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The biggest problem in the AFL right now that no one is talking about is the lack of success in the industry
When I was growing up, it was a 12-team league with two trophies to win - the mid-season Cup, which later became the pre-season Cup (the minor trophy) and, of course the premiership in September (the major trophy)
Since then, we have increased the amount of teams by 50% (12 to 18) and decreased the amount of trophies by 50% from 2 to 1, which on the face of it seems ridiculous.
The Cup competition ran over 37 years from 1977 -2013 and had established its own separate history. I believe there has been a re-writing of history with the pre-season Cup - an incorrect narrative that no one cared about it. Sure, it became irrelevant towards the end when the AFL started to introduce gimmicks like 9-point goals and those silly 6-quarter matches featuring three teams. If the AFL were going to treat it with contempt then the fans would turn away.
But in the 1990's at its peak, the Cup competition was a good secondary trophy to win with some massive Grand Final crowds that far outstripped what those teams would get for a home and away game. And there weren't gimmicks either. They were just normal, regular-length games with no altered rules. Just look at these Grand Final crowds in the 1990's
1992 Hawthorn Fitzroy ..................... 49,453 WP
1993 Essendon Richmond ..................75,533 WP
1994 Essendon Adelaide ................... 43,925 WP
1995 North Melbourne Adelaide .......... 39,393 WP*
1996 St Kilda Carlton........................ 66,888 WP
1997 Carlton Geelong ....................... 74,786 MCG
1998 North Melbourne St Kilda ............ 63,760 WP
1999 Hawthorn Port Adelaide............... 49,874 WP
2000 Essendon North Melbourne .......... 56,720 MCG
2001 Port Adelaide Brisbane Lions ......... 35,304 AAMI**
* same 2 clubs met at the MCG in round one a week later, and crowd was only 24,882
** same two clubs met at same venue in round one a week later, and crowd was only 25,948
Those who remember the St.Kilda premiership in 1996 would testify that it meant a great deal to them. The scenes and emotion were amazing that night.
In English Soccer the main premiership is complemented by two Cup competitions - the FA Cup and Carabao Cup, which both complement the Premier League beautifully. Last year, Crystal Palace finished 12th in the title race, but won the FA Cup, giving their fans a chance to win a trophy which they would otherwise have almost no chance of doing. There is zero opportunity for something like that in the AFL
With a soon to be 19 (and maybe 20) team league on the horizon, this is only going to get worse. And I don't think the average fan truly understands the mathematics of it. Sure, superficially they do - we all know with 19 teams gives you a 1 in 19 chance. But, if you ask the average fan they still think their team can build via the draft and maybe contend to win a couple of flags in the coming years and that naive mindset persists whether it be 16 teams or 20. Their brain understands superficially, but they don't truly understand the mathematical reality of what more teams truly means.
The reality is, in a theoretically even league, if you miss your chance once every 19 years (say you lose a narrow Prelim) then a 19-year drought becomes 38 years. If you miss your chance again, then 38 years becomes 57 years and by then you're dead. A mere TWO missed windows every 19 years becomes a 57 drought very easily, when there is only one trophy to win.
The easier solution that requires no more additional games is to give more recognition to top spot. I'd do the following:
1. $50,000 to every player and coach of the team list who finishes top at a cost of 2.5 million. If the players care, the fans will care. The players must be on board
2. A newly designed elaborate trophy (I'd do a shield to differentiate it from the AFL premiership trophy, so that it has a different look)
3. Award the shield on the ground after the match in which top spot is secured
4. Don't use the word "minor-premiership". Call it something else. eg, the Ron Barassi shield, or something akin to that.
As for the Cup, a 19-team league would require 5 knockout rounds. Six teams in the first round to get down to the last 16, then it reverts to the 4-round 16-team knockout Cup. A possible way to do it would be have the first 3 rounds in the pre-season, doubling as pre-season games like it used to be from 1988 to 2013. Then, the Semi-Finals are played on a standalone weekend in between round 3 and 4. Then the Grand Final is played on a standalone weekend in between round 7 and 8. So, rounds 3 and 4 of the home and away season would be a fortnight apart, as would rounds 7 and 8. I'd also award substantial prizemoney to get buy-in from the players
So, as you can see, there is a way to introduce at most, two more trophies. If the AFL continue to increase the amount of teams, whilst simultaneously reducing the amount of things to win, you will get a situation where most fans will never experience any sort of success.
I think another one, or two secondary trophies (like in Soccer) to complement the main premiership is essential.
Do you agree? How would you do it? What are your solutions? Do you agree with me that the average footy fan doesn't truly understand the mathematics of it? In that, as the competition has expanded they still think their team is just as likely to win a premiership, when this factually isn't true?
Let me know your thoughts.
When I was growing up, it was a 12-team league with two trophies to win - the mid-season Cup, which later became the pre-season Cup (the minor trophy) and, of course the premiership in September (the major trophy)
Since then, we have increased the amount of teams by 50% (12 to 18) and decreased the amount of trophies by 50% from 2 to 1, which on the face of it seems ridiculous.
The Cup competition ran over 37 years from 1977 -2013 and had established its own separate history. I believe there has been a re-writing of history with the pre-season Cup - an incorrect narrative that no one cared about it. Sure, it became irrelevant towards the end when the AFL started to introduce gimmicks like 9-point goals and those silly 6-quarter matches featuring three teams. If the AFL were going to treat it with contempt then the fans would turn away.
But in the 1990's at its peak, the Cup competition was a good secondary trophy to win with some massive Grand Final crowds that far outstripped what those teams would get for a home and away game. And there weren't gimmicks either. They were just normal, regular-length games with no altered rules. Just look at these Grand Final crowds in the 1990's
1992 Hawthorn Fitzroy ..................... 49,453 WP
1993 Essendon Richmond ..................75,533 WP
1994 Essendon Adelaide ................... 43,925 WP
1995 North Melbourne Adelaide .......... 39,393 WP*
1996 St Kilda Carlton........................ 66,888 WP
1997 Carlton Geelong ....................... 74,786 MCG
1998 North Melbourne St Kilda ............ 63,760 WP
1999 Hawthorn Port Adelaide............... 49,874 WP
2000 Essendon North Melbourne .......... 56,720 MCG
2001 Port Adelaide Brisbane Lions ......... 35,304 AAMI**
* same 2 clubs met at the MCG in round one a week later, and crowd was only 24,882
** same two clubs met at same venue in round one a week later, and crowd was only 25,948
Those who remember the St.Kilda premiership in 1996 would testify that it meant a great deal to them. The scenes and emotion were amazing that night.
In English Soccer the main premiership is complemented by two Cup competitions - the FA Cup and Carabao Cup, which both complement the Premier League beautifully. Last year, Crystal Palace finished 12th in the title race, but won the FA Cup, giving their fans a chance to win a trophy which they would otherwise have almost no chance of doing. There is zero opportunity for something like that in the AFL
With a soon to be 19 (and maybe 20) team league on the horizon, this is only going to get worse. And I don't think the average fan truly understands the mathematics of it. Sure, superficially they do - we all know with 19 teams gives you a 1 in 19 chance. But, if you ask the average fan they still think their team can build via the draft and maybe contend to win a couple of flags in the coming years and that naive mindset persists whether it be 16 teams or 20. Their brain understands superficially, but they don't truly understand the mathematical reality of what more teams truly means.
The reality is, in a theoretically even league, if you miss your chance once every 19 years (say you lose a narrow Prelim) then a 19-year drought becomes 38 years. If you miss your chance again, then 38 years becomes 57 years and by then you're dead. A mere TWO missed windows every 19 years becomes a 57 drought very easily, when there is only one trophy to win.
The easier solution that requires no more additional games is to give more recognition to top spot. I'd do the following:
1. $50,000 to every player and coach of the team list who finishes top at a cost of 2.5 million. If the players care, the fans will care. The players must be on board
2. A newly designed elaborate trophy (I'd do a shield to differentiate it from the AFL premiership trophy, so that it has a different look)
3. Award the shield on the ground after the match in which top spot is secured
4. Don't use the word "minor-premiership". Call it something else. eg, the Ron Barassi shield, or something akin to that.
As for the Cup, a 19-team league would require 5 knockout rounds. Six teams in the first round to get down to the last 16, then it reverts to the 4-round 16-team knockout Cup. A possible way to do it would be have the first 3 rounds in the pre-season, doubling as pre-season games like it used to be from 1988 to 2013. Then, the Semi-Finals are played on a standalone weekend in between round 3 and 4. Then the Grand Final is played on a standalone weekend in between round 7 and 8. So, rounds 3 and 4 of the home and away season would be a fortnight apart, as would rounds 7 and 8. I'd also award substantial prizemoney to get buy-in from the players
So, as you can see, there is a way to introduce at most, two more trophies. If the AFL continue to increase the amount of teams, whilst simultaneously reducing the amount of things to win, you will get a situation where most fans will never experience any sort of success.
I think another one, or two secondary trophies (like in Soccer) to complement the main premiership is essential.
Do you agree? How would you do it? What are your solutions? Do you agree with me that the average footy fan doesn't truly understand the mathematics of it? In that, as the competition has expanded they still think their team is just as likely to win a premiership, when this factually isn't true?
Let me know your thoughts.







