The Big Issue - Has the club misread the football climate again?

[Foucault1989]

Ahhh here we go. I was wondering how long Carlton fans could hang on before we enter doomsday mode.

We forget how poor our list was before Bolton and SOS. There was consensusbwithin the club and the broader football community that we needed to initiate a total rebuild. Last night we had the likes of Cripps (23), Fisher (20) Kennedy (21) SPS (20?) Dow (19) plus Murphy and Curnow going up against Pendlebury, Treloar, Adams and Sidebottom. What do we really expect? They simply can't run as hard for as long as these guys.

We can't jump at shadows here. This will take time but in the long run it will hopefully lead to sustained success. I agree we probably need to recruit some mature aged body midfielders who are quality to help out, but why would an A grader want to come to a rebuilding club?

I was born in 1989 so for the vast majority of my football viewing life we have been a bottom club. I missed out on the glory days and I hurt each and every time we lose. However, I also recognise that there is simply no such thing as a quick fix when you are building sustainable success. We have a bunch of young blokes not only learning to play AFL, but also learning to play with one another. In time this adversity will pay off but it the meantime it suits no one to start becoming impatient, calling for the coaches head or bringing into question the list strategy as we had no choice post Malthouse.

As bad as things seem now, it can and will turn around. I have full confidence in the current hierarchy to continue with a long term vision for the club and will not let losing games like the way we are right now detract away from that.

 

[therubbernub]

Its very easy to draw a conclusion based on history. That doesnt make it so. The hawks have a lot of experience still, and players like sicily were developing nicely n the reserves before being given a senior chance. They had a good base of experience to relaunch from. They targeted their obvious need ie midfielders and didnt muck around..
We had many holes to fill . Mids and key position players, its v ry hard to fill all those voids in 3 drafts..

We have come a long way ijn a very short time, and i am hopefull that by the end of 2018 , we will be very certain which players are keepers and which can be moved on. I see that we can be far more targeted at the end of the year. Midfield class and pressure should be our priority. If we are in a position to take Rankine, then we should take him over lukiosis, simply because that is what we desperately need. If we can slot rankine and another a grade mid from free agency , then our midfield looks well balanced and set for a while. I think this is doable as we certainly have the salary cap, and it looks as though we will have the draft pick. . We also have 2 second rounders, and if those picks can net us a zac fisher type, then we start to look really competitive.

 

[Arr0w]

For years Carlton ignored the draft and instead pursued a re-tread strategy, which worked in the 80s and 90s but not in the Naughties and beyond.

The club then changed tack and invested in the draft.

But was this the right move?

The Dogs and Tigers have won flags with few stars and instead hard bodies and hardened attitudes. I recall an interview with Tiger president Gale a couple years ago and he said with GWS likely to dominate in the future the club decided to get more experienced players instead of investing so much in the draft. It was felt a re-tread approach would make the team more competitive in the GWS years.

But we went the other way.

We could have Henderson, Garlett , Betts, Touhy, Waite, Gibbs etc running around for us.

Have we misread the football climate once again by going young during an era where arguably we should have gone more experience?

Could those names above theoretically thrive under Bolton??

Wouldn't that be ironic.

I'm not suggesting I believe this but I am asking us to debate this.

What the Dogs and Tigers have done is no different to the similar path we are heading down

Dogs GF side, was built through the draft, with only Hamling, Biggs and Boyd, all of who were targeted in 2015

Tigers GF side, again was built through the draft and only in the last couple of years brought in some bigger bodied players.
2017 Nankervis, Prestia, Caddy
2016 Townsend
2015 Lambert
2011 Grigg, Houli (Not sure you can include these guys, given it was 6 years prior to the flag, but a bonus they were still around)

And as for people suggesting we are too tall, especially in the backline for the modern game, I am sorry to say, you have no idea.

Rance 194
Grimes 193
Astbury 195
McIntosh 191
Broad 192

Even though the Dogs were a smaller unit
Hamling 194
Roberts 196
Cordy 192
Morris 190

It is not about height, it is about mobility and agility

Conclusion, the list of players, we are amassing, is the most talented youth list in close on 3 decades. Once they gain experience, we will commence targeting stronger, more talented players through free agency. The timing is crucial, hence the 3 year rebuild, prior to targeting top end players

 

[JustaBattler]

I don't think 'continuity of strategy' is on the table here - we cant pretend that Malthouse regime didn't happen nor can the consequences of his failed time at Carlton be separated from what has had to follow. It was the last roll of the dice by a Board still of the view that Swan knew best in bringing in Malthouse and I can tell you for a fact it was a very split Board regarding Malthouse. As soon as it became obvious it was a mistake - Swan was exited - way before Malthouse was let go. The changes at Board level in terms of power and control all flowed from the split Board over Swan and Malthouse - and set teh Club on the course it is on now ie join the 21st century.

but for the sake of discussion here is my view on player movement (Ftliw)
Betts/Garlett/Robinson were Malthouse disasters - as was Yarran. SOS ended up getting value for Yarran and the Club gave away Betts/Garlett and Robinson for nothing - it was the height of stupidity - Malthouse wanted nothing to do with the 'Amigos' - sorry I don't buy the Garlett and Betts are s**t argument - not for a second.

In the SOS/Bolton era many changes were forced and some were not as well executed as others - sometimes beggars cant be choosers.

Tuohy was a trading blunder as he didn't want to go to Sydney, and it opened up a forced weak trade with Geelong - we should have kept him, we miss his kicking and run big time - that said if Docherty and Byrne weren't injured, Carlton had him covered somewhat - so meh. Waite should have been seen off the list 10 years ago - good riddance to bad culture - Hendersook we got good value. Gibbsy wanted home and good luck to him - again good value.

Tempting as it is to sit back looking back and make up alternative universe scenarios - things don't work like that. Incremental logic is your best friend and even with best practice - no guarantees.

 

[La Dispute]

All academic, and no doubt playing for a club with exceptional development helps a shitload, but it looks like all those advocating trading pick 5 for Tom Mitchell were spot on.

 

[Coops93]

It's too early to tell. Let's not forget at the start of all this SOS did say we're in for a 66 game rebuild, of which were at about 46 games in.

The last 3 offseasons focussed on draft and signing players who fit the age bracket (Marchbank, Plowman etc.). Because of this we should be pretty close to having the foundation of young talent we need to be able to top up with a couple mature age recruits who would be starting 22.

I think we're still 1 offseason away from where SOS and Bolts think we need to be list management wise. It's to early to say we've gone the wrong way about it.

 

[SurreyBlue]

It’s time to protect the kids and teach them the Bolton game plan in the VFL.
Play a bigger bodied side immediately and get our moneys worth on ‘most’ players that aren’t the future and we can afford to destroy mentally.

Mullett Jones ASOS
Byrne Rowe O’Shae
Simpson ECurnow Murphy
Lamb Casboult Shaw
Wright Lobbe Thomas
Kruezer Kerridge Graham

I feel for the players in bold.

 

[Jimmae]

Was our chasing of Rockliff, Brad Crouch, Kelly (Tim and Josh), Scully, Whitfield and Hopper last off-season a fever dream I had?

What about Fyfe and Wines? Lynch? We're cracking in, we're just not overpaying when the window hasn't quite opened. When they're the next-to-last piece of the puzzle and the TPP space is there, then we'll overpay a smidge.

I think we'll be shedding quite a few talls this year, as well as supplanting guys like Levi and Rowe with players who are more mobile. We've already shown that we'll max out at about 7-9 talls - assuming you count Plowman, Silvagni and Marchbank - provided the mobility is there. With the way we shuffled Lamb around, brought Polson in and dumped SOS the other week, it's really clear that we know mobility is an issue.

We're also down 6 players on our current list who would be involved with best 22 calculations, and everyone of them would improve our mobility in various positions (mostly in defence).

Personally, I'm really comfortable with our first round pick being a tall given the quality of the talls on offer, but we'll have live trading of picks available to us and we may leverage that to gain a superior first round hand for conceding a guy like Rankine or the King twins to another team.

Long story short, I think we'll shed 3-5 talls this off-season and only bring 2 or 3 in, and we will shed the other remaining dead-man-walking list spots (Lamb, Graham, LeBois and Shaw), with a lot of 18-23 midfield prospects brought in (and maybe another small defensive option).

 

[bmaurizio]

We desperatly need Jack Lokusius or Max King and another quality midfielder.
Specialized mids are abundant in 2018 draft more than usual , there's real value from pick10 to to 18 in fact until pick 25.
Our FS are't too bad either, Ben Silvagniis a good tall and Wil Hickmont is a classy wing , not to sure on Oskar Manton.
We should come away with at least 1 exceptioal talent and 3 to 4 very good youngsters.
We also need a few hardened bodies that can play the game, to mentor our young team.

 

[Aphrodite]

Oh look another List Management thread!

 

[Pafloyul]

Soapy V is right, we need the base first, and we are still not quite there. The fact that we avoided the draft for so long is the reason we're in this position in the first place, if anything, we are still bringing in too many list cloggers. We are also trying to finesse too much with the midfielders/small forwards we bring in, going for the 'silk' over the 'meat and potatoes'. My point is, it's how we are losing that's bringing all this on, the 'green shoots' are starting to dry up so thoughts are starting to go in the opposite direction, which is a bit reactionary.

We desperatly need Jack Lokusius or Max King and another quality midfielder.
Specialized mids are abundant in 2018 draft more than usual , there's real value from pick10 to to 18 in fact until pick 25.
Our FS are't too bad either, Ben Silvagniis a good tall and Wil Hickmont is a classy wing , not to sure on Oskar Manton.
We should come away with at least 1 exceptioal talent and 3 to 4 very good youngsters.
We also need a few hardened bodies that can play the game, to mentor our young team.

This. ^

 

[Murphkreuzmitch]

The reality is, this rebuild was going to take 3 years + before we started to climb the ladder. 66 games was the term used to keep fans patient, is it enough, in hindsight probably not.

We have turned over a huge number of players in the last 3 years and still have some way to go. We have gone the route of selecting KPP first up, as traditionally they take longer to develop. So far we have found some long term players in C Curnow, J Weitering (though out of form, will come good), Jack Silvani (not KPP, but will be a utility and play at different sizes), Marchbank and Plowman as a defensive utility.

From this point we need to make some calls on the second string KPP at the end of the year and bring in more mids and runners.

Once this is complete and we see progress then we should be looking for some top up free agents and a “Big fish”.

I don’t think we have missed the boat, I don’t think we have misread the climate, I think that the reality is that the 66 game rebuild is probably more of a 110 game rebuild. Our direction is correct, the path is just slower than what the club said at the start.

 

[Robertio]

Ahhh here we go. I was wondering how long Carlton fans could hang on before we enter doomsday mode.

We forget how poor our list was before Bolton and SOS. There was consensusbwithin the club and the broader football community that we needed to initiate a total rebuild. Last night we had the likes of Cripps (23), Fisher (20) Kennedy (21) SPS (20?) Dow (19) plus Murphy and Curnow going up against Pendlebury, Treloar, Adams and Sidebottom. What do we really expect? They simply can't run as hard for as long as these guys.

We can't jump at shadows here. This will take time but in the long run it will hopefully lead to sustained success. I agree we probably need to recruit some mature aged body midfielders who are quality to help out, but why would an A grader want to come to a rebuilding club?

I was born in 1989 so for the vast majority of my football viewing life we have been a bottom club. I missed out on the glory days and I hurt each and every time we lose. However, I also recognise that there is simply no such thing as a quick fix when you are building sustainable success. We have a bunch of young blokes not only learning to play AFL, but also learning to play with one another. In time this adversity will pay off but it the meantime it suits no one to start becoming impatient, calling for the coaches head or bringing into question the list strategy as we had no choice post Malthouse.

As bad as things seem now, it can and will turn around. I have full confidence in the current hierarchy to continue with a long term vision for the club and will not let losing games like the way we are right now detract away from that.

Sanity here.

 

[Styxx]

Been a basketcase since 2002 and won't be changing any year soon.

The club doesn't have members/supporters trust and they don't deserve it.

 

[Doro]

Been a basketcase since 2002 and won't be changing any year soon.

The club doesn't have members/supporters trust and they don't deserve it.

You need to separate your own opinion from that of the entire membership/supporter base. Been plenty to be positive about since 2015, need a win now to bring back perspective.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Arguably we need to do a Hawks and throw the kitchen sink to get a couple elite experienced but not old mids. If we don't fast track support for Cripps we risk losing him. Loyalty only goes so far. Just ask Gibbs and Betts etc.

Its imperative that we add at least two, if not three, quality midfielders at seasons end to help him. whether that is through free agency or trades. Its a must. Its priority number one. The draft is a distant second priority to this.

 

[teknodeejay]

It seems apparent that we’ve appointed multiple people in certain positions who collectively are all a bit new to the caper and together have NFI what to do, and it’s showing in all areas.

This might pay off in another few years or it might be the disaster it looks like now.

 

[ferrisb]

For years Carlton ignored the draft and instead pursued a re-tread strategy, which worked in the 80s and 90s but not in the Naughties and beyond.

The club then changed tack and invested in the draft.

But was this the right move?

The Dogs and Tigers have won flags with few stars and instead hard bodies and hardened attitudes. I recall an interview with Tiger president Gale a couple years ago and he said with GWS likely to dominate in the future the club decided to get more experienced players instead of investing so much in the draft. It was felt a re-tread approach would make the team more competitive in the GWS years.

But we went the other way.

We could have Henderson, Garlett , Betts, Touhy, Waite, Gibbs etc running around for us.

Have we misread the football climate once again by going young during an era where arguably we should have gone more experience?

Could those names above theoretically thrive under Bolton??

Wouldn't that be ironic.

I'm not suggesting I believe this but I am asking us to debate this.

Our list was screwed and the worst thing we could have done was keep topping it up.

I think our only chance was to cash in our mid aged talent and start again from scratch.

I fully agree with SOS's scorched earth approach. People just have to realise that it takes time to have its full effect....

 

[teknodeejay]

Ahhh here we go. I was wondering how long Carlton fans could hang on before we enter doomsday mode.

Good points - but I can empathise with the doomsdayers because 15+ years of being a basket case ... everyone has their limits.

Without a doubt we have been and right now still seem to be the worse overall club this Millenia. It stings for those who had fun in the 80a and 90s.

 

[Mr_Plow]

Our list was screwed and the worst thing we could have done was keep topping it up.

I think our only chance was to cash in our mid aged talent and start again from scratch.

I fully agree with SOS's scorched earth approach. People just have to realise that it takes time to have its full effect....

Only one man can save us:



Trust the process.

 

[Blue Heart]

We desperatly need Jack Lokusius or Max King and another quality midfielder.
Specialized mids are abundant in 2018 draft more than usual , there's real value from pick10 to to 18 in fact until pick 25.
Our FS are't too bad either, Ben Silvagniis a good tall and Wil Hickmont is a classy wing , not to sure on Oskar Manton.
We should come away with at least 1 exceptioal talent and 3 to 4 very good youngsters.
We also need a few hardened bodies that can play the game, to mentor our young team.

Without wanting to state the obvious, this is our biggest problem ATM as we don't have the depth of quality of senior players that we can help blood our soft bodied youngsters when they are ready to play. At present too kids many are 'thrown to the wolves' and we are seeing now what happens when out list is so thin.

Unfortunately we aren't seen as a 'destination club' for FA, despite chasing literally every player on the market at the end of 2018 we could only attract young Kennedy who shows promise, but is a long from being a dominating player that we need. I know its a bit of a Catch 22 situation that
unless we can achieve some success soon, or at least being competitive, it maybe 2 or 3 years, perhaps longer, before we can attract quality FA's.

 

[Donstuie]

- AFLW team goes in as one of the flag favourites
Nek minnit: Wooden spoon and best player wanting to leave

- Seniors show promise with young players aiming to take next step
Nek minnit: Two straight thrashings (with flattering margins) against bottom 4 opposition.

- Northern Blues side augmented with fresh young talent and experienced former AFL hands
Nek minnit: 130pt annhiliation in Round 1

The events of the past few weeks aren't normal, and points to something bigger than the coach, captain or injuries. Something stinks at the club and it's time they told us WTF was going on.

There will be a full uprising soon unless this changes fast.

 

[DangerousD]

For years Carlton ignored the draft and instead pursued a re-tread strategy, which worked in the 80s and 90s but not in the Naughties and beyond.

The club then changed tack and invested in the draft.

But was this the right move?

The Dogs and Tigers have won flags with few stars and instead hard bodies and hardened attitudes. I recall an interview with Tiger president Gale a couple years ago and he said with GWS likely to dominate in the future the club decided to get more experienced players instead of investing so much in the draft. It was felt a re-tread approach would make the team more competitive in the GWS years.

But we went the other way.

We could have Henderson, Garlett , Betts, Touhy, Waite, Gibbs etc running around for us.

Have we misread the football climate once again by going young during an era where arguably we should have gone more experience?

Could those names above theoretically thrive under Bolton??

Wouldn't that be ironic.

I'm not suggesting I believe this but I am asking us to debate this.

Without going in to too much depth, i have no doubt we would have been more competitive with those guys in the last few seasons but i believe we would have been constantly hovering or yo-yoing from 6-14th on the ladder with no chance of ever breaking in to the top third of the ladder let alone a flag.

 

[DangerousD]

One thing you note which I forgot to mention was how Hawks went out and got Omeara and Mitchell. Seems to be a wise investment. We've seemingly gone the opposite route getting rid of Gibbs.

I think you are looking at this a little backwards, maybe thats not the right word. Gibbs wanted out two seasons in a row, it would have been really hard to knock him back again.

What i think is the bigger talking point is that the Hawks identified Mitchel and Omeara and went and got them. They didn't worry that they might have overpaid slightly for Omeara or that he was injured and may miss large amounts of his first season as its a long term view. They seem to put a different value on draft picks than us.

 

[DangerousD]

I'm less interested in interrogating in minute detail every player. We get lost down the rabbit hole doing that and lose sight of the bigger picture - did we misread the new trend in football?

Way too early to tell, the Dogs side was built on the back of high end draft picks, a big trade, nailing rookie picks and timing. The Tigers im unsure on, they reminded me of ourselves a few years back when we had Judd, they just had a slightly better support cast.

The Cats have this season and next to win the flag and if they don't then they will be the ones who have missed the trend.

The Hawks i keep expecting to drop, the haven't had any top end picks, they paid a high price for Omeara and they still have a lot of guys who are past their best. Yet they have two really good defenders in Sicily and Burton and have two very good mids in Mitch and Jaegar.

Despite our slow start to the year and an expected bottom 4 finish i still think if we can get a FA or two then our fortunes will change very quickly and then we will be adding hopefully FA's each year.