Analysis The Clarkson Rebuild Model - A Reason For Optimism

[MasterSamurai]

Yep - agreed.
And I'm not concerned because you can't replace those guys overnight and I think we've done a pretty bloody good job of it all, but need another couple of these guys to emerge from somewhere.

I think this current group can find their feet and write their own stories in time because they are not similar in any way to the group before them!
I remember Bob Murphy likening Hodge as the Marlon Brando of his generation which seemed s fantastic insight from a quality person/player who saw first hand of how brilliant in a cowboy/mafioso sort of way Hodge operates. You add Sam , Jordan, Gibbo, Cyril to that and you get one helluva ‘Mob’ that had the win at all stakes mentality in such a tough profession.
O’Meara, Mitchell, Wingard, Scully, Stratton, Smith, Shiels , Mcevoy and Gunston will grow as a group as they knock off some good teams and hopefully lead us to the promised land.
Also, our younger brigade seem quite tough and competitive as well , Worps, Morrison, Sicily and Howe don’t seem timid types.
But Hodge Mitchell Lewis belong in a different category altogether! Blessed, we were.

 

[libbylou]

The 2014 Grand Final was about the most perfect game I have seen Hawthorn play.

 

[Argy]

But Hodge Mitchell Lewis belong in a different category altogether! Blessed, we were.

I recently watched highlights of a 2006 game against the cats down at Geelong. Even back then, those guys showed what mongrel they had.

Interesting side note; We beat the Cats, who were finals contenders, by 52 points. At one stage one of the commentators said "Sign up Alistair Clarkson as of now!".

It's at the 13:10 mark.

 

[The BIG X]

I recently watched highlights of a 2006 game against the cats down at Geelong. Even back then, those guys showed what mongrel they had.

Interesting side note; We beat the Cats, who were finals contenders, by 52 points. At one stage one of the commentators said "Sign up Alistair Clarkson as of now!".

It's at the 13:10 mark.

Remember that game very well
Was that our last match at cat oval??

 

[moginie]

Remember that game very well
Was that our last match at cat oval??

Sure was.

 

[Pessimistic]

I recently watched highlights of a 2006 game against the cats down at Geelong. Even back then, those guys showed what mongrel they had.

Interesting side note; We beat the Cats, who were finals contenders, by 52 points. At one stage one of the commentators said "Sign up Alistair Clarkson as of now!".

It's at the 13:10 mark.

Willo and Hodge ate 11:50

 

[KermitJagger]

The 2014 Grand Final was about the most perfect game I have seen Hawthorn play.

I think in 2015, there were less important games that we played better in - but they weren't Grand Finals so 2014 takes the cake.

Particularly in 2015 there was a 3 match period where we obliterated Fremantle and Sydney who were premiership contenders and then handed Carlton their worst defeat (?) ever.

 

[crazywildhorse]

Campbell Brown’s Second goal (in the first quarter) was a perfect precursor to his GF goal

 

[MrPremiership]

The 2013-15 threepeat team will go down as one of the greatest of all time.

Tough task to rate the current crop to that.....never ever going to replace absolute champions like that. Could still win a flag or two, but never be champions like that.

 

[KermitJagger]

The 2013-15 threepeat team will go down as one of the greatest of all time.

Tough task to rate the current crop to that.....never ever going to replace absolute champions like that. Could still win a flag or two, but never be champions like that.

Our best players now would equal our best players of those years, where we'd fall down is the sheer evenness of the talent we had out on the field.

There wasn't a weakness.

 

[TylerDurden]

Our best players now would equal our best players of those years, where we'd fall down is the sheer evenness of the talent we had out on the field.

There wasn't a weakness.

Not sure.

Buddy and Rioli are once in a generation talents.

Hodge and Mitchell not far behind.

Lake one of the best key backs I’ve seen.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

I think in 2015, there were less important games that we played better in - but they weren't Grand Finals so 2014 takes the cake.

Particularly in 2015 there was a 3 match period where we obliterated Fremantle and Sydney who were premiership contenders and then handed Carlton their worst defeat (?) ever.

Yeah we flogged Fremantle (in Tassy) who were sitting clear on top, by 80.

Then we absolutely annihilated Sydney by >100 up in Sydney, which has to be one of our best ever performances.

Those two games showed that it was ours to lose, and that no one had a chance if we played our best. Great times.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

This thread has had a bit of a clean up.


Back on topic...

There’s already been a small portion of the AFL accredited media who have suggested that our 2018 result was Hawthorn “overachieving” or “playing above ourselves”.**

What they and others can’t contend with is that Clarkson has a very good record of getting consistent output from players later in the draft, so when they score the list and see that it’s full of players taken after pick 25 they quickly assert that Hawthorn don’t have much coming through.

What really threw a spanner in the works of people who think like that though is that Box Hill came from 7th to win a Premiership with a bunch of 1st and 2nd year picks(8 in total)....none of which came with any fanfare afforded to those taken in the first 18 picks.

Again, I’m talking about output from players that many either have no intentions to know about or those who they’ve written off because of either their draft position or their lack of development at another club.

Guerra is possibly the best example of Clarkson seeing a player who had the tools and getting them to perform consistently to their capability, and there’s been countless others(Puopolo, Henderson, Sicily, Hill, Gilham etc).

So when we pick up players like Minchington, Walker and Greaves we should have great faith that the HFC will turn a more than fair percentage of these players into genuine AFL players and perhaps even premiership ones, because we have seen it time and time again.

I’m more than optimistic after what I saw from a select few last season, I’m excited.


***which for those playing at home, is impossible. You either meet your physical capability or you don’t.

 

[Carl Spackler]

http://www.hawthornfc.com.au/news/2018-12-13/2019-coaching-line-up-revealed

The most interesting part of this article, IMO, is this development:

After four years as a line coach, Adem Yze will shift into the newly formed position of head of match day strategy & opposition.

From just the description it looks like this is a role similar to an offensive/defensive coordinator on an NFL coaching staff. Making the space for someone to fully consider match-day play on a team by team basis should provide an exciting lift in tactical play.

I assume it also means that Clarkson's role is evolving into a manager's position, similar to an NFL head coach.

This line of thinking brings this article from earlier in the year to mind:

http://www.hawthornfc.com.au/news/2018-02-05/back-to-school-for-clarko

Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson has continued his custom of traveling overseas to further his coaching development, currently attending a global coaching conference in America... The select group of eight coaches, which includes general manager of Team Sky cycling Sir David Brailsford and England international football manager Gareth Southgate, have also toured the facilities of the NBA’s Minnesota Timberwolves and the NFL’s Minnesota Vikings.

I think we're in for another revolution in footy. Coaching management (the last being advanced analytics and statistical modelling). And like the last, the Hawks will be at the vanguard of this as well.

 

[Pessimistic]

This thread has had a bit of a clean up.


Back on topic...

There’s already been a small portion of the AFL accredited media who have suggested that our 2018 result was Hawthorn “overachieving” or “playing above ourselves”.**

What they and others can’t contend with is that Clarkson has a very good record of getting consistent output from players later in the draft, so when they score the list and see that it’s full of players taken after pick 25 they quickly assert that Hawthorn don’t have much coming through.

What really threw a spanner in the works of people who think like that though is that Box Hill came from 7th to win a Premiership with a bunch of 1st and 2nd year picks(8 in total)....none of which came with any fanfare afforded to those taken in the first 18 picks.

Again, I’m talking about output from players that many either have no intentions to know about or those who they’ve written off because of either their draft position or their lack of development at another club.

Guerra is possibly the best example of Clarkson seeing a player who had the tools and getting them to perform consistently to their capability, and there’s been countless others(Puopolo, Henderson, Sicily, Hill, Gilham etc).

So when we pick up players like Minchington, Walker and Greaves we should have great faith that the HFC will turn a more than fair percentage of these players into genuine AFL players and perhaps even premiership ones, because we have seen it time and time again.

I’m more than optimistic after what I saw from a select few last season, I’m excited.


***which for those playing at home, is impossible. You either meet your physical capability or you don’t.

The other tack was we should have cashed in Bruest Gunston Smith etc and loaded up with youngsters in 2016 ‘while they still had trade currency’ funny thing is those guys came into AA contention a full two years later.
And we actually do have and have had early picks on our list. Wingard and Scully are added to Mitchell O’Meara.

 

[Pessimistic]

Its a slow day so I did an analysis for the last 11 seasons. In response to the various threads suggesting we are running down our trading/player stocks.

Its a pure figure based on which players played how many games, multiplied by the draft position for that player, divided by games, divided by 22

Its therefore an average of what hawthorn was able to put on the field purely by original draft pick. lower is obviously better.


Blue is the calculated factor (lhs), orange is ladder position (rhs)
If a team played all its games with players taken at draft pick 30, it would rate 30 on this lhs graph. by this measure, lower number is better

Since 2008, Hawthorns average draft pick per player has changed from 31.5 to 38, some 20%. but indeed the gradient 2008 to 2014 is much steeper than seems apparent now. This is during more successful years too

Hawthorns ladder position averages at #4, which is constantly 4 places worse than the average, and even sightly worse in 2010 and 2011 - compromised drafts.
To put a team on the park which has only 'deteriorated' by this measure by 5-7 places is remarkable, and suggests hawthorn aren't burning the meagre drafting hand they are being dealt.

Were Wingard to play every game, his value at 6 would lower the overall average by 1.7, or maintaining a flat gradient at around 36, which was close the figure in grand final years 2012, 13 and 15.

Are new players coming through though? we had 2 new in 2018, 7 in 2017 5 in 2016 6 in 2015 5 in 2014 7 in 2014 6 in 2013 2 in 2012 7 in 2011
I excluded such as Rucks Vickery, Fitzy, Grimley only playing a few games one season each
Notable departures with low draft picks were Croad 2009 Franklin and Ellis 2013 Hale 2015 Lewis 2016 and Hodge 2017

I have rated an early rookie draft at 80, a late rookie draft at 85, Mitchell 21 and O'Meara 18, probably too large figures really

Coming retirements? I'm guessing Burgoyne, Roughead, Frawley, McEvoy (whos still fronting up in time trials) will retire over a couple of seasons. Their average draft pick is #9 so were they to be replaced by 'average' players pick 36, the average goes up to about 40, which was the figure in 2014. and (assuming we are talking 2020, 8 'places' behind the figure in 2010, ten years earlier)

Another note. the lowest score here was in 2008. beyond the best 22, depth was very sparse. Maybe to have top of the table depth, you cant have as much talent in the best 22 (by this measure)

 

[Carl Spackler]

Its a slow day so I did an analysis for the last 11 seasons. In response to the various threads suggesting we are running down our trading/player stocks.

Its a pure figure based on which players played how many games, multiplied by the draft position for that player, divided by games, divided by 22

Its therefore an average of what hawthorn was able to put on the field purely by original draft pick. lower is obviously better.

View attachment 600212
Blue is the calculated factor (lhs), orange is ladder position (rhs)
If a team played all its games with players taken at draft pick 30, it would rate 30 on this lhs graph

Since 2008, Hawthorns average draft pick per player has changed from 31.5 to 38, some 20%. but indeed the gradient 2008 to 2014 is much steeper than seems apparent now. This is during more successful years too

Hawthorns ladder position averages at #4, which is constantly 4 places worse than the average, and even sightly worse in 2010 and 2011 - compromised drafts.
To put a team on the park which has only 'deteriorated' by this measure by 5-7 places is remarkable, and suggests hawthorn aren't burning the meagre drafting hand they are being dealt.

Were Wingard to play every game, his value at 6 would lower the overall average by 1.7, or maintaining a flat gradient at around 36, which was close the figure in grand final years 2012, 13 and 15.

Are new players coming through though? we had 2 new in 2018, 7 in 2017 5 in 2016 6 in 2015 5 in 2014 7 in 2014 6 in 2013 2 in 2012 7 in 2011
I excluded such as Rucks Vickery, Fitzy, Grimley only playing a few games one season each
Notable departures with low draft picks were Croad 2009 Franklin and Ellis 2013 Hale 2015 Lewis 2016 and Hodge 2017

I have rated an early rookie draft at 80, a late rookie draft at 85, Mitchell 21 and O'Meara 18, probably too large figures really

Thanks for the analysis. Can I clarify, is the orange bar the finishing ladder position? Does this mean you have the Hawks finishing 5th in 2018? A mistake on my reading of the chart?

And the blue bar is the average draft position? So we played the 2014 season with a team that averaged 40th in the draft? But just six years earlier the team average draft position was 31.5? So we backfilled early positions with late positions at a spectacular rate during the premiership run?

Assuming I'm reading the chart well-enough, and I think I am, then this really shows the death the individual hero-ball footy. The most successful run was sustained with role-players, either overlooked during the draft of traded in based on revealed (but not high draftable) strengths.

Very interesting data.

 

[Pessimistic]

Thanks for the analysis. Can I clarify, is the orange bar the finishing ladder position? Does this mean you have the Hawks finishing 5th in 2018? A mistake on my reading of the chart?

And the blue bar is the average draft position? So we played the 2014 season with a team that averaged 40th in the draft? But just six years earlier the team average draft position was 31.5? So we backfilled early positions with late positions at a spectacular rate during the premiership run?

Assuming I'm reading the chart well-enough, and I think I am, then this really shows the death the individual hero-ball footy. The most successful run was sustained with role-players, either overlooked during the draft of traded in based on revealed (but not high draftable) strengths.

Very interesting data.

Role players with enough quality players to keep the team dangerous. I'm guessing if the quality drops off too much, thats when the big slides happen.

Having said that, we don't know how good some quality players might have been if they didn't need to conform to roles too. Some of our players might have been rated more highly with more 'freedom'

PS I may have erred on the ladder position - guessing after the finals. We lost to 5th so I assumed we became 5th. Ladder position has no bearing on the other figures

 

[Carl Spackler]

Role players with enough quality players to keep the team dangerous. I'm guessing if the quality drops off too much, thats when the big slides happen.

Having said that, we don't know how good some quality players might have been if they didn't need to conform to roles too. Some of our players might have been rated more highly with more 'freedom'

PS I may have erred on the ladder position - guessing after the finals. We lost to 5th so I assumed we became 5th. Ladder position has no bearing on the other figures

Interestingly, the draft has been dramatically changing. Fewer players are being selected. To illustrate, year/number of players drafted:

2006/89
2007/75
2008/85
2009/95
2010/112 (GCS)
2011/96
2012/107 (GWS)
2013/97
2014/87
2015/70
2016/77
2017/78
2018/78

Despite the number of teams increasing, the number of players drafted is decreasing. Perhaps the abandonment of the development squads has something to do with this? But I think the larger point is that clubs recognise the lottery of the draft so are selecting more... selectively. With squads increasing the number of eggs they put in the selection basket, the greater the chances that some good eggs fall to the end of the draft, you would think.

 

[Pessimistic]

Interestingly, the draft has been dramatically changing. Fewer players are being selected. To illustrate, year/number of players drafted:

2006/89
2007/75
2008/85
2009/95
2010/112 (GCS)
2011/96
2012/107 (GWS)
2013/97
2014/87
2015/70
2016/77
2017/78
2018/78

Despite the number of teams increasing, the number of players drafted is decreasing. Perhaps the abandonment of the development squads has something to do with this? But I think the larger point is that clubs recognise the lottery of the draft so are selecting more... selectively. With squads increasing the number of eggs they put in the selection basket, the greater the chances that some good eggs fall to the end of the draft, you would think.

I thought the same, 2 new teams is 12%, and although the figures are distorted by more free rookie picks etc, but you have to say teams must be keeping players on lists longer. or more likely to give discards another chance. If less teams go the hard rebuild, bargains will be harder to come by (for other teams) too. eg Lake and McEvoy

 

[Carl Spackler]

I thought the same, 2 new teams is 12%, and although the figures are distorted by more free rookie picks etc, but you have to say teams must be keeping players on lists longer. or more likely to give discards another chance. If less teams go the hard rebuild, bargains will be harder to come by (for other teams) too. eg Lake and McEvoy

Perhaps another symptom of "system ball". It is cheaper/more successful to keep a fringe player and develop him into a role than it is to reload on the draft. And it certainly was apparent after the Lake/Gibson/Hale/McEvoy trades that letting good players go to good systems was missing out on value. Better to develop a better system yourself. Could also be why there is less coaching turnover lately.

One last interesting insight I wanted to highlight on your graph was that in 2008 the Hawks managed to have a list that averaged the top third of the draft. In 2014 and since they have averaged the average. You would think that it's impossible to sustain anything other than the average for long unless you have sustained poor or exceptional performance.

I know it's asking a lot but... would you be able to project somehow? maybe do a forward looking view of your average draft position assuming we stay in the top six? It's going to take a frightful hammering unless we can somehow continue to pull in Wingards and Scullys and Mitchells and JOMs.

 

[Pessimistic]

Perhaps another symptom of "system ball". It is cheaper/more successful to keep a fringe player and develop him into a role than it is to reload on the draft. And it certainly was apparent after the Lake/Gibson/Hale/McEvoy trades that letting good players go to good systems was missing out on value. Better to develop a better system yourself. Could also be why there is less coaching turnover lately.

One last interesting insight I wanted to highlight on your graph was that in 2008 the Hawks managed to have a list that averaged the top third of the draft. In 2014 and since they have averaged the average. You would think that it's impossible to sustain anything other than the average for long unless you have sustained poor or exceptional performance.

I know it's asking a lot but... would you be able to project somehow? maybe do a forward looking view of your average draft position assuming we stay in the top six? It's going to take a frightful hammering unless we can somehow continue to pull in Wingards and Scullys and Mitchells and JOMs.

Wingard is easily projected, and four retirements in two years. I did a projection of 40 by 2020 allowing for those, but I dont think retirements will be replaced by 'average' players, so not quite that high. After that Bruest, Stratton, Gunston smith were higher picks so not such a big influence.

Again stressing that this is also draft position position. Threepeaters Hill 33 Puopolo 60 Bruest (rookie) Stratton 46 Shiels 34 are outliers opposed to O'Rourke 2 or other low picks who never even got a game

 

[Carl Spackler]

Wingard is easily projected, and four retirements in two years. I did a projection of 40 by 2020 allowing for those, but I dont think retirements will be replaced by 'average' players, so not quite that high. After that Bruest, Stratton, Gunston smith were higher picks so not such a big influence.

Again stressing that this is also draft position position. Threepeaters Hill 33 Puopolo 60 Bruest (rookie) Stratton 46 Shiels 34 are outliers opposed to O'Rourke 2 or other low picks who never even got a game

I reckon Graham Wright has the most challenging job in the club. Very rewarding to get it right and hard as hell to do. Clarkson is a phenomenon, of course, but I reckon managing the football department is a killer. It would be the job I would love in a footy club. Besides kicking all the goals and getting all the chicks, of course.

 

[Luv_our_club]

Not sure.

Buddy and Rioli are once in a generation talents.

Hodge and Mitchell not far behind.

Lake one of the best key backs I’ve seen.

The 2013-15 players will always be underrated too.... even those people who recognise their elite status rarely appreciate how finals ready they were. Players like Lake, Hodge and Mitchell became finals footballers, like Dipper, Dunstall, Brereton.

It is perhaps an essential quality that only Hawthorn supporters are lucky enough to be able to wait to see develop and identify in their champions.

 

[DannyJ]

The 2013-15 players will always be underrated too.... even those people who recognise their elite status rarely appreciate how finals ready they were. Players like Lake, Hodge and Mitchell became finals footballers, like Dipper, Dunstall, Brereton.

It is perhaps an essential quality that only Hawthorn supporters are lucky enough to be able to wait to see develop and identify in their champions.

The 2013-2015 players were an accident of history according to bigfooty

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