Analysis The Bigger Picture

[Rancid Trogs]

2014 ESSENDON LIST:

SENIOR:

FF: Daniher - Ambrose - Chapman
HF: Z.Merrett - Carlisle - Winderlich
C: Goddard - Heppell - Zaharakis
R: Hocking - Ryder - Watson
HB: Hibberd - Hooker - Dempsey
FB: Baguley - Hurley - Fletcher
IC: Stanton - Myers - Melksham
S: Gleeson

RESERVE:

FF: Bellchambers - Dell’Olio - Kommer
HF: Jetta - Hardingham - Fantasia
C: Browne - Howlett - J.Merrett
R: O’Brien - Thurlow - Kavanagh
HB: Edwards - Gregory - Van Unen
FB: Ashby - Steinberg - Pears
IC: Colyer - Aylett - Dalgleish
S: Hams - Rayner

ISSUES:
- Lack of quality third tall forward (Ambrose upgrade)
- Lack of elite small forward (Chapman replacement)
- Lack of a mid sized intercept half back
- Lack of outside leg speed / skill combo
- Lack of third tall defender (Fletcher replacement)
- Lack of KPF at reserve level
- General lack of class at reserve level / excess list cloggers

I see our ‘premiership window’ coinciding with our twin towers (Daniher and Carlisle) reaching a stage where both are able to consistently play and impact games at AFL level. This is probably at least another full season away (2016 and beyond is what I’d be looking at realistically). This means we need to develop a list to rival what GCS and GWS have.

Some suggest you don’t need at genuine small forward. I would suggest an elite small forward that kicks / sets up goals and provides high quality defensive pressure is key. Your two HFF must be able to be a part of the midfield rotation as well as dangerous up forward. Crozier from Freo is the man we must target. Elite speed, agility and leap. Footskills sublime. Good overhead and offers defensive pressure. Potentially send Dempsey north for pick #30 and use it to trade for Crozier.

The mid sized forward is important for our structure. With Daniher and Carlisle both giant KPF, we need a third tall that is also good at ground level and can apply defensive pressure. Ambrose, while impressive and a useful reserve KPF grunt, is not the quality we need between Daniher and Carlisle. Membrey from Syd is the one. Clean hands in the air and on the deck. Good skills. Dead eye goal kicker. Will come cheap.

Fletcher and Chapman will be retired before the Daniher / Carlisle combo begins to flourish, thus needing replacement.

Watson and Goddard I see as having roles in the next three seasons, meaning they will be around for the beginning of ‘the window’. Stanton I see as going downhill from this part of his career and needing to be upgraded by someone with greater leg speed and disposal damage.

A quality third defender that can intercept mark, set up play, but also beat his man is required to replace Fletcher. Perhaps the 2015 draft??

From other clubs, I would be targeting 4 players: T.Membrey (SYD), H.Crozier (FRE), M.Buntine and J.O’Rourke (GWS). O’Rourke adds much needed class and speed. Buntine is a quality shut down, rebounding and intercepting half back. At 189cm can play tall and small. Good athlete. These two wont come cheap. May need to use Bellchambers and a fringe mid (J.Merrett, Melksham, Stanton) to get them.

Players I would be open to trading: Dempsey, Baguley, Melksham, Stanton, Bellchambers, J.Merrett and Colyer.

Players I would be looking to delist: Dell’Olio, Kommer, Jetta, Hardingham, Van Unen and Dalgleish.

With our 2014 draft picks I would look at:
#19: Weller, Menadue, De Goey, Duggan
#48: Keitel, Cockatoo, Ellis, Smith
#66: Ruckman
Rookie: Speculative class mid (hopefully J.Long is this!)

So, at the beginning of 2016, I would like to see (to attain the players from other clubs, some of our tradables will need to be cut from our reserve list):

SENIOR:

FF: Daniher - Membrey - Crozier
HF: Z.Merrett - Carlisle - Weller
C: Goddard - Heppell - Zaharakis
R: Hocking - Ryder - Watson
HB: Buntine - Hooker - Ashby
FB: Hibberd - Hurley - Pears
IC: Myers - O’Rourke - Kavanagh
S: Gleeson

RESERVE:

FF: Bellchambers - Keitel - Colyer
HF: J.Merrett - Ambrose - Fantasia
C: Dempsey - Howlett - Stanton
R: O’Brien - Thurlow - Melksham
HB: Edwards - Gregory - Dalgleish
FB: Baguley - Steinberg - Van Unen
IC: Browne - Aylett - Hams
S: Rayner

Discuss.

 

[Big Fresh]

Lack of a mid sized intercept half back? Hibberd is close to the best in that role in the league.

 

[vaughany]

2014 ESSENDON LIST:

SENIOR:

FF: Daniher - Ambrose - Chapman
HF: Z.Merrett - Carlisle - Winderlich
C: Goddard - Heppell - Zaharakis
R: Hocking - Ryder - Watson
HB: Hibberd - Hooker - Dempsey
FB: Baguley - Hurley - Fletcher
IC: Stanton - Myers - Melksham
S: Gleeson

RESERVE:

FF: Bellchambers - Dell’Olio - Kommer
HF: Jetta - Hardingham - Fantasia
C: Browne - Howlett - J.Merrett
R: O’Brien - Thurlow - Kavanagh
HB: Edwards - Gregory - Van Unen
FB: Ashby - Steinberg - Pears
IC: Colyer - Aylett - Dalgleish
S: Hams - Rayner

ISSUES:
- Lack of quality third tall forward (Ambrose upgrade)
- Lack of elite small forward (Chapman replacement)
- Lack of a mid sized intercept half back
- Lack of outside leg speed / skill combo
- Lack of third tall defender (Fletcher replacement)
- Lack of KPF at reserve level
- General lack of class at reserve level / excess list cloggers

I see our ‘premiership window’ coinciding with our twin towers (Daniher and Carlisle) reaching a stage where both are able to consistently play and impact games at AFL level. This is probably at least another full season away (2016 and beyond is what I’d be looking at realistically). This means we need to develop a list to rival what GCS and GWS have.

Some suggest you don’t need at genuine small forward. I would suggest an elite small forward that kicks / sets up goals and provides high quality defensive pressure is key. Your two HFF must be able to be a part of the midfield rotation as well as dangerous up forward. Crozier from Freo is the man we must target. Elite speed, agility and leap. Footskills sublime. Good overhead and offers defensive pressure. Potentially send Dempsey north for pick #30 and use it to trade for Crozier.

The mid sized forward is important for our structure. With Daniher and Carlisle both giant KPF, we need a third tall that is also good at ground level and can apply defensive pressure. Ambrose, while impressive and a useful reserve KPF grunt, is not the quality we need between Daniher and Carlisle. Membrey from Syd is the one. Clean hands in the air and on the deck. Good skills. Dead eye goal kicker. Will come cheap.

Fletcher and Chapman will be retired before the Daniher / Carlisle combo begins to flourish, thus needing replacement.

Watson and Goddard I see as having roles in the next three seasons, meaning they will be around for the beginning of ‘the window’. Stanton I see as going downhill from this part of his career and needing to be upgraded by someone with greater leg speed and disposal damage.

A quality third defender that can intercept mark, set up play, but also beat his man is required to replace Fletcher. Perhaps the 2015 draft??

From other clubs, I would be targeting 4 players: T.Membrey (SYD), H.Crozier (FRE), M.Buntine and J.O’Rourke (GWS). O’Rourke adds much needed class and speed. Buntine is a quality shut down, rebounding and intercepting half back. At 189cm can play tall and small. Good athlete. These two wont come cheap. May need to use Bellchambers and a fringe mid (J.Merrett, Melksham, Stanton) to get them.

Players I would be open to trading: Dempsey, Baguley, Melksham, Stanton, Bellchambers, J.Merrett and Colyer.

Players I would be looking to delist: Dell’Olio, Kommer, Jetta, Hardingham, Van Unen and Dalgleish.

With our 2014 draft picks I would look at:
#19: Weller, Menadue, De Goey, Duggan
#48: Keitel, Cockatoo, Ellis, Smith
#66: Ruckman
Rookie: Speculative class mid (hopefully J.Long is this!)

So, at the beginning of 2016, I would like to see (to attain the players from other clubs, some of our tradables will need to be cut from our reserve list):

SENIOR:

FF: Daniher - Membrey - Crozier
HF: Z.Merrett - Carlisle - Weller
C: Goddard - Heppell - Zaharakis
R: Hocking - Ryder - Watson
HB: Buntine - Hooker - Ashby
FB: Hibberd - Hurley - Pears
IC: Myers - O’Rourke - Kavanagh
S: Gleeson

RESERVE:

FF: Bellchambers - Keitel - Colyer
HF: J.Merrett - Ambrose - Fantasia
C: Dempsey - Howlett - Stanton
R: O’Brien - Thurlow - Melksham
HB: Edwards - Gregory - Dalgleish
FB: Baguley - Steinberg - Van Unen
IC: Browne - Aylett - Hams
S: Rayner

Discuss.

Pretty in depth analysis should send resume in for list manager job

 

[yaco55]

Interesting to see Rancid Tongs has gone conservative with trade bait. I doubt that speed is a priority - We have enough speedy players on our list - Think we need smarter players - And what i mean is players who make good decisions in the forward half - It's no coincidence that we rank 16th or 17th in forward 50 efficiency. Smart players are the priority.

 

[blitzer]

In my view the biggest issue is consistency. We simply have too many players who can't put in 22 decent quality games - the reasons vary but too much of our list can't put in a consistently good performance.

The only players who have been a good level of consistent (some of them have missed a lot with injuries too) this year would be: Heppell, Hooker, Hibberd, Watson, Goddard, Baguley, Ryder. Hurley/Zaharakis aren't too far off - I'll be generous and include them. But yeah the rest of the list has too many peaks and troughs and their troughs aren't AFL finals quality.

If i was to name the next group (the up and down group who have shown reasonable patches of good form) i would be looking at: Myers, Dempsey, Carlisle, Stanton, Hocking, Winderlich, Fletcher, Chapman.

So by my count that gives us:
Consistent Players: 7-9
Up and down (with some good sustained patches ): 8
Generally not displaying the level of a finals caliber player on a regular basis: Everyone else.

We really need to get to the stage where we have around 15 week in week out guys with a group of about 10 players that have some sustained good patches even if they occasionally drop off.

All is not lost however, i still think the team can make the finals and hopefully learn a lot from this season and continue to develop. Also i think Daniher, Gleeson and Zerrett will be at least in the up and down group next year if they get a good run at it.

 

[daffo]

We need to get some more quality running through the middle and need the forwards to improve.

 

[BomberBro2]

In my view the biggest issue is consistency. We simply have too many players who can't put in 22 decent quality games - the reasons vary but too much of our list can't put in a consistently good performance.

Agree. We've got the stars at the top end of our list, and a group of solid b graders. But we need that second tier group to give us the same output every week - even if they have slightly less potential for a huge game. We need more players who get 80 SC points every week rather than 110 one week and 50 the next, for example (SC points aren't important, just to make a point).

 

[BomberBro2]

We need to get some more quality running through the middle and need the forwards to improve.

I think we're good up forward, need another small to take over from Chappy soon but pretty sound overall. I'd put all our energy into the midfield this year and would prefer to rest a classy midfielder up forward if we have too many.

 

[monty1104]

I think we're good up forward, need another small to take over from Chappy soon but pretty sound overall. I'd put all our energy into the midfield this year and would prefer to rest a classy midfielder up forward if we have too many.

We're ok up forward? Are you actually watching us play, or just watching highlights from 2000?

 

[quotemokc]

Could do with a Lovett clone

 

[eth-dog]

We're ok up forward? Are you actually watching us play, or just watching highlights from 2000?

Our forward structure is one of the worst in the league.

 

[BomberBro2]

We're ok up forward? Are you actually watching us play, or just watching highlights from 2000?

We definitely need something more but as implied I think that extra something can come from resting quality midfielders up there for longer periods.

It's easier to find a consistent mid than a consistent forward, and we should place a premium on consistency this year.

 

[monty1104]

We definitely need something more but as implied I think that extra something can come from resting quality midfielders up there for longer periods.

It's easier to find a consistent mid than a consistent forward, and we should place a premium on consistency this year.

Resting midfielders is all well and good, but it won't help structure. Until the two or three mainstay forwards learn to work together and work on leading patterns that benefit and compliment each other, it will all be for nought.

 

[eth-dog]

We definitely need something more but as implied I think that extra something can come from resting quality midfielders up there for longer periods.

It's easier to find a consistent mid than a consistent forward, and we should place a premium on consistency this year.

What we need is a half-decent structure. The past 3 years Hawthorn used a really basic structure. 1 roaming forward (Buddy/Breust) a "true CHF" (Gunston), get out of jail top of the square player (Hale/Ceglar), leading FF (Roughy) and fanatical pressure goalsneak (Puopolo)

 

[Zach Package]

Just for some more perspective on how young we are as a team.

Steiny makes 7 first gamers this year, Aylett would make it 8 if you count him.

Then you've got Hams and Dalgleish who came in last year but haven't kicked on because of injury. Could also toss in Joe as well, who's a baby being asked to spearhead a forward line.

North have had 6 (3 being mature aged state leaguers), Port 4, Adelaide have had 3, Pies 3, Suns 3, Tiges 3.

Young side…patience, growth and all that.

 

[Whispering_Jack]

Was thinking about that today - we shouldn't discount the development that has occurred this year, even if the results haven't been as we'd hoped.

 

[calyam]

We're ok up forward? Are you actually watching us play, or just watching highlights from 2000?

There's reason to be optimistic going forward. Daniher and Carlisle will both improve and Bellchambers should be able to put a wasted season behind him. Ambrose has been good in patches although I'm not convinced he's a long-term solution as third tall.

Hopefully next season we'll be able to play Zaharakis forward of centre and Zach Merrett will continue to play a half-forward / midfield type role until he's ready to play midfield full-time. Both Chapman and Goddard will spend some time up forward - and I expect that Watson will too given the improvement of Heppell and Myers.

The coaching staff has a fair bit to work with but obviously we're not getting it right at the moment. Nevertheless, the talent is there to have a fairly reasonable forward line over the next few years.

 

[monty1104]

There's reason to be optimistic going forward. Daniher and Carlisle will both improve and Bellchambers should be able to put a wasted season behind him. Ambrose has been good in patches although I'm not convinced he's a long-term solution as third tall.

Hopefully next season we'll be able to play Zaharakis forward of centre and Zach Merrett will continue to play a half-forward / midfield type role until he's ready to play midfield full-time. Both Chapman and Goddard will spend some time up forward - and I expect that Watson will too given the improvement of Heppell and Myers.

The coaching staff has a fair bit to work with but obviously we're not getting it right at the moment. Nevertheless, the talent is there to have a fairly reasonable forward line over the next few years.

No doubt the talent is there, but they need to learn to work together, as a forward unit. Right now, the big forwards are being selfish, not in a goal hungry sense, but in not helping each other out, and creating space. So many times I've seen Carlisle and Daniher go for the same ball. If they are spread properly and working as a team, this really shouldn't happen that often as they should be creating room for each other.

 

[BrunoV]

I've got a question for the bigger picture.

Why is the inside 50 stat even recorded? It is almost totally meaningless.

Time inside forward 3rd might actually mean something.

 

[Zach Package]

No consistent avenues to goal.

Its all well and good for Joe to pull games apart with his teeth, but you just knew we were going to need something out of the box to win that game, and we didn't get it.

I'm still very comfortable with where we sit

 

[Whispering_Jack]

All mental for mine. Fix that and we have the foundations for something.

 

[Jam123]

I'm usually optimistic, but what I've seen doesn't seem like it is enough to suggest that we'll improve next year.

Certainly not with teams like Gold Coast rapidly improving.

Haven't had a player kick 40+ in years either. Maybe it is the massive downer that was tonight affecting my view, but I'm not so confident.

Guys like Stanton and Howlett just don't cut it IMO. We have too many of their types that are slow and go missing. Not really sure about Steinberg either, but I'll reserve my judgement.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

The core of our team to challenge for our next flag is IMO

Hibberd
Daniher
Zaharakis
Hurley
Z Merrett
Heppell
Carlisle
Hooker
Ryder

It's a good core but obviously we still need additions. I think Daniher and Merrett have been finds this year, but we still have a way to go.

If it happens whilst Jobe and BJ are still there, great.

 

[eth-dog]

The core of our team to challenge for our next flag is IMO

Hibberd
Daniher
Zaharakis
Hurley
Z Merrett
Heppell
Carlisle
Hooker
Ryder

It's a good core but obviously we still need additions. I think Daniher and Merrett have been finds this year, but we still have a way to go.

If it happens whilst Jobe and BJ are still there, great.

Yep, putting that in a team template it looks like:

??? (Baguley) - Hooker - Carlisle?
??? - Hurley - Hibberd
Zaharakis - Heppell - Z Merrett
??? - Carlisle? - ???
??? (Bellchambers) - Daniher - ???
Ryder - ??? - ???

As a starting 18, not bad. With the remaining spots I'd have Edwards on the back flank once he develops. The third tall defender vs CHF discussion needs to be addressed. Carlisle has had some really good games forward, but geez that defence looks good. I'd also bite the bullet and make Melksham the #1 tagger

 

[jmoo wan]

Yep, putting that in a team template it looks like:

??? (Baguley) - Hooker - Carlisle?
??? - Hurley - Hibberd
Zaharakis - Heppell - Z Merrett
??? - Carlisle? - ???
??? (Bellchambers) - Daniher - ???
Ryder - ??? - ???

As a starting 18, not bad. With the remaining spots I'd have Edwards on the back flankonce he develops. The third tall defender vs CHF discussion needs to be addressed. Carlisle has had some really good games forward, but geez that defence looks good. I'd also bite the bullet and make Melksham the #1 tagger

seriously eth-dog remove the ??? from Baguley now.