Analysis The Clarkson Rebuild Model - A Reason For Optimism

grumbleguts

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 14, 2011
8,794
18,748
Tully FNQ
AFL Club
Hawthorn
View attachment 710691
Using analysis completed on the draftguru website, I have plotted the proportion of players drafted which produce an AA player. The analysis was completed using uneven-sized bands. You can see its more or less linear (negative) after the first 5 picks. But you are still talking less than 1 in 5 players drafted 6-10 become AA players. @Absai you will note that pick 15 has a higher probability of producing an AA than pick 9 based on historical precedence ;)
That's an exponential decay curve.
 

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