The BIG Question Marks - What needs to go right to win The 2019 Cup...

Charlie Bucket

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#26
Imo

- we are that far from a flag it’s not funny

- even if some of the things people list above all go right best we would hope for is top 8

- the real question has to be - what other clubs do we need to fall in a hole for us to win the flag. Because too many people think it solely on wbd.

Analyse the other lists and the other sides and look at just how far behind we are coming from. So we need everything possible to go right for us and everything possible to go wrong for a few of the top 6 teams to be any chance imo
Were you not around in 2014/15/16, JJHunter ?
We were in a horrendous position after the 2014 season yet went close in 2015 and won the lot in 2016.
You’re suggesting we’re in a worst spot now than 2014. That’s pretty strange.

Why do you have this view ? Do you not rate the list ? Coaches ?
Are the other clubs that far ahead from where they were 2015/16 ?

Do tell, I’m interested to hear.
 

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Yojimbo

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#27
Interesting stuff as always Yojimbo, but what does it tell us that's relevant to our plans and endeavours for 2019?
  • That we only need our top 5 to score 146 goals and we should be OK?
  • That 2016 was a fluke statistical outlier and they need to score about the median (197) or the average (205) over the period 1990-2018 for us to be a decent chance?
  • That the Top Five Goalkickers is a random and meaningless stat and we should just be concentrating on winning matches, preferably with a hard and physical game style that's suited to a finals series?
What it tells us dogwatch is that there is more than one way to skin a cat, but to be relevant in 2019 and beyond we have to gain a
better balance between attack and defence to first and foremost make the top eight in the first place.

No other team has won it from seventh on the ladder so it was as you say it was a statistical outlier in 2016, but many athletes have
dominated leading up to the Olympics just to take the gas at "go time".

I could of done Top Fifteen goal kickers of which our total was 178, but it still a long way behind the Preliminary Final sides who had
totals of Melbourne 328, Collingwood 312, West Coast 301 and Richmond 298. Like it or not you can't buy the Goals from the likes
of Coles or even Aldi for that matter.
 

Dogs_R_Us

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#28
I think he started to get his mojo back towards the end of last season and he’s taken a much more hands on approach to this preseason... That twinkle in his eye is there again :)
Remember at the beginning of 2015, he said to the boys, "Get ready to ambush them." WCE iirc.
He needs to find a point of difference to exploit like he did with handball club and men of mayhem. Something new.
 

JJHunter

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#29
Were you not around in 2014/15/16, JJHunter ?
We were in a horrendous position after the 2014 season yet went close in 2015 and won the lot in 2016.
You’re suggesting we’re in a worst spot now than 2014. That’s pretty strange.

Why do you have this view ? Do you not rate the list ? Coaches ?
Are the other clubs that far ahead from where they were 2015/16 ?

Do tell, I’m interested to hear.

Went close in 2015 ? Are you kidding me ?
We are talking about the flag here and we were a fair way off it in 2015.

In 2016 we come off a finals birth and much closer to the flag at start of 2016 than we are right now ! So not sure why either of those years are relevant.

The question in the thread is about what we need to do to win it in 2019.
And I stand by the fact that everything possible needs to go right for us AND more importantly a lot needs to go wrong for a handful of other sides at the same time
 

Dazb86

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#30
Really need to find our mojo again with contested ball. We fell right off the boil last year.

Need some miraculous improvement up forward too
 

Mr. Walker

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#31
Really need to find our mojo again with contested ball. We fell right off the boil last year.

Need some miraculous improvement up forward too
Agree with this. Libba back to his best and one of Williams, McLean, or hopefully both, lifting their game to the next level and assisting a midfield of the Bont and Macrae plus an improving Dunkley and that is a lot of ball going our way. Midfields win games.
 

dogwatch

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#32
What it tells us dogwatch is that there is more than one way to skin a cat, but to be relevant in 2019 and beyond we have to gain a
better balance between attack and defence to first and foremost make the top eight in the first place.

No other team has won it from seventh on the ladder so it was as you say it was a statistical outlier in 2016, but many athletes have
dominated leading up to the Olympics just to take the gas at "go time".

I could of done Top Fifteen goal kickers of which our total was 178, but it still a long way behind the Preliminary Final sides who had
totals of Melbourne 328, Collingwood 312, West Coast 301 and Richmond 298. Like it or not you can't buy the Goals from the likes
of Coles or even Aldi for that matter.
But doesn't that just boil down to the truism that the sides that kick the most goals win the most matches?

Honestly, I don't think it matters if we regularly spread our goalkicking over about a dozen players, or we just concentrate them on our TFGKs. Just as long as we kick a lot more goals than we did in 2017.
 

Yojimbo

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#33
But doesn't that just boil down to the truism that the sides that kick the most goals win the most matches?

Honestly, I don't think it matters if we regularly spread our goalkicking over about a dozen players, or we just concentrate them on our TFGKs. Just as long as we kick a lot more goals than we did in 2017.
2018 dogwatch, the impact of this reset 6-6-6 rule will impact a teams ability to get too funky running numbers off half back or playing a plus one or two
in the defensive end, this should create more static goals or place more importance on the static goals. This has not been a historically strong area for
some teams in recent years and has me questioning game plans in a positional sense, going to be a good watch year to see who is favoured and who
struggles big time. 2017 was pretty poor too come to think of it.
 

mcgleereturns

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#35
2018 dogwatch, the impact of this reset 6-6-6 rule will impact a teams ability to get too funky running numbers off half back or playing a plus one or two
in the defensive end, this should create more static goals or place more importance on the static goals. This has not been a historically strong area for
some teams in recent years and has me questioning game plans in a positional sense, going to be a good watch year to see who is favoured and who
struggles big time. 2017 was pretty poor too come to think of it.
That new rule had escaped my thoughts. Will be interesting what impact it actually makes. I didn’t pay to much attention to how it works. It’s only for restart after goal right? How rigid is it? Where can the wings stand? Do they have to line up with the centre circle or just anywhere along the line of the square?


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Yojimbo

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#36
That new rule had escaped my thoughts. Will be interesting what impact it actually makes. I didn’t pay to much attention to how it works. It’s only for restart after goal right? How rigid is it? Where can the wings stand? Do they have to line up with the centre circle or just anywhere along the line of the square?


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You have to have 6 players in each 50 arc (Forward and Back) including one in the goal square, 4 in the middle as per normal and two traditional
wingers. The possible configurations and then the switch to normal transition will be fascinating, will the centre clearance numbers become more
pivotal or will teams just block up the initial phase and move into the stoppage clearance phase as quickly as possible. Will the impulse to set up
behind the ball be affected or will it just be a momentary reset awaiting normal transmission. Hopefully they can lengthen the ground and place
more focus on contests one on one ahead and behind the ball, but don't hold your breathe the coaches like things their way a win is a win for
them no matter how it looks. I think they will need to hold players in zones eventually just like the TAC cup because it is easier to win through
defensive tactics.
 

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#37
What ever we do we need to do it differently to the rest of the competition.
Every premiership side does things differently to everyone else and that's where they gain their advantage.
Hawks had the web, and the short kicking - We had the handball and third man up - Richmond ratcheted up the pressure and had one recognised ruckman along with Grigg...

With the new rules you can't flood so Plough and Rocket's idea from 20 years ago will not be seen again.
We need to take our deficiencies and turn them into advantages.
If we have a small forward line then lower the eyes coming into 50 and hit up some speedy small targets. Make the big guys the decoys rather than the targets.
I don't know... anything, just be different and do it well.
 
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#38
If the likes of Dickson, Gowers and Lloyd can chip in with 20-30 goals each it will certainly help. I'd throw Picken into this group as well if he gets back to 100%. Schache should be good for 30-40 goals with further improvement and if he played every game last season he would have ended up around that mark.

But as someone said earlier, if the midfield is fit and firing we'll be back in finals contention. Gun midfields win games simple as that. Liberatore back plus further improvement from the likes of Mclean and Dunkley should keep the team in good stead.
 

Sharkey66

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#39
Agree - 5-6 at 30+ would be a big improvement but Gowers would have got there if he played all games (I think?) Schache also on track so 3-5 more.

So that’s 2.

Both Greene and Boyd will easily get a goal a game - one of these likely.

Greene’s start was very good - he just seems to be really hard to match up on and if he kicked straight (probably nerves because generally good). He also is a crazy athlete who can run almost any player into the ground.

If Boyd stays 70/30 forward we get 2 goals a game - especially now with Schache and Gowers and perhaps Greene spreading the defence.

1 of these will kick 30 - so that’s 3.

Out of LLoyd, Dickson and Picken we will get 30 goals. Dickson the best forward, Picken the best player and Lloyd can cover for both so we will have and experienced head forward also.

So that’s 4.

Bont would walk it in if he played 70/30 forward - eventually he will likely move at least 50/50 given the strength we could have if West and Smith turn out as hoped and Dunks and McLean keep going forward. With the addition of Libba he will likely spend much more time forward.

Here’s my prediction - he starts as CHF and then goes where he likes....kicks 50 and we have to pay him $1.5m a season and we don’t hesitate!

[Likely Mids ex Bont - Macrae, Hunter, McLean, Libba, Dunks, Daniel]

So good chance of 5.


So the other one....

Dale - easy to forget how good he was and how well he was improving. Great lead and ultimately will replace Dickson. He will go close and will also rotate on the wing with Red who knows where the sticks are. Smith May also play a fair bit of half forward.

Cavarro is a real goer and while it is a big step up and we can’t expect instant success from VFL - he just seems to have something we miss and if he can make the big fellas fly for the ball and get crumbs and tackle he will be worth more than the pure number. West May also play there.

The other forward who will come forward is Pat Lipinski - this will be a breakout year for him - he has a silk we will have little of and is a smart player. Not sure where he fits but injuries will give him chances.

What will also be interesting will be the game style -

- do we go high pressure lots of shots aka 2015/16.

- Do we utilise our talls and play a more open forward line with 3-4 playing as flankers driving the ball in to 2-3.

- do we play Daniel as the 7th defender like the former Hawthorn captain

- or play a loose forward across the ground working from defence - like Greene or Dale

So why not last year? We went from a top contested ball and clearance team to down the bottom. If you have to either scrap or win back the ball you aren’t going to kick a lot of goals. We also transitioned from Stringer to Schache and it took the whole year. Reports are that we will keep going forward. But not having Jake there took away any panic. Gowers did his best but he is not there yet
Underating Wallis again , was one of our better forwards once he was committed to being played as such. 20 goals from 18 games not a bad return considering a few of his early season games were played as a midfielder.
 

paulveed

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#41
Underating Wallis again , was one of our better forwards once he was committed to being played as such. 20 goals from 18 games not a bad return considering a few of his early season games were played as a midfielder.
With Wal., it is not just goals he kicks himself when in the front 50, he either supplies, or at the very least, has a significant involvement in a high % of goals kicked by other Doggies. In 18 he was our most influential forward, with handballs, tackles, blocks/shepherds, creating space for either himself or others, and generally marshalling his younger teammates.
 
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#44
i dont get why everyone is obsessed with winning the flag every year. we won it not long ago. let another team who hasnt won it for a while have a go. we will win one again soon because we have bont and macrae. i just hope the boys crack in and give it their best go and whatever happens im okay with.
Huh!
 

JJHunter

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#46
What ever we do we need to do it differently to the rest of the competition.
Every premiership side does things differently to everyone else and that's where they gain their advantage.
Hawks had the web, and the short kicking - We had the handball and third man up - Richmond ratcheted up the pressure and had one recognised ruckman along with Grigg...

With the new rules you can't flood so Plough and Rocket's idea from 20 years ago will not be seen again.
We need to take our deficiencies and turn them into advantages.
If we have a small forward line then lower the eyes coming into 50 and hit up some speedy small targets. Make the big guys the decoys rather than the targets.
I don't know... anything, just be different and do it well.
Don’t be fooled - you can still flood - yeh it’s harder but 6-6-6 at centre bounces not stopping a flood. All lines just shift back one the minute the ball is bounced
 
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#48
Went close in 2015 ? Are you kidding me ?
We are talking about the flag here and we were a fair way off it in 2015.

In 2016 we come off a finals birth and much closer to the flag at start of 2016 than we are right now ! So not sure why either of those years are relevant.

The question in the thread is about what we need to do to win it in 2019.
And I stand by the fact that everything possible needs to go right for us AND more importantly a lot needs to go wrong for a handful of other sides at the same time
**** oath we went close in 2015. Only taking ladder position in to consideration really is deer with no eyes stuff.
We were good that year and were hitting our straps going in to Crows game. We bottled it somehow and the rest is history.
I think where 2014/15 is relevant is that your view on where the team is at would slot comfortably in to WB BF threads circa Nov 2014 without anyone batting an eyelid.
I suppose the strange thing for me is your post suggests we’re years away from even contending.
Were you just adding some sugar or do actually think this team is that far away ?

Edit: delayed post as your reply slipped through to the keeper.
 
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Dogs_R_Us

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#50
**** oath we went close in 2015. Only taking ladder position in to consideration really is deer with no eyes stuff.
We were good that year and were hitting our straps going in to Crows game. We bottled it somehow and the rest is history.
I think where 2014/15 is relevant is that your view on where the team is at would slot comfortably in to WB BF threads circa Nov 2014 without anyone batting an eyelid.
I suppose the strange thing for me is your post suggests we’re years away from even contending.
Were you just adding some sugar or do actually think this team is that far away ?

Edit: delayed post as your reply slipped through to the keeper.
Bevo and the boys were devastated that they got beaten by Adelaide. They firmly believed they could have gone much further.
 
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