Opinion The Bubble Of Excellence

[Yojimbo]

Jackson Macrae: Marcus Bontempelli: Joshua Dunkley

2019 Season:
Round 1- Versus Sydney (W) = 32 + 29 + 20 for a total of 81
Round 2- Versus Hawthorn (W) = 36 + 26 + 18 for a total of 80
Round 3- Versus Gold Coast (L) = 33 + 34 + 16 for a total of 83
Round 4- Versus Collingwood (L) = 33 + 36 + 15 for a total of 84
Round 5- Versus Carlton (L) = 24 + 24 + 15 for a total of 63
Round 6- Versus Fremantle (L) = 29 + 22 + 24 for a total of 75
Round 7- Versus Richmond (W) = 36 + 27 + 35 for a total of 98 (Birth of the bubble)
Round 8- Versus Brisbane (W) = 28 + 26 + 36 for a total of 90
Round 9- Versus Geelong (L) = 29 + 20 + 21 for a total of 70
Round 10- Versus North Melb (L) = 22 + 25 + 29 for a total of 76
Round 11- Versus West Coast (L) = 26 + 27 + 33 for a total of 86
First Half Of Season Total = 886 Possessions.

"Bye"

Round 13- Versus Carlton (W) = 37 + 27 + 41 for a total of 105
Round 14- Versus Collingwood (L) = 42 + 30 + 35 for a total of 107
Round 15- Versus Port Adelaide (W) = 36 + 27 + 29 for a total of 92
Round 16- Versus Geelong (W) = 34 + 27 + 27 for a total of 88
Round 17- Versus Melbourne (W) = 30 + 21 + 39 for a total of 90
Round 18- Versus St Kilda (L) = 34 + 19 + 38 for a total of 91
Round 19- Versus Fremantle (W) = 38 + 28 + 26 for a total of 92
Round 20- Versus Brisbane (L) = 45 + 35 + 31 for a total of 111
Round 21- Versus Essendon (W) = 38 + 26 + 39 for a total of 103
Round 22- Versus GWS Giants (W) = 39 + 27 + 31 for a total of 97
Round 23- Versus Adelaide (W) = 36 + 31 + 33 for a total of 100
Second Half Of Season Total = 1,076 Possessions.

Elimination Final- Versus GWS Giants (L) = 32 + 13 + 20 for a total of 65

When I think about describing the "Bubble Of Excellence" I look for an analogy of three great men who made an enormous
impact and I am drawn to the first moon landing, Neil Armstrong = Marcus Bontempelli the man who gets all the credit,
then there is Buzz Aldrin = Josh Dunkley the second man down the ladder, second in the B & F the similarities are clear for
all too see. Then there is Michael Collins = Jackson Macrae, despite having an amazing 17 x 30+ Possessions more than
the other two combined he is the quiet achiever of the trio the designated driver. Macrae never missed 30+ Possessions
for the entire second half of the season. Is this a toast to the "Bubble Of Excellence" or a dire warning noting the two
highest totals were both losses in the second half of the year, who knows ?

 

[TempletonTheRat]

so we are at the moon already - gee, its hard to keep that lid in place!

 

[Yojimbo]

so we are at the moon already - gee, its hard to keep that lid in place!

The moon landing analogy was a bit tongue in cheek, but I like to think big.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

We made it to the moon in 2016. Surely we should be heading for Mars.


(Need someone to photoshop Doggies flag over stars and stripes please)

 

[dogwatch]

Two observations:
1. A big part of the difference between the first half and second half of the season was the first half dozen or so games that Dunkley spent as mainly a half-forward with occasional stint in the guts. Who was it who pleaded with Bevo to start Dunkley in the middle ... Bont? Murphy? Anyway after that he averaged an extra 10 or so possessions per game.

2. The "bubble" may well be one of excellence but if you can find a way to prick that bubble you are well on the way to beating the Dogs. That brings us to the EF where the Giants did indeed have enough pricks to do the job. It didn't help that Dunkley was playing with busted or badly bruised ribs in that game. His output was below average for him. The Dogs vowed that the Giants won't get away with that next time we meet them. Meanwhile every other club will have been taking notes.

 

[Yojimbo]

"The Bubble Of Excellence" under the microscope, what makes them tick ?

Marcus Bontempelli: V.O.S.S = 42

23 Games- 347 Kicks, 260 Handballs, 94 Marks, 15 Goals, 27 Behinds, 139 Clearances, 91 Clangers,
123 Inside 50's, 48 Rebound 50's, 170 Score Involvements, 11,432 Metres Gained, 115 Tackles,
20 Contested Marks, 69% Disposal Efficiency.

Jackson Macrae: V.O.S.S = 7

23 Games- 342 Kicks, 427 Handballs, 101 Marks, 5 Goals, 2 Behinds, 122 Clearances, 87 Clangers,
96 Inside 50's, 34 Rebound 50's, 153 Score Involvements, 8088 Metres Gained, 119 Tackles,
3 Contested Marks, 74.4% Disposal Efficiency.

Joshua Dunkley: V.O.S.S = 19

23 Games- 307 Kicks, 344 Handballs, 95 Marks, 11 Goals, 8 Behinds, 119 Clearances, 71 Clangers,
85 Inside 50's, 29 Rebound 50's, 157 Score Involvements, 6,707 Metres Gained, 141 Tackles,
8 Contested Marks, 70.7% Disposal Efficiency.

Switch Bontempelli's V.O.S.S around to 27 Goals, 15 Behinds and we would all sleep better at night, but 42
shots on goal is magnificent and probably explains the opposition attention he should expect in 2020. He
is an incredible Metres Gained man yet another reason to shut him down plus he kicks more than he does
handball which keeps him on the Christmas card list. The relationship between Metres Gained and the
ability to score is also an interesting study perhaps for another time.

 

[Fossie 32]

What’s VOSS? ... scoring shots? Should Jackson get a higher score for degree of difficulty in kicking sideways from the direction he is running?

 

[bobs head soup]

We made it to the moon in 2016. Surely we should be heading for Mars.

View attachment 798874
(Need someone to photoshop Doggies flag over stars and stripes please)

Did 2016 really happen though? I've heard whispers it was a hoax filmed by Stanley Kubrick.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

Did 2016 really happen though? I've heard whispers it was a hoax filmed by Stanley Kubrick.

It all took place in a warehouse out in the desert.

 

[Yojimbo]

What’s VOSS?

Volume Of Scoring Shots

 

[Jeff 1975]

It all took place in a warehouse out in the desert.

Diamonds Are Forever

 

[Yojimbo]

So this is an extension of the "Bubble Of Excellence" I have been working on where I examine the top four
players from each club in terms of total Brownlow Medal votes then plot a differential when related to
total Team Brownlow Medal Votes. This results in two ladders and yes I know the Brownlow Medal is a
speculative representation of reality at best or an umpires award that ignores key defenders at worse.

Clubs Top Four (Brownlow Medal Performers): Ladder format

Geelong: 75 votes
Brisbane: 69 votes (dude)
Western Bulldogs: 66 votes
Collingwood: 62 votes
West Coast: 57 votes
Fremantle: 57 votes (Fyfe 33)
GWS Giants: 53 votes
Richmond: 48 votes

North Melbourne: 46 votes
Carlton: 43 votes (Cripps 26)
Essendon: 41 votes
Hawthorn: 39 votes
Port Adelaide: 39 votes
Melbourne: 39 votes
Sydney: 36 votes
Adelaide: 35 votes
St Kilda: 35 votes
Gold Coast: 21 votes


Differential Between Top Four Players and Total Team Votes: Ladder format

GWS Giants: 31 votes
Hawthorn: 28 votes
Port Adelaide: 27 votes
Richmond: 24 votes
North Melbourne: 22 votes
Brisbane: 21 votes
Collingwood: 19 votes
Adelaide: 18 votes

St Kilda: 18 votes
West Coast: 17 votes
Essendon: 17 votes
Sydney: 17 votes
Carlton: 17 votes
Geelong: 15 votes
Western Bulldogs: 15 votes
Fremantle: 12 votes
Melbourne: 8 votes
Gold Coast: 1 vote (Singular)


So what does it all mean, is it a cryptic warning against over reliance on an elite few ? Or is it an
advertisement for spreading the load. Or am i just upset that everyone is taking the piss with
my moon landing analogy. As they said on the x-files "The truth is out there" or is it just the
way of things in the grand plan of universal domination.

 

[TempletonTheRat]

why top 4? why not top 3?

over reliance on a few needs to take into account number of polling players - Dogs had 11 v Suns had 5, Giants had 12

 

[Yojimbo]

why top 4? why not top 3?

over reliance on a few needs to take into account number of polling players - Dogs had 11 v Suns had 5, Giants had 12

What makes you think I did not do top 3 and top 2 and several other combinations.

 

[TempletonTheRat]

What makes you think I did not do top 3 and top 2 and several other combinations.

you didn't answer the question - so if you did other combinations, why did you use "4" and vary from the "3" you started with? i.e what was your rationale

 

[Yojimbo]

you didn't answer the question - so if you did other combinations, why did you use "4" and vary from the "3" you started with? i.e what was your rationale

Mainly to get a broader picture of teams in terms of who the four players were and to gauge the drop from
1st to 4th, the fact Naughton was fourth was encouraging, Keath was 4th for the crows a defender who can
poll Brownlow Votes l like the smell of that.

 

[Yojimbo]

After TTR exposed a flaw in my logic, can I claim some form of redemption ?

2019:
Macrae 22, Bontempelli 22, Dunkley 15, Total Votes = 59

2018:
Macrae 14, Hunter 9, Bontempelli 9, Total Votes = 32

2017:
Bontempelli 19, Macrae 8, Johannisen 7, Total Votes = 34

2016:
Bontempelli 20, Hunter 13, Johannisen 10, Total Votes = 43

2015:
Bontempelli 13, Macrae 11, Boyd/Wallis 8, Total Votes = 32

2014:
Macrae 10, Cooney 7, Liberatore/Boyd/Griffen 5, Total Votes = 22

2013:
Liberatore 14, Griffen 14, Cooney/Boyd/Dahlhaus 7, Total Votes = 35

2012:
Griffen 11, Boyd 10, Lake 7, Total Votes = 28

2011:
Boyd 24, Griffen 7, Ward/Cross 6, Total Votes = 37

2010:
Boyd 20, Hall 11, Lake/Cooney/Harbrow/Giansiracusa 8, Total Votes = 39

2009:
Boyd 14, Higgins 11, Akermanis 10, Total Votes = 35

2008:
COONEY 24*, Boyd 12, Cross 12, Total Votes = 48

Well that was a trip down memory lane, that poses many questions as well as illuminates the generational
greatness and domination that was and is "The Bubble Of Excellence" not one year within double figures
despite a premiership and multiple preliminary final appearances and even a Brownlow Medallist. I hope
this makes you view the overall formula for success and question how 2019 compares to say 2015 to use
two Elimination Final exit years as examples.

 

[Yojimbo]

Having traced the (Top 3) Brownlow Votes all the way back to 1990 the closest any year comes to the Bubble
was the epic season of 2006 a Semi Final bow out year with the mucho bravo trio of Scott West (23) and the
great Brad Johnson (19) and the designated driver Daniel Cross (8) for a grand total of (50) still (9) shy of
the "Bubble Of Excellence".

So if I have clearly demonstrated the historical greatness and domination of the "Bubble" did we fail to back
the "Bubble", will the additions of Bruce and Keath plus the perceived improvement of English be enough to
back the "Bubble" ? Or will we have to reinvent our system totally to mirror our new assets and make us
more unpredictable ? I favour a less Possession more Impact model, but habits are hard to change.

 

[Yojimbo]

Premiership Teams "Bubble Of Excellence" 2008 to 2019 (inclusive)

2019- Richmond- Martin 23, Houli 11, Prestia 8 = Total 42, Team Total 72.

2018- West Coast- Gaff 16, Yeo 15, Darling 11 = Total 42, Team Total 81.

2017- Richmond- Martin 36, Rance 8, Cotchin 8 = Total 52, Team Total 80.

2016- Western Bulldogs- Bontempelli 20, Hunter 13, Johannisen 10 = Total 43, Team Total 81.

2015- Hawthorn- Mitchell 26, Hodge 13, Roughead 9 = Total 48, Team Total 88.

2014- Hawthorn- Lewis 15, Hodge 12, Roughead 11 = Total 38, Team Total 90.

2013- Hawthorn- Mitchell 16, Hodge 15, Roughead 13 = Total 44, Team Total 83.

2012- Sydney- Kennedy 19, K. Jack 15, Hannebery 12 = Total 46, Team Total 93.

2011- Geelong- Selwood 17, Johnson 12, Corey 11 = Total 40, Team Total 85.

2010- Collingwood- Swan 24, Pendlebury 21, Didak 11 = Total 56, Team Total 89.

2009- Geelong- Ablett 30, Selwood 16, Bartel 13 = Total 59, Team Total 98.

2008- Hawthorn- Franklin 20, Sewell 16, Mitchell 15 = Total 51, Team Total 91.

Great list of premiership heroes including a couple of Brownlow winners in their premiership year, but how
does this compare to "The Bubble Of Excellence".

2019- Western Bulldogs- Macrae 22, Bontempelli 22, Dunkley 15 = Total 59, Team Total 81.

Of course Brownlow Votes are no replacement for a premiership medal, but all three were prominent in the
coaches award as well.

 

[Yojimbo]

Three unique measures of greatness:

Firstly the "Ching", an award voted upon by great people, with almost no visible bias.

1- Bontempelli
2- Macrae
3- Dunkley
4- Daniel
5- Crozier
6- Liberatore
7- Naughton
8- Hunter
9- Wood
10- English

Secondly the "Brownlow", an award voted upon by umpires, who wear various bright outfits to be anonymous.

1- Bontempelli (Equal with Macrae, but more 3 Votes)
2- Macrae
3- Dunkley
4- Naughton
5- Hunter
6- Daniel
7- Wallis
8- Dale
9- Johannisen
10- Schache

Thirdly the "Best and Fairest or B&F", an award ruled by bias and personal interest.

1- Bontempelli
2- Dunkley
3- Macrae
4- Johannisen (WCIHS)
5- Daniel
6- Hunter
7- Wood
8- Naughton
9- Lloyd
10- Crozier

Well to relate this back to the "Bubble Of Excellence" it is clear no matter the award everyone respects the
enormous sea of ability that is the "Bubble Of Excellence" no matter the origin of the votes or their bias
or questionable validity. I did not include the scores on purpose because it only helps show how very
dominant the "Bubble Of Excellence" really was, but that reliance is visible in most teams.

 

[LondonBulldog]

Don't you just love it though when a bubble forms into two bubbles.

Granted one we always be bigger than the other yet its nice watching the second bubble trail the first.

I'm more concerned how the second bubble travels next year, as this is the bubble which will determine whether we reach the hole grail again

 

[Fossie 32]

Three unique measures of greatness:

Firstly the "Ching", an award voted upon by great people, with almost no visible bias.

1- Bontempelli
2- Macrae
3- Dunkley
4- Daniel
5- Crozier
6- Liberatore
7- Naughton
8- Hunter
9- Wood
10- English

Secondly the "Brownlow", an award voted upon by umpires, who wear various bright outfits to be anonymous.

1- Bontempelli (Equal with Macrae, but more 3 Votes)
2- Macrae
3- Dunkley
4- Naughton
5- Hunter
6- Daniel
7- Wallis
8- Dale
9- Johannisen
10- Schache

Thirdly the "Best and Fairest or B&F", an award ruled by bias and personal interest.

1- Bontempelli
2- Dunkley
3- Macrae
4- Johannisen (WCIHS)
5- Daniel
6- Hunter
7- Wood
8- Naughton
9- Lloyd
10- Crozier

Well to relate this back to the "Bubble Of Excellence" it is clear no matter the award everyone respects the
enormous sea of ability that is the "Bubble Of Excellence" no matter the origin of the votes or their bias
or questionable validity. I did not include the scores on purpose because it only helps show how very
dominant the "Bubble Of Excellence" really was, but that reliance is visible in most teams.

Here is an added element for your prognostications

FYI here's the top 10 in the CSM sorted by votes per game. Bailey W the main beneficiary:

10.00 - Macrae
9.10 - Hunter
8.11 - Bontempelli
6.67 - Naughton
6.14 - Williams
5.79 - Dunkley
5.76 - Crozier
5.50 - Daniel
4.95 - Johannisen
4.14 - McLean

 

[Yojimbo]

Here is an added element for your prognostications

Just killing time waiting for Pooch Perfect to start, the holiday free to air TV programs are making me do more
and more statistical analysis. Bring back the "He is training the house down and looks huge threads" just to
help get me through the offseason.

Actually if I am honest, it's been a horrific start to the year with all the fires, brings back bad memories.

 

[Fossie 32]

Just killing time waiting for Pooch Perfect to start, the holiday free to air TV programs are making me do more
and more statistical analysis. Bring back the "He is training the house down and looks huge threads" just to
help get me through the offseason.

Actually if I am honest, it's been a horrific start to the year with all the fires, brings back bad memories.

I hope you will be proud of me, I am midst compiling my total ching votes for the year to compare with all your tables.
My in laws house in Cockatoo was burnt down in 1983 - bad memories for them too

 

[Yojimbo]

My in laws house in Cockatoo was burnt down in 1983 - bad memories for them too

Played golf in Upper Beaconsfield in 1983 many of my friends lost their houses and almost their lives they just
made it too the dam on the course and I mean just.