Media The Bye Effect - updated with Seasons 34 to 40 and overall Bye Effect stats

[MWPP]

The Bye has been a staple of the SFA fixture since Season 34, and with it has come two competing lines of thinking. In that other league, it is often treated as a clear advantage- a week to reset, recover, and recalibrate. Fresh legs, fewer niggles, and the opportunity to step away from the grind are all assumed to translate into improved performance on return.

Not everyone is convinced, however. There is an equally persistent view that the Bye can interrupt rhythm, dull momentum, and leave sides flat when they resume.

Despite these opposing perspectives, the Bye itself has rarely been examined in any meaningful way. This thread sets out to test the so-called “Bye Effect” across Seasons 34-40, including finals. For each season, every team coming off a bye will be tracked in their very next match, with results and margins recorded and compared across the competition. Over time, this will build into a broader dataset, allowing trends to emerge.

The central question is a simple one: does the bye confer a measurable advantage or disadvantage?

 

[MWPP]

SEASON 34
Teams coming off the bye went:
6-5-1 in H&A
2-1 in finals
Overall: 8-6-1 (57%)
Avg margin: +6.7 (all games)

This represents a slight edge, but is far from definitive. The H&A numbers sit only marginally above break-even and are influenced by a handful of stronger wins. Several sides came off the bye and lost immediately, suggesting no consistent, across-the-board benefit.

What’s more interesting is when those results occurred. Early in the season, teams coming off the bye performed strongly, winning five of the first six games. That trend reversed as the season progressed, with late-bye teams losing more often than not. Finals show a slight rebound (2-1), although the sample remains small.

S34 Verdict: The Bye confers a modest advantage overall, but one that appears to depend more on timing than the bye itself.

 

[Robertio]

Very interesting thread MWPP, since we had the bye last week disguised as the Wonders will be interesting to see how we go against the Demons.

 

[Cadsky]

Disclaimer. Royals consistent poor form renders our results invalid

 

[MWPP]

Very interesting thread MWPP, since we had the bye last week disguised as the Wonders will be interesting to see how we go against the Demons.

We are yet to play the Demons this season but did well the week after we played the Wonders a couple of weeks ago (just ask the Warriors!)

So I like your chances

 

[MWPP]

Disclaimer. Royals consistent poor form renders our results invalid

The Royals have won a flag during my time in the league , unlike the Bears

Admittedly that was in the days before the Bye

 

[TheInjuryFactory]

 

[MWPP]

Your thread looked at how a few teams posted during Bye week during the early part of one season

I’m focussing on the qooty

 

[MWPP]

SEASON 35
Teams coming off the bye went:
13-12 in H&A
2-1 in finals
Overall: 15-13 (54%)
Avg margin: +3.8 (all games)

This again represents a slight edge, but is far from definitive. The H&A numbers sit only marginally above break-even, suggesting no consistent, across-the-board benefit.

What’s more interesting is the structure of the fixture. The Round 14 mass bye fed directly into Round 15, where multiple teams coming off a bye faced each other. These “bye vs bye” matchups effectively cancel out any inherent advantage and suppress the overall signal.

Finals show a modest return (2–1), but again with a small sample. One notable case is Gold City Royals, who experienced a rare bye > QF > bye > PF sequence. Despite the extended rest, they were eliminated in the PF, offering little evidence that additional rest compounds into a meaningful advantage.

S35 Verdict: In S35 the bye appears to offer a modest advantage overall, though that effect may be influenced by fixture structure rather than the bye itself.

 

[TheInjuryFactory]

Your thread looked at how a few teams posted during Bye week during the early part of one season

I’m focussing on the qooty

Oh I know, this just reminded me of my amazing graphic.

 

[Gralin]

this makes your sig look even more suspect

 

[TheInjuryFactory]

this makes your sig look even more suspect

 

[Tigerturbulance]

 

[MWPP]

SEASON 36
Teams coming off the bye went:
10-3 in H&A
3-0 in finals
Overall: 13-3 (81%)
Avg margin: +26.3 (all games)

This season presents a far more positive picture. The H&A record sits comfortably above break-even, offering clear evidence of a consistent advantage, while the strong average margin reinforces a significant tilt in overall performance.

Unlike Season 35, there are no structural distortions caused by bye-on-bye matchups. And unlike Season 34, there is no clear early-season surge. Instead, results remain relatively consistent throughout, making this the cleanest test of the “bye effect” so far. One scheduling anomaly is worth noting. Ophidian Old Boys played twice across a single weekend. Therefore, only the first match following a bye has been included, with the subsequent short-turnaround game excluded.

Finals, however, again lean strongly positive. One team carried a bye directly into finals, while both teams who were coming off a bye after winning their qualifying finals went on to win their preliminary finals comfortably. This continues the trend of stronger returns in finals contexts.

S36 Verdict: A clear positive impact both during the season itself and in finals, representing the strongest evidence so far in favour of a bye advantage.

 

[Falconista]

SEASON 36
Teams coming off the bye went:
10-3 in H&A
3-0 in finals
Overall: 13-3 (81%)
Avg margin: +26.3 (all games)

This season presents a far more positive picture. The H&A record sits comfortably above break-even, offering clear evidence of a consistent advantage, while the strong average margin reinforces a significant tilt in overall performance.

Unlike Season 35, there are no structural distortions caused by bye-on-bye matchups. And unlike Season 34, there is no clear early-season surge. Instead, results remain relatively consistent throughout, making this the cleanest test of the “bye effect” so far. One scheduling anomaly is worth noting. Ophidian Old Boys played twice across a single weekend. Therefore, only the first match following a bye has been included, with the subsequent short-turnaround game excluded.

Finals, however, again lean strongly positive. One team carried a bye directly into finals, while both teams who were coming off a bye after winning their qualifying finals went on to win their preliminary finals comfortably. This continues the trend of stronger returns in finals contexts.

S36 Verdict: A clear positive impact both during the season itself and in finals, representing the strongest evidence so far in favour of a bye advantage.

Yet more evidence that qooty peaked in S36.

 

[MWPP]

Yet more evidence that qooty peaked in S36.

I pretend the S36 GF didn't happen but other than that, it was great

I would happily say goodBYE to it, so to speak

 

[MWPP]

SEASON 37
Teams coming off the bye went:
6-6-1 in H&A
1-1 in finals
Overall: 7-7-1 (50%)
Avg margin: -9.5 (all games)

This season presents a balanced record on the surface, with results in the home-and-away season sitting exactly at break-even. However, the negative average margin suggests that performances were, on the whole, slightly weaker despite the even win–loss split.

Structurally, this is a clean season. All thirteen byes occurred within the standard Round 1-13 framework, with no bye-on-bye matchups and no distortions caused by irregular scheduling. While later rounds featured some fixture compression, no additional genuine byes were created, and all post-bye games have been treated consistently.

A pattern does emerge when results are viewed across the season. Early byes trend negatively, with multiple losses immediately following the break. This is offset by a stronger mid-season period, where teams returning from the bye recorded a run of wins. Late-season results are mixed, including the only draw of the season, reinforcing the overall sense of balance.

Finals again provide only a small sample. Of the two teams to earn a bye via qualifying final victories, one progressed while the other did not, resulting in a neutral return.

S37 Verdict: Results sit at break-even, but underlying performance trends slightly negative. No clear advantage is evident, making this one of the more neutral seasons overall, albeit with a mild negative lean.

 

[MWPP]

SEASON 38
Teams coming off the bye went:
11-14 in H&A
2-1 in finals
Overall: 13-15 (46%)
Avg margin: -7.3 (all games)

This season presents a negative return across the home-and-away fixture. Despite each team receiving two evenly distributed byes, results following those breaks fall below break-even, suggesting no consistent advantage from the scheduling structure.

Structurally, this remains one of the cleanest seasons in the dataset. All matches were played on Sundays, and all byes represent genuine missed rounds. The even allocation of two byes per team removes many of the imbalances seen in earlier seasons, making this a strong test case for the bye effect.However, the introduction of multi-team bye rounds creates a new complication. Several post-bye matchups occur between teams who were both coming off a bye, effectively neutralising any potential advantage in those fixtures. This likely contributes to the weaker overall record.

Finals again diverge from the home-and-away trend. The Fighting Furies, coming off a late-season bye, were defeated in their elimination final. In contrast, both teams who earned byes via qualifying final victories went on to win their preliminary finals. This continues the pattern observed in prior seasons, where any advantage associated with the bye appears more consistently in finals than during the regular season.

S38 Verdict: A negative H&A season within a structurally balanced fixture. Bye-on-bye matchups appear to dilute any measurable advantage, while finals continue to show a more consistent positive effect.

 

[MWPP]

SEASON 39
Teams coming off the bye went:
15-10 in H&A
2-2 in finals
Overall: 17-12 (59%)
Avg margin: +8.8 (all games)

This season presents one of the stronger positive returns across the home-and-away fixture, with teams coming off the bye winning at a 60% rate and recording a strong average margin. Compared to Season 38, this represents a clear rebound, suggesting that the prior season’s negative result may have been an outlier rather than a trend.

Structurally, the season remains consistent with recent years. All byes are genuine missed rounds, and multi-team bye rounds again introduce a number of bye-on-bye matchups. Despite this, results remain clearly positive, indicating that these matchups do not fully negate any advantage. The timing of results is relatively even across the season, with no strong clustering of wins or losses. Instead, the positive return is broadly distributed, reinforcing the idea of a mild but persistent edge rather than a situational spike.

Finals present a more mixed picture. Both teams coming off pre-finals byes won their qualifying finals, continuing the trend of strong immediate returns. However, that advantage did not carry through to the next week, with both sides losing their preliminary finals, including one heavy defeat. This breaks from earlier seasons where earned byes translated more consistently into deeper finals success.

S39 Verdict: A clear positive H&A season, with strong immediate returns following byes. However, the advantage again fails to persist deep into finals, reinforcing the inconsistency of the bye effect beyond the first game back.

 

[Braklet]

S39 Verdict: A clear positive H&A season, with strong immediate returns following byes. However, the advantage again fails to persist deep into finals, reinforcing the inconsistency of the bye effect beyond the first game back.

I'm surprised that we have bye weeks during finals! Thanks for dropping the knowledge, MWPP!

 

[MWPP]

SEASON 40
Teams coming off the bye went:
9-4 in H&A
1-1 in finals
Overall: 10-5 (67%)
Avg margin: +8.3 (all games)

This season continues the generally positive trend observed across the dataset, with teams coming off the bye performing strongly during the home and away season. A 9–4 record represents one of the better H&A returns so far, suggesting a clear short-term benefit in standard scheduling conditions. Overall, Season 40 presents as a strong H&A bye-effect season, but without the same consistent translation into finals success.

Structurally, this is a relatively clean season. Byes are distributed consistently across the fixture, and importantly, no team carries a scheduled bye directly into finals. This removes one of the key distortions seen in earlier seasons and allows for a clearer read on performance trends. The only finals-related byes are earned, with both Gumbies and Dragons receiving a week off after winning their qualifying finals. Their subsequent performances split: Dragons converted their preliminary final comfortably, while Gumbies were beaten decisively. As a result, finals performance sits at an even 1–1, breaking the stronger finals trend observed in some prior seasons.

S40 Verdict: Clear positive impact in the home and away season, but no meaningful advantage carried into finals.

 

[MWPP]

OVERALL SUMMARY
Teams coming off the bye went:
83-61-2 overall (57%)
Finals: 13-7 (65%)
Avg margin: +4.5

Across seven seasons, the data points to a modest but consistent positive bye effect. Teams coming off the bye win at around a 57% rate overall, paired with a small but meaningful positive average margin. This suggests a slight structural advantage compared to the theoretical 50/50 odds, though not one that overwhelmingly dictates outcomes.

Season-to-season variance remains significant. Strong positive seasons (such as S36, S39 and S40) are offset by more neutral or negative returns (notably S37 and S38), reinforcing that the effect is not uniform and is influenced by fixture context, timing, and clustering of byes.

Where the trend becomes more pronounced is in finals. A 13-7 record represents a clear uplift compared to home and away performance, continuing the pattern observed across individual seasons. The additional preparation and recovery time appears to translate more effectively in high-stakes matches than in standard weekly play.

Overall, the bye effect across S34-S40 can be characterised as a consistent but moderate advantage- present across the dataset, but highly context-dependent, and most impactful in finals scenarios rather than during the regular season.

Overall Verdict: The Bye Effect confers a small but real advantage overall, with a stronger and more reliable edge in finals.

 

[Braklet]

Hey MWPP, you're stat crazy!

 

[MWPP]

Hey MWPP, you're stat crazy!

Guilty. I always have been - hence my long-term pet project, Q scores.

I just have too much time on my hands at the moment