The Big Issue - Has the club misread the football climate again?

[1981]

For years Carlton ignored the draft and instead pursued a re-tread strategy, which worked in the 80s and 90s but not in the Naughties and beyond.

The club then changed tack and invested in the draft.

But was this the right move?

The Dogs and Tigers have won flags with few stars and instead hard bodies and hardened attitudes. I recall an interview with Tiger president Gale a couple years ago and he said with GWS likely to dominate in the future the club decided to get more experienced players instead of investing so much in the draft. It was felt a re-tread approach would make the team more competitive in the GWS years.

But we went the other way.

We could have Henderson, Garlett , Betts, Touhy, Waite, Gibbs etc running around for us.

Have we misread the football climate once again by going young during an era where arguably we should have gone more experience?

Could those names above theoretically thrive under Bolton??

Wouldn't that be ironic.

I'm not suggesting I believe this but I am asking us to debate this.

 

[Toddski]

Valid point. We've also drafted too many tall intercept defenders. Now they are a liability the way the game is played with one on one's.

Following this discussion closely.

 

[SurreyBlue]

There is a balance and we as a club have no idea what it is.
We have gone too far down the draft path. More importantly, we traded out players that we should have kept, kept players that add little value and drafted ‘big boidies’ that add even less. The latter critical error.
I feel we will now kill the kids by playing them injured or when they are not ready and all because the onfield support is not there.

 

[btdg]

I think you are right in one sense - with free agency, there's a better way to rebuild and as always, Geelong and Hawthorn have shown us up. You need to have 2x top 15 midfielders in the comp to compete. Go all out to get them (a la Dangerfield/Ablett and Mitchell/o'meara) and you can rebuild fast. Keep vets around them and target holes with free agents (E.g. Henderson and Touhy), then pick up a few smart mature agers (Kelly). With free agency you can just roll this over year after year, too

On the other hand, our hand was forced vy our prjor list mismanagement. Henderson, Betts and Garrett wanted out and weren't staying. Waite and Touhy wanted more.money - keeping them would have made it impossible to sign the free agents we needed. With that in mind? We have done well to get the compensation we needed - also getting return on Mendel, Bell, and Gibbs too.

The hard work starts now though. We have 20-odd prospects aged 18-22 on our list which means we are 3-4 years away from competing. At that point we will have holes and gaps to fill. That's where we will need another a grade midfielder, or a free agent small forward... our Caddy and Prestia.

Don't forget - Richmond began building their list in 2007. It took 9 years to get to the point where they could top up.and pinch a flag. We are in our third year - there is a long way to go yet...

 

[pinot]

We are doing alright plenty of room in salary cap to get an A grader + 2 first round draft picks.

Ball movement and pressure is horrible at the moment it seems this team is non synchronised due to the youth.

 

[Chookaradley]

Great discussion topic. Ill have to carefully consider my response.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

...

We could have Henderson, Garlett , Betts, Touhy, Waite, Gibbs etc running around for us.

...

Of those players:

- Henderson, Waite and Gibbs each wanted out (we got value in trades for Henderson and Gibbs)

- Tuohy wanted more money and SOS said No. But SOS used the trade outcome in other deals to land Marchbank and Pickett (and yes I know Smedts and Palmer).

- Betts and Jeffy Garlett I consider mistakes (and getting Thomas in too) but people forget how woeful Betts and Garlett were in their last seasons at Carlton. Neither Clem Smith or Foster kicked on with the draft picks we got for Garlett.


Others

- Grigg walked out ... we got Collins.

- Hampson traded for a pick (we used it get Docherty)

- Kennedy ... wished we had traded Fevola to get Judd ...

- Bell ... draft pick 21 bundled up with another draft pick that got us ... Charlie.

 

[1981]

I think you are right in one sense - with free agency, there's a better way to rebuild and as always, Geelong and Hawthorn have shown us up. You need to have 2x top 15 midfielders in the comp to compete. Go all out to get them (a la Dangerfield/Ablett and Mitchell/o'meara) and you can rebuild fast. Keep vets around them and target holes with free agents (E.g. Henderson and Touhy), then pick up a few smart mature agers (Kelly). With free agency you can just roll this over year after year, too

On the other hand, our hand was forced vy our prjor list mismanagement. Henderson, Betts and Garrett wanted out and weren't staying. Waite and Touhy wanted more.money - keeping them would have made it impossible to sign the free agents we needed. With that in mind? We have done well to get the compensation we needed - also getting return on Mendel, Bell, and Gibbs too.

The hard work starts now though. We have 20-odd prospects aged 18-22 on our list which means we are 3-4 years away from competing. At that point we will have holes and gaps to fill. That's where we will need another a grade midfielder, or a free agent small forward... our Caddy and Prestia.

Don't forget - Richmond began building their list in 2007. It took 9 years to get to the point where they could top up.and pinch a flag. We are in our third year - there is a long way to go yet...

I'm enjoying your views.

One thing you note which I forgot to mention was how Hawks went out and got Omeara and Mitchell. Seems to be a wise investment. We've seemingly gone the opposite route getting rid of Gibbs.

Yes it is possible we were never going to appease and keep such players and I know it's hard to lure talent to a bottom rung side but at the end of the day we still have a midfield lacking depth and arguably have misread the climate and the new trends.

Another thing I forgot to mention earlier is it's only a few years ago we were better than Richmond and now look at the two clubs.

 

[HBF]

Good discussion point, but guys like Betts and Garlett went on Micks watch.

 

[1981]

Of those players:

- Henderson, Waite and Gibbs each wanted out (we got value in trades for Henderson and Gibbs)

- Tuohy wanted more money and SOS said No. But SOS used the trade outcome in other deals to land Marchbank and Pickett (and yes I know Smedts and Palmer).

- Betts and Jeffy Garlett I consider mistakes (and getting Thomas in too) but people forget how woeful Betts and Garlett were in their last seasons at Carlton. Neither Clem Smith or Foster kicked on with the draft picks we got for Garlett.


Others

- Grigg walked out ... we got Collins.

- Hampson traded for a pick (we used it get Docherty)

- Kennedy ... wished we had traded Fevola to get Judd ...

- Bell ... draft pick 21 bundled up with another draft pick that got us ... Charlie.

I'm less interested in interrogating in minute detail every player. We get lost down the rabbit hole doing that and lose sight of the bigger picture - did we misread the new trend in football?

 

[Soapy V]

Nope. All those are fine but you need to build the base first


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[1981]

Good discussion point, but guys like Betts and Garlett went on Micks watch.

Again I don't think isolating players and reasons is the right way to go.

I mean none of us are inner sanctum so we are only guessing.

Would have disenfranchised players have stayed under Bolton's vision?

 

[sosos]

The good teams get the youth group right first, then top up.

The transition is painful but necessary. Stay the course.

 

[dcutter]

The club took a back step to go forward when releasing Gibbs. Couldn't possibly have foreseen Docherty going down. Essentially the almost-equivelent of taking Martin and Rance out of Richmonds lineup.

Its probably a simplistic view but I see it as Carltons central issue for its current woes this season - Two elite players in a team crying out for talent, leadership and depth just can't be covered like it can with other more established teams.

The change of tact essentially occurred before Bolton arrived. The blue print for any good rebuild seems to be cleanout, draft, get mature players in. Bolton hasn't reached that third stage yet, it would seem and should probably be seen as the reference point for how Carlton are judged going forward.

Blues are certainly playing the long game but in my view are already ahead of a host of teams in chasing down a flag.
Its also worth noting Carlton are coming in off a long run compared to other teams who are rebuilding - the missed generation of draft picks during and before the malthouse era can't be understated.

Another year of development, another free agent and a couple of top ender draft picks can change things rapidly.

Its going to get worse before it gets better.

Keep the faith fellas.

 

[1981]

Nope. All those are fine but you need to build the base first


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

So it's like a pizza.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

1981

If we lose a handful of youngsters along the way we should anticipate trade / draft value in return.

If we have one or two too many KPDs or KPFs and they are doing ok, then we can trade one for trade / draft value in return. However, with Rowe and ASOS deep in the twilight of their careers and Casboult unlikely to play beyond his current contract (expires end 2019), I don’t see this as a great issue.

The other side of getting experienced senior players / FAs is they have to want to come. It is no surprise that the only FAs we get these days are delisted FAs (Wright and Mullett, we have already turned over Gorringe). Who did we target at the end of 2017? Rockliff, Devon Smith, Saad and Kennedy.

So, a little more on field success, maybe during 2019 and we should be more of a #DestinationClub. So maybe the way to go is to give up a 2019 first round draft pick and get a second, first round pick in 2018. Then back ourselves to improve in 2019 and to land Shiel at the end of 2019.

# NoquickfixestoDestinationClub

 

[1981]

The club took a back step to go forward when releasing Gibbs. Couldn't possibly have foreseen Docherty going down. Essentially the almost-equivelent of taking Martin and Rance out of Richmonds lineup.

Its probably a simplistic view but I see it as Carltons central issue for its current woes this season - Two elite players in a team crying out for talent, leadership and depth just can't be covered like it can with other more established teams.

The change of tact essentially occurred before Bolton arrived. The blue print for any good rebuild seems to be cleanout, draft, get mature players in. Bolton has reached that third stage yet, it would seem.

Blues are certainly playing the long game but in my view are already ahead of a host of teams in chasing down a flag.
Its also worth noting Carlton are coming in off a long run compared to other teams who are rebuilding - the missed generation of draft picks during and before the malthouse era can't be understated.

Another year of development, another free agent and a couple of top ender draft picks can change things rapidly.

Its going to get worse before it gets better.

Keep the faith fellas.

Nice.

We aren't very appealing for FA yet though.

 

[1981]

Arguably we need to do a Hawks and throw the kitchen sink to get a couple elite experienced but not old mids. If we don't fast track support for Cripps we risk losing him. Loyalty only goes so far. Just ask Gibbs and Betts etc.

 

[1981]

The other issue is with a seriously super draft looming do we go the Hawks model as signposted earlier and get a Omeara and Mitchell which would require sacrificing many high picks and thus missing out on the top end of the super draft or do we continue with the current youth path and perhaps even try and get another early pick? Imagine if we could get Rankine and Walsh.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

I'm less interested in interrogating in minute detail every player. We get lost down the rabbit hole doing that and lose sight of the bigger picture - did we misread the new trend in football?

I was addressing a rather simplistic statement you made that Waite, Henderson, Tuohy, Gibbs and others could still be playing for us.

To answer your question about if we failed to go with a trend, I say that even if we wanted to, we were unable to do so as the players would not have wanted to come to us.

We were in no position to win the likes of Nankervis, Prestia or Caddy like the Tigers did, and we could not win the likes of Rockliff, Devon Smith or Saad like Port and the Bombers did.

We should go all out for one or two of Sloane, Gaff, Lynch, Dahlhaus, Wallis, Neville Jetta etc. Will we succeed?

 

[btdg]

I'm enjoying your views.

One thing you note which I forgot to mention was how Hawks went out and got Omeara and Mitchell. Seems to be a wise investment. We've seemingly gone the opposite route getting rid of Gibbs.

Yes it is possible we were never going to appease and keep such players and I know it's hard to lure talent to a bottom rung side but at the end of the day we still have a midfield lacking depth and arguably have misread the climate and the new trends.

Another thing I forgot to mention earlier is it's only a few years ago we were better than Richmond and now look at the two clubs.

No, I agree. We could have gone the Hawthorn route. If you went back to last year, could we have trumped Sydney and got Mitchell? Probably - give up Petrevski-Seton and we get it done. Then our second last year (Fisher) + first this year (Dow) to trump the Hawks and get O'Meara. Then we keep Gibbs. Maybe rather than targetting Kennedy, we go for Jarman Impey instead like Hawthorn, as a ready-to-go running player. Still pick up Lang, etc.

How do we look with that line-up at full strength?

b: Plowman, Weitering, Docherty
hb: Simpson, Marchbank, Impey
c: Murphy, Cripps, O'Meara
hf: Wright, Curnow, Lang
f: Lamb, Casboult, Silvagni
Foll: Kreuzer, Mitchell, Gibbs
Bench: Curnow, Pickett, Thomas, Cuningham
Depth: Williamson, Garlett, Mullett,

How would that team fare? We would arguably be better off. Docherty out and Mullett in right now. We'd be probably similar to the Hawks - a top 8 contender, albeit with a worse coach.

So I feel we've missed a chance there. But going the other way isn't so bad - we have a massive group of 18-22 year-old players now. Those guys are probably 5 years off competing. That gives us 5 years to catch up...

Interesting comparison to Richmond. We went the Hawthorn route - signing Judd. Probably should have targetted another gun midfielder, although it was harder back then. They stayed low and built slowly, topping up 9 years later. We rose quickly, but lacked the depth to really compete, and have fallen back to the pits again. Now we're trying the Richmond route, with elements of GWS in there too. Having done so, getting rid of Gibbs was (probably) the right decision - we've picked up 3 extra players in the 18-22 age bracket as a result, which gives us a really big group who can go through together. But we're going to have some short-term pain, particularly with Docherty out.

 

[1981]

No, I agree. We could have gone the Hawthorn route. If you went back to last year, could we have trumped Sydney and got Mitchell? Probably - give up Petrevski-Seton and we get it done. Then our second last year (Fisher) + first this year (Dow) to trump the Hawks and get O'Meara. Then we keep Gibbs. Maybe rather than targetting Kennedy, we go for Jarman Impey instead like Hawthorn, as a ready-to-go running player. Still pick up Lang, etc.

How do we look with that line-up at full strength?

b: Plowman, Weitering, Docherty
hb: Simpson, Marchbank, Impey
c: Murphy, Cripps, O'Meara
hf: Wright, Curnow, Lang
f: Lamb, Casboult, Silvagni
Foll: Kreuzer, Mitchell, Gibbs
Bench: Curnow, Pickett, Thomas, Cuningham
Depth: Williamson, Garlett, Mullett,

How would that team fare? We would arguably be better off. Docherty out and Mullett in right now. We'd be probably similar to the Hawks - a top 8 contender, albeit with a worse coach.

So I feel we've missed a chance there. But going the other way isn't so bad - we have a massive group of 18-22 year-old players now. Those guys are probably 5 years off competing. That gives us 5 years to catch up...

Interesting comparison to Richmond. We went the Hawthorn route - signing Judd. Probably should have targetted another gun midfielder, although it was harder back then. They stayed low and built slowly, topping up 9 years later. We rose quickly, but lacked the depth to really compete, and have fallen back to the pits again. Now we're trying the Richmond route, with elements of GWS in there too. Having done so, getting rid of Gibbs was (probably) the right decision - we've picked up 3 extra players in the 18-22 age bracket as a result, which gives us a really big group who can go through together. But we're going to have some short-term pain, particularly with Docherty out.

I think Kennedy is important. He looked very average last night but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt he's missed a fair bit of footy. He needs to come on.

 

[1981]

It'll be hard to get another top ten pick. We'd virtually have to trade three second and third rounders.

I'm leaning towards keeping our first and taking the best midfielder and trying to use our seconds and thirds of which I think we have three in total (? Maybe 4?) in a trade for a quality midfielder. Later picks should have greater equity given the depth of the draft this year.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

I'm less interested in interrogating in minute detail every player. We get lost down the rabbit hole doing that and lose sight of the bigger picture - did we misread the new trend in football?

Just in case you missed it, I set out my answer to your question at post #20.

 

[Cripps17]

From here on out I just hope we don't miss out on FA players because we're not willing to overspend.

Instead of overspending on quality, we're throwing salary down the drain by paying out contacts and bringing in guys like Mullet, O'Shea, Lobbe.