We're two rounds into the season and we've already had three different premiership favourites.
I'll use this thread to keep a record of the change in Premiership favourites week to week:
Pre Round 1 - Geelong ($5) - won the Grand Final by 15 goals and entered the season as clearly the team to beat. Consensus is that Melbourne will rebound strongly after their lame finish to 2022, Richmond will re-enter flag contention with the inclusion of Taranto and Hopper, Brisbane too with the addition of Dunkley, Ashcroft and Gunston, but Collingwood's lucky run in 2022 can't continue and they will be on the fringe of the top 8.
Round 1 - Melbourne ($5) - Thump the Western Bulldogs and the Grawndy combination look ominous. Geelong lose to Collingwood in a high quality encounter. Brisbane are thumped by Port Adelaide in a surprise result.
Round 2 - Collingwood ($5.50) - Win their first two games against Geelong and Port Adelaide, scoring 125 and 135 points in those games. Melbourne beaten by Brisbane (Gawn knee injury) and Geelong lose their first two games. Sydney also must be in the mix after comfortably winning their first two matches albeit against lesser opposition.
Round 3 - Collingwood ($4.50) - Collingwood the first team to retain premiership favouritism over consecutive weeks after a comfortable victory over Richmond with the scoreboard flattering the Tigers. Melbourne also firm in second place after an impressive 50 point win over Sydney, whilst defending premiers Geelong fall to 0 and 3, the first team to do so since North Melbourne in 1976.
Round 4 - Melbourne ($4.50) - After firming into equal favouritism during the week, Melbourne did what they needed to do against a depleted West Coast in Perth to move into premiership favouritism, whilst Collingwood struggled with their lack of rucking options, on the receiving end of 10 consecutive goals from Brisbane, who share the next line with a Carlton team who are just going though finding a way to win (or draw). Saints remain undefeated and may move into the conversation with a strong showing against Collingwood next week, whilst pre-season favourites Geelong open their account with a Jeremy Cameron led 10 plus goal victory against the wooden spoon favourites, Hawthorn.
Round 5 - Melbourne/Collingwood ($5) - Equal favourites after Collingwood break St. Kilda's unbeaten run despite losing another big man to what looks like a medium term stretch on the sidelines, whilst Melbourne look unconvincing in a surprising loss to Essendon. Brisbane on the next line after an impressive outing against North Melbourne, whilst Geelong have done what they needed to do in the past two weeks against Hawthorn and West Coast to suggest they're not done with yet. Adelaide, Port Adelaide, St. Kilda and Essendon confirm as genuine challengers for the Top 8... can any of these teams be genuine premiership contenders this year?
Round 6 - Melbourne/Collingwood ($5) - The top two fancies remain equal favourites after both saluting in come from behind victories despite both being on the receiving end of some very dubious umpiring. Geelong the big firmers this week after squaring the ledger at 3 wins and 3 losses courtesy of another belting of a Sydney team who appear to be sporting scars from last year's Grand Final, whilst Richmond and Carlton are the big drifters (only the most astute of judges would have predicted that at the start of the season).
Round 7 - Collingwood ($4.50) - The Magpies edge into outright favouritism courtesy of a gallant against the odds win against an up and about Adelaide team going for their 5th straight victory on their home deck. Outright top position after 7 matches having had one of the hardest draws in the competition to date, they couldn't be happier with their start to the season. Melbourne and Geelong sit on the next line half a point behind Collingwood, with Brisbane the only other team in single figure odds with a gap to the next batch of teams.
Round 8 - Collingwood ($4.50) - Collingwood retain slight premiership favouritism ahead of Melbourne and Geelong.
Round 9 - Collingwood ($4.25) - The Magpies flex their muscle against a hapless GWS and drop a quarter of a point, maintaining premiership favouritism ahead of Melbourne. Geelong and Brisbane share the third line of betting, the former losing their 4th match of the season and surely will be battling to finish top 4 now? They are unders for mine. Port Adelaide and Adelaide surging and will possibly be right in the mix at some stage of the year, whilst St. Kilda and Essendon appear to be slightly dropping off. Carlton now at $34 for those interested.
Round 10 - Collingwood ($3.75) - The Pies firm further after a comprehensive victory over their old foe, and I suspect they'll be locked into this position for a while now given the next two games are against North Melbourne and West Coast. Port Adelaide announce themselves after a season defining victory against Melbourne despite the absence of Dixon and Marshall. Western Bulldogs also announce themselves, and are well placed with 9 of their final 13 matches to be against current bottom 9 sides. Brisbane keep winning and look ominous, whilst Geelong surely must be written off after another loss - they simply can't make top 4 now though continue to be well 'unders' at $8.
Round 11 - Collingwood ($3.25) - The Magpies firm further after a professional victory over North Melbourne whilst all other Premiership favourites (with the exception of Port Adelaide) stumble in a round of upsets. A third straight loss to Geelong mean they are struggling to make the Top 8 let alone Top 4 - surely we can put a line through them now? Melbourne continue their patchy form with an upset loss against Fremantle in Melbourne. Port Adelaide and Brisbane (despite their loss to Adelaide) appear to be the next best sides in it after Collingwood and occupy the second and third places on the ladder respectively. Popular selections over the pre-season Carlton and Richmond are now sitting at $81 and $101 respectively for those interested.
Round 12 - Collingwood ($3.25) - Collingwood remain firm favourites after winning their 11th of their first 12 games of the season. Melbourne and Brisbane share the second line, with Port Adelaide on the third line of betting. These four teams appear the likely top 4, though the Kings Birthday match will tell us a lot about Melbourne's prospects in 2023.
Round 13 - Collingwood ($3.50) - Slight easing of the Premiership favourites this week, with a four point loss to the new second favourites in Melbourne, where many would say the final margin flattered Collingwood. Port Adelaide continue their winning streak (now 10) and sit in third favouritism, whilst a shock loss to Hawthorn for Brisbane see their odds drift. Geelong the only other realistic chance, though remain unlikely to make the top four.
Round 18 - Collingwood ($2.75) - Collingwood are now about as short as a team can get before the start of a Finals Series, having opened up a gap of a game and percentage on second placed Port Adelaide, who had their 13 game winning streak abruptly ended by none other than the resurgent Carlton! Brisbane and Melbourne fought out a thrilling match to all but lock in their positions in the top 4, though with reigning premiers Geelong gaining momentum after leaping to 5th on the ladder with a bullet, we are set for a thrilling end to the season!
Round 22 - Collingwood ($3.50) - A couple of losses to Collingwood see them ease out 3/4 of a point since the last update, though the Pies are one of three teams (together with Brisbane and Port Adelaide) who have now officially locked away their top 4 positions. Melbourne second favourites - the most likely scenario now is a mouth-watering Qualifying Final against Collingwood at the 'G. Carlton the big movers since the last update, who amazingly sit at $7 on the back of 8 consecutive wins. Though $7 seems well unders for mine - would they be $1.62 odds for each of their 4 finals matches - their first Elimination Final in a decade against whoever, then an MCG clash against either Pies/Demons, then an interstate Preliminary Final against a rested Port or Brisbane, then a Grand Final against the winner of the Pies v. Melbourne Qualifying Final? If you like the Blues, you're better off waiting until they officially qualify for finals, and then backing them in each finals game.
Let's see how often the flag favourites change over the course of the season, and how many different flag favourites we see...
I'll use this thread to keep a record of the change in Premiership favourites week to week:
Pre Round 1 - Geelong ($5) - won the Grand Final by 15 goals and entered the season as clearly the team to beat. Consensus is that Melbourne will rebound strongly after their lame finish to 2022, Richmond will re-enter flag contention with the inclusion of Taranto and Hopper, Brisbane too with the addition of Dunkley, Ashcroft and Gunston, but Collingwood's lucky run in 2022 can't continue and they will be on the fringe of the top 8.
Round 1 - Melbourne ($5) - Thump the Western Bulldogs and the Grawndy combination look ominous. Geelong lose to Collingwood in a high quality encounter. Brisbane are thumped by Port Adelaide in a surprise result.
Round 2 - Collingwood ($5.50) - Win their first two games against Geelong and Port Adelaide, scoring 125 and 135 points in those games. Melbourne beaten by Brisbane (Gawn knee injury) and Geelong lose their first two games. Sydney also must be in the mix after comfortably winning their first two matches albeit against lesser opposition.
Round 3 - Collingwood ($4.50) - Collingwood the first team to retain premiership favouritism over consecutive weeks after a comfortable victory over Richmond with the scoreboard flattering the Tigers. Melbourne also firm in second place after an impressive 50 point win over Sydney, whilst defending premiers Geelong fall to 0 and 3, the first team to do so since North Melbourne in 1976.
Round 4 - Melbourne ($4.50) - After firming into equal favouritism during the week, Melbourne did what they needed to do against a depleted West Coast in Perth to move into premiership favouritism, whilst Collingwood struggled with their lack of rucking options, on the receiving end of 10 consecutive goals from Brisbane, who share the next line with a Carlton team who are just going though finding a way to win (or draw). Saints remain undefeated and may move into the conversation with a strong showing against Collingwood next week, whilst pre-season favourites Geelong open their account with a Jeremy Cameron led 10 plus goal victory against the wooden spoon favourites, Hawthorn.
Round 5 - Melbourne/Collingwood ($5) - Equal favourites after Collingwood break St. Kilda's unbeaten run despite losing another big man to what looks like a medium term stretch on the sidelines, whilst Melbourne look unconvincing in a surprising loss to Essendon. Brisbane on the next line after an impressive outing against North Melbourne, whilst Geelong have done what they needed to do in the past two weeks against Hawthorn and West Coast to suggest they're not done with yet. Adelaide, Port Adelaide, St. Kilda and Essendon confirm as genuine challengers for the Top 8... can any of these teams be genuine premiership contenders this year?
Round 6 - Melbourne/Collingwood ($5) - The top two fancies remain equal favourites after both saluting in come from behind victories despite both being on the receiving end of some very dubious umpiring. Geelong the big firmers this week after squaring the ledger at 3 wins and 3 losses courtesy of another belting of a Sydney team who appear to be sporting scars from last year's Grand Final, whilst Richmond and Carlton are the big drifters (only the most astute of judges would have predicted that at the start of the season).
Round 7 - Collingwood ($4.50) - The Magpies edge into outright favouritism courtesy of a gallant against the odds win against an up and about Adelaide team going for their 5th straight victory on their home deck. Outright top position after 7 matches having had one of the hardest draws in the competition to date, they couldn't be happier with their start to the season. Melbourne and Geelong sit on the next line half a point behind Collingwood, with Brisbane the only other team in single figure odds with a gap to the next batch of teams.
Round 8 - Collingwood ($4.50) - Collingwood retain slight premiership favouritism ahead of Melbourne and Geelong.
Round 9 - Collingwood ($4.25) - The Magpies flex their muscle against a hapless GWS and drop a quarter of a point, maintaining premiership favouritism ahead of Melbourne. Geelong and Brisbane share the third line of betting, the former losing their 4th match of the season and surely will be battling to finish top 4 now? They are unders for mine. Port Adelaide and Adelaide surging and will possibly be right in the mix at some stage of the year, whilst St. Kilda and Essendon appear to be slightly dropping off. Carlton now at $34 for those interested.
Round 10 - Collingwood ($3.75) - The Pies firm further after a comprehensive victory over their old foe, and I suspect they'll be locked into this position for a while now given the next two games are against North Melbourne and West Coast. Port Adelaide announce themselves after a season defining victory against Melbourne despite the absence of Dixon and Marshall. Western Bulldogs also announce themselves, and are well placed with 9 of their final 13 matches to be against current bottom 9 sides. Brisbane keep winning and look ominous, whilst Geelong surely must be written off after another loss - they simply can't make top 4 now though continue to be well 'unders' at $8.
Round 11 - Collingwood ($3.25) - The Magpies firm further after a professional victory over North Melbourne whilst all other Premiership favourites (with the exception of Port Adelaide) stumble in a round of upsets. A third straight loss to Geelong mean they are struggling to make the Top 8 let alone Top 4 - surely we can put a line through them now? Melbourne continue their patchy form with an upset loss against Fremantle in Melbourne. Port Adelaide and Brisbane (despite their loss to Adelaide) appear to be the next best sides in it after Collingwood and occupy the second and third places on the ladder respectively. Popular selections over the pre-season Carlton and Richmond are now sitting at $81 and $101 respectively for those interested.
Round 12 - Collingwood ($3.25) - Collingwood remain firm favourites after winning their 11th of their first 12 games of the season. Melbourne and Brisbane share the second line, with Port Adelaide on the third line of betting. These four teams appear the likely top 4, though the Kings Birthday match will tell us a lot about Melbourne's prospects in 2023.
Round 13 - Collingwood ($3.50) - Slight easing of the Premiership favourites this week, with a four point loss to the new second favourites in Melbourne, where many would say the final margin flattered Collingwood. Port Adelaide continue their winning streak (now 10) and sit in third favouritism, whilst a shock loss to Hawthorn for Brisbane see their odds drift. Geelong the only other realistic chance, though remain unlikely to make the top four.
Round 18 - Collingwood ($2.75) - Collingwood are now about as short as a team can get before the start of a Finals Series, having opened up a gap of a game and percentage on second placed Port Adelaide, who had their 13 game winning streak abruptly ended by none other than the resurgent Carlton! Brisbane and Melbourne fought out a thrilling match to all but lock in their positions in the top 4, though with reigning premiers Geelong gaining momentum after leaping to 5th on the ladder with a bullet, we are set for a thrilling end to the season!
Round 22 - Collingwood ($3.50) - A couple of losses to Collingwood see them ease out 3/4 of a point since the last update, though the Pies are one of three teams (together with Brisbane and Port Adelaide) who have now officially locked away their top 4 positions. Melbourne second favourites - the most likely scenario now is a mouth-watering Qualifying Final against Collingwood at the 'G. Carlton the big movers since the last update, who amazingly sit at $7 on the back of 8 consecutive wins. Though $7 seems well unders for mine - would they be $1.62 odds for each of their 4 finals matches - their first Elimination Final in a decade against whoever, then an MCG clash against either Pies/Demons, then an interstate Preliminary Final against a rested Port or Brisbane, then a Grand Final against the winner of the Pies v. Melbourne Qualifying Final? If you like the Blues, you're better off waiting until they officially qualify for finals, and then backing them in each finals game.
Let's see how often the flag favourites change over the course of the season, and how many different flag favourites we see...
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