The Big Issue - Has the club misread the football climate again?

[BLUEALLTHRU]

There are always what ifs and maybes. I am happy where we are and this coming trade/draft period can top it off.

A midfield of Cripps Kennedy Curnow SPS Charlie Fisher Lang Dow will be very good by the end of 2019. Then there is Polson & Cuningham who have potential.

Add to that Pick 2 (Walsh?) and a FA (Gaff?) and a gun trade (Wines?) a late trade like Lang, plus some more picks (2 x second rounders) and it is as good a midfield as there is and will match anyone. That is on top of outside class in Pickett O'Brien Williamson & Garlett plus some very talented young key position players

 

[Michael Jezz]

There are obvious problems around
Unreactive coaching
Lack of defensive pressure
Midfield strength, big bodies.

But it is fixable. This was never going to be a 3 or 4 season fix and coaching is the least of the problems. Put it this way the Herald Sun Mafia were far softer on Melbourne, Collingwood, Richmond and St Kilda 47 games after appointing a new coach

 

[GordonBlue]

We are using the right manner (finally), however execution is still up in the air....

Having said that, the club knows all too well they need to bring in top notch talent and they are planning on doing that.

However, we desperately need to put in the effort to show perspective high end talent that they are not joining a team that will be at the bottom for to much longer. That we will be moving up the ladder.

I would love to see this as the year progresses.

The last two games have been gut wrenching but I would rather have these losses now and win the games that show we're heading in the right direction later.

 

[WFGodot]

The fact is we just need a bonanza of a draft where our first 3 picks deliver guns. Think Hawks with Roughead, Franklin and Lewis. Snagging one or two serviceable 10 year players just marks time. Then we need to get one or two FA ins that deliver on the money we pay.

Even then we make ourselves Melbourne today. Good coaching, admin, culture need to align.

It appears Bolts is a good teacher and mentor what I have yet to be convinced of is his match day smarts but based on talent at his disposal he’s turning up to a gun fight with a butter knife atm.

 

[Macca43]

I honestly think our fans have misread the climate more so than the club.

Great observation! Bolton after inheriting a list that was dead last in 2015 then lost Judd, Carrazzo, Henderson, Bell, Menzel & Yarran before you playing a game (plus half a dozen others), at the end of his first year out go Walker, Jamison, Touhy & Everitt and again half a dozen others and then at the end of his second year out goes Gibbs and players like Armfield & White who were good foot soldiers and again about half a dozen others and on top of that you lose you 1 All Australian 30 minutes into pre-season and yet supporters seem to be expecting we are knocking on the door of finals.

This will take time and the glimpses we are seeing from Marchbank, C Curnow, Fisher, SPS, Cuningham and even Dow (I thought he was pretty good on the weekend disposal aside) should eb enough to reassure us we are going in the right direction.

We need to remember that just a couple of years ago if a team had put a run of 10 goals up against us it would have resulted in a 100 point flogging yet was lost this one by 24 points and still pushing hard.

 

[Juddernaut08]

For years Carlton ignored the draft and instead pursued a re-tread strategy, which worked in the 80s and 90s but not in the Naughties and beyond.

The club then changed tack and invested in the draft.

But was this the right move?

The Dogs and Tigers have won flags with few stars and instead hard bodies and hardened attitudes. I recall an interview with Tiger president Gale a couple years ago and he said with GWS likely to dominate in the future the club decided to get more experienced players instead of investing so much in the draft. It was felt a re-tread approach would make the team more competitive in the GWS years.

But we went the other way.

We could have Henderson, Garlett , Betts, Touhy, Waite, Gibbs etc running around for us.

Have we misread the football climate once again by going young during an era where arguably we should have gone more experience?

Could those names above theoretically thrive under Bolton??

Wouldn't that be ironic.

I'm not suggesting I believe this but I am asking us to debate this.

Interesting proposal, but fairly flawed thinking.

Firstly, need to keep comparisons consistent and accurate. We are talking about trading established players for draft position.

Betts does not fit that criteria. He was let go for Thomas.
Garlett does not fit that criteria. He was let go for Malthouse's ego. Pick 64 is pointless and I don't think we were trying to trade him to improve draft oppportunities.
Waite was let go for cap considerations. We didn't get any draft position in here.

So the only valid ones are Henderson, Tuohy and Gibbs. These essentially landed us 4 first round draft picks. These 3 players would likely still be playing at a high level for us if we had kept them, but then you wouldn't have those 4 young guns coming through.

If you think Hendo/Tuohy/Gibbs would've made the difference and helped us challenge, then sure it's a mistake. I don't think anyone believes that though so the trades were correct.

This doesn't mean the Betts/Garlett/Waite handling was correct. I think they were handled horrendously. But they weren't done as part of a strategy to get in young players. In fact, we got no one young for any of those 3. Really just a monumental **** up.

 

[Robertio]

Great observation! Bolton after inheriting a list that was dead last in 2015 then lost Judd, Carrazzo, Henderson, Bell, Menzel & Yarran before you playing a game (plus half a dozen others), at the end of his first year out go Walker, Jamison, Touhy & Everitt and again half a dozen others and then at the end of his second year out goes Gibbs and players like Armfield & White who were good foot soldiers and again about half a dozen others and on top of that you lose you 1 All Australian 30 minutes into pre-season and yet supporters seem to be expecting we are knocking on the door of finals.

This will take time and the glimpses we are seeing from Marchbank, C Curnow, Fisher, SPS, Cuningham and even Dow (I thought he was pretty good on the weekend disposal aside) should eb enough to reassure us we are going in the right direction.

We need to remember that just a couple of years ago if a team had put a run of 10 goals up against us it would have resulted in a 100 point flogging yet was lost this one by 24 points and still pushing hard.

Well put Swan.

 

[BIGGUS 64]

I'm not sure I am comfortable with the idea that we need to be attuned to current "trends" or "climates". Teams don't become successful by chasing trends, the successful teams create the trends.
By the time a team has attuned to the successful formula which netted the last flag or two, generally you would find the game is already moving on. An approach which works one year won't necessarily work the next.

Building a list of quality players is what's needed. From there it's up to the coach to use those players in a way that maximizes their strengths and hopefully produces a winning style.

 

[PP34]

No.

Both Richmond and the Bulldogs spent time on the bottom which landed them gun players.

The 2014 Carlton side that we pretty much demolished to start over had no superstar level talents that are needed to win a flag.

That Richmond side spent several years at the bottom which allowed them to get Dusty, Cotchin and Rance and a few others. They topped up once they realised they didn’t have enough win their current list to go deep in September.

Our situation wasn’t even remotely comparable. Our best players were Murphy and Gibbs and neither are on the level of a Martin or Rance. The rest of our list was a shambolic mess that won’t win you anything meaningful. Our one superstar was Judd and he was cooked by 2013/14.

The only way to win with that list would have been if a few big name players came to the club like a Dangerfield and that was never happening.

Going out and getting Kane Lambert types merely would have left us stuck in the middle of the ladder and merely delayed a rebuild. Only now would we be in the beginning of our rebuild.

 

[Jimmae]

I loved Mitchell at Sydney and think he was a steal at pick 14, I like his clearance work and ability to bring others in to the game. I wish he was in our side.

Omeara I thought was a big risk and that they paid overs, time will tell but I’m glad we didn’t go after him.

Impey also Looks like a bargain.

Once again: they traded away 2 drafts for those 3 players.

At the same time, they traded out Mitchell, Hodge and Lewis. Their list needed to regenerate, but it was a high price to pay.

 

[BIGGUS 64]

The fact is we just need a bonanza of a draft where our first 3 picks deliver guns. Think Hawks with Roughead, Franklin and Lewis. Snagging one or two serviceable 10 year players just marks time. Then we need to get one or two FA ins that deliver on the money we pay.

Even then we make ourselves Melbourne today. Good coaching, admin, culture need to align.

It appears Bolts is a good teacher and mentor what I have yet to be convinced of is his match day smarts but based on talent at his disposal he’s turning up to a gun fight with a butter knife atm.

We also have to remember that Bolts is still quite green for a senior coach, so he is still on a steep learning curve when it comes to match day coaching. We will need to be patient, as the more seasoned coaches will be able to outfox him on game day. Even Nafan is an old stager compared with Bolts. Like our young players, Bolts needs a few more seasons under his belt.

 

[PP34]

Valid point. We've also drafted too many tall intercept defenders. Now they are a liability the way the game is played with one on one's.

Following this discussion closely.

Er what?

Intercept defenders are of huge importance in today’s game. The game is not about 1 on 1s either. The Tigers just won a flag with an amazing tall defender who plays off his man in Rance plus Astbury and Grimes. Carlton’s problem is we lack another small defender. Finding one in the next few years shouldn’t be too hard.

You could argue that we could do with Oliver more than Weitering but they would have been insane to pass up on Jacob. He was widely regarded as one of the best ever junior defenders to come through.

Marchbank they simply couldn’t pass up and Macreadie came cheap. If we have one too many they can be traded.

I’d much rather one too many than having no elite key defender like in the Ratten days.

 

[bigm386]

I think the club had no choice to do what has been done since Bolton came on board.

The sad reality of it is we have very few players in their prime years who are any good. Our 25-29 year old range is practically non existent.

Yes we traded players like Thouhy and Henderson from this bracket. Amongst others. But in reality they are B grade players at best.

The club had a list full of holes from YEARS of putrid list management and recruitment. Just some that come to mind.
- Pick 7 for Boekhurst, Whiley and KJ
-Pick 11 for Brock McClean
-Pick 12 Kane Lucas
-Pick 22 Bootsma
-Pick 18 Matthew Watson
-2nd round pick and other picks for Robbie Warnock.

The modern game is simply about drafting and talent development. Adelaide and Port Adelaide are a good examples of it. You hit your picks or get lucky with Father son talent and you can build a premium list. Carlton frankly butchered the draft for years. We had more success with rookie picks than our early draft selections.....

Now we add in the players we lost to off field issues and go home factor which show exactly what a rabble we were behind closed doors. Fev, Robinson, Garlett, Bell, Sam Jacobs and although most aren't A graders they would all get a run on our list over the last 5-10 year period. (Fev a bit older granted).

Really the position of our list was so bad the only option was to salvage what we could. Get as many picks as we could and hope SOS found players.

Now I still believe SOS with picks like Willo and Garlett has shown we can find some dimonds in the rough. If the early picks come on as expected we should be ok

 

[Chookaradley]

What really worries me is whether there is something systematically wrong at the football club. AFLW team was completely rudderless despite having some star power. The senior mens side doesnt really look like winning a game, and the Northern blues on the weekend was the most putrid display I have ever seen.

We keep discussing the rebuild, and how we need this player or that player, but the question needs to asked. Is it something much deeper??.

 

[ArseClown]

What really worries me is whether there is something systematically wrong at the football club. AFLW team was completely rudderless despite having some star power. The senior mens side doesnt really look like winning a game, and the Northern blues on the weekend was the most putrid display I have ever seen.

We keep discussing the rebuild, and how we need this player or that player, but the question needs to asked. Is it something much deeper??.

I smell a conspiracy theory! So what has changed at the club this year that has upset all of the players and coaching staff? I know, the new CEO, it must be him! Let’s blame the new guy!


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Chookaradley]

I smell a conspiracy theory! So what has changed at the club this year that has upset all of the players and coaching staff? I know, the new CEO, it must be him! Let’s blame the new guy!

No conspiracy here. Just stating the facts. Im not expecting miracles, but yr 3 of the rebuild id expect us to be competitive. It can turn around quickly so hopefully it does.

On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[therubbernub]

fully expecting gaff to tell us to gagf.......both perth clubs on the ascendancy........

Not if nicnat nicks nastily his knee for the nth time. No nicnat no weagles

 

[PP34]

No, I agree. We could have gone the Hawthorn route. If you went back to last year, could we have trumped Sydney and got Mitchell? Probably - give up Petrevski-Seton and we get it done. Then our second last year (Fisher) + first this year (Dow) to trump the Hawks and get O'Meara. Then we keep Gibbs. Maybe rather than targetting Kennedy, we go for Jarman Impey instead like Hawthorn, as a ready-to-go running player. Still pick up Lang, etc.

How do we look with that line-up at full strength?

b: Plowman, Weitering, Docherty
hb: Simpson, Marchbank, Impey
c: Murphy, Cripps, O'Meara
hf: Wright, Curnow, Lang
f: Lamb, Casboult, Silvagni
Foll: Kreuzer, Mitchell, Gibbs
Bench: Curnow, Pickett, Thomas, Cuningham
Depth: Williamson, Garlett, Mullett,

How would that team fare? We would arguably be better off. Docherty out and Mullett in right now. We'd be probably similar to the Hawks - a top 8 contender, albeit with a worse coach.

So I feel we've missed a chance there. But going the other way isn't so bad - we have a massive group of 18-22 year-old players now. Those guys are probably 5 years off competing. That gives us 5 years to catch up...

Interesting comparison to Richmond. We went the Hawthorn route - signing Judd. Probably should have targetted another gun midfielder, although it was harder back then. They stayed low and built slowly, topping up 9 years later. We rose quickly, but lacked the depth to really compete, and have fallen back to the pits again. Now we're trying the Richmond route, with elements of GWS in there too. Having done so, getting rid of Gibbs was (probably) the right decision - we've picked up 3 extra players in the 18-22 age bracket as a result, which gives us a really big group who can go through together. But we're going to have some short-term pain, particularly with Docherty out.

Why act like Mitchell and O’Meara had any interest in Carlton?

They went to the Hawks for a reason. They’ve won four flags in a decade, they had just lost a semi final and they have a great coach.

About time some of you accepted that Carlton is no longer a powerhouse. We are not an attractive place for star talent right now. Guys like Mitchell, O’Meara etc want to be on teams winning games.

We are likely a number of years from being attractive to those types. Look at all the money North threw at Martin and Kelly and they still said no. The modern day player is wary of wasting his career playing for a team that goes nowhere.

My hope is that in two years we’re in the finals or very close and can be attractive to a Josh Kelly type.

 

[therubbernub]

I'm not sure I am comfortable with the idea that we need to be attuned to current "trends" or "climates". Teams don't become successful by chasing trends, the successful teams create the trends.
By the time a team has attuned to the successful formula which netted the last flag or two, generally you would find the game is already moving on. An approach which works one year won't necessarily work the next.

Building a list of quality players is what's needed. From there it's up to the coach to use those players in a way that maximizes their strengths and hopefully produces a winning style.

All you can do is coach the team according to your player strengths. Tigers werent planning to play small, it just turned out that way due to injuries to talls. I dont think the small forward line is sustainable, but it caught the competition napping and they won the big one. What never changes though is speed ,skill, pressure, good disposal. These apply whether you are big or small.

 

[PP34]

I also can’t believe some posters would even try to spin that the 2013/14 Blues were a team worth continuing on with. That’s just revisionist history. We hobbled into the finals in 2013 and were miles off the Hawks who were the team to beat around that time period.

Our best player was an ageing Chris Judd who lifted that side in that Richmond final.

That team infuriated me. It was a clear sign that 2003-2009 on the bottom was a complete waste of time.

 

[PP34]

All academic, and no doubt playing for a club with exceptional development helps a shitload, but it looks like all those advocating trading pick 5 for Tom Mitchell were spot on.

What makes you think Mitchell wanted to come and likely rot away at the Blues?

 

[DangerousD]

Always had a good base. We had nothing and a lot of average players. Once we get the base and have success we can do "mini" rebuilds but nothing like now if we are smart

Im of the opinion that top end draft picks are for top end talent, whether that top end talent is taken in the draft or traded in im not fussed. As long as the player brought in is a long term, 6-10 year prospect.

 

[DangerousD]

In our position it almost would be murder. The Hawks were a top team trying to prevent a slide by replacing guys like Mitchell, Lewis and Hodge.
You can't just look at top teams and say 'we should do that' when you don't have the supporting cattle.

The Hawks are rebuilding make no mistake about it, im more so trying to get across that theres nothing wrong with trading top picks as long as you get top players. By top players i mean guys who will play 6-10 seasons with us. The Hawks identified Mitchell and Omeara as players that would suit there structure and style and went and got them. IMO underpaying for Mitchell and slightly overpaying for Jaegar.

We have a good draft hand this year so if the club saw necessary to go after a Wines type i would have no issue offering a top 10 pick and more for him.

 

[DangerousD]

There are obvious problems around
Unreactive coaching
Lack of defensive pressure
Midfield strength, big bodies.

But it is fixable. This was never going to be a 3 or 4 season fix and coaching is the least of the problems. Put it this way the Herald Sun Mafia were far softer on Melbourne, Collingwood, Richmond and St Kilda 47 games after appointing a new coach

Softer on Collingwood? I almost feel sorry for Nathan with the crap he has been put through.

 

[King Cripps]

We all said it is a 66 game rebuild,so 2019 is the year we start climbing the ladder those supporters that think we were in for big year after losing Gibbs and Docherty are kidding themselves