The Browne-Clark-McClure-Barrett Register - Measuring AFL journalist performance at trade time

[KermitJagger]

BigFooty - I come to you in need of assistance to act as the 'Champion Data' of sorts for the AFL media with the onset of the trade period.

I'm working on what I call The Browne-Clark-McClure-Barrett Register, which is essentially a running sheet of all the rumors and predictions spouted by sources in the media, and later on making a call on whether or not it's true or false.

This will give the community a basis on which to judge the efficacy of a prediction or a call from each of the journalists, based on how many predictions they make and the success rate of those predictions.

Just post here or submit via this form when you see a rumor from a media pundit with the source and I will put it in the register and update it daily (hopefully).

EDIT: I won't be including Facebook or Twitter pages for a few reasons; one, because they're honestly not to be trusted in the first place and, two, no one on earth has that amount of time.

 

[BF Tiger]

Brandon Ellis to the Suns

 

[KermitJagger]

Brandon Ellis to the Suns

Who made the call?

 

[BF Tiger]

Who made the call?

AFL trade whispers 2019: Hawthorn flags interest in Sam Frost, Gold Coast prepared to offer Brandon Ellis long-term deal

Trade Whispers: Three-club race Dee, Suns’ long offer for Tiger

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[Sentinel]

Of the 'FALSE' calls, only 1 of them is actually definitively 'FALSE' as written - the Coniglio call by Tom Browne. I'm fairly certain he never actually said he was 100% to Carlton either.

Not to say journalists don't pull things out of their arse, but at the time of report the Suns may have been closing in on a deal for Burgoyne, the Dogs may have been leading the race for Martin, Ceglar may have been more likely the Hawks to leave then stay etc.

 

[Engimal v3]

Good idea, but some questionable entries in the list. Geelong were in the running for Goldstein, Goldstein mentioned their interest in his press conference.

 

[ferrisb]

Not to say journalists don't pull things out of their arse, but at the time of report the Suns may have been closing in on a deal for Burgoyne, the Dogs may have been leading the race for Martin, Ceglar may have been more likely the Hawks to leave then stay etc.

That's a valid point. And none of these guys are going to end up with a strike rate of 100% because of it.

But it would be interesting to see if one ends up on 11% and another on 45% success rate.

I'd like to know whether I need to take a journo's call with a pinch of salt or whole bloody salt mine.

 

[KermitJagger]

Good idea, but some questionable entries in the list. Geelong were in the running for Goldstein, Goldstein mentioned their interest in his press conference.

Of the 'FALSE' calls, only 1 of them is actually definitively 'FALSE' as written - the Coniglio call by Tom Browne. I'm fairly certain he never actually said he was 100% to Carlton either.

Not to say journalists don't pull things out of their arse, but at the time of report the Suns may have been closing in on a deal for Burgoyne, the Dogs may have been leading the race for Martin, Ceglar may have been more likely the Hawks to leave then stay etc.

That's what you guys are here for.

Regardless, this 'leading the race' thing needs to be called out for the bullshit that it is. It's the journalist way of getting around making a call without actually looking like making a call.

You can't have your cake and eat it too, so I'm marking harshly. If at any point a journalist says that a certain club is definitively 'leading the race' or 'they'll be shocked if a deal doesn't get done' I'm counting that as false if it doesn't happen.

The 'closing in on a deal' statement happened an hour before he signed at the Hawks.

 

[schmuttt]

Genuinely good thread idea

 

[burge13]

Love it. Look forward to following

 

[HairyO]

"Leading the race" and "Closing in on" should definitely count as fails if wrong.

And they also should count as wins if correct.

 

[Drewie11]

Edmund provides massive trade updates on Kelly, Acres, Hill, Jones, Wood and Papley

The Saints are linked to a lot of players.

www.sen.com.au

Jake Kelly to the saints

 

[KermitJagger]

Edmund provides massive trade updates on Kelly, Acres, Hill, Jones, Wood and Papley

The Saints are linked to a lot of players.

www.sen.com.au

Jake Kelly to the saints

I've taken the Kelly one and the Hill one from that, but the Acres 'could be' I've left out.

SEN often has a good wrap up of trade stuff.

 

[Kwality]

Of the 'FALSE' calls, only 1 of them is actually definitively 'FALSE' as written - the Coniglio call by Tom Browne. I'm fairly certain he never actually said he was 100% to Carlton either.

Not to say journalists don't pull things out of their arse, but at the time of report the Suns may have been closing in on a deal for Burgoyne, the Dogs may have been leading the race for Martin, Ceglar may have been more likely the Hawks to leave then stay etc.

These blokes all Melbourne based?

 

[nineteen eighty]

Brilliant!! BF watch!

 

[Bunk Moreland]

No Cookies | Herald Sun

No Cookies

www.heraldsun.com.au

How does “Joe Daniher could go to Sydney and if he did then Jeremy Cameron could be his ideal replacement at Essendon and it could happen because Devon Smith is Cameron’s fishing buddy but the fly in the ointment is Cameron loves it at GWS” fit in?

 

[KermitJagger]

These blokes all Melbourne based?

By all means contribute non-Vic pundits. I'll include anyone.

It's just that the Vics seem to make 100 times as much noise.

 

[KermitJagger]

No Cookies | Herald Sun

No Cookies

www.heraldsun.com.au

How does “Joe Daniher could go to Sydney and if he did then Jeremy Cameron could be his ideal replacement at Essendon and it could happen because Devon Smith is Cameron’s fishing buddy but the fly in the ointment is Cameron loves it at GWS” fit in?

This is in a whole different world of Jon Ralph/Jay Clark fantasy that doesn't quite fit the bill. Good evidence of the ever slowly loosening grip of the media blokes on reality, but not yet qualified as a prediction.

 

[zeggie]

Excellent thread.

 

[Drewie11]

I've taken the Kelly one and the Hill one from that, but the Acres 'could be' I've left out.

SEN often has a good wrap up of trade stuff.

You can put false in the Jake Kelly one, has already signed with Adelaide

 

[Kanga Commando]

Can you include coaches too ????

IIRC Clarko was first off going to blues, but i can't find a reference for that..

Now David Prestipino is hypothesizing that he's going to Freo

Could Hawks coach Clarkson find a new home at Freo? Six points to ponder

Are the Fremantle Football Club on the verge of trumping themselves in their quest to find a new senior coach?

www.theage.com.au

 

[nahnah]

love it, finally some accountability for these chumps

 

[nahnah]

Ricky Nixon linked Aiden Bonar to pies

 

[The Prosecutor]

In fairness, I think the Daniher call should definitely be attributed to Sam McLure. This has been his story from the start.

 

[Duskfire]

I have a quick question. Why does no one like Barrett? Every time I see him on something he comes across as a bit stand offish, a bit opinionated, but he does voice some decent things?

Just curious.