The BIG Question Marks - What needs to go right to win The 2019 Cup...

[Mattie2016]

Can we win the 2019 Premiership? Yes.

But in order to do so, the following question marks need a positive result:

1. Can we maintain a heathy list (fewer injuries to consistently gain continuity and our best players on the field)?

2. Can we establish greater 'expertise' in player positions, rather than expanding on the 'flexibility' mantra (eg: Boyd and Schache to be specialist forwards)?

3. Can Picken overcome his concussion to get back on the park?

What else are the critical concerns that need to go our way?...

 

[paulveed]

Can we win the 2019 Premiership? Yes.

But in order to do so, the following question marks need a positive result:

1. Can we maintain a heathy list (fewer injuries to consistently gain continuity and our best players on the field)?

2. Can we establish greater 'expertise' in player positions, rather than expanding on the 'flexibility' mantra (eg: Boyd and Schache to be specialist forwards)?

3. Can Picken overcome his concussion to get back on the park?

What else are the critical concerns that need to go our way?...

I'd love to see Liam back out there, provided it doesn't put his future health at risk.
I agree that your other 2 points will be necessary.

I'd add : 1. No 'second year blues' for Naughton, Richards etc.
2. Continued growth with our U/23 group.
3. Have having the assistant/line coaches in their best roles for team development, rather than where
it might be in the interest of their personal professional development.

 

[Mattdougie]

If the coaching structure is 2016 model we can make the bottom two of the top 8.

If it is 17-18 we will finish bottom 4.

 

[mcgleereturns]

Easton Wood fit and back to 2015-16 levels.
JJ an solve the hard tag riddle and consistently give us the run out of backline.
Morris considers retirement because Naugnton becomes so good, Cordy continues to develop and Young treats every team like Carlton in 2017
Bontempelli‘s body recovers so that he can move freely every week and returns to “You know who it is!” Bruce status
Gowers or one of our potential small/medium forwards can replace Dicksons 40-50 goal ‘15-16 Years
We don’t allow teams to stream out of our forward half and rediscover that pressure we had in 2016
Smith and West have first seasons as good as Bont and Griffen did.
Boyd and Schache become key forwards.
January is dedicated to goal kicking practice and kicking skills.




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[ScragCity]

Delet this

 

[Mattie2016]

Delet this

Eh?

 

[ScragCity]

i dont get why everyone is obsessed with winning the flag every year. we won it not long ago. let another team who hasnt won it for a while have a go. we will win one again soon because we have bont and macrae. i just hope the boys crack in and give it their best go and whatever happens im okay with.

 

[Northernsoul74]

A robust game plan that really nails the rule changes. If we can adapt and structure right early on for the new rules we’ll up there.

 

[Mattie2016]

i dont get why everyone is obsessed with winning the flag every year. we won it not long ago. let another team who hasnt won it for a while have a go. we will win one again soon because we have bont and macrae. i just hope the boys crack in and give it their best go and whatever happens im okay with.

Why do people want to win the flag? Because it is the aim and aspiration and primary reason why the team plays. We should never have the attitude of just playing to make up the numbers. All supporters should embrace the same attitude as the players and coaches, believe and want to win the ultimate every year.

 

[maddog37]

Bev getting his mojo back.

 

[Bazza Bulldog]

i dont get why everyone is obsessed with winning the flag every year. we won it not long ago. let another team who hasnt won it for a while have a go. we will win one again soon because we have bont and macrae. i just hope the boys crack in and give it their best go and whatever happens im okay with.

Scrag - I'm out you as BMac ... what chance the Dees in 2019?

 

[Yojimbo]

Top Five Goal Kickers in 2018.

Collingwood 195 Goals
Richmond 191 Goals
West Coast 189 Goals
Hawthorn 185 Goals
Melbourne 181 Goals
North Melbourne 166 Goals
Sydney 158 Goals
Geelong 157 Goals

GWS 136 Goals
Adelaide 133 Goals
Port Adelaide 129 Goals
Brisbane 126 Goals
St Kilda 117 Goals
Essendon 114 Goals
Fremantle 99 Goals
Carlton 99 Goals
Western Bulldogs 97 Goals
Gold Coast 96 Goals

Now I know that the Goals kick themselves, but no need to ask too many questions.
If we cannot average a paltry 20 Goals per members of our top five goal kickers at
the very minimum then the hot air is not going Into our balloon. Thank God for the
Gold Coast Suns, but Fremantles leading goal kicker was Michael Walters with a
ground breaking 22 Goals and even they beat us. Must kick at least 150 Goals in
your top five goal kickers to play finals, we need help badly in this area. Happy
New Year everyone !

 

[mcgleereturns]

Top Five Goal Kickers in 2018.

Collingwood 195 Goals
Richmond 191 Goals
West Coast 189 Goals
Hawthorn 185 Goals
Melbourne 181 Goals
North Melbourne 166 Goals
Sydney 158 Goals
Geelong 157 Goals

GWS 136 Goals
Adelaide 133 Goals
Port Adelaide 129 Goals
Brisbane 126 Goals
St Kilda 117 Goals
Essendon 114 Goals
Fremantle 99 Goals
Carlton 99 Goals
Western Bulldogs 97 Goals
Gold Coast 96 Goals

Now I know that the Goals kick themselves, but no need to ask too many questions.
If we cannot average a paltry 20 Goals per members of our top five goal kickers at
the very minimum then the hot air is not going Into our balloon. Thank God for the
Gold Coast Suns, but Fremantles leading goal kicker was Michael Walters with a
ground breaking 22 Goals and even they beat us. Must kick at least 150 Goals in
your top five goal kickers to play finals, we need help badly in this area. Happy
New Year everyone !

Excellent point. Could do with the 85 forward line - 270 goals from top 5, 306 from top 6. Times change! But even 2016’s top five didn’t crack 150 and 3 of them are gone (Stringer, Redpath and Clay) Dickson on last legs and Bont needs to rediscover his set shot. We got to find some improvement somewhere.


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[Dogs_R_Us]

i dont get why everyone is obsessed with winning the flag every year. we won it not long ago. let another team who hasnt won it for a while have a go. we will win one again soon because we have bont and macrae. i just hope the boys crack in and give it their best go and whatever happens im okay with.

Riiiiight.... we know we all want St Failda, norf, Failmantle and the dees to win one soon, our hearts bleed for them.

 

[True Dog]

Bev getting his mojo back.

I think he started to get his mojo back towards the end of last season and he’s taken a much more hands on approach to this preseason... That twinkle in his eye is there again

 

[Mattie2016]

Excellent point. Could do with the 85 forward line - 270 goals from top 5, 306 from top 6. Times change! But even 2016’s top five didn’t crack 150 and 3 of them are gone (Stringer, Redpath and Clay) Dickson on last legs and Bont needs to rediscover his set shot. We got to find some improvement somewhere.


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I am happy for our mids to contribute, as it's not crucial who kicks them, just as long as we score.

Having said that, I see Boyd and Schache as being our best avenues if they remain as specialist forwards, as has been forecast. We then have multiple likely options: Gowers, Llyod, Cavarra, Lipinski, Greene and Dickson + Picken who loom as the critical unknowns. If the latter duo are fit, then we will be very formidable.

 

[mcgleereturns]

Picken and Dickson are bonuses if fit and sustainable in 2019 but they are short term options. We need 2019 to be a year of developing Schache, hopefully Boyd and then the young small/medium forwards along with major impacts from Bont, Wallis and Maclean and solid contributions from Macrae and Hunter. There’s no Beasley in that group but 1985 had 50 from Bamblett and 35-39 from Edmond, Royal, McPherson and Buhagiar. A bunch of 30s from our eclectic mix of forwards and some goal scoring mids will help.


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[NthBondiDoggies]

What if - rather than injuries we get the kind of dream run that Richmond got when they grabbed the flag?

Our form last year as players returned was good enough for us to make the eight - plus we saw Dunks emerge as the inside bull we have wanted, Naughton and Red jumped out do the blocks and Schache started to really show something.

The recruiting team appears to have worked this way - we missed Dickson - so now we have Lloyd and Dickson that would both need to be injured for us not have any forward experience. Duryea covers for Wood in the same way.

We have two young rucks to come through and address what must be one Of our worst stats - hit outs to advantage.

Need speed - we add Smith ( and a couple of others)

Need a new Clay - we loved him but injuries did him over - enter Rhylee West.

Contested ball dropped off alarmingly - enter the best - Libba.

Will need a long term Wood replacement - enter Buku (and he grows three cms)

Tall defenders are a bit of a likely weakness but some chat that Young is coming on well this preseason. fletch is a premiership CHB but not exactly McGovern. Naughton is but will need another 195+ help. Cordy is great and a long term Morris lock but at 193 and his weight is just not big enough.

Taking out established stars - In development we have a development squad with every player still having heaps of development in them:

Gowers Boyd Cavarro
Lipinski Schache Greene

English Williams West
Dale Dunks McLean

Khamis Young Daniel
Red Naughton Cordy

B.Smith, Lynch, Webb, LJ

[+R.Smith, Hayes, Porter, Vandermeer, Sweet, L.Young]

So what do we need? A fair go in injuries and continued development.

 

[Whoyagot]

Just need the young forwards to show something and we’ll bounce. Need 30+ from about 5-6 options to make finals. The most likely in my mind are Schache, Gowers and Bont plus potentially Dale, Lloyd, Cav and McLean if he plays more forward. I’d pencil Picken and Dickson in for 30+ if they play full seasons but that’s extremely unlikely.

 

[NthBondiDoggies]

Just need the young forwards to show something and we’ll bounce. Need 30+ from about 5-6 options to make finals. The most likely in my mind are Schache, Gowers and Bont plus potentially Dale, Lloyd, Cav and McLean if he plays more forward. I’d pencil Picken and Dickson in for 30+ if they play full seasons but that’s extremely unlikely.

Agree - 5-6 at 30+ would be a big improvement but Gowers would have got there if he played all games (I think?) Schache also on track so 3-5 more.

So that’s 2.

Both Greene and Boyd will easily get a goal a game - one of these likely.

Greene’s start was very good - he just seems to be really hard to match up on and if he kicked straight (probably nerves because generally good). He also is a crazy athlete who can run almost any player into the ground.

If Boyd stays 70/30 forward we get 2 goals a game - especially now with Schache and Gowers and perhaps Greene spreading the defence.

1 of these will kick 30 - so that’s 3.

Out of LLoyd, Dickson and Picken we will get 30 goals. Dickson the best forward, Picken the best player and Lloyd can cover for both so we will have and experienced head forward also.

So that’s 4.

Bont would walk it in if he played 70/30 forward - eventually he will likely move at least 50/50 given the strength we could have if West and Smith turn out as hoped and Dunks and McLean keep going forward. With the addition of Libba he will likely spend much more time forward.

Here’s my prediction - he starts as CHF and then goes where he likes....kicks 50 and we have to pay him $1.5m a season and we don’t hesitate!

[Likely Mids ex Bont - Macrae, Hunter, McLean, Libba, Dunks, Daniel]

So good chance of 5.


So the other one....

Dale - easy to forget how good he was and how well he was improving. Great lead and ultimately will replace Dickson. He will go close and will also rotate on the wing with Red who knows where the sticks are. Smith May also play a fair bit of half forward.

Cavarro is a real goer and while it is a big step up and we can’t expect instant success from VFL - he just seems to have something we miss and if he can make the big fellas fly for the ball and get crumbs and tackle he will be worth more than the pure number. West May also play there.

The other forward who will come forward is Pat Lipinski - this will be a breakout year for him - he has a silk we will have little of and is a smart player. Not sure where he fits but injuries will give him chances.

What will also be interesting will be the game style -

- do we go high pressure lots of shots aka 2015/16.

- Do we utilise our talls and play a more open forward line with 3-4 playing as flankers driving the ball in to 2-3.

- do we play Daniel as the 7th defender like the former Hawthorn captain

- or play a loose forward across the ground working from defence - like Greene or Dale

So why not last year? We went from a top contested ball and clearance team to down the bottom. If you have to either scrap or win back the ball you aren’t going to kick a lot of goals. We also transitioned from Stringer to Schache and it took the whole year. Reports are that we will keep going forward. But not having Jake there took away any panic. Gowers did his best but he is not there yet

 

[Yojimbo]

Top Five Goal Kickers 1990 to 2018 (An epic journey)

2018- 97 Goals Premier West Coast (2nd) TFGK = 189
2017- 103 Goals Premier Richmond (3rd) TFGK = 172
2016- 146 Goals (Flag) Premier Western Bulldogs (7th) TFGK = 146 (Yeah)
2015- 174 Goals Premier Hawthorn (3rd) TFGK = 230
2014- 110 Goals Premier Hawthorn (2nd) TFGK = 236
2013- 127 Goals Premier Hawthorn (1st) TFGK = 238
2012- 98 Goals Premier Sydney (3rd) TFGK = 172
2011- 160 Goals Premier Geelong (2nd) TFGK = 190
2010- 188 Goals Premier Collingwood (1st) TFGK = 162
2009- 183 Goals Premier Geelong (2nd) TFGK = 189
2008- 210 Goals Premier Hawthorn (2nd) TFGK = 285
2007- 155 Goals Premier Geelong (1st) TFGK = 212
2006- 198 Goals Premier West Coast (1st) TFGK = 178
2005- 160 Goals Premier Sydney (3rd) TFGK = 224
2004- 135 Goals Premier Port Adelaide (1st) TFGK = 191
2003- 159 Goals Premier Brisbane (3rd) TFGK = 188
2002- 179 Goals Premier Brisbane (2nd) TFGK = 231
2001- 184 Goals Premier Brisbane (2nd) TFGK = 196
2000- 179 Goals Premier Essendon (1st) TFGK = 269
1999- 185 Goals Premier North Melbourne (2nd) TFGK = 216
1998- 200 Goals Premier Adelaide (5th) TFGK = 163
1997- 169 Goals Premier Adelaide (4th) TFGK = 197
1996- 133 Goals Premier North Melbourne (2nd) TFGK = 199
1995- 164 Goals Premier Carlton (1st) TFGK = 208
1994- 166 Goals Premier West Coast (1st) TFGK = 174
1993- 130 Goals Premier Essendon (1st) TFGK = 212
1992- 239 Goals Premier West Coast (4th) TFGK = 173
1991- 122 Goals Premier Hawthorn (2nd) TFGK = 266
1990- 148 Goals Premier Collingwood (2nd) TFGK = 237

So in the AFL era we scored more goals than in our premiership year for the top five goal kickers
a subtle nineteen times, God help us we scored more nineteen times, fascinating.

 

[JJHunter]

Imo

- we are that far from a flag it’s not funny

- even if some of the things people list above all go right best we would hope for is top 8

- the real question has to be - what other clubs do we need to fall in a hole for us to win the flag. Because too many people think it solely on wbd.

Analyse the other lists and the other sides and look at just how far behind we are coming from. So we need everything possible to go right for us and everything possible to go wrong for a few of the top 6 teams to be any chance imo

 

[dogwatch]

Top Five Goal Kickers 1990 to 2018 (An epic journey)

2018- 97 Goals Premier West Coast (2nd) TFGK = 189
2017- 103 Goals Premier Richmond (3rd) TFGK = 172
2016- 146 Goals (Flag) Premier Western Bulldogs (7th) TFGK = 146 (Yeah)
2015- 174 Goals Premier Hawthorn (3rd) TFGK = 230
2014- 110 Goals Premier Hawthorn (2nd) TFGK = 236
2013- 127 Goals Premier Hawthorn (1st) TFGK = 238
2012- 98 Goals Premier Sydney (3rd) TFGK = 172
2011- 160 Goals Premier Geelong (2nd) TFGK = 190
2010- 188 Goals Premier Collingwood (1st) TFGK = 162
2009- 183 Goals Premier Geelong (2nd) TFGK = 189
2008- 210 Goals Premier Hawthorn (2nd) TFGK = 285
2007- 155 Goals Premier Geelong (1st) TFGK = 212
2006- 198 Goals Premier West Coast (1st) TFGK = 178
2005- 160 Goals Premier Sydney (3rd) TFGK = 224
2004- 135 Goals Premier Port Adelaide (1st) TFGK = 191
2003- 159 Goals Premier Brisbane (3rd) TFGK = 188
2002- 179 Goals Premier Brisbane (2nd) TFGK = 231
2001- 184 Goals Premier Brisbane (2nd) TFGK = 196
2000- 179 Goals Premier Essendon (1st) TFGK = 269
1999- 185 Goals Premier North Melbourne (2nd) TFGK = 216
1998- 200 Goals Premier Adelaide (5th) TFGK = 163
1997- 169 Goals Premier Adelaide (4th) TFGK = 197
1996- 133 Goals Premier North Melbourne (2nd) TFGK = 199
1995- 164 Goals Premier Carlton (1st) TFGK = 208
1994- 166 Goals Premier West Coast (1st) TFGK = 174
1993- 130 Goals Premier Essendon (1st) TFGK = 212
1992- 239 Goals Premier West Coast (4th) TFGK = 173
1991- 122 Goals Premier Hawthorn (2nd) TFGK = 266
1990- 148 Goals Premier Collingwood (2nd) TFGK = 237

So in the AFL era we scored more goals than in our premiership year for the top five goal kickers
a subtle nineteen times, God help us we scored more nineteen times, fascinating.

Interesting stuff as always Yojimbo, but what does it tell us that's relevant to our plans and endeavours for 2019?

• That we only need our top 5 to score 146 goals and we should be OK?
• That 2016 was a fluke statistical outlier and they need to score about the median (197) or the average (205) over the period 1990-2018 for us to be a decent chance?
• That the Top Five Goalkickers is a random and meaningless stat and we should just be concentrating on winning matches, preferably with a hard and physical game style that's suited to a finals series?

 

[perro_loco]

I think we need the following:
1. a good team structure with massive forward pressure ala 2016.
2. a gameplan that is an improvement on last year's two top teams.
3. zero injuries and fierce competition for positions by the players.
4. LUCK. every afl team that wins the flag, no matter how good they are needs luck.

 

[Fossie 32]

NOOO injuries