The Chicken Little thread 2021 edition

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jj1978

Norm Smith Medallist
May 11, 2006
8,011
9,513
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
When it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it most likely is a duck.

There is enough data in the last 15 years (lets ignore some of the post sal cap breach years), that behaviours, drafting, education and above all swagger is not as optimal as it needs be. The breach killed our swagger (a big part of that identity) and the Carlton of old died that day, will we ever develop a new swagger/identity that brings success? Current data does not look overly positive.
 

Gethelred

Brownlow Medallist
May 1, 2016
17,735
35,832
AFL Club
Carlton
Anyone get the picture that we've undermined our own rebuild?

Just asking.
I get the picture that the media'd love for us - the fans - to undermine the club into change. They're hitting us, in a weekend in which St Kilda (a supposed prospect for top 4) got monstered by the Tigers by 86 points, Essendon got done by 57 points, and Hawthorn got done by 50 points by Melbourne. There were worse losses this round, and there were bigger stories; Collingwood 1-4, for example.

We are now famous for blinking, for acceding to media pressure. We'll move, just you watch us: we'll announce our expectations to the world at large, and if you put enough pressure on us we'll move. Don't worry about whatever we say, just keep the pressure on. Eventually, Carlton will play Essendon (in two weeks, for those counting) and if we ramp up the pressure enough and we lose, we could see the club fragment into constituent parts. And won't that be fun for the AFL establishment, the fans of other clubs, the media who need something to report!

I see our rebuild as a process, because that's what list management is. Good clubs manage to turn a poor draft hand into ones players, and can continue to renew a list going forward. Adelaide and WC don't really bottom out, because their development and talent ID is decent to very good; they don't have the advantages Sydney or Geelong do, but they more than get by. We only needed to rebuild because the entire club including the list was f’ed; we're now coming out of it, but with our reputation for undermining ourselves based on media pressure damn ******* straight they're aiming for us.

It's the narrative, not the reality. The reality is, we're in a vastly better situation than we've been in since 2012, on and off the field. We have further to travel, and we need to keep the process of turning over the list and actively managing it appropriately, and we need most desperately to not listen to the enclaves of whispers external to the club and the media reports smashing us because we're an easy target likely to react.

We need to show some organizational strength for once.
 

LanceRomance

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 21, 2011
19,001
28,281
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
I get the picture that the media'd love for us - the fans - to undermine the club into change. They're hitting us, in a weekend in which St Kilda (a supposed prospect for top 4) got monstered by the Tigers by 86 points, Essendon got done by 57 points, and Hawthorn got done by 50 points by Melbourne. There were worse losses this round, and there were bigger stories; Collingwood 1-4, for example.

We are now famous for blinking, for acceding to media pressure. We'll move, just you watch us: we'll announce our expectations to the world at large, and if you put enough pressure on us we'll move. Don't worry about whatever we say, just keep the pressure on. Eventually, Carlton will play Essendon (in two weeks, for those counting) and if we ramp up the pressure enough and we lose, we could see the club fragment into constituent parts. And won't that be fun for the AFL establishment, the fans of other clubs, the media who need something to report!

I see our rebuild as a process, because that's what list management is. Good clubs manage to turn a poor draft hand into ones players, and can continue to renew a list going forward. Adelaide and WC don't really bottom out, because their development and talent ID is decent to very good; they don't have the advantages Sydney or Geelong do, but they more than get by. We only needed to rebuild because the entire club including the list was f’ed; we're now coming out of it, but with our reputation for undermining ourselves based on media pressure damn ******* straight they're aiming for us.

It's the narrative, not the reality. The reality is, we're in a vastly better situation than we've been in since 2012, on and off the field. We have further to travel, and we need to keep the process of turning over the list and actively managing it appropriately, and we need most desperately to not listen to the enclaves of whispers external to the club and the media reports smashing us because we're an easy target likely to react.

We need to show some organizational strength for once.

Yes, and the autopsy thread copped a chicken little title.
 

thylacine60

Post-Human
Jun 4, 2006
106,512
188,301
Elwood FFS
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Insert Token EPL Club
I get the picture that the media'd love for us - the fans - to undermine the club into change. They're hitting us, in a weekend in which St Kilda (a supposed prospect for top 4) got monstered by the Tigers by 86 points, Essendon got done by 57 points, and Hawthorn got done by 50 points by Melbourne. There were worse losses this round, and there were bigger stories; Collingwood 1-4, for example.

We are now famous for blinking, for acceding to media pressure. We'll move, just you watch us: we'll announce our expectations to the world at large, and if you put enough pressure on us we'll move. Don't worry about whatever we say, just keep the pressure on. Eventually, Carlton will play Essendon (in two weeks, for those counting) and if we ramp up the pressure enough and we lose, we could see the club fragment into constituent parts. And won't that be fun for the AFL establishment, the fans of other clubs, the media who need something to report!

I see our rebuild as a process, because that's what list management is. Good clubs manage to turn a poor draft hand into ones players, and can continue to renew a list going forward. Adelaide and WC don't really bottom out, because their development and talent ID is decent to very good; they don't have the advantages Sydney or Geelong do, but they more than get by. We only needed to rebuild because the entire club including the list was f’ed; we're now coming out of it, but with our reputation for undermining ourselves based on media pressure damn ******* straight they're aiming for us.

It's the narrative, not the reality. The reality is, we're in a vastly better situation than we've been in since 2012, on and off the field. We have further to travel, and we need to keep the process of turning over the list and actively managing it appropriately, and we need most desperately to not listen to the enclaves of whispers external to the club and the media reports smashing us because we're an easy target likely to react.

We need to show some organizational strength for once.
Silly stuff. We are far and away the great fail and the media has every right to come for us. Believe it or not, game commentators don't really give a sh*t about poor little Carlton supporters and their feeble little sensitivities. Nor should they.
 

Stamos

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 30, 2010
15,950
28,250
AFL Club
Carlton
I get the picture that the media'd love for us - the fans - to undermine the club into change. They're hitting us, in a weekend in which St Kilda (a supposed prospect for top 4) got monstered by the Tigers by 86 points, Essendon got done by 57 points, and Hawthorn got done by 50 points by Melbourne. There were worse losses this round, and there were bigger stories; Collingwood 1-4, for example.

We are now famous for blinking, for acceding to media pressure. We'll move, just you watch us: we'll announce our expectations to the world at large, and if you put enough pressure on us we'll move. Don't worry about whatever we say, just keep the pressure on. Eventually, Carlton will play Essendon (in two weeks, for those counting) and if we ramp up the pressure enough and we lose, we could see the club fragment into constituent parts. And won't that be fun for the AFL establishment, the fans of other clubs, the media who need something to report!

I see our rebuild as a process, because that's what list management is. Good clubs manage to turn a poor draft hand into ones players, and can continue to renew a list going forward. Adelaide and WC don't really bottom out, because their development and talent ID is decent to very good; they don't have the advantages Sydney or Geelong do, but they more than get by. We only needed to rebuild because the entire club including the list was f’ed; we're now coming out of it, but with our reputation for undermining ourselves based on media pressure damn ******* straight they're aiming for us.

It's the narrative, not the reality. The reality is, we're in a vastly better situation than we've been in since 2012, on and off the field. We have further to travel, and we need to keep the process of turning over the list and actively managing it appropriately, and we need most desperately to not listen to the enclaves of whispers external to the club and the media reports smashing us because we're an easy target likely to react.

We need to show some organizational strength for once.
How have we improved since the end of 2019?
What evidence is there that we're heading in the right direction?
 

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Gethelred

Brownlow Medallist
May 1, 2016
17,735
35,832
AFL Club
Carlton
Silly stuff. We are far and away the great fail and the media has every right to come for us. Believe it or not, game commentators don't really give a sh*t about poor little Carlton supporters and their feeble little sensitivities. Nor should they.
This was not a 'they've got it in for us' rant. This is because, when they've brought pressure to bear in the past - with Ratts, with Malthouse, with Bolton - we've blinked. This is them doing it because they're in the interest of putting the fox in the henhouse, and seeing what happens next.

The perception is, negative press about Carlton sells, and sells much better than the self-same about Essendon or St Kilda.

Look at this board, and tell me that the majority of the posters having a good hard tantrum since the last game don't immediately respond to this stuff. Tell me that those who disagree - coming at it from the other side - don't also overreact, by publicly deriding the media and the pundits.

And I don't trust the club, precisely because they've blinked. If they were more capable of keeping the external criticism out and making what they think is the right choice - sans backroom pressure from the Mathisons et al - then I'd have more faith.
 

SkyhorseTamer

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 4, 2016
9,000
23,532
AFL Club
Carlton
This was not a 'they've got it in for us' rant. This is because, when they've brought pressure to bear in the past - with Ratts, with Malthouse, with Bolton - we've blinked. This is them doing it because they're in the interest of putting the fox in the henhouse, and seeing what happens next.

The perception is, negative press about Carlton sells, and sells much better than the self-same about Essendon or St Kilda.

Look at this board, and tell me that the majority of the posters having a good hard tantrum since the last game don't immediately respond to this stuff. Tell me that those who disagree - coming at it from the other side - don't also overreact, by publicly deriding the media and the pundits.

And I don't trust the club, precisely because they've blinked. If they were more capable of keeping the external criticism out and making what they think is the right choice - sans backroom pressure from the Mathisons et al - then I'd have more faith.
:thumbsu: to both your messages here..
 

Gethelred

Brownlow Medallist
May 1, 2016
17,735
35,832
AFL Club
Carlton
How have we improved since the end of 2019?
What evidence is there that we're heading in the right direction?
... I mean, I made a list for Moody last week.

We've added nigh constantly to the football department, and to recruiting. We've added a Carlton reserves side, and we're more open with what the development group is trying to do with those players. We have the players we had in 19, plus the players we've taken in the two years since: Philp and Ramsay, Durdin and Parks and Caroll, and all have put some pretty decent footy out there. We've added Martin, Williams and Fogarty, and all are contributors.

SPS's form has been patchy, but for all the criticism he's building. Dow has been misused, but is on the edge of something. LOB led the team for tackles against Richmond, and is putting together a healthy case for promotion in the twos.

We have a dedicated list management department now, not nepotism and personality based recruiting. We have a development structure with people in it that are well credentialed externally. We have broken our own membership records across three successive years. Princes Park is undergoing redevelopment, and is the home of AFLW.

Do we want to continue kicking ourselves for everything short of the Kennedy assassination? Are we done yet?
 

Stamos

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 30, 2010
15,950
28,250
AFL Club
Carlton
... I mean, I made a list for Moody last week.

We've added nigh constantly to the football department, and to recruiting. We've added a Carlton reserves side, and we're more open with what the development group is trying to do with those players. We have the players we had in 19, plus the players we've taken in the two years since: Philp and Ramsay, Durdin and Parks and Caroll, and all have put some pretty decent footy out there. We've added Martin, Williams and Fogarty, and all are contributors.

SPS's form has been patchy, but for all the criticism he's building. Dow has been misused, but is on the edge of something. LOB led the team for tackles against Richmond, and is putting together a healthy case for promotion in the twos.

We have a dedicated list management department now, not nepotism and personality based recruiting. We have a development structure with people in it that are well credentialed externally. We have broken our own membership records across three successive years. Princes Park is undergoing redevelopment, and is the home of AFLW.

Do we want to continue kicking ourselves for everything short of the Kennedy assassination? Are we done yet?
None of that is showing as genuine improvement on field yet though.

And LOB for example was best 22 when we went 6-5 in 2019. Leading tackles in a single loss before being dropped doesn't really demonstrate improvement.
 

Gethelred

Brownlow Medallist
May 1, 2016
17,735
35,832
AFL Club
Carlton
None of that is showing as genuine improvement on field yet though.

And LOB for example was best 22 when we went 6-5 in 2019. Leading tackles in a single loss before being dropped doesn't really demonstrate improvement.
Stamos, you asked me what was genuinely different between now and then. LOB is not and was not known for his tackling predraft; it's a clear and distinct way he can put his name ahead of Newnes who is not a bit tackler. You asked for progress, I gave you progress. There's also the fact that we - you know - brought in Newnes, Martin, Williams; all players who have an argument to play wing before him, and due to their inclusion we've shifted Williamson, Setterfield and even Ed to the wing ahead of him.

This has created an increased competitiveness for positions in the firsts, which is a good thing, and something we didn't have in 2019.

What we had in 2019 was a bunch of our most prominent in career best form, the new coach bounce, and the unexpected meaning opposition couldn't plan for us. This year, Casboult and Saad have both been playing injured, and Gov has been out. They've also decided it's midfield or bust for Kennedy, despite the fact that he cracked into the ones as a leadup medium forward.

We have quite a few issues, and it doesn't do to ignore them. But what also will not do is overreacting or overcompensating for them. We're finally starting to get the off-field right, for the first time in our modern era. Let's not fu** it up because 'We're Carlton, and did you hear what he said about us?'
 
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Arr0w

Brownlow Medallist
Nov 13, 2015
29,943
81,139
In Transit
AFL Club
Carlton
Well Teague 2020 was not an improvement on Teague 2019 (compare apples with apples, the Bolton 11 games doesn't count). And 5 games into this year, can't see improvement either.
You are basing it off a half season in 2019, a full season in 2020, and 5 games this year, maybe some perspective is needed
 

thylacine60

Post-Human
Jun 4, 2006
106,512
188,301
Elwood FFS
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Insert Token EPL Club
This was not a 'they've got it in for us' rant. This is because, when they've brought pressure to bear in the past - with Ratts, with Malthouse, with Bolton - we've blinked. This is them doing it because they're in the interest of putting the fox in the henhouse, and seeing what happens next.

The perception is, negative press about Carlton sells, and sells much better than the self-same about Essendon or St Kilda.

Look at this board, and tell me that the majority of the posters having a good hard tantrum since the last game don't immediately respond to this stuff. Tell me that those who disagree - coming at it from the other side - don't also overreact, by publicly deriding the media and the pundits.

And I don't trust the club, precisely because they've blinked. If they were more capable of keeping the external criticism out and making what they think is the right choice - sans backroom pressure from the Mathisons et al - then I'd have more faith.
sells what?
 

Gethelred

Brownlow Medallist
May 1, 2016
17,735
35,832
AFL Club
Carlton
sells what?
Newspapers, ad revenue on TV, internet and radio. It creates and perpetuates careers.

I'm not blaming or casting aspersions at the media necessarily for doing their jobs; they pander or criticize each club differently. Collingwood being also-rans is good for business; Essendon being on the edge of contention or having the potential to be okay is good for business; Richmond used to be like us, and their negativity was good for business, but now it's glorification and other stuff.

The media panders. It does not matter to them who they're pandering to - whether to a supporter group or to the other supporter groups against a particular team - but they need to keep the story going.
 

Stamos

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 30, 2010
15,950
28,250
AFL Club
Carlton
I have a question.

Can you see improvement from 2019 to 2020?
No. We at best stagnated. Went from 6-5 to 7-10.
Last year was very disappointing. To some extent we can blame COVID, but it wasn’t a step forward.

And given that 18 was a write-off due to injuries, Bolton sabotaged 19 (which fortunately Teague was able to salvage), and then last year’s covid, we’re wasting time that we can’t afford. Improvement might not be linear, but it looks like we’re flatlining.
 

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