List Mgmt. The Case Against Chad.

[dominguez]

I hate them as much as the next purple person but I don't think they will be as bad as some people think.

Sure they are coming from a long way back but they have traded in a few solid players and drafted pretty well.

The new coach could give them a bounce as well.

They would be able to offer the Chad a lot more than us and him together with the man child would give them a midfield boost.

Having said that I wouldn't be sad if what you suggest happens either

The best 7 players on their list this year in McGovern, Barrass, Yeo, Kelly, Allan, Reid, Waterman are as good as any clubs top 7 but Barrass is gone and 3 of them are 30+. After that their list is horrible and I don't think they play finals this decade.

Role players like Baker are just a wasted pick early in a rebuild like Brandon Matera, etc.

 

[ubiquitous226]

The best 7 players on their list this year in McGovern, Barrass, Yeo, Kelly, Allan, Reid, Waterman are as good as any clubs top 7 but Barrass is gone and 3 of them are 30+. After that their list is horrible and I don't think they play finals this decade.

Role players like Baker are just a wasted pick early in a rebuild like Brandon Matera, etc.

Drastic difference there between Matera and Baker.

I think Wilson would be a closer approximation, we have up an F2 and some late pick swaps at the end of 2017 and by the time we were actually pushing he was a non-contributor, although still only 29.

 

[Dockeroo]

I just think there’s a big difference between Chad Warner and Pickett.
One of them is a rolled gold A grader, serial Brownlow contender.
The other is a very good AFL player but is still a B grader in my opinion.

Warner is in the top 12 or so players in the game right now. I think he improves our team over the next 4 or 5 years much more than Pickett would. Just my opinion and I get that most might disagree.

I think if Warner comes into our team he immediately becomes the second best player on the list. There is plenty of AFL fans that would have him ahead of Serong too actually.

Those dynamic goal kicking mids are priceless in the modern game, Warner is exactly that, he’s a very different type of player to our other 3 elite mids in young Serong and Brayshaw.

Thinking of all the recent sides that won the flag.
You need at least one consensus top 10 player in the game, and arguably top 5.

• Dusty Martin, best player in the game 2017-2021
• Petracca Gawn and Oliver (dees were really stacked)
• Geelong (Cameron was most people’s best player in the comp in 2022)
• Collingwood have Daicos
• Lachie Neale for the lions (that Brisbane side batted deep too, very few weak players on that 22/23)

Serong is probably in the 8-12 range if you were to rank the games best players right now. Maybe he can elevate to the Bontempelli/Dusty Martin/Daicos bracket? Not guaranteed.

Young could get there too but also not guaranteed.

When it comes to Warner, he could aswell. He’s currently in the 10-14 range of AFL players if they were ranked.
The point is adding another player in that bracket elevates us again and if we can pull it off we should be going all out, which I’m sure we are.
Pickett is not in the same stratosphere as Warner, not even in the top 50 players in the game in my view.

Big successful clubs find a way to bring these guys in. If Chad Warner asked for a trade to Carlton or Collingwood next year, or Geelong, they would find a way. They wouldn’t be finding excuses, or saying “oh no, we can’t bring him in, he’s gonna take game time off Ed Allan or Tom Atkins”.

I hope we do everything in our power to get Warner across.

 

[DocT]

I just think there’s a big difference between Chad Warner and Pickett.
One of them is a rolled gold A grader, serial Brownlow contender.
The other is a very good AFL player but is still a B grader in my opinion.

Warner is in the top 12 or so players in the game right now. I think he improves our team over the next 4 or 5 years much more than Pickett would. Just my opinion and I get that most might disagree.

I think if Warner comes into our team he immediately becomes the second best player on the list. There is plenty of AFL fans that would have him ahead of Serong too actually.

Those dynamic goal kicking mids are priceless in the modern game, Warner is exactly that, he’s a very different type of player to our other 3 elite mids in young Serong and Brayshaw.

Thinking of all the recent sides that won the flag.
You need at least one consensus top 10 player in the game, and arguably top 5.

• Dusty Martin, best player in the game 2017-2021
• Petracca Gawn and Oliver (dees were really stacked)
• Geelong (Cameron was most people’s best player in the comp in 2022)
• Collingwood have Daicos
• Lachie Neale for the lions (that Brisbane side batted deep too, very few weak players on that 22/23)

Serong is probably in the 8-12 range if you were to rank the games best players right now. Maybe he can elevate to the Bontempelli/Dusty Martin/Daicos bracket? Not guaranteed.

Young could get there too but also not guaranteed.

When it comes to Warner, he could aswell. He’s currently in the 10-14 range of AFL players if they were ranked.
The point is adding another player in that bracket elevates us again and if we can pull it off we should be going all out, which I’m sure we are.
Pickett is not in the same stratosphere as Warner, not even in the top 50 players in the game in my view.

Big successful clubs find a way to bring these guys in. If Chad Warner asked for a trade to Carlton or Collingwood next year, or Geelong, they would find a way. They wouldn’t be finding excuses, or saying “oh no, we can’t bring him in, he’s gonna take game time off Ed Allan or Tom Atkins”.

I hope we do everything in our power to get Warner across.

Great post thanks, well considered, lots to think about.

 

[freo84]

 

[The Round House Drunk]

I just think there’s a big difference between Chad Warner and Pickett.
One of them is a rolled gold A grader, serial Brownlow contender.
The other is a very good AFL player but is still a B grader in my opinion.

Warner is in the top 12 or so players in the game right now. I think he improves our team over the next 4 or 5 years much more than Pickett would. Just my opinion and I get that most might disagree.

I think if Warner comes into our team he immediately becomes the second best player on the list. There is plenty of AFL fans that would have him ahead of Serong too actually.

Those dynamic goal kicking mids are priceless in the modern game, Warner is exactly that, he’s a very different type of player to our other 3 elite mids in young Serong and Brayshaw.

Thinking of all the recent sides that won the flag.
You need at least one consensus top 10 player in the game, and arguably top 5.

• Dusty Martin, best player in the game 2017-2021
• Petracca Gawn and Oliver (dees were really stacked)
• Geelong (Cameron was most people’s best player in the comp in 2022)
• Collingwood have Daicos
• Lachie Neale for the lions (that Brisbane side batted deep too, very few weak players on that 22/23)

Serong is probably in the 8-12 range if you were to rank the games best players right now. Maybe he can elevate to the Bontempelli/Dusty Martin/Daicos bracket? Not guaranteed.

Young could get there too but also not guaranteed.

When it comes to Warner, he could aswell. He’s currently in the 10-14 range of AFL players if they were ranked.
The point is adding another player in that bracket elevates us again and if we can pull it off we should be going all out, which I’m sure we are.
Pickett is not in the same stratosphere as Warner, not even in the top 50 players in the game in my view.

Big successful clubs find a way to bring these guys in. If Chad Warner asked for a trade to Carlton or Collingwood next year, or Geelong, they would find a way. They wouldn’t be finding excuses, or saying “oh no, we can’t bring him in, he’s gonna take game time off Ed Allan or Tom Atkins”.

I hope we do everything in our power to get Warner across.

Good analysis and I totally agree with the bolded bits.

There are just so many factors that we don’t know about:

• How much space is in the cap?
• Does Chad have a clear preference for which WA team he wants to get to?
• Is Chad prepared to accept slightly lower dollars in order for a genuine shot at a premiership with Freo?
• How strongly does Kozi want to get to Freo, and how prepared is he to upset his current paymaster in order to force a move?

I’d argue that while Kozi is not in the top 30 or even 50 players in the AFL, he is most certainly A grade for his position, which is a role we are in dire need of.

And if Kozi comes then Chad’s biggest strength (which is the goals he kicks from midfield) will be less important for Freo if we can put out a forward line with Amiss, Treacy, Bolton and Pickett. That would be far stronger than the forward line Sydney put out this year when Chad kicked 35 goals.

In saying all that, if there is a chance that we can get Chad AND Kozi, I wouldn’t be opposed to cashing in on a player at the level of Darcy or Cox in order to free up the cap space and draft capital to make it happen. Sometimes it’s a necessary part of replenishing the list.

And I agree that our midfield might be lacking some forward drive from clearance that Chad can help address. We often win the centre bounce / stoppage differentials, but it doesn’t always translate on the scoreboard. Perhaps that’s because the game plan was focused on maintaining control from clearance rather than getting it forward quickly at all costs, likely due to a dire lack of quality small forwards.

We’ll find out more in 2025!

 

[Joao]

It should be self-evident in a competition with a salary cap and a hard limit to trade capital, that acquiring any gun player just because the option is there is not automatically the best option.

So there is nothing wrong with this thread.

Still #chadlocked

 

[Dockeroo]

Good analysis and I totally agree with the bolded bits.

There are just so many factors that we don’t know about:

• How much space is in the cap?
• Does Chad have a clear preference for which WA team he wants to get to?
• Is Chad prepared to accept slightly lower dollars in order for a genuine shot at a premiership with Freo?
• How strongly does Kozi want to get to Freo, and how prepared is he to upset his current paymaster in order to force a move?

I’d argue that while Kozi is not in the top 30 or even 50 players in the AFL, he is most certainly A grade for his position, which is a role we are in dire need of.

And if Kozi comes then Chad’s biggest strength (which is the goals he kicks from midfield) will be less important for Freo if we can put out a forward line with Amiss, Treacy, Bolton and Pickett. That would be far stronger than the forward line Sydney put out this year when Chad kicked 35 goals.

In saying all that, if there is a chance that we can get Chad and Pickett, I wouldn’t be opposed to cashing in on a player at the level of Darcy in Cox in order to free up the cap space and draft capital in order to make it happen. Sometimes it’s a necessary part of replenishing the list.

And I agree that our midfield might be lacking some forward drive from clearance. We often win the centre bounce / stoppage differentials, but it doesn’t always translate on the scoreboard. Perhaps that’s because the game plan was focused on maintaining control from clearance rather than getting it forward quickly at all costs, likely due to a dire lack of quality small forwards.

We’ll find out more in 2025!

Yeah that’s all true. I’m not convinced the cap is such a big issue for the next couple of years as it’s going up significantly. Other big clubs seem to find a way to squeeze these guys in all the time. Collingwood are already been spoken about in a trade for Matt Rowell next year who would also command enormous $$$, as just one example. Not to mention Petracca.

If we can’t get Warmer then yeah by all means bring in Kozzie. He’s a fine player and could be a good addition.

I just reckon Warner is a sufficiently superior player to warrant going all out for him first. I have a feeling that’s what the club has been doing anyway if the rumours are to be believed I’ve the last year or so.

 

[Alfonz]

I just think there’s a big difference between Chad Warner and Pickett.
One of them is a rolled gold A grader, serial Brownlow contender.
The other is a very good AFL player but is still a B grader in my opinion.

Warner is in the top 12 or so players in the game right now. I think he improves our team over the next 4 or 5 years much more than Pickett would. Just my opinion and I get that most might disagree.

I think if Warner comes into our team he immediately becomes the second best player on the list. There is plenty of AFL fans that would have him ahead of Serong too actually.

Those dynamic goal kicking mids are priceless in the modern game, Warner is exactly that, he’s a very different type of player to our other 3 elite mids in young Serong and Brayshaw.

Thinking of all the recent sides that won the flag.
You need at least one consensus top 10 player in the game, and arguably top 5.

• Dusty Martin, best player in the game 2017-2021
• Petracca Gawn and Oliver (dees were really stacked)
• Geelong (Cameron was most people’s best player in the comp in 2022)
• Collingwood have Daicos
• Lachie Neale for the lions (that Brisbane side batted deep too, very few weak players on that 22/23)

Serong is probably in the 8-12 range if you were to rank the games best players right now. Maybe he can elevate to the Bontempelli/Dusty Martin/Daicos bracket? Not guaranteed.

Young could get there too but also not guaranteed.

When it comes to Warner, he could aswell. He’s currently in the 10-14 range of AFL players if they were ranked.
The point is adding another player in that bracket elevates us again and if we can pull it off we should be going all out, which I’m sure we are.
Pickett is not in the same stratosphere as Warner, not even in the top 50 players in the game in my view.

Big successful clubs find a way to bring these guys in. If Chad Warner asked for a trade to Carlton or Collingwood next year, or Geelong, they would find a way. They wouldn’t be finding excuses, or saying “oh no, we can’t bring him in, he’s gonna take game time off Ed Allan or Tom Atkins”.

I hope we do everything in our power to get Warner across.

The difference in their quality is reflected in what they'd cost in salary (1.5 million versus 800-900k).

This isn't about upsetting "Allan or Atkins" level of players. It's all about how do we afford Warner. It just doesn't seem possible to me. "Find a way" means rorting the salary cap (which is what those clubs you mention do), or trading a highly paid player or two (e.g. Darcy and/or Cox). Teams will only take on their contracts if they have a good year, but if that happens they will be important players for us and we won't want to offload them.

As for your top 10 players in the game ... we have players who could be in that bracket. Brayshaw won the MVP a few years ago. Serong was 4th in Brownlow and coaches votes in 2024. If Jackson learns how to clunk marks (a very big if), I think he can be transformed into a bona fide superstar.

And don't underestimate Bolton. Put him in a strong side, and he can genuinely be one of the biggest offensive weapons in the league. In 2022 he was 11th in coaches votes, and there is potential for him to go to another level, especially playing half his games at Optus where his record is second to none.

 

[Mags98]

I just think there’s a big difference between Chad Warner and Pickett.
One of them is a rolled gold A grader, serial Brownlow contender.
The other is a very good AFL player but is still a B grader in my opinion.

Warner is in the top 12 or so players in the game right now. I think he improves our team over the next 4 or 5 years much more than Pickett would. Just my opinion and I get that most might disagree.

I think if Warner comes into our team he immediately becomes the second best player on the list. There is plenty of AFL fans that would have him ahead of Serong too actually.

Those dynamic goal kicking mids are priceless in the modern game, Warner is exactly that, he’s a very different type of player to our other 3 elite mids in young Serong and Brayshaw.

Thinking of all the recent sides that won the flag.
You need at least one consensus top 10 player in the game, and arguably top 5.

• Dusty Martin, best player in the game 2017-2021
• Petracca Gawn and Oliver (dees were really stacked)
• Geelong (Cameron was most people’s best player in the comp in 2022)
• Collingwood have Daicos
• Lachie Neale for the lions (that Brisbane side batted deep too, very few weak players on that 22/23)

Serong is probably in the 8-12 range if you were to rank the games best players right now. Maybe he can elevate to the Bontempelli/Dusty Martin/Daicos bracket? Not guaranteed.

Young could get there too but also not guaranteed.

When it comes to Warner, he could aswell. He’s currently in the 10-14 range of AFL players if they were ranked.
The point is adding another player in that bracket elevates us again and if we can pull it off we should be going all out, which I’m sure we are.
Pickett is not in the same stratosphere as Warner, not even in the top 50 players in the game in my view.

Big successful clubs find a way to bring these guys in. If Chad Warner asked for a trade to Carlton or Collingwood next year, or Geelong, they would find a way. They wouldn’t be finding excuses, or saying “oh no, we can’t bring him in, he’s gonna take game time off Ed Allan or Tom Atkins”.

I hope we do everything in our power to get Warner across.

sydney set their side up to get these mids (gulden and heeney as well) to be kicking goals as they have a comparatively weak forward line. weve already added bolton who can supplement our goal kicking, our 3 mids have also developed a knack for kicking goals towards the end of the year.

pickett is just as good at what he does as warner is, the only reason they are rated differently is one is a midfielder. if were already a highly rated midfield side (as the stats suggest) is it wise to put further cap and trade currency into the midfield?

 

[Alfonz]

Yeah that’s all true. I’m not convinced the cap is such a big issue for the next couple of years as it’s going up significantly. Other big clubs seem to find a way to squeeze these guys in all the time. Collingwood are already been spoken about in a trade for Matt Rowell next year who would also command enormous $$$, as just one example. Not to mention Petracca.

If we can’t get Warmer then yeah by all means bring in Kozzie. He’s a fine player and could be a good addition.

I just reckon Warner is a sufficiently superior player to warrant going all out for him first. I have a feeling that’s what the club has been doing anyway if the rumours are to be believed I’ve the last year or so.

The cap going up significantly does not create a magical war chest of money. The increases have already been factored into everybody's contracts. Look at GWS, who have been forced to lose a number of best 22 players even with the increasing salary cap.

Based on the Herald Sun numbers for 2024 (which seem reasonable to me), plus the addition of Bolton, we will likely have the most players in the top 100 paid players in the competition in 2025. By my estimates we will be at 8, while Collingwood will be at 5. They have more room for big signings, hence why they paid big bucks for Perryman and Houston and can still get someone else.

 

[Arcassius]

I agree with the overall sentiment. I don't think it's as formulaic as having a 'top 5' and a 'top 10' player, but more the quality of the weight of numbers that matters.

We had Pavlich, Fyfe, Neale, Sandilands in the one team at one time 2013-2016 - and what killed us repeatedly were the number of journeymen we had and all the little moments where we lost individual battles

 

[gungho]

I just think there’s a big difference between Chad Warner and Pickett.
One of them is a rolled gold A grader, serial Brownlow contender.
The other is a very good AFL player but is still a B grader in my opinion.

Warner is in the top 12 or so players in the game right now. I think he improves our team over the next 4 or 5 years much more than Pickett would. Just my opinion and I get that most might disagree.

I think if Warner comes into our team he immediately becomes the second best player on the list. There is plenty of AFL fans that would have him ahead of Serong too actually.

Those dynamic goal kicking mids are priceless in the modern game, Warner is exactly that, he’s a very different type of player to our other 3 elite mids in young Serong and Brayshaw.

Thinking of all the recent sides that won the flag.
You need at least one consensus top 10 player in the game, and arguably top 5.

• Dusty Martin, best player in the game 2017-2021
• Petracca Gawn and Oliver (dees were really stacked)
• Geelong (Cameron was most people’s best player in the comp in 2022)
• Collingwood have Daicos
• Lachie Neale for the lions (that Brisbane side batted deep too, very few weak players on that 22/23)

Serong is probably in the 8-12 range if you were to rank the games best players right now. Maybe he can elevate to the Bontempelli/Dusty Martin/Daicos bracket? Not guaranteed.

Young could get there too but also not guaranteed.

When it comes to Warner, he could aswell. He’s currently in the 10-14 range of AFL players if they were ranked.
The point is adding another player in that bracket elevates us again and if we can pull it off we should be going all out, which I’m sure we are.
Pickett is not in the same stratosphere as Warner, not even in the top 50 players in the game in my view.

Big successful clubs find a way to bring these guys in. If Chad Warner asked for a trade to Carlton or Collingwood next year, or Geelong, they would find a way. They wouldn’t be finding excuses, or saying “oh no, we can’t bring him in, he’s gonna take game time off Ed Allan or Tom Atkins”.

I hope we do everything in our power to get Warner across.

I reckon Warner would be the best player on our list bar possibly Josh Treacy.

The problem is I just don’t know how we can afford him without something drastic like trading out Darcy.

 

[Dockeroo]

The reality is nobody knows what our salary cap situation is. It’s all speculation.
Obviously there’s a point where it becomes a limiting factor. Someone mentioned above that Geelong Collingwood and Carlton are “rorting the salary cap”. Now I’m not exactly sure what that means but if they are doing it, why aren’t we? How are we supposed to compete with these clubs if we are not?

Leaving aside the salary cap room for a moment (which is a legitimate consideration I agree) - there is simply no comparison between the quality of the two players in question based on exposed AFL form so far in their first 5 years in the comp.

Pickett is a good player.
Warner is a great player.

There is an absolutely massive difference, especially at the pointy end of the season. The great players just stand up, put teams on their back and say “come with me boys”.

I’ve seen Pickett wilt into oblivion under the pressure of big time finals. 2023 v Collingwood was a prime example. He’s nowhere near as reliable as Warner in the clutch moments.

There’s no doubt in my mind which player makes us a superior team from 2025-2029 or so.

We’ll need every stroke of luck imaginable to win even ONE flag with this side in the next few years. The competition is just too intense and too even, and our disadvantage from WA are too ingrained.

If the intel from the like of Snuffaluphagus over the last year on here is true and we have invested all this time into Chad, you have to assume we have the cap room to bring him in? Why would we waste all that time wooing a guy over if we can’t afford him? Teams know their position on this kind of stuff a year or two in advance.

At the end of the day people can disagree - I just want to see us get over the line and win a bloody flag at last and Warner gives us better chance of that the Pickett in my opinion.

Warner is a potential Fyfe/Pavlich level player. A generational talent that will be spoken of for decades to come.

Pickett is a Hayden Ballantyne level player. Fine player sure, but they exist in different stratospheres.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

The reality is nobody knows what our salary cap situation is. It’s all speculation.
Obviously there’s a point where it becomes a limiting factor. Someone mentioned above that Geelong Collingwood and Carlton are “rorting the salary cap”. Now I’m not exactly sure what that means but if they are doing it, why aren’t we? How are we supposed to compete with these clubs if we are not?

Leaving aside the salary cap room for a moment (which is a legitimate consideration I agree) - there is simply no comparison between the quality of the two players in question based on exposed AFL form so far in their first 5 years in the comp.

Pickett is a good player.
Warner is a great player.

There is an absolutely massive difference, especially at the pointy end of the season. The great players just stand up, put teams on their back and say “come with me boys”.

I’ve seen Pickett wilt into oblivion under the pressure of big time finals. 2023 v Collingwood was a prime example. He’s nowhere near as reliable as Warner in the clutch moments.

There’s no doubt in my mind which player makes us a superior team from 2025-2029 or so.

We’ll need every stroke of luck imaginable to win even ONE flag with this side in the next few years. The competition is just too intense and too even, and our disadvantage from WA are too ingrained.

If the intel from the like of Snuffaluphagus over the last year on here is true and we have invested all this time into Chad, you have to assume we have the cap room to bring him in? Why would we waste all that time wooing a guy over if we can’t afford him? Teams know their position on this kind of stuff a year or two in advance.

At the end of the day people can disagree - I just want to see us get over the line and win a bloody flag at last and Warner gives us better chance of that the Pickett in my opinion.

Warner is a potential Fyfe/Pavlich level player. A generational talent that will be spoken of for decades to come.

Pickett is a Hayden Ballantyne level player. Fine player sure, but they exist in different stratospheres.

Honestly, I'm a hack, wouldn't use my name for credibility haha. Twomey is as reliable as anyone though and is on record saying we almost had him a few years ago and Wallsy is nothing if not persistent on the players he rates {CTD is also flawless).

Having said that I really think Bolton might have changed things. Caps seem more flexible than a Cirque Du Solei acrobat and none of us know where ours is at but seriously, the idea of adding up to 2.5m of bluesky contract dollars onto our existing top end over teo years feels absurd. I think they had a choice, of a bird in the hand a year earlier (Bolton ane or two in the bush (Warner) and made the right choice.

Obviously not going to be upset to get him but ill be counting down the days till we're priced out of signing Young as a result