistic if win: Geel 63%, Bris 19%, Melb 17% Draw: Keep the double chance if Syd or Freo lose If lose, they will play either Rich (51%) or Carl (49%)
6. Fremantle. Win: Need Sydney or Collingwood to lose to earn QF. 48% QF vs Geel, 9% Bris, 8% Melb. Otherwise EF vs WB (20%) or Carl (15%) Draw is not enough, finish 5th / 6th. Lose and finish 6th, to host Richmond (88%) or Carlton (12%)
7. Richmond win or draw: 7th. Freo 48% , Coll 23% , Melb 14% , Bris 13% , Syd 2% Lose 8th if Carlton wins. Freo 28%, Melb 25%, Bris 24%, Coll 21% , Syd 3%.
8. Carlton. win or draw to reach finals. Play Collingwood (49%), Melb (18%), Bris (17%), Freo (14%) Lose is only OK if the margin plus Bulldogs' winning margin isn't over 15 points. If they make an EF: Coll 33%, Melb 26%, Bris 22%, Syd 18%.
9. Bulldogs. win Carlton must lose and the margin must be over 15 so that the Blues lose margin is irrelevant. Freo (33%), Melb (26%), Bris (23%) or Syd (18%).
Saints 0.03% chance. Would need combined margin of Saints v Swans and Pies v Blues to be over 150 points.