Analysis The Clarkson Rebuild Model - A Reason For Optimism

[grumbleguts]

View attachment 710691
Using analysis completed on the draftguru website, I have plotted the proportion of players drafted which produce an AA player. The analysis was completed using uneven-sized bands. You can see its more or less linear (negative) after the first 5 picks. But you are still talking less than 1 in 5 players drafted 6-10 become AA players. @Absai you will note that pick 15 has a higher probability of producing an AA than pick 9 based on historical precedence

That's an exponential decay curve.

 

[SuperSic]

Today I was reminded that in 2017 we traded pick 44 and Luke Hodge for pick 43 and 75. At the time I remember that most people (myself included) simply ignored the 1 pick upgrade and said we traded Hodge for pick 75. However the power of that single pick upgrade has proven to be enormous. That pick ended up being James Worpel, a kid who just won our b&f at 20 years old and is now one of the most important players on our list when looking to the future.

Recently I was listening to one of Marc McGowan’s “Trends” podcasts where he interviewed a guy named Cody Royle. It’s a really interesting interview about some research that Cody has compiled into a book about successful sporting organisations and what makes them so successful. One point he brings up is about Hawthorn and how we are always doing these quirky little pick swaps in our trades that most people see as pointless. However, he makes the point that these are not just an accident or Hawthorn being silly, these are very deliberate moves designed to greatly improve Hawthorn’s chance at success. The value of being able to pick even one pick earlier is extremely underrated, but it could mean the difference between picking James Worpel or Ben Paton. It could be one name higher on your draft list, the ability to match a f/s or academy bid versus falling short on points or even the difference between another team accepting a trade proposal or rejecting it. The significance of these outcomes shouldn’t be understated. We did the same type of pick swaps with both the Jordan Lewis and Sam Mitchell trades.

Most of you will probably find this irrelevant, but I found it extremely interesting especially considering the impact that the Hodge swap has since had on our club. It’s just another friendly reassurance that our great club knows what the f**k it’s doing.

 

[cryptor]

Today I was reminded that in 2017 we traded pick 44 and Luke Hodge for pick 43 and 75. At the time I remember that most people (myself included) simply ignored the 1 pick upgrade and said we traded Hodge for pick 75. However the power of that single pick upgrade has proven to be enormous. That pick ended up being James Worpel, a kid who just won our b&f at 20 years old and is now one of the most important players on our list when looking to the future.

Recently I was listening to one of Marc McGowan’s “Trends” podcasts where he interviewed a guy named Cody Royle. It’s a really interesting interview about some research that Cody has compiled into a book about successful sporting organisations and what makes them so successful. One point he brings up is about Hawthorn and how we are always doing these quirky little pick swaps in our trades that most people see as pointless. However, he makes the point that these are not just an accident or Hawthorn being silly, these are very deliberate moves designed to greatly improve Hawthorn’s chance at success. The value of being able to pick even one pick earlier is extremely underrated, but it could mean the difference between picking James Worpel or Ben Paton. It could be one name higher on your draft list, the ability to match a f/s or academy bid versus falling short on points or even the difference between another team accepting a trade proposal or rejecting it. The significance of these outcomes shouldn’t be understated. We did the same type of pick swaps with both the Jordan Lewis and Sam Mitchell trades.

Most of you will probably find this irrelevant, but I found it extremely interesting especially considering the impact that the Hodge swap has since had on our club. It’s just another friendly reassurance that our great club knows what the f**k it’s doing.

Good post. What I take from those kind of situations is that the club is forever pragmatic. Always looking to extract value, no matter how seemingly insignificant, from any situation.

It would have been easy to crack the shits over Hodge backflipping on retirement and refuse to help Brisbane out by doing a trade rather than hurting their FA compo by making them sign Hodge as a FA.

In either case Hodge was going to play at Brisbane. Doing the trade deal extracts some value from the situation and also aides the club’s reputation for being classy in dealings and putting player welfare highly.

It’s probably as close to a 1%er as you can get in trade period.

 

[Brishawk]

Today I was reminded that in 2017 we traded pick 44 and Luke Hodge for pick 43 and 75. At the time I remember that most people (myself included) simply ignored the 1 pick upgrade and said we traded Hodge for pick 75. However the power of that single pick upgrade has proven to be enormous. That pick ended up being James Worpel, a kid who just won our b&f at 20 years old and is now one of the most important players on our list when looking to the future.

Recently I was listening to one of Marc McGowan’s “Trends” podcasts where he interviewed a guy named Cody Royle. It’s a really interesting interview about some research that Cody has compiled into a book about successful sporting organisations and what makes them so successful. One point he brings up is about Hawthorn and how we are always doing these quirky little pick swaps in our trades that most people see as pointless. However, he makes the point that these are not just an accident or Hawthorn being silly, these are very deliberate moves designed to greatly improve Hawthorn’s chance at success. The value of being able to pick even one pick earlier is extremely underrated, but it could mean the difference between picking James Worpel or Ben Paton. It could be one name higher on your draft list, the ability to match a f/s or academy bid versus falling short on points or even the difference between another team accepting a trade proposal or rejecting it. The significance of these outcomes shouldn’t be understated. We did the same type of pick swaps with both the Jordan Lewis and Sam Mitchell trades.

Most of you will probably find this irrelevant, but I found it extremely interesting especially considering the impact that the Hodge swap has since had on our club. It’s just another friendly reassurance that our great club knows what the f**k it’s doing.

Great insight. Thanks for sharing

 

[Brant]

Good post. What I take from those kind of situations is that the club is forever pragmatic. Always looking to extract value, no matter how seemingly insignificant, from any situation.

It would have been easy to crack the s**ts over Hodge backflipping on retirement and refuse to help Brisbane out by doing a trade rather than hurting their FA compo by making them sign Hodge as a FA.

In either case Hodge was going to play at Brisbane. Doing the trade deal extracts some value from the situation and also aides the club’s reputation for being classy in dealings and putting player welfare highly.

It’s probably as close to a 1%er as you can get in trade period.

If it comes to pass that Birch does head to Brissie then I'd hope they send us Pick 52-54 (whatever) instead of taking him as an UFA; given that the Pick in the 50's would be their 5th (that they'll likely not use) & useless to them, but valuable to us.