Analysis The Case for a Priority Pick

[Football Pope]

It always annoyed me that we pioneered the Easter Thursday match but as soon as it was popular it was stripped from us an given to other clubs. I thought there was even an agreement with the government in place guaranteeing us those games and yet there was nothing said when we lost the games. That kind of thing tends not to happen to Victorian clubs.

The Interest will be the Good Friday match played between 2 Ethiad based Victorian Clubs....Gee you could double the $'s with a block buster at the G.

 

[M Malice]

I would gladly take another end of first round PP if that was the best on offer.

I know not directly used for Jarrod Berry but would we have ended up with the pick 17 we used on him if not for the PP last year?

 

[spotthedog1]

OK, I've updated my spreadsheet from last year - taken out the delistings, moved the trades and FAs, and added in the new draftees. Our list profile by draft position now looks like this:

Brisbane
7 first round picks on the list (equal last - AFL average 12.72)
4 top 10 picks on the list (equal 14-15th - AFL average 6.5)
2 top 5 picks on the list (equal 12th-15th - AFL average 3.5)
0 pick 1s on the list (one of 10 teams - the other 8 teams share the 16 pick 1s still in the AFL)

This is actually a huge improvement over last year, where we were last or second last in every category (Adelaide have a surprising lack of high draft picks - currently zero top 10 draft picks, though they do have Brad Crouch (GWS mini-draft pick)).

Regardless, despite being down the bottom for a very long time, we still are below AFL average by every measure, and this is not about to change.

The current leaders in AFL drafted talent, unsurprisingly, GWS, with:
21 first round picks (second to Carlton with 22)
14 top 10 picks (first - Carlton second with 13)
10 top 5 picks (first - Carlton second with 7)

 

[dlanod]

OK, I've updated my spreadsheet from last year - taken out the delistings, moved the trades and FAs, and added in the new draftees. Our list profile by draft position now looks like this:

Brisbane
7 first round picks on the list (equal last - AFL average 12.72)
4 top 10 picks on the list (equal 14-15th - AFL average 6.5)
2 top 5 picks on the list (equal 12th-15th - AFL average 3.5)
0 pick 1s on the list (one of 10 teams - the other 8 teams share the 16 pick 1s still in the AFL)

This is actually a huge improvement over last year, where we were last or second last in every category (Adelaide have a surprising lack of high draft picks - currently zero top 10 draft picks, though they do have Brad Crouch (GWS mini-draft pick)).

Regardless, despite being down the bottom for a very long time, we still are below AFL average by every measure, and this is not about to change.

The current leaders in AFL drafted talent, unsurprisingly, GWS, with:
21 first round picks (second to Carlton with 22)
14 top 10 picks (first - Carlton second with 13)
10 top 5 picks (first - Carlton second with 7)

In your numbers, do players who have swapped clubs like Aish or Deledio count against the new club's totals or not?

 

[Kevvo]

In your numbers, do players who have swapped clubs like Aish or Deledio count against the new club's totals or not?

I assumed they had to since Carlton are apparently leading first round picks. Presumably that includes all of the ex-GWS kids. Either that or their numbers must be off-the-charts now.

 

[spotthedog1]

In your numbers, do players who have swapped clubs like Aish or Deledio count against the new club's totals or not?

I assumed they had to since Carlton are apparently leading first round picks. Presumably that includes all of the ex-GWS kids. Either that or their numbers must be off-the-charts now.

Correct. Without any other way to inherently judge value, I've listed all players at drafted value, for the clubs they now play for. So Aish counts as a top 10 and first round pick for Collingwood, and Docherty as a first round pick for Carlton (as examples). Trade value of course can be unders or overs for several reasons, such as a club being held over a barrel by an uncontracted player.

The exception is delisted free agents, who I've removed from the list. Seemed silly to count them at draft value if they got delisted. There was only one of them this year.

I've got the full list for every club, so if anyone wants a copy, let me know.

 

[Bulldogs2017]

I dont think you need one. You have a great young list i seen it first hand round 5. Im not sure why everyone thinks the list is so bad Yes it isnt mature enough to keep up with the best sides yet but in 2 years that will be differnt.

 

[luthor]

I dont think you need one. You have a great young list i seen it first hand round 5. Im not sure why everyone thinks the list is so bad Yes it isnt mature enough to keep up with the best sides yet but in 2 years that will be differnt.

The real question though, is not whether they are mature enough as players but whether they are mature enough as people to actually stick around.

It's no use to us as a club if two or three of them are going home to mummy every year.

We'd be in a lot better place if the likes of Yeo, Docherty, Polec and even Longer had been men enough to stick fat.

 

[Dylan12]

I dont think you need one. You have a great young list i seen it first hand round 5. Im not sure why everyone thinks the list is so bad Yes it isnt mature enough to keep up with the best sides yet but in 2 years that will be differnt.

As luthor said, all well and good to have a great young list at the moment or in two years, albeit with different players given the ones before have pissed off.

The AFL have created this system allowing any player access to free agency at any stage of a players career, regardless of when they say free agency commences and it will always be to the detriment of club's like the Lions.

 

[Lace Out]

Doc and Yeo selected in Derm's All Australian backline.

 

[spotthedog1]

I dont think you need one. You have a great young list i seen it first hand round 5. Im not sure why everyone thinks the list is so bad Yes it isnt mature enough to keep up with the best sides yet but in 2 years that will be differnt.

Sorry, but I think that's rubbish. We've heard these quotes for the last 5 years - "good young list", "building strong", "will be a force". But really, it's all just crap, and provides absolutely zero information or proof. We can continue on, but I reckon if something isn't done, in another 5 years we'll hear this exact same comment.

4 posts before yours, I provided proof of our list quality. We are below AFL-average in terms of the number of top 5 draftees, top 10 draftees, and entire first round draftees. Thankfully, we're not actually the bottom of that list this year (we were last year). Despite it being the 8th consecutive year we won't have made the finals, we haven't managed to accrue any drafted talent - that's why everyone thinks the list is bad... We have two draftees selected in the top 5, and one of them is leaving this year. The other was only selected last year, and hasn't re-signed yet either.

 

[Mr Ripper]

Doc and Yeo selected in Derm's All Australian backline.

With Derm at CHF?

 

[jjami15]

I dont think you need one. You have a great young list i seen it first hand round 5. Im not sure why everyone thinks the list is so bad Yes it isnt mature enough to keep up with the best sides yet but in 2 years that will be differnt.

Is that you Zorko?

 

[Lace Out]

Here tis Gil

 

[James North]

I dont think you need one. You have a great young list i seen it first hand round 5. Im not sure why everyone thinks the list is so bad Yes it isnt mature enough to keep up with the best sides yet but in 2 years that will be differnt.

2007 called, it wants its phrase back.

 

[luthor]

Is that you Zorko?

GOT HIM

YESSSS!!!

 

[The Zork]

Our young listed players are arguably on par with most of the competitions young lists. It's just our youth get more exposure, a lot of the times before they are ready.

If it were a competition of under 21/22's vs under 21/22's.
I think we would be maybe mid ladder, probably just higher.
I'm not going to analyse the comps list, it's just a feeling.

The perception out there that we have a good young list is due to every 4-5 weeks we put on a really good showing with hipwood doing some flashy things or Harris holding down a defensive post but ultimately losing.
The weeks following we get belted followed by the honourable loss again.

Opposition supporters see the 1 standout game (ie: vs bulldogs) and forget the drubbings that preceded or follow.

While our youth develop (debate is still out there if we are extracting the most out of them in our current environment) the rest of the comps youth is developing in stronger squads and are certainly not waiting around for us.

 

[spotthedog1]

Our young listed players are arguably on par with most of the competitions young lists. It's just our youth get more exposure, a lot of the times before they are ready.

If it were a competition of under 21/22's vs under 21/22's.
I think we would be maybe mid ladder, probably just higher.
I'm not going to analyse the comps list, it's just a feeling.

The perception out there that we have a good young list is due to every 4-5 weeks we put on a really good showing with hipwood doing some flashy things or Harris holding down a defensive post but ultimately losing.
The weeks following we get belted followed by the honourable loss again.

Opposition supporters see the 1 standout game (ie: vs bulldogs) and forget the drubbings that preceded or follow.

While our youth develop (debate is still out there if we are extracting the most out of them in our current environment) the rest of the comps youth is developing in stronger squads and are certainly not waiting around for us.

Looking at the last 5 drafts (2012-16) alone:

Brisbane
1st round draft picks - 6 (AFL Average - 5.9)
Top 10 draft picks - 3 (AFL Average - 2.7)
Top 5 draft picks - 2 (AFL Average - 1.4)

Worst draft profile for the last 5 years is West Coast with 3 in the first round, none in the top 10 (picks 11, 11, 13), or Hawthorn, who also have 3 (picks 2, 19, 22). Best would be a fight between GWS, Carlton, and Gold Coast (10-11 1st rounders, 5-7 top 10, 2-4 top 5).

We're probably slightly above average, though last year we were significantly below average, which is reflective of our continually refreshing list. Excluding the last two drafts, we have just 3 first round picks on our list - Rich, Mayes and Paparone, and Paparone was a pick in the 20s (23)... If that doesn't tell people something about how hard it is to retain talent in QLD, nothing will...

 

[The Zork]

Looking at the last 5 drafts (2012-16) alone:

Brisbane
1st round draft picks - 6 (AFL Average - 5.9)
Top 10 draft picks - 3 (AFL Average - 2.7)
Top 5 draft picks - 2 (AFL Average - 1.4)

Worst draft profile for the last 5 years is West Coast with 3 in the first round, none in the top 10 (picks 11, 11, 13), or Hawthorn, who also have 3 (picks 2, 19, 22). Best would be a fight between GWS, Carlton, and Gold Coast (10-11 1st rounders, 5-7 top 10, 2-4 top 5).

We're probably slightly above average, though last year we were significantly below average, which is reflective of our continually refreshing list. Excluding the last two drafts, we have just 3 first round picks on our list - Rich, Mayes and Paparone, and Paparone was a pick in the 20s (23)... If that doesn't tell people something about how hard it is to retain talent in QLD, nothing will...

Sorry by on par I meant in terms of performance and ability of our young players if they were pitted against all other clubs young players.

Going by your findings the picks we have had that have left should have left us easy above average of high end talent!

 

[marooned]

Just can't see Gil giving us pick 2 as priority pick.Pick 9 would be fair just before finalists and would land a quality youngster.

 

[briztoon]

That would be pick 11.

 

[Viceregal]

Just can't see Gil giving us pick 2 as priority pick.Pick 9 would be fair just before finalists and would land a quality youngster.

In the interest of fairness it probably should be pick 1 - that way we and everybody else gets pushed back the same amount!

 

[cotter101]

I'd be aiming for a mid first round pick. No way we get a start of first round PP and end up having pick 1 and 2.

 

[mikey127]

simple solution here I reckon.

We don't get a priority pick as such be we can prelist Connor Ballenden and don't have to use any points/picks. What do people think of this idea?

 

[Dalions]

simple solution here I reckon.

We don't get a priority pick as such be we can prelist Connor Ballenden and don't have to use any points/picks. What do people think of this idea?

It would be a great outcome, but I am not sure they will go for it.
No one would even bother bidding.
It would effectively be a mid first round priority pick as that is where he is expected to go.