Prediction The Bounce Back - The Next 4 Games

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CM9000

BigFooty Optimist
Aug 19, 2016
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Perth, WA
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East Fremantle
In 2018 I created a thread for people to predict how we would go over the next 4 games. Now seems to be the perfect time to create a new one.

We have an injury crisis on our hands. Today’s game showed that not only the number of stars we are missing is ******* us, but the quality of those players just amplifies the issue. Let me put it into perspective.

The elite players we are currently missing include:
Kennedy (VC)
Hurn
Ryan
Shuey (C)
Yeo
McGovern
Rioli

In the past 3 seasons, the only time that we didn’t have all of them (bar Rioli) was for a four week period in 2020, when we were in the hub. All these players have been a permanent feature in our team for the past 3 seasons, apart from the start of 2021. We have only missed both Yeo and Shuey at the same time, for an extended period, once in the past 3 seasons. We do not have the same midfield depth as Richmond, because our recruiting focus has been on KPP talent (and Rohen O’Brien is the worst recruiter of midfield talent in the league).

Nearly all of these players should be back by the bye. So, we have to navigate the next 4 games with the team we have. Our fixture until the cavalry returns includes:
1. Fremantle (H)
2. Hawthorn (A)
3. Adelaide (H)
4. Giants (A)

How will we go? I expect, at a minimum, 4 wins.
 

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Westend

Premiership Player
Mar 28, 2009
3,380
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Expecting a win against Freo .. think again with our injuries and our lack of heart courage and not playing for each other we will be lucky to get close. Perfect opportunity for the dockers to win easily and if there is going to be no crowd due to COVID going to be very hard

Hurn to break the games record this week ?? Well we have seen how we get up for milestone games ..and it’s not good
 

WCErevival

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 28, 2009
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I dont have any confidence of winning any of those. I'll say we go 2-2. We dont deserve top 4 at this stage and are going to be lucky just to make finals.
 

SirKarl0s

Team Captain
Jun 10, 2018
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Hard to be optimistic after yesterday, hopefully we win 2 out of the 4 and I'll be happy. Looks like another year we limp into finals and get booted out in week 1 or 2.
 

Spange

All Australian
May 24, 2007
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Im usually an optimist but seeing yesterday’s demolition and not having the grunt through the midfield makes think we would be lucky to come out with 2 wins. The other teams would smell blood in the water now.
Here’s hoping though we can get Hurn and Kennedy back
 

kaiserchief13

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 12, 2011
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Lose to Freo - their midfield will dominate.
Lose to Hawthorn - their midfield (even though it's poor) will make WC work hard and mids will give up in 3rd qtr.
Win vs Adelaide - their midfield isn't great.
Lose vs GWS - Mids will give up in 2nd qtr
 

KERRPOW

Premiership Player
Jul 28, 2008
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We will have kennedy back next week and possibly hurn. That will steady the book ends and we will get over the line against freo by 3 goals.

Another weak performance in the midfield against the hawks will see them win by 5 goals.

Win against Adelaide by 6 goals.

Midfield gets trolloped by GWS, some midfield debutant has a blinder. Finlayson to jag 5. GWS by 9goals.

**EDIT... hawks are trash, but we are capable of pulling something weak out of the bag and losing another away game.
 
Last edited:

Rowan18

Premiership Player
Feb 20, 2018
3,363
6,289
AFL Club
West Coast
Wow - there is so much doom and gloom on here. We got belted against Geelong from effort and attitude, that won't be repeated this week. Freo have had a piss easy start to the year and we'll ambush them (like we did to Port).

Hawks are sh*t, but we'll find a way to bring them into the game and it will be a lot closer than it should be. We still win.

Crows at home will be a big win. We always match up well against them.

GWS away is the danger game, depends on if they find form by then.

I'm backing the boys in to win all 4.
 

KERRPOW

Premiership Player
Jul 28, 2008
4,206
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in a town near you
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Realistically we have to persist with our best 22 as we are in finals contention.

However for season 2022 we have to rebuild for the future.

- We cannot be offering kennedy & hurn contracts.
- Piss of hutchings.
- Cripps & redden to stay as depth if still contracted.
- Midfielders need to harden the fu** up.
- Delist spuds like landgon and ahchee.
- Nic to be on a reduced salary that matches his TOG
 

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Cuzz09

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 21, 2004
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Wow - there is so much doom and gloom on here. We got belted against Geelong from effort and attitude, that won't be repeated this week. Freo have had a piss easy start to the year and we'll ambush them (like we did to Port).

Hawks are sh*t, but we'll find a way to bring them into the game and it will be a lot closer than it should be. We still win.

Crows at home will be a big win. We always match up well against them.

GWS away is the danger game, depends on if they find form by then.

I'm backing the boys in to win all 4.
dreamer

On SM-G925I using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

WCErevival

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 28, 2009
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Wow - there is so much doom and gloom on here. We got belted against Geelong from effort and attitude, that won't be repeated this week. Freo have had a piss easy start to the year and we'll ambush them (like we did to Port).

Hawks are sh*t, but we'll find a way to bring them into the game and it will be a lot closer than it should be. We still win.

Crows at home will be a big win. We always match up well against them.

GWS away is the danger game, depends on if they find form by then.

I'm backing the boys in to win all 4.
Wont be repeated yet its happened in 2 of the last 3 games.
 

Priddis Is Done

Premiership Player
May 28, 2017
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Hard to be optimistic after yesterday, hopefully we win 2 out of the 4 and I'll be happy. Looks like another year we limp into finals and get booted out in week 1 or 2.
You are dreaming.

We had a full list to choose from, in 19 and limped out of the finals.

These injured players are now 2 years older.

Wow
 

woosha24

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 5, 2015
5,210
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Anything less than 3 wins is unacceptable.

Freo = win. They are still sh*t. Lose to them and we are in "sack Simmo" territory!
Hawks = win. They are pretty ordinary, but will find a way to drag us down to their level. A couple of goals difference.
Adelaide = win. They will show fight but overall we should have them pretty well covered at home
GWS = 50/50. Depends which Giants outfit turns up on the day. Could grind out an epic win, could get drubbed by 8 goals.
 

Brave Sir Robin

Premium Gold
Jun 27, 2008
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I have a fairly simple but effective model for creating an outlook of how the season will progress. The season is simulated 1000 times so the plots below show you have many times each team finishes in position 1-18. At the moment, this is what I have before today's games are played. Notice that it seems most likely that we finish in the lower regions of the 8.

pred_from_here.png


If we go 2-2, we are just under a 50/50 chance of scraping into the 8.

1619321938360.png

If we go 0-4, things are more dire, looking to be just under 20% chance of even making finals, though I think losing 5 in a row would've told you that already.

1619322293634.png

Methodologically speaking, the major flaw with this analysis is that the ranking system should learn something from those assumed losses, whereas all I did was hardcode some of them to be losses. The counterbalance to this is that with the injuries we have at the moment, it seems likely that we could lose these upcoming games and still come back from the bye stronger, so there's a legitimate argument to be made for doing it that way.
 

Patterz123

BigFooty Member
Feb 12, 2009
577
617
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
No excuse for the 3 quarter fade out (demolition) yesterday. But we are missing a large amount of quality from the side. You take that amount out of any other team, and send them to Geelong or Optus and i bet they get smashed as well.

We will bounce back at Home and just need to maintain an even record till mid year. It was only a few weeks ago, where we put in an awesome effort vs Port.

A lot of doom and gloom at the moment (rightfully so), but it's a long season. Shuey, Yeo, Flyin' and Hurn change this team in an instance.
 

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